My Blueprint for the Defense

[Sciz]

Not really you can take the $3.6m divide it out over 2014 and 2015 with at $1.8m with a $1.8m salary guaranteed for 2014, and I guess worst case we take a $1.8m cap hit 2015.

The $3.6M cap hit that we're talking about is the prorated portion of his signing bonus. That money cannot be moved in any possible way. It is absolutely hitting the 2014 salary cap. There are no ifs, ands, or buts about it. There is no way to move a cap hit from a prorated signing bonus to a future year.

 

[Brady6]

It's the definition of sunk cost. Has nothing to do with whether Wilfork renegotiates.

you must have skipped the first day of class.

3.6m is a sunk cost it's irrelevent. Wilfork for 7.5 in additional money. The fact that he counts for 3.6m already means nothing. You don't net the 3.6m against the 7.5. The 7.5m is new money new cap hits. Total cap hits for Wilfork next year will be 3.6m or 11m. Although the 11m might be spaced out.

This is so basic it's rudiculous.

It is only a sunk cost if you determine that you have no way to get your $3.6m worth out of Wilfork, which I don’t believe to be true. For a minimal risk say $1-$2 million against the cap in 2015 you could potentially get the 2012 Wilfork.

 

[Brady6]

The $3.6M cap hit that we're talking about is the prorated portion of his signing bonus. That money cannot be moved in any possible way. It is absolutely hitting the 2014 salary cap. There are no ifs, ands, or buts about it. There is no way to move a cap hit from a prorated signing bonus to a future year.

Well that is dumb. I am not a cap expert, I thought you could roll it into a new deal.

 

[kennyb]

Not really you can take the $3.6m divide it out over 2014 and 2015 with at $1.8m with a $1.8m salary guaranteed for 2014, and I guess worst case we take a $1.8m cap hit 2015.

No you can't. Starting point for cap hits is 3.6m. That's if he isn't here or his salary is zero.

The old 3.6m has to hit the cap whether he's here or not. His new contract is independent of this 3.6m hitting. It hits no matter what. New money spent hits the cap In ADDITION to the old 3.6m not in place of it.

 

[Brady6]

No you can't. Starting point for cap hits is 3.6m. That's if he isn't here or his salary is zero.

The old 3.6m has to hit the cap whether he's here or not. His new contract is independent of this 3.6m hitting. It hits no matter what. New money spent hits the cap In ADDITION to the old 3.6m not in place of it.

As I said to Sciz I did not know that, I am not a cap expert and thought that, it could be rolled into a new deal.

If Wilfork is healthy and able to play, there are options that would mean this is not a sunk cost. Everyone is assuming that Wilfork cannot return from an Achilles injury, which he suffered at age 31.

The goal, most likely, will be to keep Wilfork's average in the top five defensive tackles in the NFL, and right now, that's at least $8.45 million, so over five years you're looking at $42.25 million. Even though he is 32, extending four additional years would create five years in signing bonus pro-ration (the maximum allowed). The $3.6 million signing bonus from the current contract must stay in 2014. If we use Brady's new base salaries exactly, we can tack on a $10 million signing bonus, and a roster or workout bonus of $1 million each year, with an added $250,000 in the third year (midpoint of the contract escalator), we're right at the $42.25 million.

The $7.6 million cap figure for 2014 clears $4 million, and puts $12 million in cash in Wilfork's hand. The only debatable point from there would be guaranteed years for base salaries. I'd recommend fully guaranteeing 2014-15, and making 2016 for injury only (maybe).

Restructuring Vince Wilfork's deal in a way that works for both sides - Going Deep - Boston.com

 

[mayoclinic]

As I said to Sciz I did not know that, I am not a cap expert and thought that, it could be rolled into a new deal.

If Wilfork is healthy and able to play, there are options that would mean this is not a sunk cost. Everyone is assuming that Wilfork cannot return from an Achilles injury, which he suffered at age 31.

Restructuring Vince Wilfork's deal in a way that works for both sides - Going Deep - Boston.com

Quoting a ridiculous proposal from a local writer doesn't make extending Wilfork any more sensible.

Wilfork is not healthy. He's ruptured his Achilles. He's 32, in the prime age for Achilles injuries. His weight puts additional stress on that area, and the nature of his role puts tremendous loads on that particular anatomy. He has a huge family history of diabetes, which means that his genetics for wound healing are probably not ideal. Medically, that is an enormous red flag.

Giving an extension to a healthy Wilfork is one thing. Treating an injured Wilfork as though he were healthy is a wild gamble, with low probability of success.

 

[Snake Eyes]

If Wilfork is healthy and able to play, there are options that would mean this is not a sunk cost. Everyone is assuming that Wilfork cannot return from an Achilles injury, which he suffered at age 31.

I don't think anyone is saying he cannot come back, it's just a matter of how much you want to bet, in my case not much.

Also, at what point is the determination made whether he can play? If you want to wait until training camp rolls around you've already eliminated the options that cutting him would free up. If you cut him you can always resign him if he can play, and I'd say the odds are that if he does come back it won't be for a bit, and that he won't be nearly the same player.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I don't think anyone is saying he cannot come back, it's just a matter of how much you want to bet, in my case not much.

Also, at what point is the determination made whether he can play? If you want to wait until training camp rolls around you've already eliminated the options that cutting him would free up. If you cut him you can always resign him if he can play, and I'd say the odds are that if he does come back it won't be for a bit, and that he won't be nearly the same player.

I think the best option would be to restructure him, turning $3.5-4mil of salary into NLTBE incentives which would save that money against the 2014 cap. If he comes to camp and can't play then you cut him and save the rest of his base salary against the cap. At that stage the money wouldn't help sign any free agents but it would free up more money throughout the year and perhaps give them more cap to roll over at the end of the year. To me that is the best option because you create some space for free agency, give him the opportunity to come to camp and prove himself but also leave you an out if he can't play.

 

[VJCPatriot]

It's been a great run. It's over. I think we had a chance with the 2011 draft and we went offense despite having an aging and slow defense. Two 1's, two 2's and two 3's. What do we have on defense from that? Just Chandler Jones because we traded back. Terrible.

It's been a great run? It's over? REALLY? The Pats have the 2nd youngest roster in the ENTIRE NFL and you say it's OVER? Dude, snap out of it!

Consider that the Pats roster that made it to the AFCCG was missing 3 pro bowl level players in Mayo, Wilfork, and Gronk. And we'll be getting those guys back. Add to that if we draft WISELY and sign a few good FREE AGENTS. This team is RIGHT BACK in the HUNT!

As for reshaping the defense. Well, Seattle is the blueprint. It's a copycat league, and I feel no shame in copying the best defense out there right now. Seattle's performance in the Superbowl was reminiscent of the '85 Bears.

Right now I think the Pats really need a physical safety in the mold of a Kam Chancellor who can enforce the backend. Make those Denver receivers hear footsteps, and if they' don't have their head on a swivel, make em pay with punishing hits whenever they catch the ball over the middle.

We also need to retain Talib. Mostly because he's a known quantity and a DIFFERENCE MAKER on D. If he stays healthy, it may well be the Pats in the Superbowl instead of Denver.

We need one more huge pocket collapsing DT, a Knighton type would be great because we can't count on Wilfork being back 100%.

Offensively we need to shore up the TE depth. An athletic mismatch producing move TE would be great. We also need to shore up the middle of that OL. Brady's one huge weakness is if the defense can push up the middle and collapse that pocket because he simply doesn't have confidence throwing when that happens.

Are these changes doable? Yup. But the Pats really need a great offseason and need to make the most of their picks and cap space to make it happen. In 2001 we had an underrated but great crop of free agents, plus Tom Brady happened. If we get that great rookie crop + free agent crop ADDED on top of a young and athletic core of players that just made it to the AFCCG I believe we can legitimately challenge for the Lombardi next season.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think the best option would be to restructure him, turning $3.5-4mil of salary into NLTBE incentives which would save that money against the 2014 cap. If he comes to camp and can't play then you cut him and save the rest of his base salary against the cap. At that stage the money wouldn't help sign any free agents but it would free up more money throughout the year and perhaps give them more cap to roll over at the end of the year. To me that is the best option because you create some space for free agency, give him the opportunity to come to camp and prove himself but also leave you an out if he can't play.

I respect you tremendously, but I don't think that will help very much if Wilfork can't play effectively in 2014, and I think it is a very long shot that he will be able to do so. In that situation we'd have Kelly, Siliga, Jones, Armstead and Vellano at DT. Not enough IMO.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I respect you tremendously, but I don't think that will help very much if Wilfork can't play effectively in 2014, and I think it is a very long shot that he will be able to do so. In that situation we'd have Kelly, Siliga, Jones, Armstead and Vellano at DT. Not enough IMO.

By restructuring his base salary to NLTBE incentives you aren't adding any guaranteed money, so if during camp we see Wilfork doesn't have anything left we cut him and save the rest of the contract. That way we can at least find out if he can still play while freeing cap space to make other moves. I don't see any downside to that.

I am all for upgrading the DT position, especially through the draft because I'm not a huge fan of the FA DT's (I do like the FA DE market though). I know you like Linval Joseph but I think he will be overpaid by someone, probably the Giants to avoid him hitting free agency. I wouldn't mind double dipping in the draft with two highly rated DTs, for example Nix and Donald if we could make it happen.

Give me:

NT- Wilfork, Nix, Siliga
DT- Jones, Donald, Kelly, Armstead, Vellano

Let them fight it out for 5 or 6 spots.

 

[mayoclinic]

By restructuring his base salary to NLTBE incentives you aren't adding any guaranteed money, so if during camp we see Wilfork doesn't have anything left we cut him and save the rest of the contract. That way we can at least find out if he can still play while freeing cap space to make other moves. I don't see any downside to that.

I am all for upgrading the DT position, especially through the draft because I'm not a huge fan of the FA DT's (I do like the FA DE market though). I know you like Linval Joseph but I think he will be overpaid by someone, probably the Giants to avoid him hitting free agency. I wouldn't mind double dipping in the draft with two highly rated DTs, for example Nix and Donald if we could make it happen.

Give me:

NT- Wilfork, Nix, Siliga
DT- Jones, Donald, Kelly, Armstead, Vellano

Let them fight it out for 5 or 6 spots.

Of Wilfork's current $11M cap hit, $3.6 is from his signing bonus which is sunk cost. We're on the books for that no matter what. If we cut him and moved on we'd save $7.5M. If I understand you correctly, you are suggesting that we take his current $7.5M base and convert most of it to NLTBE. Presumably we'd have to pay him the vet minimum salary (just under $1M), and probably more, so we'd incur an immediate cap hit for that amount. Assuming Wilfork would be willing to do that (not a given by any means) it would certainly make more sense than the extensions with more guaranteed money that have been proposed, but I still think you are tying up money that you could be using in FA. I also think it's unrealistic to assume that the Pats are going to use 2 1st round picks (or close to it) on Nix and Donald given all their other needs. The only way I'd even consider that is if I knew Wilfork wasn't in the picture, in which case it would just make more sense to cut him.

 

[yopats]

Of Wilfork's current $11M cap hit, $3.6 is from his signing bonus which is sunk cost. We're on the books for that no matter what. If we cut him and moved on we'd save $7.5M. If I understand you correctly, you are suggesting that we take his current $7.5M base and convert most of it to NLTBE. Presumably we'd have to pay him the vet minimum salary (just under $1M), and probably more, so we'd incur an immediate cap hit for that amount. Assuming Wilfork would be willing to do that (not a given by any means) it would certainly make more sense than the extensions with more guaranteed money that have been proposed, but I still think you are tying up money that you could be using in FA. I also think it's unrealistic to assume that the Pats are going to use 2 1st round picks (or close to it) on Nix and Donald given all their other needs. The only way I'd even consider that is if I knew Wilfork wasn't in the picture, in which case it would just make more sense to cut him.

I agree.. cutting Wilfork is the option I am leaning towards as well. Although I don't jump aboard the Linval Joseph train.. I do take a similar tact.

I think Silliga is going to replace VW personally :bricks:

Draft. assuming we trade Mallet.

#33 - A. Donald (Penetrating DT)
#3rd round - Justin Ellis (Run Stuff DT) 6-2 343

Free agency - Sign Arthur Jones.
Silga, Ellis, Donald, A. Jones, A. Armstead, C. Jones,

Also through the draft you pick up an additional 3rd rounder after trading back from the first and get.

3rd. Christian Jones LB from FST
4th. Aaron Lynch DE USF

And finally grab Aaron Colvin (CB for redshirt year)

The other big free agency move would be to grab TJ Ward as our hard hitting and physical safety to go in tandem with McCourty.

DL - Silga, Ellis, Donald, A. Jones, A. Armstead, C. Jones,
DE- Chandler Jones, Nink, Buchanan, , Armstead , Lynch

Safeties - TJ Mack , McCourty, Harmon, Wilson

CB - Talib, Dennard, Arrington , Ryan , (Colvin IR)

LB - Mayo, Collins, Hightower, Fletcher, Smith

Interested in your thoughts brother Mayo!

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's a bump of my mock from the mock draft thread, which addresses the defensive goals that I discussed in post #33 as well as in the OP:

- Trade Mallett for #33. I'll keep this for now.
- Cut Wilfork, sign UFA DT Linval Joseph (NY Giants)
- Resign Talib and Blount
- Sign UFA TE Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)
- Edelman walks, sign UFA WR Riley Cooper/Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia)
- Sign UFA OC Alex Mack (Cleveland)
- Wait to sign a UDFA QB and a veteran when teams cut down in June
- Gregory, Connolly and Kelly end up getting cut after June 1

Draft:

- Trade 29 to San Francisco for 56 and 61.

- Trade 33 to Jacksonville for 39 and 102. Gus Bradley moves up if Dee Ford is still on the board.

39. Stephon Tuitt, DT/DE, Notre Dame. 6'5" 312#. Big DE who can also play DT. If Aaron Donald is still on the board, he would be tempting.

56. Deone Bucannon, S, Washington St. 6'1" 216#. Pats need a physical enforcer who can cover. Bucannon is in-between Dashon Goldson and Kam Chancellor.

61. Joel Bitonio, OL, Nevada. 6'4" 307#. An immediate upgrade at RG, and a possible 5-position lineman.

- Trade 62 to Cleveland for 69 and their 5th round pick.

69. Marcus Smith, DE/OLB, Louisville. 6' 3 1/2" 258#. Guys who can play in space or play on the line and who can rush the passer give tremendous versatility, as discussed in post #33. Jerry Attaochu (6' 3" 252#) could also be an option.

93. Billy Turner, OL, North Dakota St. 6'5" 312#. More OL help, with another guy who can play tackle or guard, and who has huge upside.

102. Christian Jones, LB, Florida St. 6'3" 236#. Jones can play all 3 LB positions, can cover TEs or WRs 1-on-1, and can be used as a blitzer and sub rusher. Jones and Marcus Smith would add tremendous versatility to the middle of the defense.

124. Richard Rodgers, Move TE, Cal. 6'4" 245#. Arthur Lynch and Xavier Grimble are also options.

5 (from Cleveland). Aaron Lynch, DE, USF. 6'6" 260#. Serious depth as an edge rusher behind Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich.

6a. Antone Exum, DB, Virginia Tech (6' 220#) or Aaron Colvin, CB, Oklahoma (5' 11 1/2" 194#). Big, physical CBs for depth outside. Both have day 2 talent, but fall due to injuries.

6b. Logan Thomas, QB, Virginia Tech. 6'6" 250#. A bit of a gamble, but he has the potential to convert to TE if he bombs at QB. The Pats will bring a veteran in during TC to compete.

6 (comp). Jonathan Dowling, DB, Western Kentucky (6' 1/2" 198#) or Dontae Johnson, DB, North Carolina St. (6' 2 1/2" 199#). Big DBs who can play CB or safety.

6 (comp). Trey Millard, FB/H-back, Oklahoma. 6'3" 253#. Versatile swiss army knife.

7. Colt Lyerla, TE, Oregon. 6'5" 250#. Moon shot.

Defensive goals:

1. Upgrade the DL. Linval Joseph is a run-stopper who can push the pocket and generate some pressure. Stephon Tuitt can be a big LDE or a pressuring DT. Armond Armstead will hopefully be back and call also play both outside or inside. Aaron Lynch has 1st round talent from the neck down. Michael Buchanan will hopefully make a 2nd year leap. Marcus Smith can play on the DL or in space, as can Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower.

2. Upgrade the middle of the defense and get more athletic in space. Collins, Smith and Jones are all fluid played who can match up on TEs and cover a tremendous amount of space, as well as rush the passer.

3. Get bigger and tougher in the secondary. Deone Bucannon would give the Pats a rangy, physical safety that they haven't had since Rodney retired. He'd be our "Kam Chancellor" opposite McCourty. Exum/Colvin and Dowling/Johnson would add size, depth and physicality in the secondary at both safety and CB.

I think this draft would accomplish those goals, as well as upgrade the OL and TE positions on offense.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

If we got that draft I'd be over the moon. A few things:

1. I think your FA signings look a unrealistic but we can roll with it for purposes of demonstration.

2. Millard AND Lyerla would be incredible... but IMO Kraft won't let it happen.

3. I know the media considers him a "faller", but given the lack of classic DE types in this draft, and the way he played his freshman year, I could easily see Aaron Lynch in the top 45 to a team that isn't afraid to take a gamble. He's the most talented pass rusher in the draft after Clowney. Aldon Smith-esque ratio of hand strength to size.

 

[mayoclinic]

If we got that draft I'd be over the moon. A few things:

1. I think your FA signings look a unrealistic but we can roll with it for purposes of demonstration.

2. Millard AND Lyerla would be incredible... but IMO Kraft won't let it happen.

3. I know the media considers him a "faller", but given the lack of classic DE types in this draft, and the way he played his freshman year, I could easily see Aaron Lynch in the top 45 to a team that isn't afraid to take a gamble. He's the most talented pass rusher in the draft after Clowney. Aldon Smith-esque ratio of hand strength to size.

Right now we have about $7.3M in cap space according to Miguel. If the higher salary cap comes in (around $128M) we will have around $9.3M. I'm using MgTeich's $6M number of the rookie pool, PS, and contingency funds, so we would have around $3.3M before cuts/restructures.

Cuts:

- Wilfork ($7.5M -> $10.8M available)
- A. Wilson ($1.2M -> $12M available)
- Sapoaga ($2.5M -> $14.5M available)
- Connolly (if Mack is signed; $3M -> $17.5M available)

In addition, I think we could save another $3M by restructuring McCourty, Gostkowski and Slater, all of whom are in contract years. That would give us $20.5M to address free agency. I wouldn't make any moves on Gregory or Kelly until after the draft, but they could potentially free up almost $5M in additional cap space.

I would estimate the 2014 cap hits for FA signings would be around the following:

- Talib $5M
- A WR like Cooper Riley or Jeremy Maclin - $2-3M
- A TE like Pettigrew - $3M
- Joseph $4M (Kendall Langford's contract had an initial cap hit of only $3M)
- Mack $4-5M (if you look at the contract that Ryan Kalil got, his initial 2011 cap hit was still only $4.6M)
- Fletcher - $0.8M
- Aiken - $0.6M

Those signings total $19.4-$21.4M, so I think I'm at least in the ballpark.

If we signed those players and then picked up a safety like Bucannon and a 3-tech like Donald or Tuitt, then I could see potentially cutting Gregory or Kelly, freeing up another $5M.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

Right now we have about $7.3M in cap space according to Miguel. If the higher salary cap comes in (around $128M) we will have around $9.3M. I'm using MgTeich's $6M number of the rookie pool, PS, and contingency funds, so we would have around $3.3M before cuts/restructures.

Cuts:

- Wilfork ($7.5M -> $10.8M available)
- A. Wilson ($1.2M -> $12M available)
- Sapoaga ($2.5M -> $14.5M available)
- Connolly (if Mack is signed; $2.5M -> $17M available)

In addition, I think we could save another $3M by restructuring McCourty, Gostkowski and Slater, all of whom are in contract years. That would give us $20M to address free agency. I wouldn't make any moves on Gregory or Kelly until after the draft, but they could potentially free up almost $5M in additional cap space.

I would estimate the 2014 cap hits for FA signings would be around the following:

- Talib $5M
- A WR like Cooper or Maclin - $2-3M
- A TE like Pettigrew - $3M
- Joseph $4M (Kendall Langford's contract had an initial cap hit of only $3M)
- Mack $4-5M (if you look at the contract that Ryan Kalil got, his initial 2011 cap hit was still only $4.6M)
- Fletcher - $0.8M
- Aiken - $0.6M

Those signings total $19.4-$21.4M, so I think I'm at least in the ballpark.

If we signed those players and then picked up a safety like Bucannon and a 3-tech like Donald or Tuitt, then I could see potentially cutting Gregory or Kelly, freeing up another $5M.

I see. I'd think getting some of those cap hits - Mack and Talib in particular - would require more extreme backloading of guaranteed money than the Pats usually do with free agents.

Mack is in line for the biggest center deal in the NFL so we'd have to do what Carolina did and really make up for that 4.6 in subsequent years. Same with Talib, he can do better than 5.0 so we'd have to make the deal look good with guarantees. Rather pay him more now and less later than the other way around given the question marks.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Of Wilfork's current $11M cap hit, $3.6 is from his signing bonus which is sunk cost. We're on the books for that no matter what. If we cut him and moved on we'd save $7.5M. If I understand you correctly, you are suggesting that we take his current $7.5M base and convert most of it to NLTBE. Presumably we'd have to pay him the vet minimum salary (just under $1M), and probably more, so we'd incur an immediate cap hit for that amount. Assuming Wilfork would be willing to do that (not a given by any means) it would certainly make more sense than the extensions with more guaranteed money that have been proposed, but I still think you are tying up money that you could be using in FA. I also think it's unrealistic to assume that the Pats are going to use 2 1st round picks (or close to it) on Nix and Donald given all their other needs. The only way I'd even consider that is if I knew Wilfork wasn't in the picture, in which case it would just make more sense to cut him.

For the record, the only reason NLTBE incentives can work here is because he only played a handful of games this year; they're not considered NLTBE if they were met the prior year, and I don't think he would agree to have, say, $1M contingent on him recording X interceptions.

 

[kennyb]

For the record, the only reason NLTBE incentives can work here is because he only played a handful of games this year; they're not considered NLTBE if they were met the prior year, and I don't think he would agree to have, say, $1M contingent on him recording X interceptions.

Right, but if you made the NLTBE incentives games active, % of defensive snaps played, etc...things he would meet IF he were healthy, then that would protect the team and lower his 2014 cap hit.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I see. I'd think getting some of those cap hits - Mack and Talib in particular - would require more extreme backloading of guaranteed money than the Pats usually do with free agents.

Mack is in line for the biggest center deal in the NFL so we'd have to do what Carolina did and really make up for that 4.6 in subsequent years. Same with Talib, he can do better than 5.0 so we'd have to make the deal look good with guarantees. Rather pay him more now and less later than the other way around given the question marks.

Just for the record, Talib could get 5/$50M, with $20M signing bonus, and still have a cap hit of ~$5M for 2014. [Not saying he should or will, merely that the math allows it to happen that way.]