idle thoughts - making the case for Jamie Collins

[patfanken]

I'm getting more and more attached to the Jamie Collins pick for the following reasons:

1. We all knew that any pick on the defensive side was more of a "luxury" pick. A pick to upgrade depth and overall talent. I think BB picked Collins over my personal binkie, Margus Hunt, because it was a rare opportunity to get the kind of impact athlete that the Pats RARELY get a chance to pick because they draft so low in every round.

2. If you go to NFL.com and check out Collins' measurables with Dion Jordan who went #3 to the Dolphins, the similarities are eerily similar and even slightly favor Collins. Both ran 4.6 forties. Both had 7 second 3 cones. Both had 4.3 shuttle times. Collins out jumped Jordan by a foot and a half in the broad jump, and by almost a foot in vertical jump. And while Jordan is 2 inches taller they both have the same arm length. So if you are looking at the "measurables" Collins is just as fast, quick and as strong as a guy who was picked 50 slots ahead of him, but proved to be more "explosive" as shown by the 2 drills designed to measure explosiveness.

3. Now here is where the comparison gets down right scary. Its one thing to compare how players do in the underwear olympics. But I'd like to see a comparison of what they did on the field. We know that last season Collins had 90 tackles, 20 for a loss, 10 sacks and 5 passes defended and a chart below that showed he had a just 3% miss rate on tackles, the best among all OLB's

4. I would love if a stats guy could find how Collins fares compared to Mingo and Jordan in just these 4 categories (tackles, tackles for loses, sacks and passed defended) I looked, but I couldn't find them (clearly I was looking in the wrong places) However I would be willing to bet that Collins fairs very well in an stats comparison with those 2

5. Comparing him to Mingo you see that they are also very similar, though Mingo ran a slightly faster 40 time (by 6/100's of a second) and a faster 3 cone time by a tenth of second. Though Collins had a slightly faster shuttle. Also Collins, like with Jordan, out jumped him by a foot and a foot and a half respectively in the VJ and BJ. Again like Jordan, Mingo is 3 inches taller, but all 3 have the same arm length.

In the following comparison, you see Collins compares very well with Mingo in his on field production. In fact BETTER than alright.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BF0YP-PCUAExs9D.png

6. A couple of other things to consider when you make these comparisons. Mingo and Jordan played on 2 of the top 5 programs in the country with the best players, coaching and facilities available. On the other hand, Collins, as widely reported....not so much.

Collins' 10 sacks and 5 passes defended are even more impressive when you consider that because their defense was SO bad, teams rarely had to throw the ball. In fact there were only 3 defenses in the entire country who were thrown against less.

7. Below are 2 more links to charts that show how Collins compares so favorably with the best OLB/DE prospects in the league. The first is from football outsiders, who discuss explosiveness as an indicator to predicting pass rush effectiveness. BTW - NO one had a higher explosiveness index higher than Collins. Not Mingo, or Jordan, or Anseh, or Jarvis Jones.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/sackseer-2013

The other is the chart that shows Collin's tackling efficiency. That 3% number I mentioned earlier that led all OLB prospects in this draft

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BFMily9CMAA5BBR.jpg:large.

8. Now here is a question you. If Collins was truly guilty of "quitting on is team". If he were truly lazy and taking off plays on a regular basis, how did he managed to put up numbers that were equal or better than the 2 top guys taken close to 50 spots before him; IMAGINE what he might accomplish if he was actually motivated to go all out and had good coaching.

Now the truth is that while he never truly quit on his team, he could very well have become victim to a really bad team with coaches to had "lost" those players That is NOT a good situation. I have been on a couple of BAD college football teams and know all too well how hard it is to keep motivated and playing at your best when all you do is lose. And we loved our coaches . I can't imagine how it would have been if we had hated them.

Bottom line, I just can't get my head around the claims of sloth by scouts and draft gurus, when I look at the productivity on the field. They just don't match a guy who "quit on his team. OTOH I almost hope its true, because if THAT's the kind of productivity he gets when he's disinterested, imagine what he can do when properly motivated and coached

9. OK now here's where I go out on a limb. Its a very long one and not very thick or sturdy, but I feel the necessity to do so anyway. I opine that 3 years down the road, Jamie Collins has an excellent chance to be JUST as effective a player as Dion Jordan and Barky Mingo. That 3 years from now we will look back at this draft and say with pride the Pats got the best OLB/DE in the draft.

10. Now here is the disclaimer. I understand that Collins is a raw talent in great need of pass rushing techniques to compete on this next level. I understand that he likely won't have the luxury that was afforded guys like Quinn and Irvin, to "just" rush the passer. Im sure he going to be asked to work in coverage as well. I understand he is not going to come out of the box fully assembled and formed

That being said I haven't been as sure that a draft pick would turn out to be something "special".since Mayo was drafted. I think BB feels the same way, because when it was time for the Pats to make that pick, they wasted no time getting it in. No last second discussions. No fielding trade calls. They knew who they wanted, even though at the time few of US did....and certainly not me.

BTW- Thanks to the original posters of those 3 charts from the Welcome Jamie Collins threads. Finds like those are beyond my research capabilities

 

[BelichickFan]

Regarding Hunt, don't sleep on Buchanan as a 7th round DE developmental DE that Hunt would have been. Buchanan beat him in 10 Yd split, 20 Yd shuttle, 3 Cone at the combine. Unfair as Hunt has 20 pounds extra on him but we can probably get the 7th round Buchanan to the practice squad for a year and he is a tremendous athlete with size and upside in his own right.

 

[JMC00]

I think my sig says it all for me.

 

[JMC00]

Regarding Hunt, don't sleep on Buchanan as a 7th round DE developmental DE that Hunt would have been. Buchanan beat him in 10 Yd split, 20 Yd shuttle, 3 Cone at the combine. Unfair as Hunt has 20 pounds extra on him but we can probably get the 7th round Buchanan to the practice squad for a year and he is a tremendous athlete with size and upside in his own right.

I think it will be Bequette that goes to the practice squad with Buchanan taken his spot.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

Good post. I think people often mistake success and impact for effort.

On a generally overmatched defensive front, Collins had blockers on him all the time, and often more than one of them. Its hard to look good in a team sport when the team isn't looking good. Just watched his Houston game on Youtube... those double teams wear you down. Keep him clean a bit and his "motor" will look a lot better because he'll simply be in a position to make plays.

If you want to worry about Collins, worry about his pass rushing technique and lack of violent/effective hand usage there. Don't worry about his motor.

 

[Off The Grid]

I'm getting more and more attached to the Jamie Collins pick for the following reasons:

1. We all knew that any pick on the defensive side was more of a "luxury" pick. A pick to upgrade depth and overall talent. I think BB picked Collins over my personal binkie, Margus Hunt, because it was a rare opportunity to get the kind of impact athlete that the Pats RARELY get a chance to pick because they draft so low in every round.

2. If you go to NFL.com and check out Collins' measurables with Dion Jordan who went #3 to the Dolphins, the similarities are eerily similar and even slightly favor Collins. Both ran 4.6 forties. Both had 7 second 3 cones. Both had 4.3 shuttle times. Collins out jumped Jordan by a foot and a half in the broad jump, and by almost a foot in vertical jump. And while Jordan is 2 inches taller they both have the same arm length. So if you are looking at the "measurables" Collins is just as fast, quick and as strong as a guy who was picked 50 slots ahead of him, but proved to be more "explosive" as shown by the 2 drills designed to measure explosiveness.

3. Now here is where the comparison gets down right scary. Its one thing to compare how players do in the underwear olympics. But I'd like to see a comparison of what they did on the field. We know that last season Collins had 90 tackles, 20 for a loss, 10 sacks and 5 passes defended and a chart below that showed he had a just 3% miss rate on tackles, the best among all OLB's

4. I would love if a stats guy could find how Collins fares compared to Mingo and Jordan in just these 4 categories (tackles, tackles for loses, sacks and passed defended) I looked, but I couldn't find them (clearly I was looking in the wrong places) However I would be willing to bet that Collins fairs very well in an stats comparison with those 2

5. Comparing him to Mingo you see that they are also very similar, though Mingo ran a slightly faster 40 time (by 6/100's of a second) and a faster 3 cone time by a tenth of second. Though Collins had a slightly faster shuttle. Also Collins, like with Jordan, out jumped him by a foot and a foot and a half respectively in the VJ and BJ. Again like Jordan, Mingo is 3 inches taller, but all 3 have the same arm length.

In the following comparison, you see Collins compares very well with Mingo in his on field production. In fact BETTER than alright.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BF0YP-PCUAExs9D.png

6. A couple of other things to consider when you make these comparisons. Mingo and Jordan played on 2 of the top 5 programs in the country with the best players, coaching and facilities available. On the other hand, Collins, as widely reported....not so much.

Collins' 10 sacks and 5 passes defended are even more impressive when you consider that because their defense was SO bad, teams rarely had to throw the ball. In fact there were only 3 defenses in the entire country who were thrown against less.

7. Below are 2 more links to charts that show how Collins compares so favorably with the best OLB/DE prospects in the league. The first is from football outsiders, who discuss explosiveness as an indicator to predicting pass rush effectiveness. BTW - NO one had a higher explosiveness index higher than Collins. Not Mingo, or Jordan, or Anseh, or Jarvis Jones.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | SackSEER 2013

The other is the chart that shows Collin's tackling efficiency. That 3% number I mentioned earlier that led all OLB prospects in this draft

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BFMily9CMAA5BBR.jpg:large.

8. Now here is a question you. If Collins was truly guilty of "quitting on is team". If he were truly lazy and taking off plays on a regular basis, how did he managed to put up numbers that were equal or better than the 2 top guys taken close to 50 spots before him; IMAGINE what he might accomplish if he was actually motivated to go all out and had good coaching.

Now the truth is that while he never truly quit on his team, he could very well have become victim to a really bad team with coaches to had "lost" those players That is NOT a good situation. I have been on a couple of BAD college football teams and know all too well how hard it is to keep motivated and playing at your best when all you do is lose. And we loved our coaches . I can't imagine how it would have been if we had hated them.

Bottom line, I just can't get my head around the claims of sloth by scouts and draft gurus, when I look at the productivity on the field. They just don't match a guy who "quit on his team. OTOH I almost hope its true, because if THAT's the kind of productivity he gets when he's disinterested, imagine what he can do when properly motivated and coached

9. OK now here's where I go out on a limb. Its a very long one and not very thick or sturdy, but I feel the necessity to do so anyway. I opine that 3 years down the road, Jamie Collins has an excellent chance to be JUST as effective a player as Dion Jordan and Barky Mingo. That 3 years from now we will look back at this draft and say with pride the Pats got the best OLB/DE in the draft.

10. Now here is the disclaimer. I understand that Collins is a raw talent in great need of pass rushing techniques to compete on this next level. I understand that he likely won't have the luxury that was afforded guys like Quinn and Irvin, to "just" rush the passer. Im sure he going to be asked to work in coverage as well. I understand he is not going to come out of the box fully assembled and formed

That being said I haven't been as sure that a draft pick would turn out to be something "special".since Mayo was drafted. I think BB feels the same way, because when it was time for the Pats to make that pick, they wasted no time getting it in. No last second discussions. No fielding trade calls. They knew who they wanted, even though at the time few of US did....and certainly not me.

BTW- Thanks to the original posters of those 3 charts from the Welcome Jamie Collins threads. Finds like those are beyond my research capabilities

Heh.

That is one of the most impressively elaborate bits of Rationalization that I've ever read.

 

[Brady2Moss]

What do you think the impact is of him playing in a smaller conference? The measurables all look good, maybe he just needs some seasoning and a slap on the ass to get motor running.

 

[MTM558]

The one question I have about Collins is where will he play? He played Safety, Linebacker, and Defensive End throughout his college career. He was drafted as a 'Linebacker' yet is listed as 'Defensive Line' on the Patriots website.

Given how he has shown to be pretty decent in coverage, I wonder if the Patriots will employ him in passing downs as a 'specialist' linebacker, perhaps replacing Spikes. He could be called upon to rush, or drop back into a zone.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

What do you think the impact is of him playing in a smaller conference? The measurables all look good, maybe he just needs some seasoning and a slap on the ass to get motor running.

The impact of playing in a smaller conference is that he was undervalued, because people can't distinguish between individual and team performance.

 

[Off The Grid]

The impact of playing in a smaller conference is that he was undervalued, because people can't distinguish between individual and team performance.

That is a ridiculously sweeping Generalization....:snob:

...One that I happen to agree with!!

 

[Don Kipines]

Collins looks like a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 Sam to me -- not a DE, more of a space player than a pure upfield rusher. And that may be a good role for him, a guy who can be both a volume tackler and a nickel rusher. He can definitely be a 4-down player. Kind of reminds me of Rosie Colvin role-wise with a little bit of Roman Phifer in him (you can see the defensive backfield body type), only he tests like DeMarcus Ware. Just a strange package.

Unlike Jermaine Cunningham, he's probably too good of an athlete not to be at least decent. If the light comes on for him, he could be a major asset. With Wilfork in the middle surrounded by Jones, Hightower, Mayo, Spikes, Collins, Armstead, that's a ton of power and athleticism up front.

 

[condon84]

Bookmarked for future references.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Bedard is not too thrilled with the collins pick.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

Collins looks like a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 Sam to me -- not a DE, more of a space player than a pure upfield rusher. And that may be a good role for him, a guy who can be both a volume tackler and a nickel rusher. He can definitely be a 4-down player. Kind of reminds me of Rosie Colvin role-wise with a little bit of Roman Phifer in him (you can see the defensive backfield body type), only he tests like DeMarcus Ware. Just a strange package.

Unlike Jermaine Cunningham, he's probably too good of an athlete not to be at least decent. If the light comes on for him, he could be a major asset. With Wilfork in the middle surrounded by Jones, Hightower, Mayo, Spikes, Collins, Armstead, that's a ton of power and athleticism up front.

Yep, 1st down he plays SAM, then on long 2nd downs and 3rd downs he rushes off the edge. That's the way you maximize his talents.

Right now its hard to see where all the pieces fit. Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Ninkovich, and Collins are not going to all be on the field together. Add Kelly, possibly Armstead, Francis with a soph leap into the mix, Love... hard to say what we'll see.

 

[Gumby]

I'm getting more and more attached to the Jamie Collins pick for the following reasons:

.......

9. OK now here's where I go out on a limb. Its a very long one and not very thick or sturdy, but I feel the necessity to do so anyway. I opine that 3 years down the road, Jamie Collins has an excellent chance to be JUST as effective a player as Dion Jordan and Barky Mingo. That 3 years from now we will look back at this draft and say with pride the Pats got the best OLB/DE in the draft.

.....
That being said I haven't been as sure that a draft pick would turn out to be something "special".since Mayo was drafted. I think BB feels the same way, because when it was time for the Pats to make that pick, they wasted no time getting it in. No last second discussions. No fielding trade calls. They knew who they wanted, even though at the time few of US did....and certainly not me.

BTW- Thanks to the original posters of those 3 charts from the Welcome Jamie Collins threads. Finds like those are beyond my research capabilities

Ken,
Nice post (as usual IMHO).

However, for #9, not sure you (in a general sense) are going out too far on a limb. EVERY YEAR there are guys who are Rd1 Busts. For example look at 2008 - Jesters and Gholston at #6 vs Pats w/ Mayo at #10. BIG BUST vs Pro-Bowler.

Look a little further at 2008- of the 31 Rd 1 picks - only 8 (25%) have been selected to the Probowl (at least once). While 8 is much >>> than the 2 (6%) pro-bowlers in Rd 3; it is still pretty significant that, looking at it INVERSELY - 6% of the Rd3 guys were MORE SUCCESSFUL (can you say better? - not sure ?) than 75% of Rd1.

In this specific case: who knows if you will be right. So many things can go wrong (injuries, $$ going to guys head, etc etc) But I like your argument to like the Collins pick. Certainly if he fails in NE w/ BB as a coach and the mentorship (patriot way) he can get from the other players here now; he wasnt likely to make it anywhere.

 

[patfanken]

Regarding Hunt, don't sleep on Buchanan as a 7th round DE developmental DE that Hunt would have been. Buchanan beat him in 10 Yd split, 20 Yd shuttle, 3 Cone at the combine. Unfair as Hunt has 20 pounds extra on him but we can probably get the 7th round Buchanan to the practice squad for a year and he is a tremendous athlete with size and upside in his own right.

Buchanan seemed like a real nice find in the 7th. Like I said in another thread, if we had pick Buchanan in the with #59 and Harman in the 7th all the drafniks would have thought we got good value with both picks. Go figure.

All that matters is they are here now, and in a few months we can see ourselves who they are.

 

[patfanken]

Heh.

That is one of the most impressively elaborate bits of Rationalization that I've ever read.

I'm getting the sense, Grid, that you don't agree. I would have hoped you would have offered something with more substance in rebuttal than a cute aside.

BTW- I have to say I'm a bit surprised, because Collins is exactly the kind of freakish athlete you usually champion. How come you're giving him the cold shoulder?

 

[patfanken]

The one question I have about Collins is where will he play? He played Safety, Linebacker, and Defensive End throughout his college career. He was drafted as a 'Linebacker' yet is listed as 'Defensive Line' on the Patriots website.

Given how he has shown to be pretty decent in coverage, I wonder if the Patriots will employ him in passing downs as a 'specialist' linebacker, perhaps replacing Spikes. He could be called upon to rush, or drop back into a zone.

I don't doubt that in specific packages he'll be could be used all over the field.

1. As an in the box S who would cover the TE from the underneath position.
2. As an OLB in both the 3-4 and 4-3, especially the 4-3 working in tandem with the DE in pass rush schemes
3. As a DE as a straight out outside speed pass rusher.
4 As you mentioned, as a straight coverage LB replacing Spikes on a passing down, with an occasional blitz from up the middle.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I'm getting the sense, Grid, that you don't agree. I would have hoped you would have offered something with more substance in rebuttal than a cute aside.

BTW- I have to say I'm a bit surprised, because Collins is exactly the kind of freakish athlete you usually champion. How come you're giving him the cold shoulder?

I think he's bought into the 'he quit on his team' mantra that a lot of posters on this site are putting forth as some kind of indictment on Collins' character.

Personally, I don't believe it. If BB thought this kid was a quitter there's no way he's donning a Patriots uniform. I think the stories and 'character assassinations' on the kid are overblown. He was in a bad situation but made the most of it. The kid improved his numbers every year in college. There's not much more you can ask than that. One player can't turn around an entire team.

I'm willing to give Collins a chance. His athleticism is certainly through the roof, and he has the versatile skillset to be an asset for our team. Let's see how he responds through minicamp, training camp, etc. Collins might be seen as a steal, the way Gronk is now seen, just a couple of years from now.

 

[patfanken]

Collins looks like a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 Sam to me -- not a DE, more of a space player than a pure upfield rusher. And that may be a good role for him, a guy who can be both a volume tackler and a nickel rusher. He can definitely be a 4-down player. Kind of reminds me of Rosie Colvin role-wise with a little bit of Roman Phifer in him (you can see the defensive backfield body type), only he tests like DeMarcus Ware. Just a strange package.

Unlike Jermaine Cunningham, he's probably too good of an athlete not to be at least decent. If the light comes on for him, he could be a major asset. With Wilfork in the middle surrounded by Jones, Hightower, Mayo, Spikes, Collins, Armstead, that's a ton of power and athleticism up front.

I don't disagree but I could seen him being used as a straight pass rushing DE using a straight outside rush working in tandem with a DT. The Niners had a lot of success with a blitz using the DT to hold the G (rarely called) and ASmith coming around from the outside and using his great speed to come up the middle