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Re: OT: Raider CB ASOMUGHA A FREE AGENT Pats will have more critical needs than a 2nd Pro Bowl level CB. that would be awesom sure, but they are likely going to need some help on O Line and perhaps on D Line, those needs will be more pressing

I mean, it happens more than your post would apply. I believe the Pats/Giants SB fell all the way from -14 to -11 this week the line on the Chiefs opened at +1 +115 (at Pinnacle) and has fallen all the way to +3 +104 I got Jets +2.5 -110 earlier this week, by kickoff last night it went to +2...

if you think Baltimore is just slightly better than Pittburgh, it doesn't make any sense that they have A LOT better chance of advancing. the bye is a gigantic edge for Pittburgh. there is close to a 40% chance Baltimore doesn't even win this weekend

the single best ranking is the actual Futures odds Odds To Win The Super Bowl SAT 1/8 WILL THE PATRIOTS WIN THE SUPER BOWL? 01:30 PM 4103 Yes +178 4104 No -198 SAT 1/8 WILL THE JETS WIN THE SUPER BOWL? 01:30 PM 4105 Yes +2850 4106 No -4350 SAT 1/8 WILL THE STEELERS WIN THE SUPER...

Ravens are easily, easily the best of these 3 teams they are the single most likely team for us to face, however is it more likely we will play EITHER the Chiefs OR the Jets

the only teams that worry me are the teams who could throw for 450 yards against us and win 42-35 or something. if we have a weakness that can be exploited, it's the secondary (yeah yeah we have looked better the last 2 weeks, but 1 was vs an awful Jets pass offense and the other was in a...

except when they don't

Traditionally, sports betting has been assumed to following a market clearing model where the sportsbook essentially just acts as a middleman, matching bets for a fee. More recent research on sports markets has challenged that idea, suggesting that sportsbooks may act to "take positions" to...

lolol. that "point here or there" is how professional sports bettors make there living. you are trivializing the single most important thing in profitable sports betting - line shopping no - sports betting over the phone (and then internet) has been illegal for decades in the US. you don't...

umm, likewise? do you not understand they are derivatives of the same thing? do you really think that when a point spread of -3 -110 moves to -3 -120 the moneyline stays the same? yeah I worked at one for 5 years. no, you don't. books are distinct businesses. they each have 2 goals...

you have no idea what you're talking about - when 1 moves, the other moves no, not always. they sometimes take positions sportsbook.com is far, far bigger than any Vegas sports book. in fact it's probably bigger than all of them combined

Re: Schedule Analysis putting a "W" next to a team you are favored to beat, and adding those up, is a very flawed way to project wins. it treats being a very small favorite (say, home again the Jets) and being a huge favorite (say home against Cleveland) as the same. obviously thats not right...

you still answered your own question in your first post. assume for the sake of argument, that coaches down 4 make better decisions b/c they need a TD. it doesn't even matter, b/c teams down 4 points come back to tie or win less often than teams down 3 points. you can make correct, aggresive...

btw, I have seen teams play for this plenty of times. it wouldn't have been THAT strange. wrong and dumb, yes, but teams do it all the time.

the drive ended with the Chargers having 2 TO's and over 20 seconds left. the clock wasn't really the factor you are making it out to be...the Chargers had plenty of time to do whatever they wanted, they just threw incomplete 3 times. the play calling was aggresive and their clock management...

sure there is doubt! on 1st and 10 from our 35, Rivers THREW over the middle. incomplete. on 2nd and 10, then THREW DEEP on 3rd, then threw again, for 8 yards does that really look like a conservative team to you? conservative would have meant 3 runs between the tackles, gaining 3 yards each...

also, I don't get why this thread exists. you answer the question yourself in your second sentence as a fan, I want to win. ergo, I want to be up by 4. if you are more comfortable being up by 3 than 4, you aren't thinking clearly

no, you are confusing and combining issues. coaches SHOULD always make the decision which maximizes their win %. the fact that they don't act rationally doesn't mean you would rather need a TD than a FG. that's completely crazy.

well of course if you go for it and miss, you look like an idiot. but that's not even close to the right way to analyze the situation you need to estimate: % chance of FG success (+ % chance of Miami coming from behind to score a winning FG) % chance of TD success (+ % chance of Miami coming...

going for it is pretty clearly correct. Advanced NFL Stats explains why the more interesting decision was Pittsburgh's. down by 2 points with 2:28 to play. the Steelers faced 4th and goal from inside the 1. They elected to kick a FG, and hung on to win 23-22 I think if you don't have an...