VJCPatriots 1st round NFL mock draft 4/23/09

[VJCPatriot]

#1. Detroit. Matthew Stafford QB. The posturing is just that, they will sign this kid. He has huge bust potential imo, but it's the Detroit Lions so what do you expect?
#2. St Louis. Jason Smith OT. Stud tackle to anchor the line. Pace gone, Smith in.
#3. Kansas City. Eugene Monroe OT. This spot is too early to take a linebacker who's not a passrusher.
#4. Seattle. Brian Orakpo DE. with the top tackles gone, the Seahawks look to acquire the best passrusher availble. New DC Gus Bradley wants a more aggressive defense that forces turnovers and sacks.
#5. Cleveland. B.J. Raji DT. Cleveland's defense gets bigger and more athletic up front.
#6. Cincinnati. Andre Smith OT. Talented but questionable character. Fits Cinci's needs like a glove.
#7. Oakland. Jeremy Maclin WR. Al Davis loves speed and the Raiders have an urgent need at wideout.
#8. Jacksonville. Michael Crabtree WR. Jacksonville can't pass up the stud WR here.
#9. Greenbay. Tyson Jackson DE. Jackson is considered one of the top defensive ends in the draft, the only reason he doesn't go earlier is that he isn't considered much of a passrusher.
#10. San Franciso. Mark Sanchez QB. Sanchez falls precipitiously thanks to Seattle's lack of interest.
#11. New England from Buffalo (#23+#47). Aaron Curry LB. In an improbable move BB moves up for the top linebacker in the draft to pair with Mayo on the inside.
#12. Denver. Peria Jerry DT. Denver needs DL help badly, and Jerry provides immediate help.
#13. Washington. Robert Ayers DE. One of the top passrushers in the draft at the defensive end position.
#14. New Orleans. Malcom Jenkins CB. The 1st corner off the board is Jenkins.
#15. Houston. Brian Cushing OLB. Cushing fits their defense to a tee, supplement concerns aside.
#16. San Diego. Michael Oher OT. The Chargers need to fix the right side of their OL and Oher goes along way towards repairing it.
#17. New York Jets. Josh Freeman QB. With Favre put to pasture, the Jets need to reload at QB.
#18. Denver from Chicago. Rey Maualuga MLB. Denver overhauls their run defense with their 1st round choices.
#19. Arizona from Tampa Bay (Anquan Boldin trade). Aaron Maybin DE/OLB. An explosive passrusher who may be a boom or bust prospect.
#20. Detroit. Evander Hood DT. The Lions need to stop the bleeding in their run D and they need to start up front.
#21. Philadelphia. Beanie Wells RB. The Eagles take the best player available and get a battering ram to complement Westbrook.
#22. Minnesota. Eben Britton OT. Minnesota needs a strong right tackle and they get a tailor made fit in Britton.
#23. Buffalo from New England. Everette Brown. DE. The Bills traded down and still got a solid passrusher to improve their defense.
#24. Atlanta. Clay Matthews OLB. The Falcons need playmakers on defense and Matthews might end up the best of the USC backers.
#25. Miami. Larry English OLB. After stocking his lines in the previous year, Parcells orders up a passrusher to dial up the defensive pressure.
#26. Baltimore. Vontae Davis CB. The Raven's focus on improving their defense which is their bread and butter.
#27. Indianapolis. Kenny Britt WR. The Colts replace the hole left by Harrison's departure.
#28. Buffalo from Philadelphia. Max Unger OG. The Bills draft the versatile Unger with an eye to plugging him in at right guard.
#29. Cleveland from New York Giants (Braylon Edwards trade). Hakeem Nicks WR. Cleveland unloads Edwards and gets a promising young WR at a very affordable contract.
#30. Tennessee. Alex Mack C. The Titans fill their center need with the top rated one in the draft.
#31. Arizona. Knowshown Moreno RB. The Cardinals draft for best value and get the future replacement for Edgerrin James.
#32. Pittsburgh. William Beatty OT. The defending champions sit tight then take the best available tackle to replace an aging Marvel Smith.

** Three trades projected **
New England to #11 for #23+47.
Boldin to Tampa Bay for #19.
Edwards to the NY Giants for #29.

Pats remaining picks:
Round Two, Pick Two (34) Connor Barwin OLB
Round Two, Pick 26 (58) Jamon Meredith OT
Round Three, Pick 25 (89) Chip Vaughn SS
Round Three, Pick 33 (97) Andy Levitre OG
Round Four, Pick 24 (124) Kevin Barnes CB
Round Five, Pick 34 (170) Vance Walker DT
Round Six, Pick 26 (199) Kory Sperry TE
Round Six, Pick 34 (207) Devin Moore RB
Round Seven, Pick 25 (234) Thomas Morstead P

 

[Metaphors]

Nice work. Would love for the Pats to walk away with that haul, but doubt they would be able to get Curry even if he did fall that far. NO, Houston and SD would also be very interested and a team wouldn't have to fall all the way to #23.

 

[mayoclinic]

Nice work. Would love for the Pats to walk away with that haul, but doubt they would be able to get Curry even if he did fall that far. NO, Houston and SD would also be very interested and a team wouldn't have to fall all the way to #23.

But NO and SD have nothing to offer this year - neither has a 2nd round pick, and NO has no 3rd round pick. Houston could offer #46, but they have other needs and it would be a lot to move up 4 spots.

47 is a lot for the Pats to give up - 58 would be more appropriate - but the likely competition for Curry makes it reasonable. And worth it.

 

[The Coon]

Nice work but Id rather trade up for an OT

plus curry will be gone by 11

 

[mayoclinic]

#1. Detroit. Matthew Stafford QB. The posturing is just that, they will sign this kid. He has huge bust potential imo, but it's the Detroit Lions so what do you expect?
#2. St Louis. Jason Smith OT. Stud tackle to anchor the line. Pace gone, Smith in.
#3. Kansas City. Eugene Monroe OT. This spot is too early to take a linebacker who's not a passrusher.
#4. Seattle. Brian Orakpo DE. with the top tackles gone, the Seahawks look to acquire the best passrusher availble. New DC Gus Bradley wants a more aggressive defense that forces turnovers and sacks.
#5. Cleveland. B.J. Raji DT. Cleveland's defense gets bigger and more athletic up front.
#6. Cincinnati. Andre Smith OT. Talented but questionable character. Fits Cinci's needs like a glove.
#7. Oakland. Jeremy Maclin WR. Al Davis loves speed and the Raiders have an urgent need at wideout.
#8. Jacksonville. Michael Crabtree WR. Jacksonville can't pass up the stud WR here.
#9. Greenbay. Tyson Jackson DE. Jackson is considered one of the top defensive ends in the draft, the only reason he doesn't go earlier is that he isn't considered much of a passrusher.
#10. San Franciso. Mark Sanchez QB. Sanchez falls precipitiously thanks to Seattle's lack of interest.
#11. New England from Buffalo (#23+#47). Aaron Curry LB. In an improbable move BB moves up for the top linebacker in the draft to pair with Mayo on the inside.
#12. Denver. Peria Jerry DT. Denver needs DL help badly, and Jerry provides immediate help.
#13. Washington. Robert Ayers DE. One of the top passrushers in the draft at the defensive end position.
#14. New Orleans. Malcom Jenkins CB. The 1st corner off the board is Jenkins.
#15. Houston. Brian Cushing OLB. Cushing fits their defense to a tee, supplement concerns aside.
#16. San Diego. Michael Oher OT. The Chargers need to fix the right side of their OL and Oher goes along way towards repairing it.
#17. New York Jets. Josh Freeman QB. With Favre put to pasture, the Jets need to reload at QB.
#18. Denver from Chicago. Rey Maualuga MLB. Denver overhauls their run defense with their 1st round choices.
#19. Arizona from Tampa Bay (Anquan Boldin trade). Aaron Maybin DE/OLB. An explosive passrusher who may be a boom or bust prospect.
#20. Detroit. Evander Hood DT. The Lions need to stop the bleeding in their run D and they need to start up front.
#21. Philadelphia. Beanie Wells RB. The Eagles take the best player available and get a battering ram to complement Westbrook.
#22. Minnesota. Eben Britton OT. Minnesota needs a strong right tackle and they get a tailor made fit in Britton.
#23. Buffalo from New England. Everette Brown. DE. The Bills traded down and still got a solid passrusher to improve their defense.
#24. Atlanta. Clay Matthews OLB. The Falcons need playmakers on defense and Matthews might end up the best of the USC backers.
#25. Miami. Larry English OLB. After stocking his lines in the previous year, Parcells orders up a passrusher to dial up the defensive pressure.
#26. Baltimore. Vontae Davis CB. The Raven's focus on improving their defense which is their bread and butter.
#27. Indianapolis. Kenny Britt WR. The Colts replace the hole left by Harrison's departure.
#28. Buffalo from Philadelphia. Max Unger OG. The Bills draft the versatile Unger with an eye to plugging him in at right guard.
#29. Cleveland from New York Giants (Braylon Edwards trade). Hakeem Nicks WR. Cleveland unloads Edwards and gets a promising young WR at a very affordable contract.
#30. Tennessee. Alex Mack C. The Titans fill their center need with the top rated one in the draft.
#31. Arizona. Knowshown Moreno RB. The Cardinals draft for best value and get the future replacement for Edgerrin James.
#32. Pittsburgh. William Beatty OT. The defending champions sit tight then take the best available tackle to replace an aging Marvel Smith.

** Three trades projected **
New England to #11 for #23+47.
Boldin to Tampa Bay for #19.
Edwards to the NY Giants for #29.

Pats remaining picks:
Round Two, Pick Two (34) Connor Barwin OLB
Round Two, Pick 26 (58) Jamon Meredith OT
Round Three, Pick 25 (89) Chip Vaughn SS
Round Three, Pick 33 (97) Andy Levitre OG
Round Four, Pick 24 (124) Kevin Barnes CB
Round Five, Pick 34 (170) Traded for 2010 4th
Round Six, Pick 26 (199) Kory Sperry TE
Round Six, Pick 34 (207) Devin Moore RB
Round Seven, Pick 25 (234) Thomas Morstead P

Extremely nice job. Besides the Curry trade and Barwin picks, I love the Meredith, Vaughn, Levitre, Moore and Morstead picks. We would be extremely fortunate to get Meredith at 58, Levitre at 89 and Vaughn at 97. I would be overwhelmed if we came away with that draft.

A couple of thoughts:

- I don't see Sanchez slipping to 10. You may be right, but I don't see it. Too many teams are in reportedly in love with him. Someone would trade up. If he gets that close to 13 I can't see Dan Snyder not pulling the trigger on some kind of trade.
- The Edwards to the Giants trade is reportedly dead for now - the Giants won't give up #29 and Cleveland won't budge. And if the trade did happen, Cleveland is rumored to prefer Kenny Britt to Hakeem Nicks, and might not pull the trigger with Britt gone at 27. Just a rumor.
- #47 seems like a lot to move up to 11, particularly in this discount draft market, but I think that there may be other suitors for Curry. The biggest question I have about Buffalo moving back to 23 is that with Michael Oher still on the board at #11 I would think they would be tempted to take him. I would otherwise see Buffalo going for Beatty at 28 over Unger - tackle is a bigger need for them than guard.
- Im a bit surprised to see Brandon Pettigrew not in the 1st round. Rumors are that a lot of teams like him.

Overall, really nice job - very well thought out andone of the better ones I have seen. I hope you are right.

 

[mayoclinic]

Regarding Pettigrew not in the 1st round, here's Todd McShay's view today from ESPNinsider: "The move the Atlanta Falcons made in trading their second-round pick in 2010 might have been a product of the interest TE Brandon Pettigrew is generating ahead of them in the first round. Pettigrew could very well be off the board when the Falcons come on the clock at No. 24 overall, so by making the trade they assure themselves of getting another weapon for QB Matt Ryan and allow themselves to fill another need in the first round. So where might Pettigrew land? The New York Jets (No. 17) and Philadelphia Eagles (No. 21) both have a need at tight end, and Baltimore Ravens (No. 26) will be in the mix if the Jets make a move for a quarterback (Mark Sanchez) and the Eagles trade their pick for a receiver (Anquan Boldin) or take a running back instead."

Todd McShay: Where will TE Brandon Pettigrew land? - ESPN

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Hey, I really like this draft (a lot!), but I just wanted to point out that we traded our fifth rounder to the Eagles for Greg Lewis. The only fifth we have left is a comp pick, which can't be traded. Just a minor correction.

Otherwise, this is a bang-up job. The best ILB and a guy who's got the potential to be the best OLB from this year's crop, plus two excellent offensive linemen with great positional flexibility (Meredith can play both guard and tackle), a CB prospect with major potential, a great third down back/slot receiver/returner, and a punter who has a legitimate shot at unseating Hanson for the starting job. We're talking starters/rotational guys in just about every round. Impressive!

Again, very well done. *applauds*

 

[VJCPatriot]

Regarding Pettigrew not in the 1st round, here's Todd McShay's view today from ESPNinsider: "The move the Atlanta Falcons made in trading their second-round pick in 2010 might have been a product of the interest TE Brandon Pettigrew is generating ahead of them in the first round. Pettigrew could very well be off the board when the Falcons come on the clock at No. 24 overall, so by making the trade they assure themselves of getting another weapon for QB Matt Ryan and allow themselves to fill another need in the first round. So where might Pettigrew land? The New York Jets (No. 17) and Philadelphia Eagles (No. 21) both have a need at tight end, and Baltimore Ravens (No. 26) will be in the mix if the Jets make a move for a quarterback (Mark Sanchez) and the Eagles trade their pick for a receiver (Anquan Boldin) or take a running back instead."

Todd McShay: Where will TE Brandon Pettigrew land? - ESPN

Right I had Pettigrew's main landing spots either Philly or Atlanta. However Philly couldn't pass up the value of Wells at that spot and Atlanta just traded for Gonzalez. The Jets would be stupid to take a tight end over a QB so I gave them the QB. The real draft might differ. Pettigrew would still make an excellent value at the top of 2nd to mid second. He just doesn't have the measurables that leap out despite being a well rounded TE.

 

[Feep50]

I would jump for joy if we could pull off a draft like this! Wow!

Nice effort VJC........... BTW: what time does the draft start? 3:00PM EST?

 

[mayoclinic]

Hey, I really like this draft (a lot!), but I just wanted to point out that we traded our fifth rounder to the Eagles for Greg Lewis. The only fifth we have left is a comp pick, which can't be traded. Just a minor correction.

Otherwise, this is a bang-up job. The best ILB and a guy who's got the potential to be the best OLB from this year's crop, plus two excellent offensive linemen with great positional flexibility (Meredith can play both guard and tackle), a CB prospect with major potential, a great third down back/slot receiver/returner, and a punter who has a legitimate shot at unseating Hanson for the starting job. We're talking starters/rotational guys in just about every round. Impressive!

Again, very well done. *applauds*

Plus you left out Chip Vaughn at safety, who would be terrific value in the 3rd round.

My biggest "gripe" with this draft is too many things are going right for the Pats. It seems a bit too good to be true - Curry falling to 11, Barwin lasting to 34, Meredith to 58, Levitre to 89, and Vaughn to 97. It seems a bit like people are working hard to give us a great draft. Any one of those things could happen. All of them happening is like winning the lottery. But I would take it in a heartbeat.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I had the same thought, Mayo. It really does feel too much like a perfect storm, though it's certainly not out of the question.

Also: I don't really know much about Chip Vaughn. The other guys are all on my radar, and I've watched film and read up on them, but somehow I don't know Vaughn too terribly well. I'll look into him now, though. Thanks for the pointer.

If we took a tight end late, doesn't it seem more likely that we'd take Bear Pascoe, given the Pat Hill connection? Seems like basically a smaller version of Mankins in so many ways. He's a beast in the blocking game, though not a great pass-catching target. Nonetheless, he has over 110 career receptions and has averaged over 10 yards a catch, so he's not useless over the middle either.

One last thought. No developmental QB? O'Connell will be the back-up, and Gutz has earned a shot in training camp, but I still think it's good business to go and get another guy we can groom for trade bait or the back-up position down the road. If draft picks were money, it would make good fiscal sense.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Hey, I really like this draft (a lot!), but I just wanted to point out that we traded our fifth rounder to the Eagles for Greg Lewis. The only fifth we have left is a comp pick, which can't be traded. Just a minor correction.

Otherwise, this is a bang-up job. The best ILB and a guy who's got the potential to be the best OLB from this year's crop, plus two excellent offensive linemen with great positional flexibility (Meredith can play both guard and tackle), a CB prospect with major potential, a great third down back/slot receiver/returner, and a punter who has a legitimate shot at unseating Hanson for the starting job. We're talking starters/rotational guys in just about every round. Impressive!

Again, very well done. *applauds*

Thanks I forgot about the 5th being a comp pick. Obviously this is a best case scenario for the Patriots. The actual draft will have its own flow that might throw my well-laid plans awry! But we can always dream. The actual draft is less than 48 hours away!

 

[TriplecHamp]

Do work VCJ!!! Good job all around.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

No worries, these things slip out of mind pretty easily. It's an exciting time!

And now I blame you for getting me all excited and fan-boyish about the possibility of an absolutely perfect draft like this one. Just look what you've done. You're setting me up for major disappointment on Saturday! *shakes fist*

 

[VJCPatriot]

I considered Pascoe, but after I read up on Sperry he seemed like a Garrett Mills type, and BB drafted Mills in the 4th round to play that TE/H-back role. Unfortunately he got vulched by the Vikings on the way down to the practice squad. Sperry is a converted high school QB with potential to fit into the Pats short passing game.

TE, Kory Sperry, ColoradoState - Mile High Report

 

[VJCPatriot]

UPDATE: Upon hearing the rumors of the Pats trade with Jacksonville, it appears that they will be picking at #8. I feel their target will be either Aaron Curry or Tyson Jackson but only if they are still around. Looks like I had the move up right, they're just going up a little higher than I thought they could.

 

[DaBruinz]

I love this draft with a couple of changes:

Substitute Zach Miller - TE form Nebraska-Omaha for Kory Sperry

Substitute - Gano for Morestead
Substitute - Mike Reilly for Moore and sign Moore as a UDFA.

Just out of curiosity, Where do you see Walker fitting in for the Patriots??? I don't see him as being a DE because he's not got any mobility and I don't see him as a back-up NT cause he's too light...

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I love this draft with a couple of changes:

Substitute Zach Miller - TE form Nebraska-Omaha for Kory Sperry

Substitute - Gano for Morestead
Substitute - Mike Reilly for Moore and sign Moore as a UDFA.

Just out of curiosity, Where do you see Walker fitting in for the Patriots??? I don't see him as being a DE because he's not got any mobility and I don't see him as a back-up NT cause he's too light...

I like Miller at TE as well. Good Call.

 

[DaBruinz]

I like Miller at TE as well. Good Call.

I can't take full credit for Miller. I had forgotten about him and only Heatster's draft reminded me about him.

 

[VJCPatriot]

VJCPatriots 1st round mock draft 4/23/09

Bingo pick = Correct player to correct team at exact spot he was taken in the actual draft.

VJC's Bingo Picks 5

#1 Matthew Stafford to Detroit
#2 Jason Smith to St. Louis
#6 Andre Smith to Cincinnati
#14 Malcolm Jenkins to Saints
#15 Brian Cushing to Texans

VJC's Number of 1st rounders correctly named

26/32

Gosselin's final NFL Mock Draft 4/25/2009 (1st round compared)

Gosselin's Bingo Picks 9

#1 Matthew Stafford to Detroit
#2 Jason Smith to St. Louis
#3 Tyson Jackson to KC
#4 Aaron Curry to Seattle
#6 Andre Smith to Cincinnati
#8 Eugene Monroe to Jacksonville
#11 Aaron Maybin to Buffalo
#14 Vontae Davis to New Orleans
#20 Brandon Pettigrew to Detroit

Gosselin's Number of 1st rounders correctly named
28/32

Rick Gosselin's final NFL mock draft | Sports News | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News

So how did your mock measure up to Gosselin's? My last mock was done 2 days earlier than him so I wasn't acting on as much current information and of course he actually has league sources to lean on. In particular if I hadn't tried to engineer a Curry trade I think I might have gotten a couple of more bingos. Not bad compared to a guy who gets PAID to do this stuff.