Trying to Understand the Ryan Mallet pick

I posted this in another forum...thought it might be worth sharing here...

This is not an exact parallel (there aren't many exact parallels when you're talking about a lock HOF QB like Brady), but consider these two situations...

(1) Green Bay. In 2004, the Packers went 10-6 and won their division. 35-year old HOF QB Brett Favre had a big year: 4088 yds, 64.1% completions, 30 td. Clearly he was no longer a spring chicken, but he was obviously still an excellent NFL QB. That following draft (2005), they pick Aaron Rodgers in the 1st round with the 24th overall pick. Favre stays in Green Bay for 3 more seasons, declining in 2005 and 2006 before rebounding with a really good 2007 season (4155 yds, 66.5% completions, 28 td). Rodgers, meanwhile, accumulates a total of 59 passing attempts during those last 3 seasons Favre is in Green Bay. Finally, in 2008, after the Packers went to the NFC Championship Game, Favre leaves and Rodgers becomes the man. Three years later, he leads the Packers to a SB title and is considered to be one of the best QB in the league.

(2) San Francisco. Steve Young's NFL career (after a brief time in the USFL) gets off to a rocky start with Tampa Bay, as he puts up two seasons' worth of a whole lot of not much. But the 49ers acquire him before the 1987 season to be Joe Montana's backup. Montana is tremendous from 1987-1990, leading the 49ers to a 51-14 record, four playoff appearances, and two SB titles. Young spells Montana from time to time as Montana suffers injuries here and there, and Young plays well in those moments. Montana then gets hurt in 1991 and Young, at age 30, becomes the primary QB. Over the next few years, after Montana moves on to Kansas City, Young emerges as one of the best QB in the league, leading SF to the SB title in 1994. He ends up going to the Hall of Fame himself.

So two of the greatest QB of all time, Brett Favre and Joe Montana, ended up leaving the teams where their legacy was created, and those teams had prepared replacements for them....you know, just in case. And both those teams spent significant currency (for GB, a #1 draft pick; for SF, the trade cost them a 2nd and 4th round picks to get Young) preparing for the day when they would need to replace their HOF QB.

The Patriots have a HOF QB that is now 34 years of age. Like Montana and Favre, their HOF QB is playing at a very, very high level (obviously), so it seems like the days of the inevitable decline are a long ways off. But they just had the opportunity to take a supremely talented QB (rated by many to be the most talented QB in this draft) that has an outstanding football mind, to play the role of Steve Young or Aaron Rodgers. And all it would cost them was a single 3rd round pick. Not a 1st round pick. Not a 2nd and a 4th. But a single 3rd round pick. Talents like Mallet's don't come around for that price too often, and it was just too good a deal to pass up (no pun intended).

Mallet has the talent to not only emerge as a legitimately good NFL starting QB in due time; he has the talent to be a very useful QB in the immediate future, should Brady suffer an injury. Perhaps in years past Brady would still play despite being very banged up because the other options were, um, less palatable. But if Mallet is really that talented, maybe Brady could miss a game or two a year and the team wouldn't miss too much, because Mallet would have the skill to lead the team to a win anyway. And that might allow Brady to be less banged up for the playoffs, and a fresh and rested Brady is better than a beaten and banged up Brady.

So while the situations aren't exactly analogous, they're similar enough to illustrate the point that this probably will turn out to be a really good and shrewd move by the Patriots for 2011 and beyond.

The Colts should have draft Mallet and they didn't.

He's a huge value where they picked him. I'm glad they did.

if it works it works, if it doesn't it doesn't. but they aren't paying much for him and its worth the risk in the 3rd round.

Mallet was the highest rated QB on that pats draftboard and was still sitting there near the end of the 3rd round. They got great value with the pick, and whether he gets traded down the road or ends up being Brady's successor, its a Bill pick through and through.

I was gonna explain it to you but that was tl;dr

eom said:

I was gonna explain it to you but that was tl;dr

Click to expand...

What the heck does "tl;dr" mean?

Wonder if he'll be able to beat out Hoyer, who I think is pretty good.

Another reason to draft him. You might be able to flip him for a much higher pick in 2 years. He has to keep his nose clean(literally) and learn a pro system and work on his mechanics. The 2012 is a great qb draft. Luck, Barkley, Landrey Jones, Nick Foles. But, the 2013 not shaping up too good. We might be able to flip him for a first if Brady is still going strong and Ryan is getting antzy to play.

Unless Brady's skills fall off, I do not expect to see Mallet start at QB for the Patriots. I expect he'll be traded before then just as Brady begins experiencing deterioration, maybe around 38 or so. Brady works really hard, and you couple that with Belichick's conservative nature in terms of what he expects from someone running the offense (he was reluctant to pull Bledsoe for Brady for precisely this reason, and once he went with Brady he pulled back the reins on the offense).

The only wildcard in this scenario is that we don't know how badly Belichick wants to prove he can win without Brady.

ivanvamp said:

What the heck does "tl;dr" mean?

Click to expand...

It means "Too long, didn't read" in internet jargon.

Timbo717 said:

It means "Too long, didn't read" in internet jargon.

Click to expand...

Oh thanks. I'm not too up to speed on internet jargon.

Mallett is not a replacement for Brady but a replacement for Hoyer. I wanted a lower round project type like McElroy because those are the types we are good at improving and flipping. Mallett might turn into a malcontent and be simply cut just like OC was. I think a 3rd round pick is too high for a backup QB on THIS team, on any other team not so much. TB is so much better than the #2 that if he goes down again he will take our season with him. Mallett or no Mallett.

jeffbiologist said:

Mallett is not a replacement for Brady but a replacement for Hoyer. I wanted a lower round project type like McElroy because those are the types we are good at improving and flipping. Mallett might turn into a malcontent and be simply cut just like OC was. I think a 3rd round pick is too high for a backup QB on THIS team, on any other team not so much. TB is so much better than the #2 that if he goes down again he will take our season with him. Mallett or no Mallett.

Click to expand...

How many games did we win the last time brady went down?,,

We said the same thing about O'Connel when he was drafted. Everyone (including myself) was designating him as the next Steve Young.

That did pan out, but it didn't matter anyway because Brady still had several years ahead of him. In this case, Mallet was a higher rated QB O'Connel was, and the fact Brady only has 3 years left on his contract, it will give the Pats 2 viable options to choose from in that time. I hope that motivates Brady even more.

Honestly, if you were scared about Brady going down the last 2 years without a experienced backup then you are a lot stronger then me

upstater1 said:

Unless Brady's skills fall off, I do not expect to see Mallet start at QB for the Patriots. I expect he'll be traded before then just as Brady begins experiencing deterioration, maybe around 38 or so. Brady works really hard, and you couple that with Belichick's conservative nature in terms of what he expects from someone running the offense (he was reluctant to pull Bledsoe for Brady for precisely this reason, and once he went with Brady he pulled back the reins on the offense).

The only wildcard in this scenario is that we don't know how badly Belichick wants to prove he can win without Brady.

Click to expand...

I think that while we missed that wildcard in 2008 BB has already proven the system can win without Brady in the short run. I don't think he personally looses sleep over winning it all without him in the long run because he realizes a lot more goes into that then he and/or Brady. I don't think Bill intends to coach at this level for another decade, either. That's a bit of hyperbole even when Brady utters it. I think they will both be here another several seasons. Bill's goal here extends beyond locating replacement HOF QB's. It is to create a system that is largely self sustainable, which is why I wouldn't anticipate ever seeing Mallett starting in it. What Bill wants in the QB position is a cerebral, poised, thoughtful, coachable, accurate, consistently good decision maker who can make all the throws but doesn't care how they score as long as they score more than the opposition and who is both patient enough to take what the defense gives him without foolishly giving them back more yet confident in his ability to do whatever it takes to accomplish the ultimate goal.

Mallet is tall and has a rocket arm. I know he's good on the board, but lots of guys we've drafted have been only to find it didn't amount to any in game advantage because they couldn't consistently diagnose or perform under pressure on the field at NFL game speed vs. NFL caliber competition and disguise.

Mallett is the same thing KOC was. A value pick with the potential to both serve a purpose here and create a dividend down the line. But before he can do either he has to prove he can at least back up Hoyer if not make him expendable.

I don't get the O'Connell --> Mallet comparison. At no point did anyone even remotely suggest that KOC was the most talented QB prospect in the draft. He was viewed as a guy with potential, but that's really about it.

Ryan Mallet was considered by many to be the most talented QB prospect in this year's draft. It's apples and oranges.

WhiZa said:

We said the same thing about O'Connel when he was drafted. Everyone (including myself) was designating him as the next Steve Young.

That did pan out, but it didn't matter anyway because Brady still had several years ahead of him. In this case, Mallet was a higher rated QB O'Connel was, and the fact Brady only has 3 years left on his contract, it will give the Pats 2 viable options to choose from in that time. I hope that motivates Brady even more.

Honestly, if you were scared about Brady going down the last 2 years without a experienced backup then you are a lot stronger then me

Click to expand...

I think you meant that didn't pan out and you weren't scared and I guess I wasn't. I don't expect to win it all every season even with Brady, and I certainly don't expect to win it all with a backup. But I've been fine with ours for the last six seasons...ever since that Cassel kid sent Rohan packing. I called KOC as a bad fit and potential flip only the day we drafted him. I don't see Mallett as a fit, either, but I sure hope he can be flipped. As Flutie said, I believe the best way to replace Brady is to find someone with the requisite temperement/mindset and skillset willing to work at adapting their game or abilities to mirror his. Because Brady turned out to be the living, breathing essence of the prototype QB Pioli and Bill and Charlie sought to identify and develop to efficiently and effectively run this offense.

And FWIW Brady has 4 years left on his contract.

Mallett can be a replacement for Hoyer when he leaves, he can also be a potential heir for TFB if he's done sooner than expected. Mallett can also be traded for look like Hoyer will likely be before his time is up if Brady still has the "F" in his name.

BB might also be taking a page from Bill Walsh's playbook, using Mallett to bring some "creative tension" to the position, light a bit of a fire on Tommy's behind in case he starts drifting off into celebrity worldd too much.

Trying to Understand the Ryan Mallet pick
If Mallet improves and learns all the schemes very fast, Hoyer is gone next year.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...pats-get-trading-brian-hoyer.html#post2540923

ivanvamp said:

I don't get the O'Connell --> Mallet comparison. At no point did anyone even remotely suggest that KOC was the most talented QB prospect in the draft. He was viewed as a guy with potential, but that's really about it.

Ryan Mallet was considered by many to be the most talented QB prospect in this year's draft. It's apples and oranges.

Click to expand...

Just remember, he was considered that by many of the same people who considered a slew of what now amount to jags and busts too lengthy to name that too. Identifying QB talent that translates from the college to pro ranks remains as much art and luck as science. Even Bill has struck out on talent he graded out as first round caliber...because talent alone seldom cuts it in this league. This class may prove to be as weak if not weaker than the class of 2000...which yeilded one HOF'er in the 6th, two oft injured journeymen including one drafted in the first...and assorted busts who went on to be day traders or goat farmers...

The road to hell NFL style is paved with highly touted first round graded potential franchise QB's who don't amount to a hill of beans. Otherwise the position wouldn't be the most highly sought after and anticipated year after year after year...

ivanvamp said:

I don't get the O'Connell --> Mallet comparison. At no point did anyone even remotely suggest that KOC was the most talented QB prospect in the draft. He was viewed as a guy with potential, but that's really about it.

Ryan Mallet was considered by many to be the most talented QB prospect in this year's draft. It's apples and oranges.

Click to expand...

This.


If you think Malle and O'Connel are comparable, you're not qualified to be in this conversation.

Watch some of the film of Mallet breaking down tape. Then watch an interview with Kevin O'Connel. Mallet is a first round QB who has some drug rumors surrounding him. Kevin O'Connel is a big strong kid who never played in a complicated offense, and it turns out, wasn't bright enoug to.