FO Film Study from December 2013: Brady in decline.

Kontradiction · Mar 28, 2014

This is an interesting, if not depressing, read. Not sure I fully agree with it. With all he had to deal with at WR, TE (or lack thereof), and interior OL, I think it's impossible to determine whether or not Brady is in decline already. Whether he is or is not should become more clear when the team gives him a few more weapons and the WR's we currently field come of age. He did make some bad decisions, but what quarterback doesn't? That said, Football Outsiders did a film study that started with breaking down his deep passing accuracy and then broke it down a bit more from there. I'll highlight some key parts...

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Film Room: Tom Brady

Brady was going to have to make up for a lot on the offensive side of the ball entering the year, and was tasked to do even more as potential solutions continued to crash and burn. Then came the defensive depletions. Defensive tackles Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly both landed on IR. The team's best linebacker, Jerod Mayo, also landed on IR during the season, while free agent addition Adrian Wilson never played a snap at safety because of an apparent torn Achilles

Brady's season can be broken down into three sections.

The first thing that stands out on the charts above is Brady's deep accuracy. Although he excelled with Randy Moss during his prime, there wasn't a huge amount of accuracy required when throwing the ball to Moss. Now that he has smaller receivers who can't create the same separation as Moss, it would make sense that his accuracy throwing the ball deep would decline. This would be an acceptable excuse, but Brady's receivers getting open hasn't been the issue

Kontra: Pics offered in article.

I don't particularly agree with this.

On each of these plays, Brady has plenty of time in the pocket and his receivers are already in stride when he releases the ball. He doesn't have to decipher the coverage or throw with anticipation, so timing is less of an issue. Furthermore, he isn't throwing to rookies, as his receivers are Edelman, Vereen and Amendola. Amendola is the only new receiver of the trio and he had five yards behind the secondary on this play. Instead of laying the ball out for Amendola to run underneath it, the trajectory Brady put on the ball forced Amendola to try and make a one-handed catch with just his fingertips while fully extended.

There were times when his receivers didn't create any separation and Brady forced the ball to them, but there were also times when his accuracy was so poor that the ball landed out of bounds before the receiver had any chance of making even a spectacular catch.

Of course, the popular overriding argument is that Brady is a winner and he has repeatedly proven that this season. He has made a number of late comeback attempts, specifically against the Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints. But he has also made a number of drive-killing plays at critical points in different games that taints his good work in those situations. In that (in)famous victory over the New Orleans Saints, Brady made two terrible decisions that killed drives with less than three minutes left in the fourth quarter. He eventually lead the game-winning drive, but not without a lot of help from his defense and the Saints.

The first play was an incompletion -- a pass that Aaron Dobson should have caught. But a drop from the receiver wasn't the only reason the play failed: It was fourth-and-6. The Patriots needed six yards and Brady threw the ball to Dobson just two yards downfield. It was a good decision from the quarterback, because Dobson had a step on the defender and space to run into for the conversion. However, the poor ball placement from Brady forced Dobson to slow down. While he was reacting to the pass, the defender was closing off the separation that was previously there.

Dobson fails to make the catch, but even if he does, the defender is there to tackle him and take him down short of the first down. If Dobson didn't have to break stride, then the only reason for this play to fail would be a drop. Because Dobson had to break stride, he never had much chance of making the first down anyway. Brady needed to put this ball in front of his receiver. Instead he threw it too low towards his hip.

It's a minor detail, but minor details are huge when you are the quarterback. Minor details are the difference between drives continuing and drives stalling. Between winning and losing.

After this play, the Patriots defense held the Saints to a field goal before Brady heaved a ball down the sideline into double-coverage for an interception. Cautious play-calling gave him a chance to redeem himself, but his decision to heave that pass to Edelman in a situation like this can't simply be ignored. Even Moss probably wouldn't have been able to bail him out on that throw. Brady deserves praise for his successful comebacks, but it's unfair to ignore moments such as these late in games.

Kontra: Pics in article.

Just to note, there's no comparison to other quarterbacks in this article, but it's still a somewhat interesting, albeit flawed, read. Each breakdown they do of him comes with All-22 stills that break down the play.

manxman2601 · Mar 28, 2014

I think there's some truth to this article. In particular where it notes his reduced field awareness ( I thought he struggled to see both sides of the field last year) and I agree with them about his lessened pocket awareness.

He struggled in one year where the odds were against him with injuries and rookie WRs and an interior OL that struggled. I certainly don't think we should be overly worried yet, Brady is still better than most, but it's worth tracking next season.

cstjohn17 · Mar 28, 2014

I don't think anyone should be surprised, Brady is on the back nine. Last year the Patriots gave him a crappy hand and injuries didn't help. This year he will have more to work with and will be an above average QB on a deep roster that is a championship contender. I don't think he is at a level to single handily win the Superbowl and I don't think the Patriots are asking him to do this (in the past they have).

sb1 · Mar 28, 2014

In view mode the sidebar is overlapping the right side of the post for some reason but when I made this post I can read it...weird.

Brady's play WILL decline, it's inevitable. It happens to each and every one of the greats. No reason to think Brady will be an exception to that.

With that said, I guess it's possible that he is declining now and I agree about the pocket awareness... but for me the arm strength is still there and that's what matters. He's got lots of zip on the ball and he can complete the intermediate slants through defenders and the quick outs. Once I see that arm strength going then it's time to worry. IMO that hasn't happened yet.

It's moot to criticize his deep throws... that was never the best part of his game. Saying his deep throws are off is not news.

Big-T · Mar 28, 2014

If it continues into next season then the article has some merit. However last year he had a shaky OL, a different cast of receivers most weeks (and 3 were rookies) who he had to get on the same page as.

Not having confidence in the OL could have lead to lesser pocket awareness, missing on the deep shots - mostly missing long - could be down to 2 things: timing with the receivers not down yet and his altered technique from his coach.

Worth noting? Yes, worth worrying about? Not yet.

Sicilian · Mar 28, 2014

#3 offense in the NFL, despite having questionable confidence in the o-line, two rookies playing prominent roles at WR, only one competent pass catching TE (who only played a handful of games), and a defense that (due to key injuries), did little to help out with field position.

There's no doubt Brady isn't going to get BETTER as he enters his late 30's, but I'd like to see how he does with a more stable and competent cast before I declare last year to be a definite decline. Hell, just having Gronk healthy for a full season I bet he looks more like the Brady of old.

RIpats88 · Mar 28, 2014

to be fair though, brady for most of the season had the worst receiving corp of his career. I mean in the playoffs he had edelman, a gimpy amendola and austin collie...and that was IT and in the early part of the season he was dealing with rookies who didn't know where to be on the field.

it's easy to forget that when Gronkowski was back for 7 games and he had his full complement of receivers that brady was posting very brady-like numbers. torching the panthers, steelers etc.

and I fully expect that next season with the additions, rookie improvements of Dobson and health of Gronkowski that he will have a bounce back year.

Peachhead · Mar 28, 2014

Yeah, we need to cut him. Think of all the cap room it would create! We could sign...um, I don't know. But think of all the guys we could sign!

Or trade him! He must be worth 1st round picks for at least a decade! Then we could draft...um, I don't know. But think of all the guys we could draft!

/fantasy.football.mindset

opcorn2:

(Totally and completely stuffed to the gills, filled to the rafters and hopelessly drowning in sarcasm)

BradyManny · Mar 28, 2014

I don't think it's a mystery, Brady is at his best when he knows where he's going with the ball. When the protection sucks, when he can't trust his receivers, etc., you see some inconsistency. I thought we saw a lot more good than bad from him last year.

The deep ball is the only thing that worries me. I'd like to see that come back. There's no consistency in who is he throwing to deep, which I don't think helps at all.

It's possible, at some point, Gronk will be our best offensive player going forward, but it's really 1A & 1B. Once Gronk is back on the field, I have no real concerns about this offense.

Observer · Mar 28, 2014

Not anything we don't already know. But if Eli and Flacco are good enough to win a superbowl then Brady certainly is. Our priority should be tight ends rather than wide receivers though.

JMC00 · Mar 28, 2014

2nd half of last season
2519 yards
65%
16 TD
5 INT (1 was Vereen dropping it into the defender)
99.1 QB Rating.

Kontradiction · Mar 28, 2014

Big-T said:
If it continues into next season then the article has some merit. However last year he had a shaky OL, a different cast of receivers most weeks (and 3 were rookies) who he had to get on the same page as.

Not having confidence in the OL could have lead to lesser pocket awareness, missing on the deep shots - mostly missing long - could be down to 2 things: timing with the receivers not down yet and his altered technique from his coach.

Worth noting? Yes, worth worrying about? Not yet.

Exactly. You said that better than I ever could in the OP. I also think they should have compared him to quarterbacks of a similar age group *cough* Manning *cough* on the subject of those deep passes.

bagwell368 · Mar 28, 2014

Interesting. Before last year I was talking about his decline, and got jumped on.

Let's hope the D, running game, and effective red zone targets give Brady the sort of cushion Elway had at the end.

Tunescribe · Mar 28, 2014

Sicilian said:
#3 offense in the NFL, despite having questionable confidence in the o-line, two rookies playing prominent roles at WR, only one competent pass catching TE (who only played a handful of games), and a defense that (due to key injuries), did little to help out with field position.

There's no doubt Brady isn't going to get BETTER as he enters his late 30's, but I'd like to see how he does with a more stable and competent cast before I declare last year to be a definite decline. Hell, just having Gronk healthy for a full season I bet he looks more like the Brady of old.

Yes. A quarterback doesn't play in a vacuum. This "analysis" is skewed by a new and largely inexperienced receiving corps and shifting OL personnel, both of which affect Brady's decision making, pocket presence, timing -- his whole mode of play. (And also a defense in serious flux.) To conclude from any of it that he's in significant "decline" is ludicrous.

Don Kipines · Mar 28, 2014

Brady is like all quarterbacks, he's good at some throws, struggles with others. His strengths have always been the deep outs and the intermediate throws between the numbers. He has great timing and zip on those and he still did last year. What he didn't have last year were guys who excelled at those out routes. Dobson started to pick them up a little before he got hurt, and Gronk was great when he played. But Amendola couldn't plant to get separation and Julian was too short to make those throws easy.

Give Brady a few bigger targets, especially another tight end, and he'll start making more of his favorite throws. As it was, he was pretty great last year. He just had to hit very small targets too often.

I like the potential of Dobson, LaFell, Thompkins, and whoever they bring in thru the draft to help restore order.

Christian · Mar 28, 2014

I don't think accuracy on deep balls declining is a way to judge if he is declining or not. I think the way to judge if he is declining would more so be, how is he moving in the pocket? His physical make up...for example, is he moving as quick as he was 3-4 years ago? Is his release as quick? Has the velocity on his throws lessened? Football is really a game of centimeters. Once you lost a centimeter of anything, it makes a difference.

Brady's mind and football knowledge gets better by the year, but players around him can make a difference in this area. If he doesn't have the trust of his receivers, he may force a throw elsewhere because of that. Does that mean he's declining? No. I think we saw a lot of that last year.

As someone else said, get him some legitimate targets with size and I highly doubt anyone would be thinking he's in decline.

I will say though, that people who think he's going to be around another 4-5 years are crazy. I think he has 2 more elite level years left...maybe 3, MAX.

TonyTucker · Mar 28, 2014

With Gronk in there, they averaged 12 more points per game. Even without him for most of the year they still ended up 3rd in PPG. Give him another one (or two, honestly, I don't want Hooman any higher than 3rd on the depth chart when Gronk gets hurt again) TE's and he'll light it up like usual.

patfanken · Mar 28, 2014

I thought the film study was interesting from point of seeing how plays evolve and how tiny the margin of error is at that high level. But in decline? I don't thinks so at this point. Decline in an aging athlete is when your mind makes the play, but the body doesn't deliver. I don't see that in Brady yet. Was he inaccurate on some of those long throws. Absolutely, but he failed mechanically, not physically. He still threw with more velocity than most, he still has the arm strength to get the ball deep with velocity.

If there is one area that I can criticize in Brady as he "declines"

, its pocket patience, not pocket presence. He is clearly not as willing to take the hit in the pocket, and who the F can blame him. I'm NOT saying he isn't tough, because he could be among the toughest QB's in NFL history.

What I'm trying to articulate that in his dotage, he will be more likely to go to the short sure completion than to wait an extra second for the longer routes to open up. Its the reason I think he tends to lock on to a favorite receiver right away, (ie last season it was Edelman), rather than look at a second receiving option (ie wide open RB's and TE's short). Now some of that may have been caused by the lack of an experienced receiver group. We'll find out this year

In athletes, speed and quickness are the first things to go. If you didn't come into the league with any speed or quickness, or you play a position that doesn't require any speed or quickness (like QB), visible decline will be slower to note.

Where I differ with the article is their interpretation that what's a "decline". Where they see a physical regression, I see mechanical or mental errors, What a shock, Tom Brady F's up now and again.

Think about this comparison. Nolan Ryan was throwing in the high 90's well into his 40's. Tom Brady is in a unique position to play QB at a high level as long as his arm stays strong and he keeps his mental toughness and competitive juices at a high level. In those 3 key areas of Brady's game I don't see any "decline". He can still "sling" it with anyone, and no one in the league questions his competitiveness and mental toughness.....at least not yet.

upstater1 · Mar 28, 2014

6 months prior to the season, Brady was playing the best ball of his career, leading his team to the 4th highest scoring year in NFL history.

Something happened in those 6 months that made him lose it, apparently.

People focus on his missed throws downfield. What is never or rarely mentioned by these people is how often some of the other top guns miss. We saw Peyton Manning miss multiple wide open receivers downfield in the AFCCG even. The difference? Manning comes right back on the next play and coverts a short one. He keeps the sticks moving. Just like Brady did the year before. In this way, mistakes occur just as often with other QBs, but the more potent offenses can overcome those mistakes easily by converting on latter downs.

The Patriots had a pop gun offense out there.

And somehow Brady lost it over 6 months.

primetime · Mar 28, 2014

The analysis is correct, solid, and thorough, but I'm not sure the conclusion drawn from it is the same one I would make. The newcomers to the team and the injury bug have a powerful effect and it's easy to blame a bad throw on Brady when it was his receivers - the curse of eternally incomplete information.

Still, I do think Brady missed short and medium passes that he used to make with ease last year. And he gets happy feet much more often than he did earlier in his career with the rush in his face, which means blitzes are much more effective than they used to be.

I also think we, as fans, have to be aware of his age and that quarterbacks do inevitably decline.

FO Film Study from December 2013: Brady in decline.

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