Patriots officially a top 10 Defense!

Deus Irae said:

How hard is it for people here to grasp simple concepts?

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I don't know, but you seem to be struggling mightily with that task.

And I didn't choose the method in the first place: the NFL chose it long ago.

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Please provide a link to the NFL directive suggesting that yards allowed is the only appropriate method for ranking team defensive performance. I seem to have missed that memo.

Top ten defense?

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2011 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

I don't know, but you seem to be struggling mightily with that task.

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I'm not the one who doesn't grasp the meaning of the definition.

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

Please provide a link to the NFL directive suggesting that yards allowed is the only appropriate method for ranking team defensive performance. I seem to have missed that memo.

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Nah... Instead, let's have you provide the link that says that ppg is the only appropriate method. Or, perhaps you could start by explaining how the articles about Houston having the NFL's #1 defense makes sense from a PPG viewpoint.

ATippett56 said:

Top ten defense?

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2011 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

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23 is much closer to where the Pats actually are than 10

I am not jumping on the bandwagon.This was the damn chiefs.Lets see them stop the eagles next week.

Deus Irae said:

Nah... Instead, let's have you provide the link that says that ppg is the only appropriate method.

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I am not cherry-picking only one statistical method (ppg) as the sole thing to focus upon. I am not saying that based only on ppg the Patriots defense must be great. You are the one cherry-picking only one statistical method (yardage allowed) as the sole thing to focus upon, allowing a certain conclusion.

Your justification for your flawed analysis is that it is commonly done that way. So what? I say it is a commonly made mistake, a flawed method.

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

I am not cherry-picking only one statistical method (ppg) as the sole thing to focus upon. You are the one cherry-picking only one statistical method (yardage allowed) as the sole thing to focus upon.

Your justification is that it is commonly done. So what? I say it is a common mistake.

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I'm not cherry picking anything. You're using a term that you don't understand.

People get caught up with the stats but Palko did move the ball on this defense.If it wasnt for the chiefs being the chiefs it could have been 14-0 to start the game.His completion rate was very high.

Deus Irae said:

I'm not cherry picking anything. You're using a term that you don't understand.

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I have done quite well in graduate-level statistics classes, and I understand it very well, thank you, and showed you exactly how the definition that you provided fits perfectly.

You would have a valid argument that the original poster of this thread is also cherry-picking one single statistic (ppg) to maintain that the Patriots have a top 10 defense. When you look at various ways of ranking defenses, the consensus is that the Patriots defense is somewhere toward the middle of the pack. The only way to settle on one extreme or the other is to incorrectly rely only on one piece of statistical data to the exclusion of all others, pieces of data that would appear to have near-equal validity.

Then you made some asinine claims such as the NFL establishing that yards allowed is the proper means of analysis.

It is clear that you are unable to clearly and calmly discuss any issue. If I were to claim that the sky currently appears to be blue, I am sure you would quibble with that, even if I provided the exact profile of the frequency of wavelengths emanating from the sky. It is what contrarians do.

mgteich said:

Last I heard, the net of points scored to points allowed is the most important statistic in each game of the season. Win this stat 16 times and the rest don't matter.

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Unfortunatally 16 times is quite enough. 18 isn't enough either. You need to win that stat in Febuary too.

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

I have done quite well in graduate-level statistics classes, and I understand it very well, thank you, and showed you exactly how the definition that you provided fits perfectly.

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The issue isn't one of statistical comprehension. It's one of vocabulary. You can't seem to grasp the meaning of a term.

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

You would have a valid argument that the original poster of this thread is also cherry-picking one single statistic (ppg) to maintain that the Patriots have a top 10 defense. When you look at various ways of ranking defenses, the consensus is that the Patriots defense is somewhere toward the middle of the pack. The only way to settle on one extreme or the other is to incorrectly rely only on one piece of statistical data to the exclusion of all others, pieces of data that would appear to have near-equal validity.

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I have a valid argument already. You're the one who made an invalid claim.

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

Then you made some asinine claims such as the NFL establishing that yards allowed is the proper means of analysis.

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Nothing asinine about it. Defensive rankings are generally tracked via yardage. I don't like that, but it's the case. That's what makes your contrarian view (and it is you who's being contrary on this, by definition) so amusing. I'm on your side in believing that ppg is generally a better measure, but that doesn't mean we'd be using the most common and most often cited method if we went in that direction.

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

It is clear that you are unable to clearly and calmly discuss any issue. If I were to claim that the sky currently appears to be blue, I am sure you would quibble with that, even if I provided the exact profile of the frequency of wavelengths emanating from the sky. It is what contrarians do.

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I'm calm and my point was clear. You don't understand the meaning of "cherry pick". This is a simple thing. What you are trying to establish as the meaning is ANY helpful use of ANY helpful information. That's not the meaning of the word. Now, I'm sorry that you can't seem to understand what is meant by "cherry pick", but that's a comprehension problem on your part, not a "contrarian" issue on mine.

According to ESPN's playoff calculator, if it is configured by defensive ranking as of today, the Patriots will lose their next 6 games and finish 7-9 out of the playoffs.

Green Bay under the same scenario would be the 5 seed in the NFC, and finish 10-6 and lose their remaining games.

Not the most likely scenarios in the real world.

2011 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN

Deus Irae said:

A sample size can be of any size, so I'm not sure what point you think you're making here. The issue here was what would be a sufficiently large sample.

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What would you like the sample size to be?? 16 games? 32 Games? 64 games? Do we judge the 85 Bears by 1984 and 1986?

they are almost 2/3 of the way through the season, at some point you have to use the data you have been given.

You like definitions, here you go.

In statistics, a sample is a subset of a population. Typically, the population is very large, making a census or a complete enumeration of all the values in the population impractical or impossible. The sample represents a subset of manageable size. Samples are collected and statistics are calculated from the samples so that one can make inferences or extrapolations from the sample to the population.

II Jangles II said:

Misleading stat is misleading

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Not misleading at all. Keeping the score of the other team in check plays to the strength of the PATS offense at this point in time. What's misleading is the yardage stat... When was the last time you saw yardage on a score board? Making the other team kick field goals is always a defensive victory, if you score touch downs and we do....

Rob0729 said:

C'mon! What are you talking about. The Pats almost lost tonight because they gave up 334 yards and only scored 380 yards. It was a real nail biter tonight.

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I'm assuming your being facetious?

moosekill said:

What would you like the sample size to be?? 16 games? 32 Games? 64 games? Do we judge the 85 Bears by 1984 and 1986?

they are almost 2/3 of the way through the season, at some point you have to use the data you have been given.

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Umm......

Deus Irae said:

In a league that's got 32 teams, and where injuries can have such a significant impact upon teams, 10 games is nowhere near enough of a sample size. Even 16 games isn't enough. We're stuck doing the best we can with the data we have, though.

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All this could have been avoided if you'd just read what I'd written rather than jumping in half-****ed.

moosekill said:

You like definitions, here you go.

In statistics, a sample is a subset of a population. Typically, the population is very large, making a census or a complete enumeration of all the values in the population impractical or impossible. The sample represents a subset of manageable size. Samples are collected and statistics are calculated from the samples so that one can make inferences or extrapolations from the sample to the population.

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I know the definition, which is why I knew your post wasn't making any sense.

I call them a work in progress. Probably next week, I will call the Patriots defense the same thing. Actually, I think they are playing better now than the 1st month of the season.

mgcolby said:

20.3 PPG puts them at 10th in the league in points against!

Just sayin....:confused2:

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Two things:

(1) Look at their remaining schedule:

Opponent (NFL offensive scoring rank, avg ppg scored)
at Phi (#10, 23.7 ppg)
vs Ind (#30, 13.1 ppg)
at Was (#27, 16.0 ppg)
at Den (#20, 20.5 ppg)
vs Mia (#23, 19.3 ppg)
vs Buf (#10, 23.7 ppg)

(2) The #7 team in the NFL in scoring defense is Cleveland, allowing 19.3 ppg.

Those two points above give me pretty much every reason to expect that by season's end, New England will have a top 7 scoring defense in the league.

ATippett56 said:

Top ten defense?

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2011 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

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Really? I can't stand that site. They have a bunch of chuckleheads who may or may not have a decent understanding of football. Making armchair analysis based on some arbitrary system, from the tv copy of the game only.

No thanks. I'll take the facts and the facts are 10th in the league in scoring...

This team gives up big yardage still.They will need Chung next week against the eagles.