Content Post 24 QB Primer Thread

[JohnJH]

Would like to use this thread to specifically talk QB's. What they bring to table, how they would fit here. What type of things would need to happen to help them achieve success/their full potential.

Every scouting report is a little different bc every prospect is a different. Playing with different players, against different players, with different coaches. So theres not really a uniform way for me. I just try to focus on what I see in high leverage situations and work from there to be honest.

Jonathan James McCarthy
21 yo / 1 - 20 - 03 from La Grange, IL
Mom was a figure skater which probably had something to do with him playing hockey as well. Supposedly he was a very good young prospect. Very tight with his family and faith. 5* recruit. Has dated his gf, Katya Kuropas, since hs. I believe they are still engaged.

High School and College records
26 - 3 Nazareth
8 - 0 IMG AC (big jump in development)
27 - 1 UM
61/3



One of the few clear leaders on that team. If he was eligible he would have been team captain from almost day one. Loves the game, competition. Isn't afraid of hard work, seems comes natural. Not as a chore.
If you're drafting a QB this high, any round really, with the intention of "franchise guy." You want them to be the hardest worker in the room.

McCarthy took a big step in terms of his progressions, timing, anticipation and field vision this past year/off-season. Occasional plays where he'll look like a 20 yo (pocket presence or accountability can be a little messy) but he's been nothing but steady, more than solid and poised in some of the biggest games/situations in his young career. IQ has to improve but it's solid in context. Again mostly deciphering coverage and variations it'll spill into post/snap. He's displayed the smarts, subtleties and nuances you want to see at this stage but does have a long way to go in certain areas.

There's a decent difference in his dropbacks however. Short, intermediate vs deep stuff. He was compact, decisive with clean mechanics with stuff about 30 yards in (mesh, the deep in off Yankee, dagger, sail, slants. Things came out very quickly. On time with accuracy anticipation and velocity. We've see so many of the throws and take a look at a few below. The deep shots arent quite as clean in terms of marrying those drop backs with his mechanics. Occasionally you'll see his upper half/release become inconsistent but his footwork is also lacking at times on deep stuff. He does a very good job keeping his feet firing but base can be little inconsistent when moved off his spot and firing deep or quick. Or climbing up the pocket. The experience/attempts aren't there so it's not a huge surprise.



*First play is something UM ran a lot. Motion to flat with a (#1)sail route. Motion/flat to pull a defender but it doesn't quite work to full effect so McCarthy uses a pump fake to draw a defender down. Far hash throw with plenty of gas to where only his man can really make a play. You see this a lot throughout his film. Quick little fakes to move defenders.
Second play same as the first. Motion with sail. Far hash to sideline with plenty of gas and anticipation. JJM likely knows where this going and is committed but he throws this while his guy isn't out of break/even looking yet. Again plenty of gas.
Third play might look routine enough but it's quite impressive imo. Disguised pressure looks like delayed creeper blitz from the second level. Lineman dropping in coverage. Looks off 18 moves a LB to hit 1.
Fourth play is big boy stuff too imo. You know pressure is coming even though you're well prepared to counter it. Still rush is in his face. Impressive ability to manipulate this pocket by shuffling. Eyes down field whole time, running a dagger concept.
Fifth play is yankee concept. Just throws a rope to his man. Balls out extremely quick with no hesitation or hitch.
Last play is something you need in today's game. Ability to move, extend or create and make a play. His head is up you can see his eyes move from target to target.*

One of, if not the best anticipatory MOF passer in the class along with Maye (big names) Passes with plus anticipation and confidence there. Manipulates mof defenders to buy some room or time. Whether he's on the move outside the pocket, in the pocket, someone in his face. He's very comfortable with these routes/concepts. Lets it rip whether its an underneath crosser off mesh variations, slants, seam or others
like we saw above. He's thrown some beauties between, over defenders.Very aggressive here, attacks and does have the ability to layer a ball between defenders to where only his guy can get it. Doesnt have a ton of picthes but hes more than a one speed passer (Baker, Murray) Excellent in PA, RPO/selling something to the defense.

Occasionally will stare down his first read or target. Usually the ball is coming out hot with great placement but it's something he has to clean up. Especially against guys that have been doing this a lot longer than him.

Arm isn't going to be confused with Mahomes or Allen but he generates easy gas off quick releases from various angles and release slots. Above average velocity and touch. Strength could improve some but well pass the threshold. Placement and accuracy need to improve as well on the deep stuff. Displayed some top tier qualities (accuracy, ability to layer passes) under real pressure or on the move. Both physical (250-300+ athletes chasing him) and mental (big games multiple OSU, UG etc) Has completed 70% 1700 + yards 7 TD/3 INT when blitzed over the last two years.


Very good "on the move" very agile, mobile and athletic. 6'3 205 plenty of room for his big boy weight that'll be arriving in the next few years. He's able to scramble and shake off arm tackles or weak attempts. He'll run sub 4.6 and with some added muscle and the right calls. Hell be a threat on a few designed runs a game. Nothing major but i wouldn't hesitate to call 2-3 specific ones for him. His pocket presence is a bright spot imo. Not sure what others see there but he's very heady, eyes are always down field. Footwork can definitely improve but hes usually moving, shuffling, trying to create. I've seen him ID, alert pressure. He does try to do too much at times back there but there's not many negatives in this area. His comp% when scrambling is quite impressive compared to the rest of the class. JMM 71.4 Nix 58.6 Daniels 46.7 Williams 41.8 Maye 36.8 Penix 23.3 That's quite that gap.



The volume isn't there but there's no doubting his ability to step up in big games against big schools. The game, moment, never looked "too big" he's the definition of a "gamer." Went toe to toe and outplayed a lot of very good QB's like CJ Stroud. Big games and moments aren't really a thing anymore when you've lost 3 times in like 6-7 years.

Deciphering 3rd level coverage rotations, peelbacks and at times second level disguise can give him trouble. So much of this is experience, real time reps.

Don't see many "hospital" balls knows how to lead and where to steer his targets. Whether it's simply leading away from coverage or throwing low to avoid a head shot. Kind of speaks to and falls in the anticipation department but worth noting after the last few years.



Good possibility he won't have a top 50 target drafted this year despite Wilson being a player. Easily the worst group of targets among the big names ...
LSU - Nabers, Thomas, Lacy, Aiyuk (briefly at ASU)
WASH - Odunze, Polk, McMillan
USC - Addison, Washington, Marvin Mims
UNC - Walker, Green, Downs

*Early Declare QBs who started multiple years ranked by Career EPA per play*

1. Tua Tagovailoa - 0.463
2. CJ Stroud - 0.373
3. Justin Fields - 0.298
4. CALEB WILLIAMS - 0.240
5. Patrick Mahomes - 0.223
6. JJ MCCARTHY - 0.223
7. DRAKE MAYE - 0.159
8. Lamar Jackson - 0.079


From PFF 5th Wins above replacement
90 + % under pressure 90 + % 3rd & 4th down
Outside the pocket 76% Positively grade throws 86%


How was he on "money downs" , "high leverage", "pressure" plays. 3rd & long, 3rd & 4th, pressure, top defenses ...

vs 7 top 20 defenses (SP +)
70% 7 TD 1 INT 1RUSH TD

vs 10 top 50 defenses
70% 8.2 YA 1733 yards 12 TD 1 INT 3 RUSH TD

From Fanduel/Jim Sannes
Avg Opp. Def Rank PA ATT V Top 50 D
JJ McCarthy 38.8 63.3%
Jayden Daniels 46.7 56.3%
Michael Penix 57.3 55.9%
Drake Maye. 61.0 44.7%
Caleb Williams 64.6 53.4%
Bo Nix 79.2 41.1%

"That average defensive ranking will be the seventh-toughest for any FBS quarterback drafted since 2010 once McCarthy gets the call."

On 3rd and 6+
% of att AY/A Sack Rate
JJ McCarthy 17.8% 13.1 9.7%
Bo Nix. 11.5% 11.9 1.8%
Jayden Daniels 10.7% 10.7 12.5%
Drake Maye 14.1% 8.8 11.8%
Caleb Williams 13.1% 8.2 15.0%
Michael Penix. 12.1% 6.4 6.2%

That 13.1 AY/A easily led this class and is the third-best mark for any quarterback prospect since 2010, trailing just Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray. McCarthy's (relatively) lower AY/A is also excusable given 17.8% of his pass attempts came in these obvious passing situations."

Scramble rate on non-pressured dropbacks (college career)

Jayden Daniels: 9.4%
Justin Fields: 8.0%
Drake Maye: 7.0%
Will Levis: 4.4%
Bryce Young: 4.0%
Brock Purdy: 3.8%
Bo Nix: 3.5%
JJ McCarthy: 3.0%
Caleb Williams: 3.0%
CJ Stroud: 2.1%

ADot compared to last year's class and this one
Young: 10.0
CJ Stroud: 10.7
Anthony Richardson: 11.5
Will Levis: 8.6
Hendon Hooker 11.7

Caleb Williams: 9.2
Drake Maye: 11.0
Jayden Daniels: 10.5
JJ McCarthy: 9.8
Michael Penix: 10.7


Great doc for QB's

2024 Draft QBs

Broad Data QB ,Current Age (January),Career Starts,Record,PFF OFF,PFF Pass,PFF Run,NFL PR,QBR Caleb Williams,22.1,33,23-10,90.3,84.6,82.6,117.4,82.3 Drake Maye,21.4,26,17-9,90.6,89.1,73.8,100.2,78.8 Jayden Daniels,23.1,55,37-18,94.7,92,92.4,143.7,95.7 J.J. McCarthy,21,28,27-1,90.6,87.9,78,116.6,...

docs.google.com

View attachment 56583
Well ahead the pack here

View attachment 56581
This one is interesting bc when you filter this info down to "dropback passes only" McCarthy comes out ahead 30.1% on target percentage followed by Michael Penix Jr (29.3%) and Caleb Williams (28.9%). Daniels’ percentage is only 23.4% and Nix’s is even lower (19.4%).

(first one below is 5 + yards to go)
View attachment 56584


I think he would be a great fit here. Just by going off initial opinions of AVP and watching some of his offenses. I think McCarthy is someone who he could really utilize to get the most out of his system.
A) AVP loved generating explosive plays from the run game.
B)Big-time PA, Browns were top 7 I believe in PA %.
C)Browns used a lot of bootlegs to play off their OZ rush attack. You can really hurt teams on the backside here.
D)save critical passes, traditional drop backs for 3rd down. Max protect if need be.
E)A lot of Dagger of PA, Mesh, hi/lows (motion to flat / sail)
F)someone who can create when things breakdown

I could go on but the similarities are there all over the place. In today's game you need to be able to throw on the run, handle and adapt to pressure, come through on 3rd down, create when pressure is highest.

Per PFF Big Time Throws Off PA
Michael Penix Jr (#2 in football) - 18
Drake Maye - 7
J.J. McCarthy - 7
Caleb Williams - 6
Jayden Daniels - 5
Bo Nix - 5
Spencer Rattler - 3

Simply put McCarthy is a killer in so many areas that AVP values. Off-script, 3rd down, bootlegs, PA. The only thing that doesn't quite come together is the fact that AVP really needs a big arm QB to attack vertically selectively. McCarthy's low volume, inconsistencies reading the 3rd level could lead to some hesitancy but he checks every other box on & off the field. Teams that dig into analytics will love McCarthy.

Nicely done.

 

[patfanken]

No. Its pretty much Maye/MHJ or trade back into the top ten.

This is one of those things you almost need to be in the building for though. I still wouldn't do it at 3 but it would help to know. "Hey we're very aggressive in terms of pursuing a WR1, players that'll bring out said QBs strength, some tackle help." The value just doesn't come close imo but I'm being honest when I say I won't be shocked to see him go top 10-12. Maye and Williams are locks in the top 2-3 imo and teams will get greedy. Teams are already sweating thinking about it. And will love JJ when they talk with him.

3 is too rich for McCarthy and unless we sign Aiyuk or a top tier WR in FA I don't think you do him justice. You need the table set imo if you're starting him early on. (Not my analogy) He's a baker that can come up with a nice dish with the right ingredients. Not a chef that can whip up something from scratch. At least not yet. So you need the table set for him.

I get taking your guy when you have the chance but i believe the best course here would be to trade back in the top 10. Select Nabers (specifically for JJM), Alt or Fashanu Use the cap from the trade and a future 2025 1st to get McCarthy outside the top ten. Draft best available WR/OL with 34. Not ideal, a little backwards but plenty of teams have got the WR before the QB.

IF you came away with one of the 3 above (Nabers Alt Fashanu), JJM and say Franklin, Ladd, Worthy, Amegadjie, Guyton, Fautanu or Morgan. That would be something you could sell the fans.

It won't be pretty at first but this offense is built off explosive yac plays, the running game, select vertical shots with McCarthy's athleticism, TD/INT ratio, clutch on money downs, ability to run & scramble and leadership in the middle of all this .... I think some fans would get behind or at least give it a fair shot with all the money we have. Take it slow. Again we wont be "great" As long as we look like we're actually good and a threat in key areas. Have young guys with energy and passion. Most fans would be ok with a losing season as long as the future looks bright.

Ill have a decent 2nd round grade on him fwiw.

You make a great case for trading down to the 8-12 spot and pick up some valuable draft capital, and still get your QB of the future. I am very conflicted about this.

I read recently someone's thought that between now and the draft virtually EVERY QB available will have his draft expectations RAISED. Just like we are seeing with McCarthy. At the end of the season, he was viewed as a 2nd round, high 3rd round pick. Now without throwing another pass in competition he has shot up to mid first round status.

They ALL look so promising now, yet the failure rate among QB's even at the highest levels is scarily high. I'm hoping May will still be there at 3. Talent wise I think Daniels might even be better, but those damned "skinny legs" scare me. In a sense he kind of reminds me of RG3, who was everyone's cup of tea....until he wasn't.

At any rate thanks for all the detailed info. I'm once again smarter for having read your stuff. Unfortunately it didn't make me feel more decisive. What an interesting draft this is going to be.

 

[stcjones]

No. Its pretty much Maye/MHJ or trade back into the top ten.

This is one of those things you almost need to be in the building for though. I still wouldn't do it at 3 but it would help to know. "Hey we're very aggressive in terms of pursuing a WR1, players that'll bring out said QBs strength, some tackle help." The value just doesn't come close imo but I'm being honest when I say I won't be shocked to see him go top 10-12. Maye and Williams are locks in the top 2-3 imo and teams will get greedy. Teams are already sweating thinking about it. And will love JJ when they talk with him.

3 is too rich for McCarthy and unless we sign Aiyuk or a top tier WR in FA I don't think you do him justice. You need the table set imo if you're starting him early on. (Not my analogy) He's a baker that can come up with a nice dish with the right ingredients. Not a chef that can whip up something from scratch. At least not yet. So you need the table set for him.

I get taking your guy when you have the chance but i believe the best course here would be to trade back in the top 10. Select Nabers (specifically for JJM), Alt or Fashanu Use the cap from the trade and a future 2025 1st to get McCarthy outside the top ten. Draft best available WR/OL with 34. Not ideal, a little backwards but plenty of teams have got the WR before the QB.

IF you came away with one of the 3 above (Nabers Alt Fashanu), JJM and say Franklin, Ladd, Worthy, Amegadjie, Guyton, Fautanu or Morgan. That would be something you could sell the fans.

It won't be pretty at first but this offense is built off explosive yac plays, the running game, select vertical shots with McCarthy's athleticism, TD/INT ratio, clutch on money downs, ability to run & scramble and leadership in the middle of all this .... I think some fans would get behind or at least give it a fair shot with all the money we have. Take it slow. Again we wont be "great" As long as we look like we're actually good and a threat in key areas. Have young guys with energy and passion. Most fans would be ok with a losing season as long as the future looks bright.

Ill have a decent 2nd round grade on him fwiw.

Most of the mock drafts, keep flip-flopping back-and-forth for us to either take Drake Maye or Daniels. I would prefer Maye, but if either of them are there, at number three, I would imagine you have to pull the trigger there… The wildcard would be Harrison Junior.

 

[Boomer B]

The more I read on Daniel’s the less I want us to draft him. Slight frame without elite velocity and accuracy. To me it seems Daniel’s has the biggest chance to be a bust out of the top players in the draft.

 

[The Gr8est]

My sense is that they want a QB but they have also put the word out that they're willing and looking to trade down, so it's possible that they also like McCarthy and know 3 is a reach. That said, waiting too long can be a gamble too. If you have convictions, find a way to get up to around 10 and grab him even if you have to use a future 1st. I could see a trade down with Atlanta like I said to add a 2nd and a future 1st, then package pick 34, a 3rd rounder and Atlanta's 2025 1st to move up to 9 with Chicago who loves to collect future 1sts from bad/middling teams and already got Caleb. Then NE would have picks 8 and 9 consecutively and could secure their QB and WR/LT without really losing much capital vs. what they started the draft out with.

Other teams know the Pats need a QB, and if they make a small trade down, there could be a team anticipating the Pats want McCarthy and trade up in front of them.

It is certainly a risk.

 

[JohnJH]

The more I read on Daniel’s the less I want us to draft him. Slight frame without elite velocity and accuracy. To me it seems Daniel’s has the biggest chance to be a bust out of the top players in the draft.

Another reason why I'd roll the dice with Maye, or in a trade back, McCarthy. Both are young enough to sit for a year or two while the rest of the talent on offense is built up.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Would like to use this thread to specifically talk QB's. What they bring to table, how they would fit here. What type of things would need to happen to help them achieve success/their full potential.

Every scouting report is a little different bc every prospect is a different. Playing with different players, against different players, with different coaches. So theres not really a uniform way for me. I just try to focus on what I see in high leverage situations and work from there to be honest.

Jonathan James McCarthy
21 yo / 1 - 20 - 03 from La Grange, IL
Mom was a figure skater which probably had something to do with him playing hockey as well. Supposedly he was a very good young prospect. Very tight with his family and faith. 5* recruit. Has dated his gf, Katya Kuropas, since hs. I believe they are still engaged.

High School and College records
26 - 3 Nazareth
8 - 0 IMG AC (big jump in development)
27 - 1 UM
61/3



One of the few clear leaders on that team. If he was eligible he would have been team captain from almost day one. Loves the game, competition. Isn't afraid of hard work, seems comes natural. Not as a chore.
If you're drafting a QB this high, any round really, with the intention of "franchise guy." You want them to be the hardest worker in the room.

McCarthy took a big step in terms of his progressions, timing, anticipation and field vision this past year/off-season. Occasional plays where he'll look like a 20 yo (pocket presence or accountability can be a little messy) but he's been nothing but steady, more than solid and poised in some of the biggest games/situations in his young career. IQ has to improve but it's solid in context. Again mostly deciphering coverage and variations it'll spill into post/snap. He's displayed the smarts, subtleties and nuances you want to see at this stage but does have a long way to go in certain areas.

There's a decent difference in his dropbacks however. Short, intermediate vs deep stuff. He was compact, decisive with clean mechanics with stuff about 30 yards in (mesh, the deep in off Yankee, dagger, sail, slants. Things came out very quickly. On time with accuracy anticipation and velocity. We've see so many of the throws and take a look at a few below. The deep shots arent quite as clean in terms of marrying those drop backs with his mechanics. Occasionally you'll see his upper half/release become inconsistent but his footwork is also lacking at times on deep stuff. He does a very good job keeping his feet firing but base can be little inconsistent when moved off his spot and firing deep or quick. Or climbing up the pocket. The experience/attempts aren't there so it's not a huge surprise.



*First play is something UM ran a lot. Motion to flat with a (#1)sail route. Motion/flat to pull a defender but it doesn't quite work to full effect so McCarthy uses a pump fake to draw a defender down. Far hash throw with plenty of gas to where only his man can really make a play. You see this a lot throughout his film. Quick little fakes to move defenders.
Second play same as the first. Motion with sail. Far hash to sideline with plenty of gas and anticipation. JJM likely knows where this going and is committed but he throws this while his guy isn't out of break/even looking yet. Again plenty of gas.
Third play might look routine enough but it's quite impressive imo. Disguised pressure looks like delayed creeper blitz from the second level. Lineman dropping in coverage. Looks off 18 moves a LB to hit 1.
Fourth play is big boy stuff too imo. You know pressure is coming even though you're well prepared to counter it. Still rush is in his face. Impressive ability to manipulate this pocket by shuffling. Eyes down field whole time, running a dagger concept.
Fifth play is yankee concept. Just throws a rope to his man. Balls out extremely quick with no hesitation or hitch.
Last play is something you need in today's game. Ability to move, extend or create and make a play. His head is up you can see his eyes move from target to target.*

One of, if not the best anticipatory MOF passer in the class along with Maye (big names) Passes with plus anticipation and confidence there. Manipulates mof defenders to buy some room or time. Whether he's on the move outside the pocket, in the pocket, someone in his face. He's very comfortable with these routes/concepts. Lets it rip whether its an underneath crosser off mesh variations, slants, seam or others
like we saw above. He's thrown some beauties between, over defenders.Very aggressive here, attacks and does have the ability to layer a ball between defenders to where only his guy can get it. Doesnt have a ton of picthes but hes more than a one speed passer (Baker, Murray) Excellent in PA, RPO/selling something to the defense.

Occasionally will stare down his first read or target. Usually the ball is coming out hot with great placement but it's something he has to clean up. Especially against guys that have been doing this a lot longer than him.

Arm isn't going to be confused with Mahomes or Allen but he generates easy gas off quick releases from various angles and release slots. Above average velocity and touch. Strength could improve some but well pass the threshold. Placement and accuracy need to improve as well on the deep stuff. Displayed some top tier qualities (accuracy, ability to layer passes) under real pressure or on the move. Both physical (250-300+ athletes chasing him) and mental (big games multiple OSU, UG etc) Has completed 70% 1700 + yards 7 TD/3 INT when blitzed over the last two years.


Very good "on the move" very agile, mobile and athletic. 6'3 205 plenty of room for his big boy weight that'll be arriving in the next few years. He's able to scramble and shake off arm tackles or weak attempts. He'll run sub 4.6 and with some added muscle and the right calls. Hell be a threat on a few designed runs a game. Nothing major but i wouldn't hesitate to call 2-3 specific ones for him. His pocket presence is a bright spot imo. Not sure what others see there but he's very heady, eyes are always down field. Footwork can definitely improve but hes usually moving, shuffling, trying to create. I've seen him ID, alert pressure. He does try to do too much at times back there but there's not many negatives in this area. His comp% when scrambling is quite impressive compared to the rest of the class. JMM 71.4 Nix 58.6 Daniels 46.7 Williams 41.8 Maye 36.8 Penix 23.3 That's quite that gap.



The volume isn't there but there's no doubting his ability to step up in big games against big schools. The game, moment, never looked "too big" he's the definition of a "gamer." Went toe to toe and outplayed a lot of very good QB's like CJ Stroud. Big games and moments aren't really a thing anymore when you've lost 3 times in like 6-7 years.

Deciphering 3rd level coverage rotations, peelbacks and at times second level disguise can give him trouble. So much of this is experience, real time reps.

Don't see many "hospital" balls knows how to lead and where to steer his targets. Whether it's simply leading away from coverage or throwing low to avoid a head shot. Kind of speaks to and falls in the anticipation department but worth noting after the last few years.



Good possibility he won't have a top 50 target drafted this year despite Wilson being a player. Easily the worst group of targets among the big names ...
LSU - Nabers, Thomas, Lacy, Aiyuk (briefly at ASU)
WASH - Odunze, Polk, McMillan
USC - Addison, Washington, Marvin Mims
UNC - Walker, Green, Downs

*Early Declare QBs who started multiple years ranked by Career EPA per play*

1. Tua Tagovailoa - 0.463
2. CJ Stroud - 0.373
3. Justin Fields - 0.298
4. CALEB WILLIAMS - 0.240
5. Patrick Mahomes - 0.223
6. JJ MCCARTHY - 0.223
7. DRAKE MAYE - 0.159
8. Lamar Jackson - 0.079


From PFF 5th Wins above replacement
90 + % under pressure 90 + % 3rd & 4th down
Outside the pocket 76% Positively grade throws 86%


How was he on "money downs" , "high leverage", "pressure" plays. 3rd & long, 3rd & 4th, pressure, top defenses ...

vs 7 top 20 defenses (SP +)
70% 7 TD 1 INT 1RUSH TD

vs 10 top 50 defenses
70% 8.2 YA 1733 yards 12 TD 1 INT 3 RUSH TD

From Fanduel/Jim Sannes
Avg Opp. Def Rank PA ATT V Top 50 D
JJ McCarthy 38.8 63.3%
Jayden Daniels 46.7 56.3%
Michael Penix 57.3 55.9%
Drake Maye. 61.0 44.7%
Caleb Williams 64.6 53.4%
Bo Nix 79.2 41.1%

"That average defensive ranking will be the seventh-toughest for any FBS quarterback drafted since 2010 once McCarthy gets the call."

On 3rd and 6+
% of att AY/A Sack Rate
JJ McCarthy 17.8% 13.1 9.7%
Bo Nix. 11.5% 11.9 1.8%
Jayden Daniels 10.7% 10.7 12.5%
Drake Maye 14.1% 8.8 11.8%
Caleb Williams 13.1% 8.2 15.0%
Michael Penix. 12.1% 6.4 6.2%

That 13.1 AY/A easily led this class and is the third-best mark for any quarterback prospect since 2010, trailing just Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray. McCarthy's (relatively) lower AY/A is also excusable given 17.8% of his pass attempts came in these obvious passing situations."

Scramble rate on non-pressured dropbacks (college career)

Jayden Daniels: 9.4%
Justin Fields: 8.0%
Drake Maye: 7.0%
Will Levis: 4.4%
Bryce Young: 4.0%
Brock Purdy: 3.8%
Bo Nix: 3.5%
JJ McCarthy: 3.0%
Caleb Williams: 3.0%
CJ Stroud: 2.1%

ADot compared to last year's class and this one
Young: 10.0
CJ Stroud: 10.7
Anthony Richardson: 11.5
Will Levis: 8.6
Hendon Hooker 11.7

Caleb Williams: 9.2
Drake Maye: 11.0
Jayden Daniels: 10.5
JJ McCarthy: 9.8
Michael Penix: 10.7


Great doc for QB's

2024 Draft QBs

Broad Data QB ,Current Age (January),Career Starts,Record,PFF OFF,PFF Pass,PFF Run,NFL PR,QBR Caleb Williams,22.1,33,23-10,90.3,84.6,82.6,117.4,82.3 Drake Maye,21.4,26,17-9,90.6,89.1,73.8,100.2,78.8 Jayden Daniels,23.1,55,37-18,94.7,92,92.4,143.7,95.7 J.J. McCarthy,21,28,27-1,90.6,87.9,78,116.6,...

docs.google.com

View attachment 56583
Well ahead the pack here

View attachment 56581
This one is interesting bc when you filter this info down to "dropback passes only" McCarthy comes out ahead 30.1% on target percentage followed by Michael Penix Jr (29.3%) and Caleb Williams (28.9%). Daniels’ percentage is only 23.4% and Nix’s is even lower (19.4%).

(first one below is 5 + yards to go)
View attachment 56584


I think he would be a great fit here. Just by going off initial opinions of AVP and watching some of his offenses. I think McCarthy is someone who he could really utilize to get the most out of his system.
A) AVP loved generating explosive plays from the run game.
B)Big-time PA, Browns were top 7 I believe in PA %.
C)Browns used a lot of bootlegs to play off their OZ rush attack. You can really hurt teams on the backside here.
D)save critical passes, traditional drop backs for 3rd down. Max protect if need be.
E)A lot of Dagger of PA, Mesh, hi/lows (motion to flat / sail)
F)someone who can create when things breakdown

I could go on but the similarities are there all over the place. In today's game you need to be able to throw on the run, handle and adapt to pressure, come through on 3rd down, create when pressure is highest.

Per PFF Big Time Throws Off PA
Michael Penix Jr (#2 in football) - 18
Drake Maye - 7
J.J. McCarthy - 7
Caleb Williams - 6
Jayden Daniels - 5
Bo Nix - 5
Spencer Rattler - 3

Simply put McCarthy is a killer in so many areas that AVP values. Off-script, 3rd down, bootlegs, PA. The only thing that doesn't quite come together is the fact that AVP really needs a big arm QB to attack vertically selectively. McCarthy's low volume, inconsistencies reading the 3rd level could lead to some hesitancy but he checks every other box on & off the field. Teams that dig into analytics will love McCarthy.

These didn't show up but I posted the link to Miller's doc in that post I believe. None of the other "big names" hit 40% very impressive considering age.

This one is interesting bc when you filter this info down to "dropback passes only" McCarthy comes out ahead 30.1% on target percentage followed by Michael Penix Jr (29.3%) and Caleb Williams (28.9%). Daniels’ percentage is only 23.4% and Nix’s is even lower (19.4%).

Against pressure

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

Other teams know the Pats need a QB, and if they make a small trade down, there could be a team anticipating the Pats want McCarthy and trade up in front of them.

It is certainly a risk.

You can not trade down too much
Not considering any trade ups but just if you look at the top 8 teams there could be 4 teams wanting a qb with pats commanders giants and falcons. So I would not want trade down further than spot 7-8.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

You can not trade down too much
Not considering any trade ups but just if you look at the top 8 teams there could be 4 teams wanting a qb with pats commanders giants and falcons. So I would not want trade down further than spot 7-8.

I think the Bears will go QB at #1.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

I think the Bears will go QB at #1.

Yeah true forgot them

 

[Uptown]

Caleb is just a higher-level problem solver for many different looks defenses can present. Think of a great golfer who can get out of trouble(trees/long grass/near water/bunker) and is good around the green (with chips, flop shots, bump n runs, etc). Elite with pocket awareness and buying time and elite with accuracy both in the pocket and off-script. Caleb possesses flexibility with his body/arm, which allows him to throw from weird positions on the run and arm angles. It's impressive where he can place the football while scrambling and under pressure. I wish he played more in structure at times, but '23 USC was a mess too. Quick processor and quick release. Smart with how/when he runs and really understands defensive angles/speed to not take hits, but also when to cut back for more yardage. Being so good at buying time and scrambling does lead to some bad sacks and fumbles. But I feel like if you're going to benefit from when it does work you have to live with when it doesn't too. Very accurate near the sidelines as well. Reminds me of an Aaron Rodgers lite.

Maye is a big game hunter in looking for deep shots and winning down the field with his accuracy. He takes more deep shots than these other 3 QBs because he has so much success doing it(think of a great 3 pt shooter, even when it's not working you believe the next one will go in). He doesn't have the level of balance/pocket presence of Caleb and can make some mistakes trying to force plays, especially when he gets pressured. Maye will also leave clean pockets or move within the pocket into pressure at times. But Maye makes some incredibly difficult completions as he's being hit or falling to the ground. He throws WRs open and can fit the ball into tight windows. Athletic and willing runner, who has a strong arm. Comes from a very athletic family. Reminds me of Allen/Herbert lite to Jay Cutler.

McCarthy impressed me more on tape than I imagined. He always has a good base, which lets him throw with solid zip. Plays within structure and isn't afraid to throw in tight windows across the middle of the field. Athletic enough to run and gain yards and will roll out. He needs to do a better job of making subtle movements in the pocket to buy more time. Shows good accuracy, but will have some questionable throws into traffic from time to time. Quick processer and progresses through reads well. McCarthy doesn't try to force plays and just takes what the defense gives him. Quick release. Still feel like he needs another year of development before becoming an NFL starter. Reminds me of a better version of Alex Smith to Deshaun Watson lite.

Daniels is the toughest eval because he needs an offense to utilize his unique skillset. Daniels is already an NFL QB elite runner, who possesses elite acceleration and very nimble with how he navigates through traffic. Although, he shows some fearlessness running in the interior of defensive lines and he's taken some big hits and needs to learn to avoid these. Shows a good base in the pocket and works through his reads. Inconsistent with accuracy. He can throw to the wrong shoulder or missing by a few feet in the short to intermediate passing game. But when he needs to add loft/arch to a pass the accuracy continues to decline. While he's very athletic, he could do a better job with his pocket presence by backing out of some pockets(think Caleb, Russell Wilson, etc). If Daniels can improve his MOF processing/accuracy, he has a very high ceiling. Reminds me of Lamar Jackson lite (better passer IMHO..)

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

It's hard not to root for a guy like Penix Jr. Been through it and back and around again. Big armed passer, at times thrower (TLDR definition - Throwing to a spot rather then passing to a player). From Florida, coming in at 6'3/215 ish. Wasn't the biggest name coming out of HS. 3* that eventually landed at Indiana after decommitting from Tenn. From there it's been up & down, good & bad with some bad luck in the injury department. ACL, AC Joint/Shoulder, ACL (same knee), Shoulder injuries with many other bumps along the way. Plenty of prospects have said "enough is enough" in his situation but he's going until the wheels fall off.

He's had the ability to manipulate a pocket and improve his situation there long before he popped into the spotlight but has been inconsistent when moved off his spot at times (spec going right). Very heady though, always has a clock going. Doesn't take many bad sacks or panic but his footwork could tighten on some of his drops or certain times in the pocket. Cleaner the pocket the better. He can slide, step up and has a fearless attitude. He'll navigate through waves of bodies but accuracy can slip with bodies on floor close by. Still his focus, movements and poise moving around, buying time are pro-like and what you look for. Eyes stayed up, focused down field for the most part. Mechanics arent ideal or what you would "want" to see but it works. Hes got a funky delivery that can get messy when sped up. He's an ugly shooter but tosses darts and ropes across the field with plus velocity. Again he touches the pedal and straight gas shoots out. Think Dirk, Reggie even Cartwright back in the day. It's ugly but it works. At times too much arm in his passes, shoots from the hip, footwork is mostly good but he gets messy when he's moved at times. It works though. His release is very quick though. One of the quickest in the class imo. That's a real question with him. Can he deliver consistently when he'll be forced to get the ball out quick on the regular bc of how much better NFL defenses are. His delivery could be tightened up some but it works. And his release is lightening quick. It's a 3/4 from the hip so obviously could be more efficient but at the same time he'll be a 24 yo rookie. And he's got some lower body explosion as well. Might not look like the most athletic guy but he'll jump almost 40 (38 in the past) inches and can absolutely take advantage of grass the defense can't cover or if he has to scramble. He's a gamer but has some actual athleticism too.


One of the better deep ball passers in the class. He's accurate, throws with plus placement and touch. It's his best asset out of his bag and in a lot of ways is built for what the NFL has become minus the lack of wheels. Between his leadership, skill-set and IQ he has the ability to lead a serious vertical passing attack to stress any defense if complemented with a set table. Can work all 3 levels of the field but has yet to showcase he can really do it consistently while be pressured. His "arm" or "arm talent" is pretty ****in awesome though. Even among NFL players. It's up there. He dials up easy gas, the ball just slices through air. Can drive the ball anywhere on the field with above average accuracy, plus velocity, placement. He's got NFL qualities there.

This is a hell of a play and why having an arm matters.




I've seen him recognize different blitzes from different players at different times in different games from second level. Poised and always moving. Aware stays steady and alert. Looks off defenders, pumps to move them, leads his wr and is consistently on time. In his passes and in the pocket. IQ and instincts look NFL starter caliber.

Very underrated and improved working the mof - leading his wrs safely, hitting moving targets and just his general confidence. Much better in that shallow zone, about 10 - 20 yards out. More a result of the offense but he was very good when he did work that area. Per PFF he had 45 attempts (5th most - top 5 were all within 15 attempts of each other) MOF 10-20 per PFF has him completing 71.1% 556 yards 4 TD/1 INT.

Doesn't fumble or take sacks. Some not so good INT but every young QB has them. Pocket presence has and needs to continue to improve. His "feel" has gotten a lot better over the years. Known as a leader and for his resiliency on & off the field. Natural fit for the position in terms of intangibles.

PFF graded quarterbacks on PA last season:
Michael Penix Jr (led the NCAA) — 93.1
Jayden Daniels — 92.7
Drake Maye — 86.4
J.J. McCarthy — 86.3
Bo Nix — 83.4
Spencer Rattler — 81.3
Caleb Williams — 70.8

Big time throws’ PFF charted off play-action:
Michael Penix Jr (#2 in the NCAA) — 18
Drake Maye — 7
J.J. McCarthy — 7
Caleb Williams — 6
Jayden Daniels — 5
Bo Nix — 5
Spencer Rattler — 3

Don't know many starting NFL QB's with 3 torn ACL's. He's already walking through a minefield on 2. "Every snap could be your last" ... not really with today's medicine and science but Penix probably can't handle any more knee injuries or lower body injuries considering the effects they can have to other parts of the body.

There are more than a few instances (pre injuries) of him using his legs to create but they'll be few and far between next level. The type of athlete he'll be facing next level will be so much more advanced mentally and physically.

This was one of the better plays you'll see all year. Few and far between he won't be able to get away with the lack of athleticism and elusiveness next level but there are examples of him using his legs for positive plays.





He made a bunch of top tier passes on the run last year. The USC one is up there with almost anyone. You won't be designing runs for Penix. You'll be relying on his situational awareness and instincts to take over. He does have "playmaking" ability it'll come in spurts and come out in different ways. Not a negative but it's not something you can expect or plan around that much as an offense. You just know it's there.

Another thing worth mentioning again is the protection. Penix often put his body into passes and wasn't touched. Given space to use. That'll change next level considering the complexity of pressure designs, coverages and the talent level. Can he consistently deliver when his OL is operating full tilt? Comebacks in bad weather when he needs to get the ball out quick? His release is dynamite but getting there takes time. Struggled during a 8 game strech you saw a different picture out there. At times too many deep shots for the sake and thats valid when you have that trio.  When pressured consistently he struggled and his cmp% dipped 15% during a good stretch this year. Started off around 75% and dipped to 60%. As did his PFF grade. Big time throws stayed the same (almost 2.6 per game) but there was a lot of "shot taking" to space with 1v1 to WRS when you had other areas available for yards as well. Again comes with the territory living so much off the deep ball.

The UM game will be hard to erase for some but he had an unbelievable year. Texas defense isn't exactly NFL caliber or sophisticated but they pressured him (15) somewhat consistently and he delivered as he did against Michigan St (11).

If you draft Penix Jr you have to make sure the "table is set" for him. That sounds obvious enough but Im talking from ownership to installing a system like hes in now (air raid that'll have to be tweaked some for the next level but is very attainable with some effort) to guys like Odunze, Polk etc that can avg 17 + per rec, make it happen in the end zone and most importantly run crisp efficient routes.

Ownership/Expectations - Patience is key in any of these situations as everyone that pays attention knows but it absolutely starts at the top. If you draft Penix a lot of things will need to change. From the install to personnel. Likely coaching changes or major adjustments. I'm not getting into what we've seen and come to expect here. Needless to say that would be a big change in philosophy if you go all in on MPJ. You'll need an owner that set the tone and allow the process to happen and not have coaches looking over the shoulders. Set expectations but patience is key.

Coaching - I touched on coaching, it starts with DeBoer (as HC NAIA Sioux Falls goes 67-3 with 3 titles). Hes not at Clemson or Bama or UG. Hes doing this at Washington. If they win tn they should start building a statue but it's far from just him. The OL has been absolutely tremendous in not giving up pressure and giving MPJ a nice pocket to work in. Pass pro would be key for obvious reasons - you're living & dying off big plays downfield. DeBoer has been brilliant and deserves a ton of recognition but guys like Scott Huff and JaMarcus Shepherd deserve looks for bigger spots themselves. The OL is arguably the best in football and won the Joe Moore award for best blocking unit in the country. The huskies wrs run specific efficient routes with little error. I would absolutely look at Shepherd if I was in the market for a wr coach. He's from the Mike Leach tree and really helped Purdue take a jump to the 5th passing offense during "covid." He's got experience, production and lives in the detail.

Personnel - Washington will have multiple top 30-60 picks this year, on both sides and will next year too. Everyone knows Odunze and how special he's been but Polk has a rep there as a big time player. That wr trio is NFL caliber and will all be playing on Sunday or get a real shot. The OL has multiple NFL prospects playing and again the defense has names too. This is an incredibly talented squad. It's hardly Penix or bust. So you'll need to replicate those skill-sets and depth. Deep threats that can win down field. Alpha like Odunze that can win over the middle, down field, plus body control and tracking ability helps. You'll need guys that can work the curl/flat area and give you some YAC there. A true Y seam buster. And efficient rb that can block. That said I would be more concerned with getting him top tier pass pro than targets if im drafting Penix. I'm a huge believer in, your "OL doesn't have to be perfect" - be tough, athletic, smart and survive. You don't need dominance but I think getting him the right guys upfront is huge. Esp along the IOL. At times he puts a lot of his body in his passes. When you're looking at quick drops, targeting the mof, defense open, closed. Adding in his delivery at times. You're going to want as clean a pocket as you can get. He's not quite the athlete or mover like Maye, Williams, JJ or Daniels.

Washington's offensive attack is built on going all in on the passing attack almost abandoning the run game. Old school Texas Tech territory. And this "scheme" or "design" or we you want to call it wasn't just cooked up in an offseason. DeBoer has experience with Penix dating back to Indiana and has been developing with other coaches like Grubb during different stops along the way. So this won't be switching some papers and plays and just "we're running this now." You'll go through through rough stretches bc you're living off big plays. Youll have "streaky" stretches. You'll need an understanding that this will take time. Washington's offense takes the best of AR - horizontally attacking the overhang defenders stretching olb or compromising corners with hi/lows to the boundary when most run it to the mof. While a lot of programs have the wrs try to manipulate defenders Washington's wrs simply play to space/attack leverage - as much as possible on vertical shots. The incorporate tes but probably should actually utilize them more for balance but when you have a trio like they do why bother.

Another thing worth mentioning again is the protection. Penix often put his body into passes and wasn't touched. Given space to use. That'll change next level considering the complexity of pressure designs, coverages and the talent level. Can he consistently deliver when his OL is operating full tilt? Comebacks in bad weather when he needs to get the ball out quick? His release is dynamite but getting there takes time. Struggled during a 8 game strech you saw a different picture out there. At times too many deep shots for the sake and thats valid when you have that trio.  When pressured consistently he struggled and his cmp% dipped 15% during a good stretch this year. As did his PFF grade. Big time throws stayed the same (almost 2.6 per game) but there was a lot of "shot taking" to space with 1v1 to WRS when you had other spaces available for yards as well. Again comes with the territory living off the deep ball.


Raiders/Pierce


The good thing about drafting or targeting Penix Jr is that you know you'll have a very good chance to "build the team" or "set the table" before drafting him. You will be able to add some really nice pieces with the resources we have.

A Penix offense would take patience. An understanding that things might get streaky, it might not be all smooth sailing but the highs will be incredible if he's surrounded by top tier talent. Explosive, aggressive football with a tough, more traditional pocket passer targeting down field. You're going to want a strong PA game with a consistent bruiser at RB. Someone who demands attention from the second level and is hard to bring down. Not necessarily an explosive burner but someone who wont go down easy. Explosive, aggressive vertical attackers who are plus at the catch point, with a seam buster up the middle.

It would require some discipline and effort in terms of installation here. AVP doesn't scream Penix imo. That said he's an option that gives us some flexibility if we go that way. Again the "highs" of hitting on a guy like MPJ would be incredible. His arm, leadership qualities and intangibles are very real. And we would also be bringing in a potential blue chip prospect to help him along (one would have to think WR/T).

Plus it's just good to know who's, who. For the draft but we end up seeing so many of these guys on Sundays on the other team. Nice to know what they can do, where they came from etc..

 

[Ivan]

Should be in the Draft Forum.

If that were the case we would be talking about the Red Sox in this forum, and no one wants to do that.

 

[Ivan]

************ BGC, this stuff is almost a week old. Can’t you do any better than that?

 

[Ivan]

Interesting format, starting in the mid second round and moving forward from there. But you have apparently left out the articulation skills of these QB’s, and the picture is incomplete until we get those ratings. Are they poetic and graceful? Do they prune excess words from their speech? Is their sentence strucure clear and efficient? These are things we really must know about each prospect. Forty times Shnorty times, no need for high jump or long jump, do they form their vowels and consonants precisely and efficiently? This is what matters most.

 

[Uptown]

 

[rochrist]

Would like to use this thread to specifically talk QB's. What they bring to table, how they would fit here. What type of things would need to happen to help them achieve success/their full potential.

Every scouting report is a little different bc every prospect is a different. Playing with different players, against different players, with different coaches. So theres not really a uniform way for me. I just try to focus on what I see in high leverage situations and work from there to be honest.

Jonathan James McCarthy
21 yo / 1 - 20 - 03 from La Grange, IL
Mom was a figure skater which probably had something to do with him playing hockey as well. Supposedly he was a very good young prospect. Very tight with his family and faith. 5* recruit. Has dated his gf, Katya Kuropas, since hs. I believe they are still engaged.

High School and College records
26 - 3 Nazareth
8 - 0 IMG AC (big jump in development)
27 - 1 UM
61/3



One of the few clear leaders on that team. If he was eligible he would have been team captain from almost day one. Loves the game, competition. Isn't afraid of hard work, seems comes natural. Not as a chore.
If you're drafting a QB this high, any round really, with the intention of "franchise guy." You want them to be the hardest worker in the room.

McCarthy took a big step in terms of his progressions, timing, anticipation and field vision this past year/off-season. Occasional plays where he'll look like a 20 yo (pocket presence or accountability can be a little messy) but he's been nothing but steady, more than solid and poised in some of the biggest games/situations in his young career. IQ has to improve but it's solid in context. Again mostly deciphering coverage and variations it'll spill into post/snap. He's displayed the smarts, subtleties and nuances you want to see at this stage but does have a long way to go in certain areas.

There's a decent difference in his dropbacks however. Short, intermediate vs deep stuff. He was compact, decisive with clean mechanics with stuff about 30 yards in (mesh, the deep in off Yankee, dagger, sail, slants. Things came out very quickly. On time with accuracy anticipation and velocity. We've see so many of the throws and take a look at a few below. The deep shots arent quite as clean in terms of marrying those drop backs with his mechanics. Occasionally you'll see his upper half/release become inconsistent but his footwork is also lacking at times on deep stuff. He does a very good job keeping his feet firing but base can be little inconsistent when moved off his spot and firing deep or quick. Or climbing up the pocket. The experience/attempts aren't there so it's not a huge surprise.



*First play is something UM ran a lot. Motion to flat with a (#1)sail route. Motion/flat to pull a defender but it doesn't quite work to full effect so McCarthy uses a pump fake to draw a defender down. Far hash throw with plenty of gas to where only his man can really make a play. You see this a lot throughout his film. Quick little fakes to move defenders.
Second play same as the first. Motion with sail. Far hash to sideline with plenty of gas and anticipation. JJM likely knows where this going and is committed but he throws this while his guy isn't out of break/even looking yet. Again plenty of gas.
Third play might look routine enough but it's quite impressive imo. Disguised pressure looks like delayed creeper blitz from the second level. Lineman dropping in coverage. Looks off 18 moves a LB to hit 1.
Fourth play is big boy stuff too imo. You know pressure is coming even though you're well prepared to counter it. Still rush is in his face. Impressive ability to manipulate this pocket by shuffling. Eyes down field whole time, running a dagger concept.
Fifth play is yankee concept. Just throws a rope to his man. Balls out extremely quick with no hesitation or hitch.
Last play is something you need in today's game. Ability to move, extend or create and make a play. His head is up you can see his eyes move from target to target.*

One of, if not the best anticipatory MOF passer in the class along with Maye (big names) Passes with plus anticipation and confidence there. Manipulates mof defenders to buy some room or time. Whether he's on the move outside the pocket, in the pocket, someone in his face. He's very comfortable with these routes/concepts. Lets it rip whether its an underneath crosser off mesh variations, slants, seam or others
like we saw above. He's thrown some beauties between, over defenders.Very aggressive here, attacks and does have the ability to layer a ball between defenders to where only his guy can get it. Doesnt have a ton of picthes but hes more than a one speed passer (Baker, Murray) Excellent in PA, RPO/selling something to the defense.

Occasionally will stare down his first read or target. Usually the ball is coming out hot with great placement but it's something he has to clean up. Especially against guys that have been doing this a lot longer than him.

Arm isn't going to be confused with Mahomes or Allen but he generates easy gas off quick releases from various angles and release slots. Above average velocity and touch. Strength could improve some but well pass the threshold. Placement and accuracy need to improve as well on the deep stuff. Displayed some top tier qualities (accuracy, ability to layer passes) under real pressure or on the move. Both physical (250-300+ athletes chasing him) and mental (big games multiple OSU, UG etc) Has completed 70% 1700 + yards 7 TD/3 INT when blitzed over the last two years.


Very good "on the move" very agile, mobile and athletic. 6'3 205 plenty of room for his big boy weight that'll be arriving in the next few years. He's able to scramble and shake off arm tackles or weak attempts. He'll run sub 4.6 and with some added muscle and the right calls. Hell be a threat on a few designed runs a game. Nothing major but i wouldn't hesitate to call 2-3 specific ones for him. His pocket presence is a bright spot imo. Not sure what others see there but he's very heady, eyes are always down field. Footwork can definitely improve but hes usually moving, shuffling, trying to create. I've seen him ID, alert pressure. He does try to do too much at times back there but there's not many negatives in this area. His comp% when scrambling is quite impressive compared to the rest of the class. JMM 71.4 Nix 58.6 Daniels 46.7 Williams 41.8 Maye 36.8 Penix 23.3 That's quite that gap.



The volume isn't there but there's no doubting his ability to step up in big games against big schools. The game, moment, never looked "too big" he's the definition of a "gamer." Went toe to toe and outplayed a lot of very good QB's like CJ Stroud. Big games and moments aren't really a thing anymore when you've lost 3 times in like 6-7 years.

Deciphering 3rd level coverage rotations, peelbacks and at times second level disguise can give him trouble. So much of this is experience, real time reps.

Don't see many "hospital" balls knows how to lead and where to steer his targets. Whether it's simply leading away from coverage or throwing low to avoid a head shot. Kind of speaks to and falls in the anticipation department but worth noting after the last few years.



Good possibility he won't have a top 50 target drafted this year despite Wilson being a player. Easily the worst group of targets among the big names ...
LSU - Nabers, Thomas, Lacy, Aiyuk (briefly at ASU)
WASH - Odunze, Polk, McMillan
USC - Addison, Washington, Marvin Mims
UNC - Walker, Green, Downs

*Early Declare QBs who started multiple years ranked by Career EPA per play*

1. Tua Tagovailoa - 0.463
2. CJ Stroud - 0.373
3. Justin Fields - 0.298
4. CALEB WILLIAMS - 0.240
5. Patrick Mahomes - 0.223
6. JJ MCCARTHY - 0.223
7. DRAKE MAYE - 0.159
8. Lamar Jackson - 0.079


From PFF 5th Wins above replacement
90 + % under pressure 90 + % 3rd & 4th down
Outside the pocket 76% Positively grade throws 86%


How was he on "money downs" , "high leverage", "pressure" plays. 3rd & long, 3rd & 4th, pressure, top defenses ...

vs 7 top 20 defenses (SP +)
70% 7 TD 1 INT 1RUSH TD

vs 10 top 50 defenses
70% 8.2 YA 1733 yards 12 TD 1 INT 3 RUSH TD

From Fanduel/Jim Sannes
Avg Opp. Def Rank PA ATT V Top 50 D
JJ McCarthy 38.8 63.3%
Jayden Daniels 46.7 56.3%
Michael Penix 57.3 55.9%
Drake Maye. 61.0 44.7%
Caleb Williams 64.6 53.4%
Bo Nix 79.2 41.1%

"That average defensive ranking will be the seventh-toughest for any FBS quarterback drafted since 2010 once McCarthy gets the call."

On 3rd and 6+
% of att AY/A Sack Rate
JJ McCarthy 17.8% 13.1 9.7%
Bo Nix. 11.5% 11.9 1.8%
Jayden Daniels 10.7% 10.7 12.5%
Drake Maye 14.1% 8.8 11.8%
Caleb Williams 13.1% 8.2 15.0%
Michael Penix. 12.1% 6.4 6.2%

That 13.1 AY/A easily led this class and is the third-best mark for any quarterback prospect since 2010, trailing just Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray. McCarthy's (relatively) lower AY/A is also excusable given 17.8% of his pass attempts came in these obvious passing situations."

Scramble rate on non-pressured dropbacks (college career)

Jayden Daniels: 9.4%
Justin Fields: 8.0%
Drake Maye: 7.0%
Will Levis: 4.4%
Bryce Young: 4.0%
Brock Purdy: 3.8%
Bo Nix: 3.5%
JJ McCarthy: 3.0%
Caleb Williams: 3.0%
CJ Stroud: 2.1%

ADot compared to last year's class and this one
Young: 10.0
CJ Stroud: 10.7
Anthony Richardson: 11.5
Will Levis: 8.6
Hendon Hooker 11.7

Caleb Williams: 9.2
Drake Maye: 11.0
Jayden Daniels: 10.5
JJ McCarthy: 9.8
Michael Penix: 10.7


Great doc for QB's

2024 Draft QBs

Broad Data QB ,Current Age (January),Career Starts,Record,PFF OFF,PFF Pass,PFF Run,NFL PR,QBR Caleb Williams,22.1,33,23-10,90.3,84.6,82.6,117.4,82.3 Drake Maye,21.4,26,17-9,90.6,89.1,73.8,100.2,78.8 Jayden Daniels,23.1,55,37-18,94.7,92,92.4,143.7,95.7 J.J. McCarthy,21,28,27-1,90.6,87.9,78,116.6,...

docs.google.com

View attachment 56583
Well ahead the pack here

View attachment 56581
This one is interesting bc when you filter this info down to "dropback passes only" McCarthy comes out ahead 30.1% on target percentage followed by Michael Penix Jr (29.3%) and Caleb Williams (28.9%). Daniels’ percentage is only 23.4% and Nix’s is even lower (19.4%).

(first one below is 5 + yards to go)
View attachment 56584


I think he would be a great fit here. Just by going off initial opinions of AVP and watching some of his offenses. I think McCarthy is someone who he could really utilize to get the most out of his system.
A) AVP loved generating explosive plays from the run game.
B)Big-time PA, Browns were top 7 I believe in PA %.
C)Browns used a lot of bootlegs to play off their OZ rush attack. You can really hurt teams on the backside here.
D)save critical passes, traditional drop backs for 3rd down. Max protect if need be.
E)A lot of Dagger of PA, Mesh, hi/lows (motion to flat / sail)
F)someone who can create when things breakdown

I could go on but the similarities are there all over the place. In today's game you need to be able to throw on the run, handle and adapt to pressure, come through on 3rd down, create when pressure is highest.

Per PFF Big Time Throws Off PA
Michael Penix Jr (#2 in football) - 18
Drake Maye - 7
J.J. McCarthy - 7
Caleb Williams - 6
Jayden Daniels - 5
Bo Nix - 5
Spencer Rattler - 3

Simply put McCarthy is a killer in so many areas that AVP values. Off-script, 3rd down, bootlegs, PA. The only thing that doesn't quite come together is the fact that AVP really needs a big arm QB to attack vertically selectively. McCarthy's low volume, inconsistencies reading the 3rd level could lead to some hesitancy but he checks every other box on & off the field. Teams that dig into analytics will love McCarthy.

This is my guy. Has been for awhile. He's going to end up with a far better career than Daniels, absent any unforeseen catastrophic injury.

 

[rochrist]

Once they added AVP I started looking at QB prospects that are good fits for the system. Maye seems ideal but obviously their ability to obtain him is not entirely in their control. Daniels seems like a less than ideal fit. So I started looking at the “next tier” and McCarthy really jumps out at me. He may need a little more seasoning but I like the potential a lot. Thank you for putting so much detail into this BGC.

I could see the potential in a trade down with Atlanta where they pick up a 2nd and next year’s 1st, draft an LT (Fashanu or Alt) or WR (Odunze), then flip Atlanta’s 2nd and their own 3rd to move up into the 20s and grab McCarthy. Then still have pick 34 left.

I doubt he lasts into the 20s.

 

[rochrist]

Is there a consensus on where McCarthy is supposed to land? I have seen anything from top 10 to early 2nd.

The 2d round projections are from earlier. His projection has only gone up.

 

[rochrist]

You make a great case for trading down to the 8-12 spot and pick up some valuable draft capital, and still get your QB of the future. I am very conflicted about this.

I read recently someone's thought that between now and the draft virtually EVERY QB available will have his draft expectations RAISED. Just like we are seeing with McCarthy. At the end of the season, he was viewed as a 2nd round, high 3rd round pick. Now without throwing another pass in competition he has shot up to mid first round status.

They ALL look so promising now, yet the failure rate among QB's even at the highest levels is scarily high. I'm hoping May will still be there at 3. Talent wise I think Daniels might even be better, but those damned "skinny legs" scare me. In a sense he kind of reminds me of RG3, who was everyone's cup of tea....until he wasn't.

At any rate thanks for all the detailed info. I'm once again smarter for having read your stuff. Unfortunately it didn't make me feel more decisive. What an interesting draft this is going to be.

I'm going on record. Daniels will bust, or at best be a journeyman.