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Predict Patrots 2010 record


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The fools who preach the "5th in Points Allowed" gospel need to read this; maybe, just maybe, they'll begin to understand.

This is not a 5th, or 10th, or even 15th-caliber defense. Period.

OK.
So tell me about how those more than 10 defenses that allowed more points were better.
Specifically which teams did what things better than were more important than the score of the game.

And by the way, they were 5th in points, so I don't understand why stating that fact makes someone a fool???
 
The fools who preach the "5th in Points Allowed" gospel need to read this; maybe, just maybe, they'll begin to understand.

This is not a 5th, or 10th, or even 15th-caliber defense. Period.

OK so 14th and 15th were Arizona and Atlanta, who both allowed 40 more points that we did.
Since we were not even 15th best, give me all the reasons these teams were better while allowing more points. Go............
 
I'm going to say another good not great year. 10-6 which i am pretty happy with because of the schedule we have. I say we win one playoff game but thats as far as i am willing to go
 
If NFL.com didn't wreck havoc with this piece of crap computer of mine, I would go there to see if it still had 2009's defensive stats available; because as good as Points Allowed looks, that's how mediocre 3rd-Down %, Sacks per Pass Attempt, RZ %, etc. look also.

You just can't trumpet one statistc while ignoring others that contradict your position.

Except for the 2-week period in which they hosted the confused, disorganized Titans in an October blizzard, and the "road game" in London vs. a terrible Tampa team; and the 3 weeks in December vs. offensive jugger-nots Carolina, Jax & Buffalo who were all just waiting for the season to end, this defense did not dominate like a 5th-ranked defense should be expected to dominate.

Put down the stat sheet and take a cold, honest look at what we have here, and it should scare you.
 
You may want to try reading my posts. I'm using points on top of offensive competition to make my point. You keep sticking with points while ignoring the fact that we faced some VERY sub-par offensive competition. It's really that simple, Andy. But for argument's sake, and since we already saw how badly our defense fared against better competition, let's take a look at the other offenses we faced last year...

Week; Team; (Offensive Rank)
1. Buffalo (30th) - We allowed 24 points to the Bills, allowed Trent Edwards to go 15/25 for 212 yards and 2 TD's. Not exactly what you would want to see our defense doing against a sub-par quarterback leading a sub-par offense as we only forced Edwards into 10 incompletions.

2. Jets (20th) - Pretty decent game against another sub-par offense. We only allowed 16 points which looks like a good outing and, to be honest, we lost this game because of our offense. However, my previous assertion (that the run defense was not very good last year) stands out here still as we allowed the Jets a total of 119 yards on the ground in spite of the fact that we knew they were going to be run-heavy going into the game.

3. Falcons (16th) - Only allowed 10 points here. Pretty decent outing by the defense again but this game was a product of the Falcons playing poorly on both sides of the ball.

4. Ravens (13th) - This was probably our first true test of the season and while we only allowed 21 points, it could have (and should have if you ask Ravens fans) easily been 28-30+. We allowed 264 yards through the air but the most alarming stat was that we allowed Ray Rice to rumble for 103 yards on just 11 carries. Once again, points allowed isn't the end all, be all for this defense. They did not play like a top 5 defense in this game either and, sadly, this game would serve as a warning for what would happen later on in the season.

5. Broncos (15th) - This was really the first clue that something was off about this defense and that they weren't as good as they looked early on in the season. Even though they only allowed 20 points, they let Orton have whatever he wanted through the air. He had a career day against our defense (CAREER day) and only missed on 13 passes despite throwing 48 of them. The defense got absolutely picked apart by competition that wasn't even top shelf. On top of that, they once again allowed the opposing running game to have an good day. The Broncos offense put up 430 yards of total offense against our "5th best defense in the league". In the red zone (an important stat since our defense is supposed to bend, but not break), the Broncos were two for three for two TD's.

6. Tennessee (12th) - If any game shouldn't count because a team didn't show up, it's this game. The Titans simply did not show up to play at all. They quit from the moment they got into the snow and, not to mention, Kerry Collins was still their quarterback. EVEN THEN, though, we still allowed Chris Johnson over 100 yards on the ground. Funny because we knew it was coming but still couldn't stop it. This game, a farce for Tennessee, is one of the main reasons for our #5 ranking.

7. Tampa Bay (28th) - What else is new? This was the story of our defense in 2009. Pick on the Little Sisters of the Poor. Tampa Bay was just horrible all the way around last season so I guess we did what we should have here.

9. Miami (17) - Good win here. But it should have been. Henne was a new starting quarterback with limited weapons around him yet still threw for almost 220 yards for 1 TD. Once again, we couldn't stop the run to save our lives. The Brown/White/Williams trio rushed for a grand total of 133 yards against us. Miami also shot themselves in the foot a good amount of this game on offense as well as defense. But make no mistake, this was a very winnable game for them.

10. Indy (9) - As has already been explained, we got torched. Just like we did against every other top ten defense we played.

11. Jets (20th) - The Jets vaunted 20th ranked offense came into town and our defense quickly took advantage of the second worst starting QB in the league last year, which they should have. Even though we demolished Sanchez, we still allowed Thomas Jones 103 yards on the ground. Once again we got chewed up by the run even though we knew it was coming.

12. Saints (1) - I believe this was the first time in the Belichick era that we allowed 5 TD's through the air to a single quarterback. Brees ate this defense for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. We also allowed their running game over 100 yards on the ground. Look at what teams like the Jets did to this offense. Hell, even the Dolphins fared better. Against our defense, the Saints' racked up 465 yards in total offense. Top 5 defenses are supposed to play better against offensive competition like this.

13. Dolphins (17) - While you'll miss the point and undoubtedly point to points allowed here, I'll point to that on top of what else happened. Top 5 defenses are supposed to allow Chad Henne, Devone Bess, and Brian Hartline to put up huge days. Henne, in particular, looked like Montana at times there and threw for 355 yards and 2 TD's. He completely picked us apart. On the bright side, we only allowed the Dolphins' running game 88 yards. But when Chad Henne throws for 355 yards against you, allowing 88 yards on the ground looks like a minor accomplishment to say the least.

I'm going to stop there because I think I made my point. In case you're interested, the defense once again beat up on the Little Sisters of the Poor for three weeks straight before being torched by Houston again. Even then, they still allowed the Panthers (19) and Bills (30) to run for over 100 yards while holding the Jaguars (18) to a more modest amount of 98. You see, my point stands. This team did not play a lot of quality offensive competition. That's why their ranked is skewed. Top five defenses hold their opponents to under 100 yards on the ground more often than they don't. Top five defenses don't allow passing offenses the calibur of the Dolphins and the Broncos to have career days against them. Top five defenses do what they're supposed to against lesser offensive teams and still show up against the big dogs. While we were able to pick on the lesser offensive teams, we still didn't show up against the big dogs. So if you want to throw out the Houston game than be my guest. You should know that it only hurts your argument more than it helps it. On top of that if you're going to throw out the Houston game then you should also throw out the Tennessee game.


While i see your point and it's a well researched post. My problem is your analysis to suit your own opinion. Everytime the defense did well you say " well that doesn't count they should have done well" and every time the defense does poorly you say "the defense should have stood up but it didn't". i mean we had a good game defensively against the falcons but you chalk it up to them not playing well not us stopping them from playing well.

i just think this is a very pessimistic way to view the defense. I think in reality we weren't a top 5 defense but anyone who says we were are kidding themselves. But i don't think it's as bad as your making it out to be either.
 
The Patriots were 12th in 3rd down percentage. Two teams above them (Raiders and Dolphins) averaged 5.9 and 6.6 points per game more. Six other teams were within 3.3 PPG and three had a better PPG.

The Patriots were 22nd in Sacks/Attempt, but I can't see how that's the mark of a good defense, considering that the Dolphins, Raiders, and Browns are 3 of the top 7 teams and all allowed at least 5.6 PPG more.

As for red zone defense, NFL.com doesn't have that stat anywhere that I could find quickly, but I do remember seeing somewhere (probably Reiss) that the Patriots allowed a TD every time the opponent had first and goal within the five. Remember when that was one of the defense's strong points?
 
I expect losses early in the season, and will go along with the midseason loss to Indy, but I think we'll beat the Packers and have a nice long string of wins to end the season.

11-5
 
Pats will go 9-7 and finish third in the East.

Jets 11-5
Dolphins 10-6
Patriots 9-7

Exactly the sort of douchebaggery we've come to expect from the Jets and their fans. Try not to back into anybody today.
 
I dont know the exact numbers but I believe we were something like 66-1 under BB when leading after 3 quarters before last year, and we lost 4 times when leading after 3 quarters last year.
I don't know how you post changes the fact that we lost leads that we historically never did.

I'll accept your stats (but am interested enough now to check them out when I have a spare hour), but I was trying to get at the reason. It's not like the whole team got into the Fourth Quarter going strong and then wilted under the pressure or melted down (except, again, for the Miami game, which I chalk up to accumulated fatigue from the beatdown in NO the week before). It was a consistent failure to deliver for most of the second half.

To me it wasn't on the D, which you have amply and correctly pointed out held its own or more last year, even if it didn't bring the killer instinct of the 2004 team.

The difference in Offensive Production in the second half is stark, but it didn't start in the fourth quarter. My only beef is with the talk of "fourth quarter meltdowns" and "not being able to finish." If we melted down at all, it was on Offense in the second half and if we didn't finish, it started at the KO in the third quarter.
 
I'll be optimistic and say 12-4, good enough for the second seed.

As for the defensive rankings, I don't think the previous year is very much indicative of this year. Take a look of the defensive rankings of NE over the past decade according to FootballOutisders:

00-21st
01-13th
02-14th
03-2nd
04-6th
05-27th
06-7th
07-12th
08-21st
09-16th

The reality is that the team doesn't need a top 5 defense to be competitive or even win superbowls. The list also shows that the defense can make dramatic changes from year to year with little signs of improvement. Nobody predicted the jump from 00 to 01. Nobody predicted the jump from 02 to 03. That is not to say that such a jump will happen this year but I have enough faith in BB that I believe it to be a possibility. He's done it before with less.
 
If NFL.com didn't wreck havoc with this piece of crap computer of mine, I would go there to see if it still had 2009's defensive stats available; because as good as Points Allowed looks, that's how mediocre 3rd-Down %, Sacks per Pass Attempt, RZ %, etc. look also.

You just can't trumpet one statistc while ignoring others that contradict your position.

Except for the 2-week period in which they hosted the confused, disorganized Titans in an October blizzard, and the "road game" in London vs. a terrible Tampa team; and the 3 weeks in December vs. offensive jugger-nots Carolina, Jax & Buffalo who were all just waiting for the season to end, this defense did not dominate like a 5th-ranked defense should be expected to dominate.

Put down the stat sheet and take a cold, honest look at what we have here, and it should scare you.
They were above average in 3rd down defense by the way.
So with the Patriots games against teams that arent super are meaningless while they count for everyone else?

I am not relying on stats. I am looking at the actual result of how many points the team allowed. You seem to want to adjust that for the other stats that are part of it, somehow thinkng that the way you stop or dont stop a team is more important that whether you stop them or dont.

Show me the teams that allowed more points than us but didnt play any games against bad teams and you might have an argument.
 
I'll be optimistic and say 12-4, good enough for the second seed.

As for the defensive rankings, I don't think the previous year is very much indicative of this year. Take a look of the defensive rankings of NE over the past decade according to FootballOutisders:

00-21st
01-13th
02-14th
03-2nd
04-6th
05-27th
06-7th
07-12th
08-21st
09-16th

The reality is that the team doesn't need a top 5 defense to be competitive or even win superbowls. The list also shows that the defense can make dramatic changes from year to year with little signs of improvement. Nobody predicted the jump from 00 to 01. Nobody predicted the jump from 02 to 03. That is not to say that such a jump will happen this year but I have enough faith in BB that I believe it to be a possibility. He's done it before with less.
It depends on how you define 'top 5 defense'. I think we have a better chance to win if our defense allows the 5th fewest points but is rated lower is some type of statistical formula weighting the facotrs that lead to allowing points, than if we do great at getting the stats that go into that formula but allow a lot of points. Somehow it seems there are a lot of fans who are more interested in style points.
 
Even with their aweful rating system, our top two defenses in the past 10 years were "coincidently" Super Bowl winners.

I'm with Andy though, style points don't count for much. A "bend but don't break" defense isn't structured to win stat wars. It is structured to allow as dew points as possible and win football games.

I'll be optimistic and say 12-4, good enough for the second seed.

As for the defensive rankings, I don't think the previous year is very much indicative of this year. Take a look of the defensive rankings of NE over the past decade according to FootballOutisders:

00-21st
01-13th
02-14th
03-2nd
04-6th
05-27th
06-7th
07-12th
08-21st
09-16th

The reality is that the team doesn't need a top 5 defense to be competitive or even win superbowls. The list also shows that the defense can make dramatic changes from year to year with little signs of improvement. Nobody predicted the jump from 00 to 01. Nobody predicted the jump from 02 to 03. That is not to say that such a jump will happen this year but I have enough faith in BB that I believe it to be a possibility. He's done it before with less.
 
Even with their aweful rating system, our top two defenses in the past 10 years were "coincidently" Super Bowl winners.

I'm with Andy though, style points don't count for much. A "bend but don't break" defense isn't structured to win stat wars. It is structured to allow as dew points as possible and win football games.

Am example is BBs penchant for giving young/weak QBs the opportunity to see if they can beat us. They put up better stats against us because we take everything else away, and force them to rely on beating us with that young QB, which ultimatley they fail to do. Yet, Pats fans bemoan how many yards weak QBs pass for against us when we win the game.
I imagine that statistically we would be better if we tried to embarrass the weak QB but then we wouldnt be taking away strength and winning as often. Feel free though, anyone, to lambast this opinion by showing our record over the years against 'weak' QBs. In keeping with the idea that anecdotal stories dont add up to facts, citing an example or two is pointless, you would need to look at the overall success rate, compared to those teams overall success rates.
 
Am example is BBs penchant for giving young/weak QBs the opportunity to see if they can beat us. They put up better stats against us because we take everything else away, and force them to rely on beating us with that young QB, which ultimatley they fail to do. Yet, Pats fans bemoan how many yards weak QBs pass for against us when we win the game.
I imagine that statistically we would be better if we tried to embarrass the weak QB but then we wouldnt be taking away strength and winning as often. Feel free though, anyone, to lambast this opinion by showing our record over the years against 'weak' QBs. In keeping with the idea that anecdotal stories dont add up to facts, citing an example or two is pointless, you would need to look at the overall success rate, compared to those teams overall success rates.

Well I should HOPE the Pats have a good record against weak QB's. :eek: I should hope ANY above average team does.
 
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Well I should HOPE the Pats have a good record against weak QB's. :eek: I should hope ANY above average team does.
Please learn to read and understand or go away.
 
11-5 with losses including in Miami as well as to the Packers at home
 
It depends on how you define 'top 5 defense'. I think we have a better chance to win if our defense allows the 5th fewest points but is rated lower is some type of statistical formula weighting the facotrs that lead to allowing points, than if we do great at getting the stats that go into that formula but allow a lot of points. Somehow it seems there are a lot of fans who are more interested in style points.

So you think it is more impressive to hold Mark Sanchez and the Jets to 7 points than Peyton Manning and the Colts to 10?

Its not about style points. Its about understanding what the stats really mean. Most of the time they don't have great predictive value as football is mainly about matchups but there is some. They have even less value from year to year.
 
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