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Isaac, I'm afraid I won't be able to convince you of the 3-4 value Timmons and Beason may hold. Disclaimer: I am an average fan who through the twists of fate have more time on my hands then is healthy. I am not a coach like TripleOption. I would usually defer to his knowledge, but I'm also a curmudgeonly sort who likes to analyze Patriots' football as a way to keep my mind occupied when the bod is uncooperative. So please take my analysis for what it is, a limited scope effort, by a novice, to understand the Pats. Thank you.
The following is a roster analysis I did as part of an earlier post in the Draft Forum:I am aware of the notes in Patriot Reign discussing Jonathan Vilma and the quotes from news sources of BB talking about Ernie Sims. As an analyst, they are speculative reports since neither player was acquired for the Pats. You can't include the speculative information in the hard data, what you can do is consider it when trying to determine where a future draft pick might deviate from the norm.
Additional data can be culled from the Patriots' linebackers currently on the roster, but not listed above...:
Larry Izzo 5'10" 228
Cory Mayes 6'1" 245
Adalius Thomas 6'2" 270
Pierre Woods 6'5" 250
...and from past rosters listed on Patriots.com:
Don Davis 6'1" 235
Barry Gardner 6'1" 245
Matt Chatham 6'4" 250
Ryan Claridge 6'2" 254
Justin Kurpeikis 6'3" 254
Dan Klecko 5'11" 275
Andy Katzenmoyer 6'3" 260
Marty Moore 6'1" 245
Kole Ayi 6'1" 231
For comparison, here are is the height/weight for Beason and Timmons from the Combine and their Pro-Days:
Jon Beason - Combine: 6' 1/4" 237 - Pro-Day: 229.
Lawrence Timmons - Combine: 6' 7/8" 234 - Pro-Day 233.
NFLDraftScout has this summation from their analysis on Beason:
NFLDraftScout has this summation for Timmons:Television draft analysts I've watched have similar assessments.
Both players would appear to fall outside the "norm" for those Linebackers on the Patriots' rosters. They are much closer in style to the speculative reports from past draft classes (Vilma and Sims). I'm not a gambler, but I'd say the odds are working against them right there. Both players rely on quickness and avoiding blockers, this is Tedy Bruschi's strong point, but Tedy also played as a down lineman in college, he had to engage blockers at the point of attack much more often then these two Juniors.
The Patriots' linebackers as a rule weigh-in at 245 and up. Those who weigh-in less than 245 are Special Teams' coverage specialists or struggled in a starting role in the 3-4. Both Beason and Timmons would appear to need to gain additional weight to help them stand up in the Pats' 3-4. In Beason's case he needs to gain 7-16 pounds to play at 245 (the lower end of the scale for successful Pats' linebackers), and Timmons needs to gain 11-12 pounds. If they rely on quickness to avoid blockers, how much will the weight gain affect their quickness? Some can argue not at all, but some doubt does exist.
We have two players who will need time to gain lean muscle weight and learn the interior techniques needed to deal with Offensive Guards. There is some doubt as to how much the weight gain will affect them. They both primarily played OLB in college, Beason has some MLB experience. So we have:
- a transition to ILB.
- weight gain needed for the new role, with some small doubt as to how it will affect their quickness.
- draftnik analysis that indicates they'd be better fits in systems that allow them to use their sideline-to-sideline speed and screens them from blockers.
- Timmons in particular is described as "raw" with a lot to learn about technique and making the correct reads.
You have issues starting to accumulate, how many issues are needed before they become too great a risk in the first round? If they are the only linebackers you are considering in the first round, I'd defer to a more conservative draft selection who, like Mankins, leaves little doubt about his ability to play the position you are drafting for.
In closing, Beason or Timmons might, in time, turn out to be magnificent 3-4 linebackers for the Patriots, but at the moment, they are falling outside the norm for a successful Pats' linebacker, that just doesn't suggest first round value.
Thank you. What I have been saying all day, but I have to admit you said it far better than I. Kudos.
