How many meaningful innings will Paps pitch?

[BradyManny]

I'm starting a new stat for Papelbon: "Meaningful innings pitched."

I will graciously declare that a "meaningful" inning is any inning in which the lead is 2 runs or less. Frankly, I'd be tempted to stick it at 1 run, but I'll be lenient.

Here we are, finally getting a glimpse of that final spot in our rotation, and it looks a lot like last season...until Lester is rushed back to Fenway, we can look forward to seeing our bullpen decimated every five days.

And how many "meaningful innings" has Papelbon pitched so far this season....


ZERO.

Sigh...I hope we do see him in the rotation some day in his career....

 

[mtbykr]

I would much rather have a lights out closer and a fill in 5th starter until lester gets back then to have paps as as starter and no one to close games. Look at what Mariano has done for the yankers....having a great closer is much more important than a decent #5. (which in a couple months we should have anyway with lester back).........it's april 8th...relax

 

[sdaniels7114]

Even though I'm not a big Tavarez fan, I gotta say he did a reasonable job. The game was lost by way of JD Drew's defense and JC Romero giving up five hits to the five batters he faced. Take Paps out of the bull pen and everyone who remains moves up a notch in responsibility.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

I think it is too early to draw any conclusions, but I agree with the point of this thread. So far Paps has thrown zero meaningful innings, rather than the 5+ he would have seen in a start.

of course a closer isn't going to get many opportunities when a team is 2-3 and won one game 7-1. if you think this is a losing team over the course of the season of course he should be a starter. the idea is that they're already a winning team and therefore require a closer.

 

[Foley]

I would much rather have a lights out closer and a fill in 5th starter until lester gets back then to have paps as as starter and no one to close games. Look at what Mariano has done for the yankers....having a great closer is much more important than a decent #5. (which in a couple months we should have anyway with lester back).........it's april 8th...relax

Why? Its ok for a 5th starter to blow a game but not ok for a closer? The fifth starter has a whole lot more chances to blow a game than a closer would. And if you think that Rivera would be a closer if he had the ability to be a starter you're fooling yourself.

Even though I'm not a big Tavarez fan, I gotta say he did a reasonable job. The game was lost by way of JD Drew's defense and JC Romero giving up five hits to the five batters he faced. Take Paps out of the bull pen and everyone who remains moves up a notch in responsibility.

Tavarez allowed 11 baserunners in 4IP; A 2.75WHIP is not a reasonable job. After Youngs hit Tavarez allowed a single, a single, a strikeout, a walk and a single. Four runs would have scored in that inning even if Drew played the ball perfectly and held Young to a double. And yes, Romero sucked. Romero has sucked his entire career and having Tavarez pitch as a starter will allow more innings for him. Since most of Tavarez's starts will likely be 4-6IP there will be a greater need from JC Romero, Kyle Snyder and the rest of the bullpen to pitch the innings that the starter should have. While Papelbon certainly wouldn't go 8-9IP every time, I'd be pretty confident that he'd pitch into the 6th, 7th and 8th a whole lot more than Tavarez would.

Yesterday was also a perfect example of why the closer is an asinine role. Close game in the 6th inning, guy on third, one out, and who do you bring in? JC Romero and his career 1.52WHIP. Not your best reliever to come in and make sure the rally doesn't get out of hand, because his job is to pitch the 9th inning of 3 run games against Kansas City. More games are lost in the middle innings because of guys like Romero and Snyder than games lost in the 9th by a less than adequete closer.

And some fun stats about 2006:
Saves Papelbon recorded against the DRays: 6.
Saves Papelbon recorded against playoff teams (AL and NL): 4.
40% of Papelbons saves (14) came against the 3 worst teams in the AL.
9% of Papelbons saves (3) came against the 3 best teams in the AL.
63% of Papelbons saves (22) came against sub-.500 teams.

Moral of the story: Most of Papelbons innings last season came against crappy teams. While certainly a win is a win and a save is a save, my point is that even a guy like Pineiro would probably be able to convert 80% of the saves being that a majority of the innings are against the dregs of baseball. Everyone says that a lights out closer (which Papelbon wasn't last season in terms of actually converting saves) is neccessary to win because of the close games against great teams... but they happen far less often. And he was only 13 for 19 last season in 1-run games.

 

[BradyManny]

it's april 8th...relax

I'd send that right back to the whole "OH MY GOD WE HAVE NO CLOSER!!!!" crowd that panicked to the point where the Red Sox FO allowed Paps to close again.

I am just going to co-sign everything Foley said.

Yesterday was also a perfect example of why the closer is an asinine role. Close game in the 6th inning, guy on third, one out, and who do you bring in? JC Romero and his career 1.52WHIP.

So damn true.


The bottom line for me is that a guy with a 3.5 ERA would probably only have 3-5 more blown saves a year than Papelbon. Of those 3-5 games, we probably lose 3 of them. To me, that's a waste of Papelbon, who as Foley has pointed out, has not proven why he's a "great closer", only that he's a great pitcher who has been closing games.

And for the life of me, I can't understand why a "fifth start" is so damn unimporant...to me, having our bullpen take a beating every 5 days is the problem. And perhaps more importantly, on a team with a payroll of $160 mill, Wakefield should be your fifth starter, in which case, I would argue we're missing a fourth starter. Which apparently makes a difference, right, b/c what number you are in the rotation means your games count more, of course...

 

[Foley]

Tonight we witnessed the perfect use of the best pitcher in the bullpen. Close game, guys on base, one out and Papelbon comes in to kill any chance of the rally increasing. Meaningful, important outs. If Papelbon were used in that same situation when it happened in the 6th or 7th I would be much happier with him in the bullpen, because it is those situations when a dominant reliever is really needed. Not the 9th inning just for the sake of it being the 9th inning. We have all seen how completely dominating he can be, and wasting that by having him pitch most of his innings at unimportant times is a complete waste of his abilities.

 

[mtbykr]

Tonight we witnessed the perfect use of the best pitcher in the bullpen. Close game, guys on base, one out and Papelbon comes in to kill any chance of the rally increasing. Meaningful, important outs. If Papelbon were used in that same situation when it happened in the 6th or 7th I would be much happier with him in the bullpen, because it is those situations when a dominant reliever is really needed. Not the 9th inning just for the sake of it being the 9th inning. We have all seen how completely dominating he can be, and wasting that by having him pitch most of his innings at unimportant times is a complete waste of his abilities.

What???? This thread was started because paps hadn't (according to the first post) pitched any meaningful innings thus far this year. Paps comes in tonight and saves the game...and let's face it if paps was our #5 starter we probably lose that game tonight with the bullpen the way it is. Paps is our closer, but even tito says that he will use him when he believes is the most critical part of the game!

If we have paps as a starter, then we have starters that will usually give us 6-7 solid innings....however unless the O can bring in a ton of runs, we are going to lose a lot of games late because of our pen. That is very demoralizing to a team (both starters and everyday players) ESPN even alluded to it tonight that the players want paps there because they don't want to lose games late that they should win and he gives them the best chance to do that.

Paps is a dominant pitcher who's heart wants to be a closer..in an interview on WEEI he said that it helps him pitch better when the pressure is on (coming in late) and that as a starter he just didn't get that kind of adrenaline rush that he wants.. I realize that a lot of people here would rather have him start to get "more meaningful innings" but the coaches, players, and most importantly paps himself, think the best role for him on the team is the closers role.....i would rather listen to them

Just my $.02

 

[Foley]

What???? This thread was started because paps hadn't (according to the first post) pitched any meaningful innings thus far this year. Paps comes in tonight and saves the game...and let's face it if paps was our #5 starter we probably lose that game tonight with the bullpen the way it is. Paps is our closer, but even tito says that he will use him when he believes is the most critical part of the game!

And he will have few outings like this that are really meaningful, unless Francona truely starts to use him at the most critical parts of the game regardless of the inning. The ninth inning is not always the most critical part of the game, and if a majority of his outings come in the ninth inning than much of the time it wont be a meaningful outing. Its smarter to use him to fix the mistkes of the middle relief as opposed to just using him to pitch the 9th and a few outs in the 8th now and then.

If we have paps as a starter, then we have starters that will usually give us 6-7 solid innings....however unless the O can bring in a ton of runs, we are going to lose a lot of games late because of our pen. That is very demoralizing to a team (both starters and everyday players)

And that was exactly my point. The middle relief sucks. When one middle reliever comes in the 6th or 7th and puts on a couple guys who comes in next? Another crappy middle reliever. Having mediocre pitchers fix mediocre pitchers mistakes rarely works.

Paps is a dominant pitcher who's heart wants to be a closer..in an interview on WEEI he said that it helps him pitch better when the pressure is on (coming in late) and that as a starter he just didn't get that kind of adrenaline rush that he wants.. I realize that a lot of people here would rather have him start to get "more meaningful innings" but the coaches, players, and most importantly paps himself, think the best role for him on the team is the closers role.....i would rather listen to them

Just my $.02

If he truely wants to pitch when the pressure is on then thats great. My point is that the ninth inning is not always the most pressure filled inning of the game and that he is more valuable coming in when the game is on the line.

 

[mtbykr]

And he will have few outings like this that are really meaningful, unless Francona truely starts to use him at the most critical parts of the game regardless of the inning. The ninth inning is not always the most critical part of the game, and if a majority of his outings come in the ninth inning than much of the time it wont be a meaningful outing. Its smarter to use him to fix the mistkes of the middle relief as opposed to just using him to pitch the 9th and a few outs in the 8th now and then.

And that was exactly my point. The middle relief sucks. When one middle reliever comes in the 6th or 7th and puts on a couple guys who comes in next? Another crappy middle reliever. Having mediocre pitchers fix mediocre pitchers mistakes rarely works.

If he truely wants to pitch when the pressure is on then thats great. My point is that the ninth inning is not always the most pressure filled inning of the game and that he is more valuable coming in when the game is on the line.

Ok well we can agree on that....if tito chooses to only use him in the 9th then i agree. However listening to tito he was saying that he plans to use paps when the most critical situation is....i guess we will see!

 

[BradyManny]

Paps comes in tonight and saves the game...and let's face it if paps was our #5 starter we probably lose that game tonight with the bullpen the way it is. Paps is our closer, but even tito says that he will use him when he believes is the most critical part of the game!

Maybe we would've lost last nite's, but if Paps was our fifth starter, we probably would've won the game Tavarez lost, and he would've gone much deeper, meaning Donnelly and everyone else who was used in mop up of Tavarez's mess would have been available last nite.

Again, I only want to see a great pitcher in the bullpen if he CANNOT start. And with Papelbon, there's no evidence to suggest he cannot be a great starter.

 

[mtbykr]

Maybe we would've lost last nite's, but if Paps was our fifth starter, we probably would've won the game Tavarez lost, and he would've gone much deeper, meaning Donnelly and everyone else who was used in mop up of Tavarez's mess would have been available last nite.

Again, I only want to see a great pitcher in the bullpen if he CANNOT start. And with Papelbon, there's no evidence to suggest he cannot be a great starter.

Paps doesn't want to start....and you can't say that if he pitched the night before we probably win, that's way to abstract. The big show right now is actually talking about how important a "shut down" closer is. I want a better #5 starter, but i think lester will be that and we just have to make it through a month or two before he's back. Just think about the playoffs (way ahead i know) however i remember back in 04 when foulke would come in i knew the game was over....imagine that this year without a great closer. I think Foulke was the MVP of the 04 postseason, and if we have any hopes of going deep in the playoffs, we need paps there!

 

[BradyManny]

I think Foulke was the MVP of the 04 postseason, and if we have any hopes of going deep in the playoffs, we need paps there!

I'm certainly not doubting that Paps is a vicious weapon in the pen, I'm just thinking, if he COULD be an ace, wouldn't you rather have that in the rotation? Particularly considering the shoulder concerns...let's hope they use him judiciously.

 

[mtbykr]

I would rather have a stud closer (who we can use as we did last night) than a stud #5 starter. Just my opinion of course, let's hope tito uses him right!

 

[sdaniels7114]

I'm certainly not doubting that Paps is a vicious weapon in the pen, I'm just thinking, if he COULD be an ace, wouldn't you rather have that in the rotation? Particularly considering the shoulder concerns...let's hope they use him judiciously.

Its a one bird in the hand/two in the bush thing for me. And they d@mn well better use him judiciously I never heard Tito say that Paps was never gonna do two inning saves(such as Sunday night); but it sure was widely reported. So I'm wondering if they are already forgetting about the extra care they said they were gonna take with this guy.

 

[mtbykr]

Its a one bird in the hand/two in the bush thing for me. And they d@mn well better use him judiciously I never heard Tito say that Paps was never gonna do two inning saves(such as Sunday night); but it sure was widely reported. So I'm wondering if they are already forgetting about the extra care they said they were gonna take with this guy.

Tito said that about paps in a couple interviews i heard on WEEI (the big show and dalenholley) He just wants to keep him fresh for the long haul and not blow out his shoulder. I am sure if his pitch count was up sunday he would not have stayed in to finish the 9th