VJCPatriot
Pro Bowl Player
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- Apr 28, 2006
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It has never happened before in the BB regime, but when you get a feel for the prospects available in this year's draft, the unthinkable might just happen. The Patriots might go WR in Round 1. Yes, I said it. Round 1.
At first blush, it is an unthinkable occurrence. And yet, I remember a time I thought BB would never draft a linebacker in the 1st round, just because it had never been done before. BB shocked us by drafting Mayo high in the 1st round in 2008.
BB also has not been shy about drafting wide receivers, in just about every other draft, BB has taken a WR in the 2nd or 3rd round. However he has not yet ever expended a 1st round pick on a wideout. The most famous incident would be his trade down to bypass Dez Bryant in the 1st. Then again although Dez Bryant had 1st round talent he also had character question marks which might have induced BB to pass.
This year the Patriots have two clear cut needs - DL and TE. However the depth at DL and TE is such that it becomes doubtful that they will drop all the way down to us in the 1st. And might be gone by our pick in the second. So what do we do? If the value is right, IE the right player is there, we might pick a 1st round talent at WR instead of taking a guy who is valued more as a 2nd round DE or DT.
And the reason we'd go for WR in the 1st is to hedge against the risk that there are no viable TE choices available by our 2nd round pick. By going wideout in the 1st, that allows us to take a development prospect at TE later in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th round. Because it is quite POSSIBLE that all of Ebron, ASJ, Amaro, Niklas, etc. are gone by pick #62. And after that you have a pretty big dropoff.
There is also the Julian Edelman/Amendola situation. If Edelman prices himself out of our market, ie he signs a big 7m+ per deal with another team - we LOSE our leading receiver in production last season, and our best kick returner last season. ON TOP of that, Amendola is a 50/50 proposition to even play in 75% of the games next season. Which means we COULD BE in huge trouble at the WR position!
Therefore it makes sense to sign a 1st round WR, if the talent, and the draft falls in a certain way. Because a 1st round receiver is more likely to make an impact early, which is what we will need. I'm not saying this is the most attractive scenario, because MOST rookie WRs take around 3 years to blossom into their prime. However, our hand might be forced.
That is why I would like to see the Patriots sign a veteran WR in free agency. A guy like a Golden Tate or a Hakeem Nicks to a short deal with not too many bonuses to hedge against the loss of either Julian Edelman to free agency or Amendola to injury. I am not sure that Brady could survive with a wideout core comprised entirely of young bucks - Dobson, Thomkins, and Boyce. Not to mention that Dobson's health and availability have now come into question due to a stress fracture in his foot that may/or may not require offseason surgery!!
I will close by discussing 3 possible suitable WR candidates for the Pats at pick #29. Your discussion and feedback as always are valued.
==========
Candidate A. Marquise Lee, USC
6'0 192 lbs, 4.52 40, 38" VJ, 127" BJ
Collegiate productivity: 57 receptions 791 yards 4 TDs in junior season. Biletnikoff award winner in 2012.
Pros: Long strider with 'game speed' who made big plays in the collegiate game. An explosive playmaker in the deep game and adds versatility with his return game. Has good 'explosion' numbers in terms of vertical jump and broad jump. Played in a big program with USC so the level of competition is high. Came from a tough background and is a 'survivor' type. Earned a starting job at WR as a true freshman when he teamed up with Robert Woods to form one of the most productive WR tandems in college football. Considered a natural hands catcher and a good route runner. NFL comparison is Keenan Allen.
Cons: Timed 40 speed is not impressive for a deep threat receiver. Height is not impressive compared to 'new generation' of 6'3 and up receivers. Struggled with injuries in his junior season. He's a USC wide receiver, and fair or unfair that does carry some stigma.
Summary: The best part about Marquise Lee going to the Patriots is that he is a natural outside receiver and could be counted on to stretch the defense more than the receivers we currently have. However he has good but not 'great' size for the position and his 40 time is good but not impressive. But that's why he could slip to us. Injury in his final season is a concern for me as well as any teams that will be looking to pick him. He had a much better sophomore season when he was fully healthy.
Prospect Videos:
Marquise lee - Bing Videos
Marquise lee - Bing Videos
NFL Draft 365: USC WR Marqise Lee - NFL Videos
==========
Candidate B. Brandin Cooks, Oregon St
5'10 189 lbs
Combine:
4.33 40 yard dash*
36" VJ
120" BJ
6.76 3 cone
3.81 20 yd shuttle*
10.72 60 yd shuttle*
College productivity: 128 receptins 1,730 yards 16tds his junior season. Biletnikoff award winner in 2013.
Pros: Brandin Cooks exploded at the combine. His speed and athleticism is freakish. Cooks set a new combine record in the 60 yard shuttle, his agility is beyond elite, it's at another level. He is a versatile weapon offensively who projects to the slot at the pro level. But Cooks can simply run away from people, on top of that he is elusive and is a dangerous player on screens and WR handoffs where he gets the ball in open space. Some compare his game to Steve Smith and Desean Jackson. Which means he would be more than just a slot guy, he could play deep and take the lids off defenses. Was a durable player who did not miss many games. There's a lot to like about Cooks game.
Cons: Sometimes Cooks gets too lateral in his game, and by trying to make something out of nothing will occasionally create negative plays. Size. If Cooks were 2 inches taller, he'd probably be a top 10 pick and way out of our reach. Even then his explosive showing at the combine means, he might not last all the way to 29. But if he does last that long, the Patriots are a team famous for making super smurfs into productive offensive machines. Imagine a supercharged Deion Branch or Wes Welker. That's what Cooks could turn into for us. Tom Brady could be very happy with that kind of passing outlet.
Videos:
brandin cooks - Bing Videos
==========
Candidate C. Odell Beckham Jr, LSU
5'11 198 lbs
4.43 40
38.5" VJ
122" BJ
6.69 3 cone
3.94 20 yard shuttle*
10.93 60 yard shuttle*
College productivity: 59 receptions for 1,152 yards and 8 touchdowns. School record 2,315 all purpose yards including kick and punt returns.
Pros: Odell Beckham exhibits impressive fluidity in his route running. He also shows exceptional ability to track the ball on the fly and pull it down. His ability to highpoint the ball and bring it in safely even against contested coverage is what really impresses. Beckham's leaping ability isn't just a gaudy combine metric, he incorporates it into his game. Beckham is a big play receiver who averaged nearly 20 yards per catch in his last collegiate season. Beckham's extraordinary agility is also reflected in his combine numbers, the kid shows the ability to cut on a dime and change direction without losing much speed or fluidity. Finally he is an experienced kick/punt returner who I could envision stepping in right away and taking over special teams duties amd that could be a big need for us if Edelman leaves.
Cons: Odell's height is not exceptional. His 40 time could be a touch quicker but is still in the top echelon of receivers tested in the combine, just not elite. Like most college receivers he needs to improve his blocking ability and strength. He also needs to improve his consistency in offensive performance. Over 30% of Odell's production, 11 catches and 340 yards, in 2013 came against 2 teams.
Summary: Odell Beckham is a versatile deep play threat who impresses with his fluidity, route running, and ability to snatch the ball away from defenders using his leaping ability. He needs to improve on his overall consistency and the number of different routes he can run, but a big play threat is always welcome for an offense that needs an added threat to 'take the lid off' a defense. Beckham's return ability is a real strength that enhances his value for a team looking for a 'swiss army' knife of a player. Just get the ball in Beckham's hands and watch him make things happen with his elusiveness and speed in the open field. Beckham's NFL comparison is Percy Harvin.
Videos:
odell beckham - Bing Videos
At first blush, it is an unthinkable occurrence. And yet, I remember a time I thought BB would never draft a linebacker in the 1st round, just because it had never been done before. BB shocked us by drafting Mayo high in the 1st round in 2008.
BB also has not been shy about drafting wide receivers, in just about every other draft, BB has taken a WR in the 2nd or 3rd round. However he has not yet ever expended a 1st round pick on a wideout. The most famous incident would be his trade down to bypass Dez Bryant in the 1st. Then again although Dez Bryant had 1st round talent he also had character question marks which might have induced BB to pass.
This year the Patriots have two clear cut needs - DL and TE. However the depth at DL and TE is such that it becomes doubtful that they will drop all the way down to us in the 1st. And might be gone by our pick in the second. So what do we do? If the value is right, IE the right player is there, we might pick a 1st round talent at WR instead of taking a guy who is valued more as a 2nd round DE or DT.
And the reason we'd go for WR in the 1st is to hedge against the risk that there are no viable TE choices available by our 2nd round pick. By going wideout in the 1st, that allows us to take a development prospect at TE later in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th round. Because it is quite POSSIBLE that all of Ebron, ASJ, Amaro, Niklas, etc. are gone by pick #62. And after that you have a pretty big dropoff.
There is also the Julian Edelman/Amendola situation. If Edelman prices himself out of our market, ie he signs a big 7m+ per deal with another team - we LOSE our leading receiver in production last season, and our best kick returner last season. ON TOP of that, Amendola is a 50/50 proposition to even play in 75% of the games next season. Which means we COULD BE in huge trouble at the WR position!
Therefore it makes sense to sign a 1st round WR, if the talent, and the draft falls in a certain way. Because a 1st round receiver is more likely to make an impact early, which is what we will need. I'm not saying this is the most attractive scenario, because MOST rookie WRs take around 3 years to blossom into their prime. However, our hand might be forced.
That is why I would like to see the Patriots sign a veteran WR in free agency. A guy like a Golden Tate or a Hakeem Nicks to a short deal with not too many bonuses to hedge against the loss of either Julian Edelman to free agency or Amendola to injury. I am not sure that Brady could survive with a wideout core comprised entirely of young bucks - Dobson, Thomkins, and Boyce. Not to mention that Dobson's health and availability have now come into question due to a stress fracture in his foot that may/or may not require offseason surgery!!
I will close by discussing 3 possible suitable WR candidates for the Pats at pick #29. Your discussion and feedback as always are valued.
==========
Candidate A. Marquise Lee, USC
6'0 192 lbs, 4.52 40, 38" VJ, 127" BJ
Collegiate productivity: 57 receptions 791 yards 4 TDs in junior season. Biletnikoff award winner in 2012.
Pros: Long strider with 'game speed' who made big plays in the collegiate game. An explosive playmaker in the deep game and adds versatility with his return game. Has good 'explosion' numbers in terms of vertical jump and broad jump. Played in a big program with USC so the level of competition is high. Came from a tough background and is a 'survivor' type. Earned a starting job at WR as a true freshman when he teamed up with Robert Woods to form one of the most productive WR tandems in college football. Considered a natural hands catcher and a good route runner. NFL comparison is Keenan Allen.
Cons: Timed 40 speed is not impressive for a deep threat receiver. Height is not impressive compared to 'new generation' of 6'3 and up receivers. Struggled with injuries in his junior season. He's a USC wide receiver, and fair or unfair that does carry some stigma.
Summary: The best part about Marquise Lee going to the Patriots is that he is a natural outside receiver and could be counted on to stretch the defense more than the receivers we currently have. However he has good but not 'great' size for the position and his 40 time is good but not impressive. But that's why he could slip to us. Injury in his final season is a concern for me as well as any teams that will be looking to pick him. He had a much better sophomore season when he was fully healthy.
Prospect Videos:
Marquise lee - Bing Videos
Marquise lee - Bing Videos
NFL Draft 365: USC WR Marqise Lee - NFL Videos
==========
Candidate B. Brandin Cooks, Oregon St
5'10 189 lbs
Combine:
4.33 40 yard dash*
36" VJ
120" BJ
6.76 3 cone
3.81 20 yd shuttle*
10.72 60 yd shuttle*
College productivity: 128 receptins 1,730 yards 16tds his junior season. Biletnikoff award winner in 2013.
Pros: Brandin Cooks exploded at the combine. His speed and athleticism is freakish. Cooks set a new combine record in the 60 yard shuttle, his agility is beyond elite, it's at another level. He is a versatile weapon offensively who projects to the slot at the pro level. But Cooks can simply run away from people, on top of that he is elusive and is a dangerous player on screens and WR handoffs where he gets the ball in open space. Some compare his game to Steve Smith and Desean Jackson. Which means he would be more than just a slot guy, he could play deep and take the lids off defenses. Was a durable player who did not miss many games. There's a lot to like about Cooks game.
Cons: Sometimes Cooks gets too lateral in his game, and by trying to make something out of nothing will occasionally create negative plays. Size. If Cooks were 2 inches taller, he'd probably be a top 10 pick and way out of our reach. Even then his explosive showing at the combine means, he might not last all the way to 29. But if he does last that long, the Patriots are a team famous for making super smurfs into productive offensive machines. Imagine a supercharged Deion Branch or Wes Welker. That's what Cooks could turn into for us. Tom Brady could be very happy with that kind of passing outlet.
Videos:
brandin cooks - Bing Videos
==========
Candidate C. Odell Beckham Jr, LSU
5'11 198 lbs
4.43 40
38.5" VJ
122" BJ
6.69 3 cone
3.94 20 yard shuttle*
10.93 60 yard shuttle*
College productivity: 59 receptions for 1,152 yards and 8 touchdowns. School record 2,315 all purpose yards including kick and punt returns.
Pros: Odell Beckham exhibits impressive fluidity in his route running. He also shows exceptional ability to track the ball on the fly and pull it down. His ability to highpoint the ball and bring it in safely even against contested coverage is what really impresses. Beckham's leaping ability isn't just a gaudy combine metric, he incorporates it into his game. Beckham is a big play receiver who averaged nearly 20 yards per catch in his last collegiate season. Beckham's extraordinary agility is also reflected in his combine numbers, the kid shows the ability to cut on a dime and change direction without losing much speed or fluidity. Finally he is an experienced kick/punt returner who I could envision stepping in right away and taking over special teams duties amd that could be a big need for us if Edelman leaves.
Cons: Odell's height is not exceptional. His 40 time could be a touch quicker but is still in the top echelon of receivers tested in the combine, just not elite. Like most college receivers he needs to improve his blocking ability and strength. He also needs to improve his consistency in offensive performance. Over 30% of Odell's production, 11 catches and 340 yards, in 2013 came against 2 teams.
Summary: Odell Beckham is a versatile deep play threat who impresses with his fluidity, route running, and ability to snatch the ball away from defenders using his leaping ability. He needs to improve on his overall consistency and the number of different routes he can run, but a big play threat is always welcome for an offense that needs an added threat to 'take the lid off' a defense. Beckham's return ability is a real strength that enhances his value for a team looking for a 'swiss army' knife of a player. Just get the ball in Beckham's hands and watch him make things happen with his elusiveness and speed in the open field. Beckham's NFL comparison is Percy Harvin.
Videos:
odell beckham - Bing Videos