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Great stuff, JM, Lot's of good information in your post. But one thing really popped out to me and bears repeating. That's that 64% completion rate. The number isn't that high, but it grows in importance when you consider the competition it was gotten against. Think about it, bad teams, a supposedly great pass rush (2nd in sacks) any yet they STILL gave up a 64% completion rate. That would imply one very crappy pass defense.I need to watch some all-22 on the Ravens to get a better idea of what's going on with the Baltimore rush defense, so in the interim some stats:
3.6 yards per carry - 3rd best in the NFL
88.3 yards per game - 4th
24.1 rush attempts/game - 5th
4.7 first downs per game - 5th
8 rushing touchdowns - tied for 5th
37% opponent rush play percentage - 3rd
24% opponent rushing 1st down % - 4th
25.6% opp rushing yards percentage - 2nd
At first glance I would say that running against Baltimore is a whole lot easier said than done. However, I have a few questions.
First, did opponents not run on them in part because it was so much easier to pass against them? Opponents did complete 64% of their passes against the Ravens, and that happened despite their facing average to subpar quarterbacks more often than they faced good QBs.
Also in regards to their opponents, how many teams with decent running games did they face? Baltimore played the Bengals (before Jeremy Hill got any playing time), the Browns twice, Carolina (without Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams), the Bucs, Falcons, Titans, Saints, Chargers, Jaguars, and then the Steelers without Le'Veon Bell.
In the final game of the regular season, the Cleveland Browns had third stringer Connor Shaw at QB, and no Josh Gordon at WR against the Ravens. Even though it was obvious the Browns weren't going to rely on their passing game, Cleveland's Terrance West ran for 94 yards and averaged 5.2 yards per carry. If the Browns - who had one of the worst running games in the NFL this year, averaging 3.6 yards per carry - could do that against Baltimore in that situation, then is the Ravens' run D really all that it is being hyped up to be?
I also think you are on to something on the run game. The Steelers managed 80 yds against them, and they were playing from behind the entire night without their top 2 run threats. That was a great question BTW. You have to wonder if part of their good run defense stats are due to the fact their pass defense was so bad.
I the end, I would be happy if at the end of the game the Pats wind up with 25 carries and just 80+ yds. That's just enough of a combination of production and carries to give some balance to the O. We need that as a minimum, but personally when its all over I expect the total to be over 120 yds.
OT (a bit) - I've heard a lot about the vaunted Raven rushing attack a lot this week. What I haven't heard anything about was the anemic 49yd performance in the Steeler game. Not a word. Christ, if the Pats had put up that kind of result in a big game, they'd be looking to open Congressional Hearings. But in this narrative, its not even mentioned. (except by me. )