Pick Your Patriots First Rounder

After trading out of the first round ;
2a Margus Hunt DE
2b John Simon OLB

I said:

After trading out of the first round ;
2a Margus Hunt DE
2b John Simon OLB

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John Simon isn't a 4-3 olb. He played with his hand down at OSU. When asked to stand up at the Senior Bowl. He was awful. Who would he take PT from in our defense Mayo or Hightower?

wpgjets>nyjets said:

First post, long time lurker, especially around draft time.

This year I’m going to think a bit differently and not focus as much on Youtube highlights, as I have been reading around the Internet about Pat Kirwan’s “Production Ratio” that he apparently discusses in his book ‘Take your Eye off the Ball’.

I don’t know much about it other than some teams probably have been using it (i.e Denver Bronco’s, who also from what I understand have kept a lot of the pats draft philosophies). I should mention that I have not read Kirwan’s book yet either.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on it/know about it? Seems to be popular on the milehighreport and some of the Cowboy’s message boards and I don’t think I’ve seen anyone post about it on here yet. Maybe it’s trash, but looking at the prospects from the past few years and their success in the NFL, it seems to have some value.

Basically for DT the formula is something like
(SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS)/NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED = PRODUCTION RATIO
and anything over 1 is good.

Therefore (sorry for the long winded reply) I would trade up to 15 for Damonte Moore (45 TFL, 26.5 sacks and a production ratio of 1.88) or Kawann Short (49 TFL, 19.5 sacks PR = 1.85)

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I just started reading Kirwin's book but I am not familiar with the production ratio you mention above. However, while production is good, the formula is definitely flawed. For instance, take a guy like University of Buffalo's Khalil Mack. In 35 career games, he had 56 TFL and 18 sacks. 56+18/35 = 2.11 production ratio vs say Chandler Jones, 32 games, 27 TFL and 10 sacks = 27+10/32 = 1.15 . Is Mack almost twice the player Jones is? Of course not. College production does not equal success in the NFL. It is an interesting tool and certainly does provide some value but I'm not sure how much. I think it is scenario specific. IMO.

wpgjets>nyjets said:

First post, long time lurker, especially around draft time.

This year I’m going to think a bit differently and not focus as much on Youtube highlights, as I have been reading around the Internet about Pat Kirwan’s “Production Ratio” that he apparently discusses in his book ‘Take your Eye off the Ball’.

I don’t know much about it other than some teams probably have been using it (i.e Denver Bronco’s, who also from what I understand have kept a lot of the pats draft philosophies). I should mention that I have not read Kirwan’s book yet either.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on it/know about it? Seems to be popular on the milehighreport and some of the Cowboy’s message boards and I don’t think I’ve seen anyone post about it on here yet. Maybe it’s trash, but looking at the prospects from the past few years and their success in the NFL, it seems to have some value.

Basically for DT the formula is something like
(SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS)/NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED = PRODUCTION RATIO
and anything over 1 is good.

Therefore (sorry for the long winded reply) I would trade up to 15 for Damonte Moore (45 TFL, 26.5 sacks and a production ratio of 1.88) or Kawann Short (49 TFL, 19.5 sacks PR = 1.85)

Click to expand...

Welcome to the board. I think you're overstating the predictive value of college production strongly. Vernon Gholston, Jerry Hughes, Jamaal Anderson, without looking it up those are four of the 8 or 10 most productive pass rushers of the past decade, and it sure hasn't shown up in the NFL.

Now that I've got a moment time to elaborate

Jon Cooper - Hmm. Connolly, Wendell are under contract and we're paying Mankins huge money. The roster has a lot of needs so I don't feel good about the marginal impact Cooper would have on the team. Good player though, and I suppose I wouldn't complain if we chose him.

Desmond Trufant - Not with Banks on the board still.

Matt Barkley - Just a terrible idea. What for? To trade Brady? Terrible.

Alex Okafor - Safe pick who's pretty maxed out but I don't him as a LE on early downs. Ninkovich has a hard time against the run and is a decent pass rusher, not sure if Okafor is really a step up from that.

Zach Ertz - Not another tight end. We need depth at the position not impact.

Dion Jordan - I'd consider it very strongly. I'd use him on tight ends and 3rd downs as a pass rusher. He's the best prospect here by a country mile.

Mike Glennon - People still want to trade Brady?

Sam Montgomery - Satisfies a need. Not sure if he's that good. None of his traits are NFL caliber, and we need impact more than depth at the position. I'd rather have Dion Jordan who can cover and has a much higher ceiling.

Johnthan Banks - The other guy I'd really consider here. You can never have enough good corners. I'd rather take him than Jordan honestly, and spend FA $ on distruptive DL than have to spend the money on a corner.

Kevin Minter - Nice prospect, not a good use of a 1st. Particularly now that we spent a 1st on Hightower.

Tavon Austin - Hell no. Trade down.

Quinton Patton - Too early. Like him though. We need to double dip at WR, and the prospects are flat enough that we can wait.




So I'm down for Banks. Otherwise, trade down.

Pats0204 said:

I just started reading Kirwin's book but I am not familiar with the production ratio you mention above. However, while production is good, the formula is definitely flawed. For instance, take a guy like University of Buffalo's Khalil Mack. In 35 career games, he had 56 TFL and 18 sacks. 56+18/35 = 2.11 production ratio vs say Chandler Jones, 32 games, 27 TFL and 10 sacks = 27+10/32 = 1.15 . Is Mack almost twice the player Jones is? Of course not. College production does not equal success in the NFL. It is an interesting tool and certainly does provide some value but I'm not sure how much. I think it is scenario specific. IMO.

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Hey how are you finding the book? I agree that there definitely are flaws in any type of formula that you would use, especially one like this that does not take into account level of competition or system that a player is in (maybe there is more to it and it does, but again I haven't read the book). And there are great college players that haven't panned out in the NFL, and so-so college players that have had great NFL careers.

However, if the player isn't producing in college and putting up big numbers there, I think it is difficult to say that he will all of a sudden start producing when now playing against bigger, stronger, faster, smarter football players than he faced in college.

I think it's just something to consider. I think it's real easy to get caught up in combine numbers, I personally want to watch football players and not just athletes with football equipment on.

The reason I'm interested in it now is because I have been hearing about how great the DT's are in this draft so I was trying to figure out which one I wanted the Pats to go after. I found it interesting that the PR for the majority of them was quite low.

wpgjets>nyjets said:

Hey how are you finding the book? I agree that there definitely are flaws in any type of formula that you would use, especially one like this that does not take into account level of competition or system that a player is in (maybe there is more to it and it does, but again I haven't read the book). And there are great college players that haven't panned out in the NFL, and so-so college players that have had great NFL careers.

However, if the player isn't producing in college and putting up big numbers there, I think it is difficult to say that he will all of a sudden start producing when now playing against bigger, stronger, faster, smarter football players than he faced in college.

I think it's just something to consider. I think it's real easy to get caught up in combine numbers, I personally want to watch football players and not just athletes with football equipment on.

The reason I'm interested in it now is because I have been hearing about how great the DT's are in this draft so I was trying to figure out which one I wanted the Pats to go after. I found it interesting that the PR for the majority of them was quite low.

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I love the book but like many of us here, I am a complete football junkie so I love practically any football material. Another good read that I just finished was "Coaching Confidential" by Gary Myers. Good stuff with some interesting stories (minus the Spygate stuff).
In terms of the combine, I know every year guys make a lot of money at the combine (Dontari Poe is the most recent example). I think the combine is a good tool to confirm what you already know about a player but not something to make or break a player. Obviously some positions are more valuable than others when it comes to splits etc but I read somewhere that an NFL scout said measurables (i.e. a short QB) shout be noted but not part of a player evaluation. I agree with this wholeheartedly. Think about all the teams that passed up a guy like Russell Wilson last year (due to his poor QB measureables).

I.M. Fletcher said:

Its incredible having such an asset as an assistant coach who never gets sniffed around from other teams.

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On the one hand, the team has to give him permission to interview for lateral moves while he's under contract. Obviously, that ain't happening.

On the other hand, Scar doesn't want to be an HC or OC; he just wants to be the best OL coach in the league.

having Scar is our biggest advantage after the GOAT Tom Brady and BB we can constantly rely on Scar to take low round picks and make them solid starters or take early round picks and make them pro bowlers. It gives us such an advantage when it comes to cap hits because we dont always have to spend a ton of money on our o line because we are constantly developing talent that can be counted on btw i think Banks should be our first pick if not trade down and try and get Elam, Brown, Short, Austin or Patton

I said:

After trading out of the first round ;
2a Margus Hunt DE
2b John Simon OLB

Click to expand...

To me, Hunt is one of the most overrated players in this draft. He is undisciplined and looks lost at times. More bad plays than good in my opinion. His size, speed combo is intriguing but I just do not see it.

ctpatsfan77 said:

On the one hand, the team has to give him permission to interview for lateral moves while he's under contract. Obviously, that ain't happening.

On the other hand, Scar doesn't want to be an HC or OC; he just wants to be the best OL coach in the league.

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I realized I miswrote this: what I should have said is "he just wants to continue being the best OL coach in the league."

EwanSellars said:

having Scar is our biggest advantage after the GOAT Tom Brady and BB we can constantly rely on Scar to take low round picks and make them solid starters or take early round picks and make them pro bowlers. It gives us such an advantage when it comes to cap hits because we dont always have to spend a ton of money on our o line because we are constantly developing talent that can be counted on btw i think Banks should be our first pick if not trade down and try and get Elam, Brown, Short, Austin or Patton

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Nah after BB and TB its definitely Ernie Adams.

So much depends on FA but as it stands I'll go CB although I'd rather acquire a CB in FA.

1. CB Jamar Taylor, Boise St.
Excellent at either press or off coverage. Quick twitch, fluid with ability to stay with vertical or breaking receivers. Very good in run force. Long arms & physical at the catch point to disrupt the ball.

or
2. CB Johnathan Banks, Miss St.
Another physical CB to win at the catch point. Played mostly Cover 3 at Miss St. Banks often took chances but those risks frequently paid off for him in college. My concern is he may get burned in the NFL if he continues to cut off that way.


It's not BB's style, but I'd actually like to see a legitimate 1st rnd WR like Woods, Hopkins or Patton here if CB is resolved before the draft.

Dion Jordan easily, second choice would be trufant