But I'm not buying the "Colts are way better" now line.
Nor should you. From an earlier thread:
The "Colts are so much better!" narrative is interesting considering that they had arguably the least impressive December of any AFC playoff team. Even if I ignore getting curb stomped in Dallas (game meant nothing, sat Hilton), they still were seriously outplayed by Cleveland, could do nothing against Houston and weren't very impressive against TN (though it was a season ender, so it probably shouldn't count either).
As for their much improved running game, this is the yardage by their leading rusher (per game) since December: 37, 60, 3, 35, 56, 63. The 60 and 56 came against two of the worst run defenses in the league, Cleveland and Cincy, and the first 37 was actually Luck. They only had one game that even approaches "impressive" and that is going for 99 on a very good Denver defense. Of course, Denver's offensive woes gave Indy 34 minutes and 11 drives to tally that yardage and Herron only went off for 2.7 ypc.
Run defense does appear improved, but leading up to the earlier game, Balt, Hou, Cincy, Pitt and NYG went off for 90, 136, 32, 117 and 98 respectively. It isn't like everyone was cracking 200 on them and now they've crept back to respectability.
Of course, there are some personnel improvements, with injured guys returning, but overall the playoff success looks far more like favorable match ups than development since November.
The run defense really hasn't changed that much with Arthur Jones back. The bolded totals look awfully similar to the most recent run of allowing 137, 142, 110 and 88. YPC isn't much different either, the numbers for the aforementioned Balt, Hou, Cincy, Pitt and NYG games were 6.0, 5.7, 2.7, 3.7 and 4.4. The most recent run: 3.3, 5.9, 5,3 and 4.4. (I removed the Dallas game because I wasn't sure what to do with it. In fairness to the Colts, they did a very good job on Murray).
An oddity I found when digging through these figures, Cincy only
passed for 3.8 ypa, and TN was worse, topping out at a pristine 1.4 ypa! So Indy allowed two teams to run for over 5 ypc when they couldn't pass at all. I don't know whether that speaks highly of their pass defense or poorly of their run defense. Considering the offenses, I'd lean toward the latter but I can't claim to be entirely objective.
Yes, Indy looked impressive against Cincy, but they looked even more impressive against a better Bengal team the first time around. They made Denver look pathetic, but Manning had at least as much to do with that. I'm also puzzled why Denver only had 22 total carries after rewatching that game last night. Sure, there were times when situations forced them to pass, but there were just as many when Denver intentionally took the ball out of Anderson's hands. It was as if they couldn't understand how their September offense wasn't working. Surely it will next drive.
As I wrote above, Indy's running attack isn't really anything to be excited about, either. No, they probably aren't going to rush for 4 yards on 14 carries on Sunday, but that wasn't likely to happen no matter who the running back was. It's more a matter of perspective. Indy's "new and improved" rushing attack would still be one of the worst in the league, it just isn't the abomination it was a few months ago.
Not saying Indy can't win, even in the earlier game, they were only down by a single score in the 4th quarter. If NE's defense doesn't rebound from last week and Luck has a mistake free game, it could certainly come down to a field goal. But the same could have been said even if the earlier Indy team was coming to Foxboro. Any team can lose to any other on any day.
I wouldn't be on it, though.
