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Efficiently Spending On Defense


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Not fine and stinks are not the same thing.
You don't seem to understand what primary means even though I have explained it many times.
The Patriots pass rush was not good. The most important facets of the pass rush are the DEs. Jones was effective, if we had 2 of him(healthy), we would not have had a bad pass rush. Ninkovich was not a good pass rusher. He wasn't pathetic, but he wasn't good enough. He was better than Wilfork,Love or Deaderick but he plays a critical pass rushing role, meaning his role failing is a bigger issue, therefore the primary issue with the pass rush was LDE.
Whether he got 8 sacks or 6 or 10 if all of the other plays were the same (ie the big lack of pass rush pressure overall) he would have been the same problem. (As an analogy if a DT makes 10 tackles for loss, but allows 5 ypc in his area, and another has 4 TFL but only allows 3.5ypc, there is no doubt who was a better run defender and the 'showy' stat misrepresents that)

I would give Ninkovich a C- as a pass rusher. He gets plusses for effort and motor, and not giving up on a play. He is good at making plays when the QB is flushed toward him. His one on one skills in beating a blocker to rush the QB probably rate a D or D-. (These grades are on a scale of starting NFL DE)
I like Ninkovich. He brings good things to the table, including effort, versatility and experience. As a starting LDE he is a C- (maybe a D because he is way to small to play the run vs a RT). As a starting 43 OLB he is a C. As a starting 34 OLB he is a C- in a scheme where he is designated rusher, and C in a scheme where he rushes not so much.
As a bench player who is first LB off the bench, as well as in the mix to play DE as a reserve he is a B+.

Fixing the pass rush is critical IMO. The pass defense problems we have had are as much due to rush as coverage.
Any pass rush can be negated by getting the ball out quickly. But doing that means you make the secondary's job 10x easier. The threat of a pass rush automatically forces the offense into quick developing short passes, and the secondary has less field to cover.
Our scheme has historically dared offenses to throw the ball down the field on slower developing plays on early downs, particularly 1st and 10. Playing 2 gap with VW, Love and Ninkovich as 3 of your rushers gives the offense absolutely no concern running slow developing plays, and the secondary must cover the entire field. Today, with the passing game rules, there isn't a secondary in the league that can cover under those conditions. We need to have a pass rush that can force teams to limit 1st and 10 passing to shorter, quicker hits, and allow the secondary to play tighter. If you took the AFC probowl secondary and asked them to cover the way ours had to on 1st down, they would get picked apart.
We need a strong pass rusher across from Jones. Someone who affects the way the offense operates. IMO, it is the #1 way that this team could be improved.
Secondly, we need 4 guys on the DL in sub packages who are capable of beating blockers in pass rush on a consistent basis. We have 1. We may have another in Armstead from the DT spot, and another in Cunningham from the DT spot. If both of them can fill that role, we are good there, but I'd like to add another to be sure. We can find that guy in many places.

My #1 priority would be to add the 'bookend' to Jones to transform the defense.
That can come in Free Agency, we could attempt to do it in the draft.
We still have other needs to fill, particularly S/CB and WR, but 'adequate' at those spots and excellent at pass rushing DE makes us a better team than adequate at pass rushing DE and spending heavily at those spots.

That is the way I see it.

Fair enough. Thanks for the clarification.

As for your thoughts on improving the pass rush, I think you make some good points. Do you have any particular players in mind they should go after, either in the draft or free agency?
 
You can't measure defensive players with stats.
Watching the games, it is easy to tell that Ninkovich struggles to get any reasonable amount of pressure.
He's a nice guy, a versatile player and he is out on the field enough to show up making some plays now and then, but as one of the primary guys we rely on to pressure the QB, he is not close to good enough.
He should actually be the '8th front 7 guy' backing up LBs and DEs, playing some in base and sub, and being a good fill in when there are injuries.
Thats just who he is.
And of course the guy who fails to pressure the passer on a team that stinks at pressuring the passer is one of the biggest problems.
Your depiction of Ninkovich is just ludicrous. I have no idea why you have such a blind spot. But that neither here nor there. Clearly you aren't going to change your opinion on this regardless of the evidence to the contrary, so there is no reason to debate the issue.

But here is something I'd like to broach. Why do we need a "dominant" pass rusher. Back during the superbowl era, the Pats ranked in the top five in sacks WITHOUT having anyone close to being a top pass rusher.

IMHO one of the reasons the Pats pass rush has been lacking was because of the lack of secondary talent made it necessary for the Pats NOT be aggressive defensively. Up until the last few games of last season, the Pats have been VERY conservative the last 3 years.

I think the that the talent gap has been bridged to some extent over the last few years. I believe that one way or the other the secondary play will continue to improve. That means to me that the defense as a whole will improve the pass rush because the defense will become more aggressive. That the blitz rate will grow from the 15% level to the 30% level, and that stat alone will greatly improve the pass rush, WITHOUT the need to find a singular "dominant" pass rusher.

Granted its certainly not a bad thing to have a great pass rusher, but its not necessary, the Pats had one of the better pass rushes in the league WITHOUT having a single double digit pass rusher when they were a top scoring defense.

The point being is that while the pass rush needs to be improved, no doubt, I think its a matter of tweaking the rush rather than overhauling it. And as far as improving the interior pass rush, there are 30 teams who are looking to improve that area of the game, so for the Pats to vast improve on that aspect of the game will require a large bit of luck either through the draft, FA, or development of a current player
 
George wilson, who will be 32 by next season, can be a great, cheap fit. He was ranked 12th as a safety last season(idk if it was 12 overall or 12 in coverage). He can cover, hit, and make big plays.

I think George Wilson would be a great fit. In fact, ditch Gregory and bring him in. I am one who still has faith in Tavon Wilson. So with the mindset that Wilson is the future, the best decision would be to sign a vet S rather than shelling out a high 1st rounder to a safety. The best thing about Wilson is that he'll come relatively cheap. We could spend the bigger bucks on a higher level vet such as Reed or Woodson. But overall, Wilson would be the best value for us.
 
Partially, I agree with Andy's opinion. I do think we could use another outside pass rusher and that Ninkovich isn't necessarily a consistent option.

BUT, that doesn't mean he's not a good pass rusher. Ninkovich is perfect as a 3rd down pass rusher, he can come in and consistently bring in clutch performances. I don't think he's quite the answer, but definitely not the problem.
 
My gut still says that the patriots are better in a base 3-4, 2 gap.

Chandler Jones is strictly a 4-3 DE, however. There is no way he could ever play effectively
either a 3-4 OLB or a 3-4 DE.
 
My gut still says that the patriots are better in a base 3-4, 2 gap.

How would this improve the Pats pass defense? The pass rush would be slowed because your defensive lineman would be dancing with offensive lineman rather than shooting gaps to get after the QB. And, if your 3-4 personnel is Deaderick, Love,Wilfork, Jones,Mayo,Spikes and Hightower, then you can make the argument that Wilfork is the 2nd best cover guy of the group. Yes, I'm exaggerating a little but not much.

It doesn't matter really because with that alignment they'd be in the nickel or dime 95% of the time anyway.
 
Chandler Jones is strictly a 4-3 DE, however. There is no way he could ever play effectively
either a 3-4 OLB or a 3-4 DE.

How did you arrive at this conclusion?
 
Chandler Jones is strictly a 4-3 DE, however. There is no way he could ever play effectively
either a 3-4 OLB or a 3-4 DE.
Sure he could. Willie McGinest was no more OLB than Jones is.
The difference is with Jones we have to run the 34 where he is always the 4th rusher rather than the version where either OLB (or sometimes ILB) can be the 4th rusher which is more difficult for an offense to deal with.
McGinest almost never covered anyone, about as much as any 43 DE does on a zone blitz, or disgusied coverage. Jones can do that.
 
Your depiction of Ninkovich is just ludicrous.
Calling Ninkoivch a C- pass rusher, and average starting LB below average starting DE is ludicrous? I guess you are clearing his space in Canton:rolleyes:



I have no idea why you have such a blind spot. But that neither here nor there. Clearly you aren't going to change your opinion on this regardless of the evidence to the contrary, so there is no reason to debate the issue.
What evidence would you be giving that would overcome what I watched him do on the football field?

But here is something I'd like to broach. Why do we need a "dominant" pass rusher. Back during the superbowl era, the Pats ranked in the top five in sacks WITHOUT having anyone close to being a top pass rusher.
Now we are at the point of ludicrous. We dont need _______ because we won without _______.
That argument could be used for any need the team has.

IMHO one of the reasons the Pats pass rush has been lacking was because of the lack of secondary talent made it necessary for the Pats NOT be aggressive defensively. Up until the last few games of last season, the Pats have been VERY conservative the last 3 years.
Well you are entitled to your opinion. I see a DL that almost never gets pressure and causes the secondary to cover forever.
What does our pass D look like when we face a poor pass blocking team? We own them.

I think the that the talent gap has been bridged to some extent over the last few years. I believe that one way or the other the secondary play will continue to improve. That means to me that the defense as a whole will improve the pass rush because the defense will become more aggressive. That the blitz rate will grow from the 15% level to the 30% level, and that stat alone will greatly improve the pass rush, WITHOUT the need to find a singular "dominant" pass rusher.
We need more pass rush talent. The easiest way is upgrading the mopst critcial rushers. If you want to take the time to upgrade small amounts at all positions, I don't think that will help all to soon.
We have a severe dearth of individual pass rushing skill on this team.

Granted its certainly not a bad thing to have a great pass rusher, but its not necessary, the Pats had one of the better pass rushes in the league WITHOUT having a single double digit pass rusher when they were a top scoring defense.
On what planet do they have one of the better pass rushes in the league?

The point being is that while the pass rush needs to be improved, no doubt, I think its a matter of tweaking the rush rather than overhauling it.
We lack talent. That means overhaul not tweak.

And as far as improving the interior pass rush, there are 30 teams who are looking to improve that area of the game, so for the Pats to vast improve on that aspect of the game will require a large bit of luck either through the draft, FA, or development of a current player
Every team is trying to be good at everything. I don't think thats a reason to give up.
 
I think George Wilson would be a great fit. In fact, ditch Gregory and bring him in. I am one who still has faith in Tavon Wilson. So with the mindset that Wilson is the future, the best decision would be to sign a vet S rather than shelling out a high 1st rounder to a safety. The best thing about Wilson is that he'll come relatively cheap. We could spend the bigger bucks on a higher level vet such as Reed or Woodson. But overall, Wilson would be the best value for us.

Scratch that, George signed with the Titans...
 
Could've came cheaper than Gregory.....

Some of the reasons that may come to mind:

--Belichick plans on addressing the safety position in free agency with a more long-term move

--He may be looking at some of the vets like Reed and Woodson as 1-2 yr stopgaps for immediate future improvement

--It might be addressed in the draft with a high or mid-round pick

--They may be higher on Tavon Wilson than we are giving credit to, after all it seemed that Belichick must have really liked him to take him when he did

--George Wilson's skillset or potential fit just wan't impressive enough

--any combo of the above
 
Some of the reasons that may come to mind:

--Belichick plans on addressing the safety position in free agency with a more long-term move Doubt it because I think he must still have some faith in Wilson.

--He may be looking at some of the vets like Reed and Woodson as 1-2 yr stopgaps for immediate future improvement Very possible. In my opinion this would be the most logical thing to do.

--It might be addressed in the draft with a high or mid-round pick Again, it'd be like giving up on Wilson unless they're planning on moving McCourty back to CB.

--They may be higher on Tavon Wilson than we are giving credit to, after all it seemed that Belichick must have really liked him to take him when he did Do remember he had 4 picks last year, so there's potential.

--George Wilson's skillset or potential fit just wan't impressive enough Possibly, otherwise I don't see why else Bill would've passed him up for so cheap.

--any combo of the above

Overall good evaluation, Supafly.
 
How did you arrive at this conclusion?

By watching him play. He's too weak below the waist to effectively stack at the LOS as a 3-4 DE,
and he's not athletic enough to cover/blitz as a 3-4 OLB.
 
McGinest almost never covered anyone, about as much as any 43 DE does on a zone blitz, or disgusied coverage. Jones can do that.

Jones can do what? Cover? He doesn't have the change of direction ability to do that.
 
trade up next year for stephon tuitt then we will have one of the most dominant pass rushes in the league for years to come
 
Some of the reasons that may come to mind:

--They may be higher on Tavon Wilson than we are giving credit to, after all it seemed that Belichick must have really liked him to take him when he did

I'm glad to see this mentioned, and have been wondering about that. There's a reasonable likelihood that he makes a big jump in the second year as his recognitions are quicker and synaptic connections more robust, leading him to faster, more accurate decisions. A half second improvement can make a huge difference back there.
 
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