53 man poster projection after game 1 of the preseason

[BelichickFan]

Not to pick on you in particular, but that's 14 guys plus Slater of whom exactly 5 will play at once. Yes, it also contains the returners, but it's still a lot, leading to skimping elsewhere.

Understood but it's only one more than we would usually keep. Compared to last year I have White in for Blount, Maneri in for Mulligan and an extra WR.

It wouldn't kill me to knock Bolden off as he'd in the last year of his contract and I may prefer to keep a guy signed for three but I don't think this is outrageous.

 

[BelichickFan]

Christopher Price ‏@cpriceNFL 1m
On average last 5 seasons, #Patriots have opened with 7.8 DL; 7.4 LBs; 5.4 CBs; 4.2 S; 9.4 OL; 3.2 TEs; 5 RBs; 4.8 WRs & 2.2 QBs on roster.

 

[jmt57]

Christopher Price ‏@cpriceNFL 1m
On average last 5 seasons, #Patriots have opened with 7.8 DL; 7.4 LBs; 5.4 CBs; 4.2 S; 9.4 OL; 3.2 TEs; 5 RBs; 4.8 WRs & 2.2 QBs on roster.

True, but during that time they have transformed from primarily a 3-4 defense to a 4-3 (or a 3-3-5). With the current alignment I would think that you don't need that many linebackers and instead would want to go with either a ninth defensive lineman or tenth defensive back.

Also, assuming the Patriots go with three quarterbacks on the roster, then that is one less open roster spot for another position compared to the last several seasons.

 

[mgteich]

FWIW I've been leaning toward skimping on both RB & TE on the grounds that for the first cut, the "depth" talent there just isn't worth protecting:

QB (3) Brady, Mallett, Garoppolo
RB (4) Ridley, Vereen, White, Develin
WR (6) Edelman, Amendola, Dobson, LaFell, Thompkins, Boyce
TE (2) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui
C (2) Stork, Connolly
G (3) Mankins, Kline, Halapio
T (4) Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, Fleming
DE (4) Jones, Ninkovich, Buchanan, Moore
DT (5) Wilfork, Kelly, Easley, Jones, Siliga
ILB(2) Mayo, Beauharnais
OLB(4) Collins, Hightower, Fleming, Anderson
CB (5) Revis, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, Butler
S (5) McCourty, Harmon, Wilson, Chung, Ebner
ST (4) Gostkowski, Allen, Aiken, Slater

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: http://patspicker.patsfans.com

I have no serious disagreements, although I would project Smith winning a roster spot. I expect us to pick up a running back and a tight end.

 

[BradyBomb]

FWIW I've been leaning toward skimping on both RB & TE on the grounds that for the first cut, the "depth" talent there just isn't worth protecting:

QB (3) Brady, Mallett, Garoppolo
RB (4) Ridley, Vereen, White, Develin
WR (6) Edelman, Amendola, Dobson, LaFell, Thompkins, Boyce
TE (2) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui
C (2) Stork, Connolly
G (3) Mankins, Kline, Halapio
T (4) Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, Fleming
DE (4) Jones, Ninkovich, Buchanan, Moore
DT (5) Wilfork, Kelly, Easley, Jones, Siliga
ILB(2) Mayo, Beauharnais
OLB(4) Collins, Hightower, Fleming, Anderson
CB (5) Revis, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, Butler
S (5) McCourty, Harmon, Wilson, Chung, Ebner
ST (4) Gostkowski, Allen, Aiken, Slater

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: http://patspicker.patsfans.com

100% Agree with this roster.
Although I'm not loving Mallett, Boyce, Wilson and Ebner's spots on the roster.

After 4 games go by and you have decisions to make on Tyms and Browner.. who goes?

Me? I cut Boyce and Ebner. Keep Tyms and Browner. Boyce just doesnt bring enough to the table for me. The return game isnt that important in todays game and he is another slot guy whos a midget.. we have 2 of those already we dont need a 3rd. I'll go with the size,potential and deep threat on the outside thanks. Ebner is just.. meh

 

[jmt57]

Karen Guregian has a new roster projection:

Project 53: Early look at who makes the cut | Boston Herald

On offense she's going with three quarterbacks, Bolden as the fourth RB in addition to Develin at FB, six receivers including Slater with Boyce being cut, and D.J. Williams on the roster as a third TE. On the OL Connolly, Stork, Kline, Fleming and Halapio are in, leaving "Wendell as the tough cut".

There are four DE, with Buchanan and Moore making the cut over Smith and Bequette, while at DT she has Vellano being cut unless the injuries to Siliga and Jones give him an opening. Beauharnais edges out Fleming, Gordon, White and J Davis as the fifth LB, though she notes the preference would be to keep one more player at the position. In the secondary she goes with ten defensive backs, with five each at safety and corner. She notes some good plays by K Davis and has him joining Ebner and Wilson at safety over Chung, and puts Butler on the team as the fifth CB.

 

[ATippett56]

Karen Guregian has a new roster projection:

Project 53: Early look at who makes the cut | Boston Herald

On offense she's going with three quarterbacks, Bolden as the fourth RB in addition to Develin at FB, six receivers including Slater with Boyce being cut, and D.J. Williams on the roster as a third TE. On the OL Connolly, Stork, Kline, Fleming and Halapio are in, leaving "Wendell as the tough cut".

There are four DE, with Buchanan and Moore making the cut over Smith and Bequette, while at DT she has Vellano being cut unless the injuries to Siliga and Jones give him an opening. Beauharnais edges out Fleming, Gordon, White and J Davis as the fifth LB, though she notes the preference would be to keep one more player at the position. In the secondary she goes with ten defensive backs, with five each at safety and corner. She notes some good plays by K Davis and has him joining Ebner and Wilson at safety over Chung, and puts Butler on the team as the fifth CB.

I predict Bolden, Boyce, Williams, Wendell as the bubble players on offense. I also predict Roy Finch or Jonas Gray as the practice squad running back.

 

[patchick]

I have no serious disagreements, although I would project Smith winning a roster spot. I expect us to pick up a running back and a tight end.

I don't love cutting Smith, though I think he might slip through to the shadow roster. Who are you cutting to make room for him?

And I agree about additions at RB and TE. The last couple of roster spots are a carousel, and to me the initial 53 cut is at least as much about protecting talent as creating an ideal roster balance.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't love cutting Smith, though I think he might slip through to the shadow roster. Who are you cutting to make room for him?

And I agree about additions at RB and TE. The last couple of roster spots are a carousel, and to me the initial 53 cut is at least as much about protecting talent as creating an ideal roster balance.

I don't see any way Moore is kept over smith.

 

[patchick]

I don't see any way Moore is kept over smith.

Well, it's an empirical question, we'll see in a few weeks!

My thinking is that a draft pick like Moore is made with an eye to the long term -- you don't draft a guy out of Concordia State expecting to plug him right in to the lineup. So far all reports are that he's doing everything you'd hope for: learning and improving well, and exhibiting all of the athletic tools that made him a draftable prospect. If you consistently cut kids like that in favor of rent-a-vets like Smith, you have to keep starting over looking for depth each year and integrating new players into your system.

 

[OhExaulted1]

Karen Guregian has a new roster projection:

Project 53: Early look at who makes the cut | Boston Herald

On offense she's going with three quarterbacks, Bolden as the fourth RB in addition to Develin at FB, six receivers including Slater with Boyce being cut, and D.J. Williams on the roster as a third TE. On the OL Connolly, Stork, Kline, Fleming and Halapio are in, leaving "Wendell as the tough cut".

There are four DE, with Buchanan and Moore making the cut over Smith and Bequette, while at DT she has Vellano being cut unless the injuries to Sillnd Jones give him an opening. Beauharnais edges out Fleming, Gordon, White and J Davis as the fifth LB, though she notes the preference would be to keep one more player at the position. In the secondary she goes with ten defensive backs, with five each at safety and corner. She notes some good plays by K Davis and has him joining Ebner and Wilson at safety over Chung, and puts Butler on the team as the fifth CB.

How come everyone has Fleming making it at T AND LB?

 

[Brady6]

I have no serious disagreements, although I would project Smith winning a roster spot. I expect us to pick up a running back and a tight end.

Smith has not looked good thus far, he could not get any push last Thursday and is yet to win a 1on1 battle in practice. Maybe he is still working his way back, or maybe he is done. I would put him as a 50/50 right now to make the roster. I would not be surprised to see Belichick add a veteran end especially if a solid one gets cut during roster cuts.

 

[Brady6]

How come everyone has Fleming making it at T AND LB?

Cameron Fleming - OL
Darius Fleming - LB

 

[Brady6]

QB (3) Brady, Mallett, Garoppolo
RB (4) Ridley, Vereen, White, Bolden
WR (6) Edelman, Dobson, LaFell, Amendola, Thompkins, Tyms*
TE (3) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui, Develin
C (2) Connolly, Stork
G (4) Mankins, Cannon, Kline, Halapio
T (3) Solder, Vollmer, Fleming
DE (4) Jones, Ninkovich, Buchanan, Moore
DT (5) Wilfork, Kelly, Easley, Siliga, Jones
ILB(3) Mayo, Anderson, Beauharnais
OLB(3) Hightower, Collins, Fleming
CB (6) Revis, Browner*, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, Butler
SS (3) Wilson, Harmon, Chung
FS (2) McCourty, Thomas
ST (4) Gostkowski, Allen, Aiken, Slater

*Suspended first 4 games

 

[Fencer]

FWIW I've been leaning toward skimping on both RB & TE on the grounds that for the first cut, the "depth" talent there just isn't worth protecting:

QB (3) Brady, Mallett, Garoppolo
RB (4) Ridley, Vereen, White, Develin
WR (6) Edelman, Amendola, Dobson, LaFell, Thompkins, Boyce
TE (2) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui
C (2) Stork, Connolly
G (3) Mankins, Kline, Halapio
T (4) Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, Fleming
DE (4) Jones, Ninkovich, Buchanan, Moore
DT (5) Wilfork, Kelly, Easley, Jones, Siliga
ILB(2) Mayo, Beauharnais
OLB(4) Collins, Hightower, Fleming, Anderson
CB (5) Revis, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, Butler
S (5) McCourty, Harmon, Wilson, Chung, Ebner
ST (4) Gostkowski, Allen, Aiken, Slater

That's about as clean a projection as I've seen.

• 10 DBs plus Browner is a lot, but it's reasonable at least as long as we think the cut to make room for him comes from that group.
• I don't have strong feelings about individual backup LBs or DEs, but the numbers look right, except that ...
• ... LBs could perhaps be cut by one, in favor of a body that at a position group that plays a similar ST role (TE or RB).
• Those are surely the 5 top DTs. Each has injury recovery issues, so it's not a position at which to skimp. Indeed, Vellano is a tough cut in face of those injuries.
• OL makes sense. But Wendell is cheap enough to be a tough cut.
• TE and RB are of course skimpy, but one has to skimp somewhere, and I agree with you about the talent. I do lean to thinking a third TE sneaks on the roster.
• I don't see Mallett being cut, based on evidence so far.
• The KR position is diminishing in importance due to the increased number of touchbacks. Even so, it's an advantage for Boyce -- but he is indeed one of the shakiest guys on your 53.

 

[Fencer]

Guregian's take on TE -- with Gronk and Hooman having health issues there needs to be a third selected from among the disappointing candidates -- makes a lot of sense.

She's down on Boyce and skimps on LBs, leaving room for Bolden as well.

She has Davis over Chung at safety.

 

[mgteich]

I don't love cutting Smith, though I think he might slip through to the shadow roster. Who are you cutting to make room for him?

And I agree about additions at RB and TE. The last couple of roster spots are a carousel, and to me the initial 53 cut is at least as much about protecting talent as creating an ideal roster balance.

I think that Smith will be on someone's roster. If we don't have him on the 53, then he will need to see if some team wants him more than we do.

FREEING UP A ROSTER SPOT

First, I think that Moore is PS material, although I'm fine with him making the 53. Small school 6th rounders often end up on the Practice Squad.

Also, I don't think that we need quite so many safeties; 4 is plenty. This is especially true since we have corners who could move over to safety. I know this is a passing league, but our bottom 3 safeties aren't exactly great in coverage.

Finally, a few weeks ago folks were fine with 4 linebackers (2 are usually on the field). Now 6 is a must. I am fine with the 6 you chose, but 5 is certainly a reasonable possibility.

 

[Ivan]

I think that Smith will be on someone's roster. If we don't have him on the 53, then he will need to see if some team wants him more than we do.

FREEING UP A ROSTER SPOT

First, I think that Moore is PS material, although I'm fine with him making the 53. Small school 6th rounders often end up on the Practice Squad.

Also, I don't think that we need quite so many safeties; 4 is plenty. This is especially true since we have corners who could move over to safety. I know this is a passing league, but our bottom 3 safeties are exactly great in coverage.

Finally, a few weeks ago folks were fine with 4 linebackers (2 are usually on the field). Now 6 is a must. I am fine with the 6 you chose, but 5 is certainly a reasonable possibility.

I agree with this, Moore is a developmental project and will most likely end up on the PS. Smith would have to have a really bad camp and pre-season to not make the team.

 

[Ivan]

I don't love cutting Smith, though I think he might slip through to the shadow roster. Who are you cutting to make room for him?

And I agree about additions at RB and TE. The last couple of roster spots are a carousel, and to me the initial 53 cut is at least as much about protecting talent as creating an ideal roster balance.

it seems to me that "shadow roster" is more a phenomena of end of the roster Patriot PS players who bounce back and forth after their release, I can't recall an established veteran who has come in and allowed themself to bounce back and forth, they usually go elsewhere or retire rather than allow their career to end that way. Someone may be able to come up with examples but i can't. I think Moore was brought in as a project and they will let him go to PS unless Smith has a really bad camp and pre-season and he is essentially done. Try as i may I can't find the reports on the net that say Smith has been horrible in camp, nor can i find reports saying he is playing well. Either Moore would have to have a great camp and pre-season or Smith would have to suck, so far i see no evidence of either.


Unfortunately "shadow roster" seems to be more of a figment of Patriot fan's desires rather than a reality, it seems to have started with Ray Ventrone, who kept bouncing back and forth but I can't think of too many others who followed that path, if they are good enough to play here they are good enough to play elsewhere and usually end up there instead of clinging to hopes of playing here. If someone can demonstrate that it really exists I would be interested to see the player's who actually were "shadow roster" player's.

 

[patchick]

it seems to me that "shadow roster" is more a phenomena of end of the roster Patriot PS players who bounce back and forth after their release, I can't recall an established veteran who has come in and allowed themself to bounce back and forth, they usually go elsewhere or retire rather than allow their career to end that way.

Deion Branch was a notable recent example. I definitely believe there's a late-career shadow roster as well as an early one -- or at the least, I believe that they'll take the chance on cutting marginal vets to avoid guaranteeing their whole salary game 1.