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I think this is much more a case of Occam's Razor. The simplest answer is probably true.
No one really gives much thought to any of this, they spend .001 percent of their time worrying about the football and not think about them again...
Why are we assuming the balls are inflated before the game. they may just inflate them once when they first open them and then use them in practice for days or even weeks ahead of the game and never check them again as long as the "feel" right. Our balls may be left in an outside facility as opposed to the Colts traveling and their footballs always staying inside. This has always been a very loosely policed thing that only came to light due to bitterness and now the league is seeing that because of that there isn't the ability to make an actual cut and dry case. They don't want to make a ruling that they know will be reduced again because of their over reaction. Kraft was willing to fall on the sword the first time, he obviously has decided he won't again.
this is pretty much what I said at the beginning. The pats hand the balls off to the refs underinflated. The refs did not check them with a gauge. They probably don't usually bother to. Irsay made this an issue. It never mattered until he said it mattered. The NFL has to investigate because an owner complained about tampering. Irsay leaked this to the media to pressure the NFL into action.