Interesting stat and trivia question re: Brady's streak

I wrote a program (in R) to answer hambone1818's question:

TB.runs <- function(m)
{
sapply(1:m, function(o)
{
y <- rle(rbinom(4694, 1, .018))
ifelse(max(y$lengths[y$values==0])>= 319, 1, 0)
})
}
mean(TB.runs(50000))

Under all the assumptions established (i.e., 1.8% interception rate, independence, etc.), there is approximately a 22.13% chance that Tom Brady will throw 319+ interceptionless passes in a row over the course of a 4,694 pass career.

Rainy-Day Patriot said:

I wrote a program (in R) to answer hambone1818's question:

TB.runs <- function(m)
{
sapply(1:m, function(o)
{
y <- rle(rbinom(4694, 1, .018))
ifelse(max(y$lengths[y$values==0])>= 319, 1, 0)
})
}
mean(TB.runs(50000))

Under all the assumptions established (i.e., 1.8% interception rate, independence, etc.), there is approximately a 22.13% chance that Tom Brady will throw 319+ interceptionless passes in a row over the course of a 4,694 pass career.

Click to expand...

Fantastic! I have no idea what all those strange words and numbers mean but that's awesome. So he basically had a 1-in-5 chance of doing what he's just done at this point in career, good to know...and thanks for being a stat nerd, I'm happy PatsFans has a few available when needed!

Krugman said:

Good post,RW.I recall that year many(myself included)noted that Brady was ahead of Huard on the depth chart,and that was a surprise.Many on the board speculated that Brady had the situational awareness and ability to make quick reads of the defence which Bledsoe lacked.I was curious as to the process by which that was determined,other than training camp scrimmages.

Click to expand...

There was another story (Patriots Reign??) of a free agentveteran coming into the NE weight room for the first time during the 2001 pre-season and hearing Brady talk to the defense about reading defenses and masking them. The veteran is reported to have said something like, "if this is how smart the backup QB is , I can just imagine how sharp the starter is." Little did he know that Brady would be the starter soon enough. If I can find the link, I'll post it.

Ha, all these calculations are at this moment in time pure projection, the run has not as of yet been concluded at 319 and all these calculations will need to be done again when the actual number is definite!!

For what it's worth, here's my results for several different quarterbacks, using a quick Python script, and using interception rates for 2007-2010:

T. Brady (1.53%): 40.65%
P. Manning (2.58%): 2.79%
D. Brees (2.76%): 1.59%
E. Manning (3.55%): 0.15%
M. Sanchez (3.78%): 0.09%

What's remarkable is how quickly the percentages fall off: even Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, who aren't exactly known as INT fiends, are 15 to 25 times less likely to match Brady's accomplishment.

And, yes, in principle, Mark Sanchez could match this feat, but I certainly wouldn't want to bet my house on it.