How Have We Improved

JarOfMayo51 · Apr 8, 2015

VOODOOZF said:
The formula doesn't "always work" as a matter of fact they went a decade without winning a SB for the simple reason their defense and to be more specific their secondary was not championship caliber...When the Patriots went out and signed elite talent at cb they won the Super Bowl. Is that a coincidence?

As a said before I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. I think it's likely they will acquire a quality cb at some point before the trade deadline. If they don't they will revert back to the ten years prior when they didn't win a SB because they couldn't get off the field on third down and will come up short again...As I type they are not a championship caliber defense. Their cb's are simply not good enough to win a Superbowl...Hopefully that will change before the trade deadline.

And an injured, hobbled Gronk playing at like 50%..

And it came down to the final seconds. . CB play had nothing to do with the loss

JarOfMayo51 · Apr 8, 2015

PATSNUTme said:
I agree. That Welker drop to clinch the SB victory, was all because we didn't have championship caliber CB's.

Oops meant to quote you in above post

JarOfMayo51 · Apr 8, 2015

Canuck said:
Basically what that means, the teams in our division have to be at their very best to beat us at our very worst. Can that happen sure but the odds are against it. Remember we went 12-4 without Revis, Browner and Wilfork the year before.

And Mayo.. they lost all of their defensive captains to injury, the stars on defense that got paid the most.. and Talib went down in the 2nd quarter of the afccg.

all their star power, top end contract guys done for the year. . And they still nearly made it to another SB.

gtfanboy · Apr 8, 2015

Just give TB12 more weapons...

I swear he can carry us to the superbowl if he had the talent (RB not withstanding ofcourse) around him...

50-yard-line · Apr 8, 2015

VOODOOZF said:
We had nearly a decade of not being able to get off the field on third down. In that time we won zero championships. The Patriots brought in elite talent at cb this year and they won the Super Bowl. Is this merely a coincidence?

Much more of a coincidence than any analysis offered otherwise.

In 2007, highly-rated Assante Samuel drops an easy pick along the sideline and we lose.
In 2014, UDFA Malcolm Butler makes a desperate play for the ages to seal the win.

I don't know how anyone can think Revis was the difference between losing 2007 (or the next one, for that matter - Welker drop) and winning 2014.

gtfanboy · Apr 8, 2015

50-yard-line said:
Much more of a coincidence than any analysis offered otherwise.

In 2007, highly-rated Assante Samuel drops an easy pick along the sideline and we lose.
In 2014, UDFA Malcolm Butler makes a desperate play for the ages to seal the win.

I don't know how anyone can think Revis was the difference between losing 2007 (or the next one, for that matter - Welker drop) and winning 2014.

Exactly...this whole concept of shutdown defense is mind-boggling...

If Revis, wilfork and browner were the shutdown team, then we shouldnot have come down to a stupid call/pick in the last seconds of the game

BradyFTW! · Apr 8, 2015

The Pats are clearly worse as of right now, but I think that was a virtual inevitability and I'm far from panicking or even being particularly worried. It's not like they've bungled anything: Revis got too much money, and Wilfork wasn't worth his cap hold. So they're both gone.

I think a better way to look at it is that the Pats have been pretty effective at minimizing the damage of the offseason to date. McCourty's back, Sheard will help a lot up front, and Easley--an elite prospect when healthy--should be back at 100%. I include Easley and not the rest of the guys because this is a special case, IMO. Easley was drafted as someone who would possibly require a red shirt year, and he got it. He's for all intents and purposes a new addition.

All of that combined won't offset the loss of Revis, but I'm not going to sit here and begrudge the Pats for electing not to sell out their entire cap philosophy in order to outbid the Jets on a 30 year old FA, no matter how good he is.

rochrist · Apr 8, 2015

VOODOOZF said:
The formula doesn't "always work" as a matter of fact they went a decade without winning a SB for the simple reason their defense and to be more specific their secondary was not championship caliber...When the Patriots went out and signed elite talent at cb they won the Super Bowl. Is that a coincidence?

As a said before I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. I think it's likely they will acquire a quality cb at some point before the trade deadline. If they don't they will revert back to the ten years prior when they didn't win a SB because they couldn't get off the field on third down and will come up short again...As I type they are not a championship caliber defense. Their cb's are simply not good enough to win a Superbowl...Hopefully that will change before the trade deadline.

Yes, pretty much. They've been to 3 SBs during that time and each one was decided by the tiniest of margins. Any one of them could have gone the other way. They could just as easily be 6-0 or 3-3. But if Gronk had been healthy in 2011, my money would be on 5-1, secondary or no secondary.

AzPatsFan · Apr 10, 2015

billdog3484 said:
RANT BEGIN

I am not writing this thread in an effort to make it seem like I believe the sky is falling. At worse, we are probably a 10-6 team. Is that acceptable to all of you guys?

Can anyone please explain to me how we have improved this offseason?

We all know that Brady has very few precious years left. What have we done to help him win another championship?

In terms of key losses, defensively we have lost Revis, Browner and Wilfork in order of most important to least important. We lost a few other guys like Casilla but whatever. Wilfork is replaceable and Im not mad about losing him. But what the heck can possibly be done to improve our secondary at this point.

From 2005-2013 we had the worst 3rd down defense i have ever seen. The most frustrating football I have had to watch. We won but it was painful at times. We couldnt get off the field. We had the best QB in the league and we were on defense way too long. It shrunk the length of the game and limited the amount of opportunities Brady had to score. That takes a competetitive advantage of ours away. Over a larger sample size the likelihood Brady will score more Points Per Drive than the other teams QB is brought closer to the mean. In other words, more likely we score more points than the other team. Now that we have a crappy ass secondary again, our offense will have less drives and Brady will have to be more magical again each game to maximize the amount of games we win. At 38/39 years old, not like it used to be.

Offensively, I believe we are fine. Vereen is a good player but replaceable. I think the addition of Chandler is a big move. I would say maybe we are better on offense. Could we use a WR, yes, but i dont consider it a major necessity. I think Chandler and Gronk will make a devastating tandem.

We have a nice offense, but i believe a good to great defense is the most important thing. People will say we won with worse defenses, but that was when Brady was still under 35 years old. Hes almost 40 now. He is not going to be able to do now what he did when he was younger. It's possible but not likely he can keep it up. We need the defense.

Obviously, we have a bunch of quality draft picks, 32nd, 64th, 96th, 98th (i think), and somewhere about 102 I would guess. Thats good. But how many rookies come in and do well their first season? And esepcially drafting at the complete end of the 1st round there is unlikely to be many guys who can step in day 1 and be very effective, at least at CB which is our #1 need.

Are we going to trade a premium pick for a CB (whom probably doesnt exist)? Im confused.

RANT COMPLETE

How have we improved?

I think the pass rush is improved with a healthy penetrating #1 draft pick at DT. Plus we have acquired a proven Pass rusher at DE in Jabaal Sheard. Improved.

We have improved at LB getting a healthy Pro Bowl LB in Mayo back that we didn't have in 2014. Plus both Collins and Hightower improved immeasureably with more experience. Not re-signing Ayers and Cassilas hurts depth, however. Improved.

In the secondary our Safety play improved. Chung resurrected his career, and Harmon and Wilson developed some more. Marginally Better.

We lost Revis and Browner which hurt grievously, but acquired Butler and will have former starter Fonzie Denard back and healthy. Arrington returns to the slot where he is good. Not Improved. (But not a disaster either)

On Offense, the Offensive line has improved with the development of Stork and the potential improvement of Flemming and Cannon. The O_line reconstruction is almost finished, even without the expected high draftee. Improved.

TE is better with the acquisition of Chandler and a full training camp for Wright. Improved.

RB took a hit no doubt about that. Beyond losing Vereen, we did not re-sign Ridley but the Draft may help there, as RB is the easiest position for a rookie to contribute, and Blount returns. Not improved.

At WR, LaFell and Amendola have more experience with the Pats plays, and Dobson returns now healthy. Improved.

Ivan · Apr 10, 2015

AzPatsFan said:
How have we improved?

I think the pass rush is improved with a healthy penetrating #1 draft pick at DT Plus we have acquired a proven Pass rusher at DE in Jabaal Sheard. Improved.

We have improved at LB getting a healthy Pro Bowl LB in Mayo back that we didn't have in 2014. Plus both Collins and Hightower improved immeasureably with more experience. Not re-signing Ayers and Cassilas hurts depth however. Improved.

In the secondary our Safety play improved. Chung resurrected his career and Harmon and Wilson developed some more. Marginally Better.

We lost Revis and Browner which hurt grievously, but acquired Butler and will have former starter Fonzie Denard back and healthy. Arrington returns to the slot where he is good. Not Improved. (But not a disaster either)

On Offense, the Offensive line has improved with the development of Stork and the potential improvement of Flemming and Cannon. The O_line reconstruction is almost finished, even without the expected high draftee. Improved.

TE is better with the acquisition of Chandler and a full training camp for Wright. Improved.

RB took a hit no doubt about that. Beyond losing Vereen, we did not re-sign Ridley but the Draft may help there, as RB is the easiest position for a rookie to contribute, and Blount returns. Not improved.

At WR, LaFell and Amendola have more experience with the Pats plays, and Dobson returns now healthy. Improved.

Interesting post. I think there good reason for optimism but you're leaving out some key hits. Losing Wilfork hurts and they still have the hole at LG. And for a Championship team they actually have plenty of holes and room for growth. Other than kickers and QBs they could add talent pretty much everywhere. I really like the core of the team their building but they need b to make the right calls on the guys they are bringing in to fill it out. That said they were young when they won the Lombardi and they are younger now. Brady is still elite and if there good young players take the next step they could be great this season.

AzPatsFan · Apr 10, 2015

To all you chickenlittles who complain aboutteh previousyears secondaries. The Pats did go to 2 Superbowls and came within a mairaculous helmet catch of a 19-0 undefeated season.

But seriously, BB has had to tear down the first generation SuperBowl team as the players grew old and slow; and totally reconstruct it. He did so, and still won 12 games a season. But that reconstruction is still going on and only now nearing finish on the Offense. The D_line is full of young first and second round star players and a star in Ninkovitch. The LBs are now all proven first and second round picks and players still coming into their own.

The much criticized Safeties are now reasonably solid, with starting First and Second round Safeties and high picks backing them up.

Future HOFer Revis was a one year rented wonder, and a great loss. But what is left at CB is hardly chicken feathers. Ryan, Butler, Denard and Arrington may not be HOF CBs, but they are all somewhat talented. Certainly better than what the Pats fielded for a half a decade. Now they have an tremendous front seven in front of them, as well.

All of the AFCE competitors have spent extravagantly on expensive veteran FAs, to close the gap and catch up. The CAP pinch will start showing up soon.

AzPatsFan · Apr 10, 2015

Ivan said:
Interesting post. I think there good reason for optimism but you're leaving out some key hits. Losing Wilfork hurts and they still have the hole at LG. And for a Championship team they actually have plenty of holes and room for growth. Other than kickers and QBs they could add talent pretty much everywhere. I really like the core of the team their building but they need b to make the right calls on the guys they are bringing in to fill it out. That said they were young when they won the Lombardi and they are younger now. Brady is still elite and if there good young players take the next step they could be great this season.

I expect BB, as is his proclivity, to draft a LT candidate who he will convert to G duty. But he has enough now to have an improved line. Fleming and/or Cannon are destined for Guard duty, IMHO.

The O-lines average athletic ability, as measured by round drafted, is probably the highest it has ever been. Usually it was a second round LT, and other wise a higher pick somewhere else, and then UDFAs elsewhere. Now they can already field a line of 1-4th round talent everywhere on the O_line. Now BB will have more round 1-4 athletic talents starting, and likely have a few more as backups too.

With four young first and second round athletes on the D_line and Ninko in addition the D_line is young and seasoned and well stocked as is right now.

Both Patriot trenches are well manned.

supafly · Apr 10, 2015

AzPatsFan said:
To all you chickenlittles who complain aboutteh previousyears secondaries. The Pats did go to 2 Superbowls and came within a mairaculous helmet catch of a 19-0 undefeated season.

The 2007 season had a defense that allowed an average of 17.1 points per game, so I will look forward to seeing where you're trying to go with this.....

Overall, I agree that the secondary has had some poor positional groupings (see: 2011), and even then we almost won the SB. It sure is doing things the hard way, though.

RayClay · Apr 11, 2015

Our excellent young team has a year more experience and a Super bowl win for confidence.

Complaining you don't get as many toys as lasyt year is pointless, we need to build on our strengths and adjust to losses we couldn't match without destroying the discipline that gets us to the playoffs year after year, without fail.

I think we'll have a good secondary, different and without Revis. I'm guessing our pass rush could be awesome and that's before the draft and FA plays out. Our linebacker corps should end up better as the year goes along.

Our passing game should definitely be better, just a matter of how much. Our TE situation, definitely better. It's a buyer's market for running backs and I could see us improving over the up and down of Ridley. I like Ridley, but i think there was something in his stability besides the atrocious fumbles [not statistically, but just the carelessness]. woudn't be surprised to see some effective runner + 3rd down back combination that might actually deliver more consistent production then Ridley Vereen. Add that too Blount and special teamer Bolden and there's continuity. Gray needs to win a job IMO.

RayClay · Apr 11, 2015

We will be worse at the DT position, barring a trade for Ngata. It astounds me that people actually think we just need a fat guy to replace Wilfork. That's like saying any fat guy could be an NHL goaltender because he covers the space. In my informal research, as I watched the SB over just for pleasure, I noticed wilfork handling two guys, then making the tackle.

I decided to play the first half over and over and in slow motion looking for Vince, Branch and Siliga. Try it yourself, there's even a copy on youtube. anyone thinking Branch is just taking over from Vince because he's big is in for a shock. To say Vince is twice as good as branch, is not giving him enough credit. Vince, double team every play, either blows it up, or rides it into the area of attack and makes the play. Branch? Handled easily by one OL, usually on skates and ridden out away from the play. Siliga, often caught in traffic, losing footing.

It's a necessary transition, as i expect a much more attacking defense with Easley, Sheard added to the mix, but it has to be patched so we're not the Colts. Maybe Antonio brown is enough?

Interior DL, CB areas to watch, though emphasis on the pass rush might make theses secondary issues on a new team.

RayClay · Apr 11, 2015

An aside. In prehistoric days, we didn't have instant replay, youtube, sportcenter etc., at least not all of it. There was an hour long show on about Hannah during his career, and this was gold, because how could you sit and watch the OL and keep up with the game?

I knew Hannah was great from the newspapers, but OL isolations weren't available until this show. what a shock. Hannah pulls to the right, has one defender head and one behind as he heads toward the sideline. Obviously he needs to pick one and the RB behind is patiently moving and waiting for the opening. Hannah accelerates and the trailer does too. He looks the lead defender in the eye and cuts back causing the two to be right in front of him, then he puts both elbows out and explodes into them decleating both like a cartoon. The running back was so shocked, he stumbled and almost coughed up the ball, but carefully ran over the dead bodies, where once there was a defense.

I know I've told that one before, but it was a jaw dropper for me. Even the old and injured Vince made plays like that, taking on two guys and or making the play, time after time, so don't expect a replacement, you'll be disappointed.

A patch will do.

Jackson 2 · Apr 11, 2015

gtfanboy said:
Just give TB12 more weapons...

I swear he can carry us to the superbowl if he had the talent (RB not withstanding ofcourse) around him...

His receiving talent is easily good enough now.

mgteich · Apr 11, 2015

Jackson 2 said:
His receiving talent is easily good enough now.

Belichick looked for an addition in free agency. Perhaps he doesn't think that "good enough" is good enough.

That being said, we have a healthy Amendola to add to Edelman and LaFell. And we have some additional players who might make the team and contribute: Dobson, Tyms, Dorsey, Gibson, Boyce, and Krause.

mgteich · Apr 11, 2015

RayClay said:
Our excellent young team has a year more experience and a Super bowl win for confidence.

Complaining you don't get as many toys as lasyt year is pointless, we need to build on our strengths and adjust to losses we couldn't match without destroying the discipline that gets us to the playoffs year after year, without fail.

I think we'll have a good secondary, different and without Revis. I'm guessing our pass rush could be awesome and that's before the draft and FA plays out. Our linebacker corps should end up better as the year goes along.

Our passing game should definitely be better, just a matter of how much. Our TE situation, definitely better. It's a buyer's market for running backs and I could see us improving over the up and down of Ridley. I like Ridley, but i think there was something in his stability besides the atrocious fumbles [not statistically, but just the carelessness]. woudn't be surprised to see some effective runner + 3rd down back combination that might actually deliver more consistent production then Ridley Vereen. Add that too Blount and special teamer Bolden and there's continuity. Gray needs to win a job IMO.

I agree that complaining is pointless. Analysis of weaknesses is not.
============================
SECONDARY
You think that we'll have a good secondary. I have no reason to believe that.

Are we counting on the free agents Fletcher, McClain and Chekwa?

Are we counting on the players who were questionable on March 3rd to even make the team as a corner (Butler, Dennard and Butler)? Are we counting on a plug in starter to be available at 32?

Or, are we simply "hoping".

This team is the favorite to win the division and to be competing for the AFC Championship, even without a good secondary.
================
RUNNING BACKS
You say that there is a buyer's marker for running backs who would be an upgrade to Ridley and Vereen. Are you talking about free agency? Are you talking about the 3rd and 4th round of the draft. Where do you expect to get players more productive and consistent than Ridley and Vereen?
=========
PASS RUSH
Yes, the pass rush could be awesome, or it could be about what we had last year. We've seen nothing from Easley yet. Again, you seem to be hoping for the draft to produce a top edge rusher.
=======
DRAFT
You have identified three positions where you expect that we'll find improvement, presumably in the draft: pass rusher, running back, and 3rd down running back. Is this somehow your priority list?

JoeSixPat · Apr 11, 2015

Let's give a little credit to the OP - this has turned into a long and interesting thread

It seems to me Belichick is always thinking one step ahead - and the decisions he makes each offseason has to take so many things into account, it goes well beyond a simple answer the question about improving the team

Last season was largely an adaptation to get by Denver and into the Super Bowl for which Revis, a supposed game stopper for the bigger arms, was the $12 million solution.

This season, given where Manning and the Broncos are now with a new coach and fewer personnell, I think Belichick weighed keeping certain players he was going to need to re-sign this season (AND next!), and knew that the shut down corner was not a higher/more expensive priority it was last season - a least not for what it would have cost in cutting or not re-signing certain other players

Belichick will do what he always does - have quality players in well defined roles, who might not be the biggest names, but will work together as a unit and do what needs to be done.

The most important factor of course is the protection of Tom Brady - so I expect to see heavier investment there, especially given the fact that Connelly played 78% of the snaps.

Even without Belichick's ability to groom players, utilize role players, and adapt his own typical schemes to keep opposing teams off balance, if the OL can just protect Brady they'll always be Super Bowl contenders.

So as it's April, and we have SO much more activity yet to come in player acquisition, while the original question is one that can't yet be answered, it did spark an interesting discussion that does get to the heart of what makes the Patriots so good!

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