A Complete Rebuild or 4 Key Additions and Re-sign Our Free Agents

[Stu Pidassle]

3) Sign a veteran OT and draft an OT (we could extend Brown)

Good list. QB is always most important and least predictable role. If there is doubt about the available players, using a high pick to draft the best available QB is not a good plan. To set the foundation for the future, the OL has to be the number one priority, starting with LT. The offense needs an attitude upgrade almost as much as a talent upgrade. Extending Brown is the last thing they should do. Drafting a LT with some snarl who can anchor the line for a long time will help the team move forward while searching for the franchise QB.

 

[turkeyneck]

O and ST coaching staffs and draft personnel need to be addressed before worrying about bodies on the field. I have no confidence that getting different players will fix anything if placed into the hands of Achord, Klemm and Troy Brown. Nor do I have much confidence that present FO personnel can draft good players or acquire decent players at less than ruinous contracts.

 

[turkeyneck]

The offense needs an attitude upgrade almost as much as a talent upgrade. Extending Brown is the last thing they should do. Drafting a LT with some snarl who can anchor the line for a long time will help the team move forward while searching for the franchise QB.

Absolutely. Brown has shown here and elsewhere, that absent Scar's constant monitoring, he is a slacker. There's too much of that on the OL. The talentless and the unmotivated need to go.

 

[upstater1]

We are no competing for the SB next year, but perhaps " a complete rebuild" is an excessive position.

ONE PLAN
1) Sign a veteran QB (3 year contract) who can start until our rookie is ready and be a backup after that
2) Draft a QB with our top 5 pick
3) Sign a veteran OT and draft an OT (we could extend Brown)
4) Re-sign or replace Bourne, Henry, Zeke and Onwenu.
5) Re-sign or replace Dugger, Uche and Jennings.
6) acquire a top WR
============
BTW
For this to work, we would need to do more backloading of contracts. I think that we do less of this than most teams. Every year, we marvel at how teams are able to acquire so many players when they have so little cap money.

For example, a 3 year $48M contract might cost $7M against the cap, or even less.

It's possible to do all this.

There are top WRs available in FA. Have no idea if they're willing to come to New England.

If you can't get Caleb Williams in the draft, then I wouldn't mind getting my top WR Marvin Harrison instead. Huge, fast, he is going to be a stud. QB is much more important but passing up Harrison for a guy who stands a 60% chance of becoming the next Trubisky/Mariota/Zach Wilson? I think I'd much rather go with the sure thing.

 

[UrbanCowboy]

I still haven't thrown in the towel and don't see need for a tear down. Offensive line gets healthy and gets some continuity, helps to mac to stabilize, and I think we have a decent second half. We all agree the D is good, I think. So with some investment (and luck) on offense I still think this could be a playoff team next year [ducking.]

 

[Wozzy]

Find a QB in the draft, the rest of the team is not the problem.

 

[50-yard-line]

I want so see how the OL looks at the end of the year. The growing pains are terrible, but there are glimmers there, and big, athletic players. They might find the combo to do it.

I’d also like to see the OL with a QB who isn’t pre-snap blind, cadence monotoned, and does his drop like Wilton Parmenter without the sneeze.

 

[Joey007]

I read that Uche could fetch a 3rd/4th rounder. If they haven’t tried to extend him by now they might as well get a pick for him.

Judon has to be pretty valuable.

For Uche, that could be worth it since I doubt we’ll resign him anyways.

I wonder if Bourne could fetch a 4th. Or any of our WR’s.

Trent Brown is tempting to trade off if you’re in full tank mode. I feel like he could fetch a higher pick due to the premium need at that position.

There are some guys though, like a Dugger, where I would rather not give him up for a mid rounder. I think we should resign him this offseason.

Torn on Judon. Part of me wants him around for the rebuild. In fact, the defense is really not what needs rebuilt. It just needs a piece or two, along with better health in the secondary.

 

[Thunderhead]

There is absolutely no discussion to be had here. Every single win this team notches through the end of the season will have a disastrous impact on the future. Need to end the season 1-16, that should be the ONLY goal of the organization.

 

[DaBruinz]

If Maye and Williams are gone, I’m really not opposed to pairing Jimmy G with a QB selected in the late 1st to early 2nd round. This draft class is deep deep for QB.

Go get an OT like Joe Alt or Fashanu, or a Marvin Harrison Jr. At WR with that top pick.

If the Pats don't grab a LT in the 1st round, then they will continue to suck, regardless of who they draft at WR or QB.

They ALSO need to shore up the RT position. If that means retaining Brown, so be it.

There is something going on with the Strength and Conditioning of the players. I don't remember there being this many upper body injuries (2 bicep tears, 2 labrum tears) this early in the season.

Then there is the re-injuries to Onwenu and Strange. It seems like they were rushed back and now they're hurt and not able t help the team.

From a contract stand-point, Onwenu MAY want to take a 1yr deal, but I'd rather lock him up for 4 more years at RG where he's shown he's an All-Pro when healthy.

I definitely want Dugger back. I think Jennings could be back on a mid-level deal.

I definitely want Henry, Pharoah Brown and Zeke back.

 

[Froob]

Spotrac shows:

Tyron Smith who will be 33 and has been really banged up lately
Duane Brown also banged up and pushing 40
Trent Brown
Jonah Williams who was apparently floated in trade rumors last year but playing better this year in Cincinnati so may be re-signed.
Yosh Nijman who lost his starting job in Green Bay last year and is now a backup this season

Then mostly aging journeymen and backups.

I know Trent brown annoys people (including me) but he’ll be one of the best tackles on the market. I’d try to get an extension done.

 

[203Pat]

I know Trent brown annoys people (including me) but he’ll be one of the best tackles on the market. I’d try to get an extension done.

I am just nervous to give him long term money. He seems to go on auto pilot unless there is new money on the horizon.

 

[goheels22002]

I tend to look at position groups in terms of talent, depth and cap investment, In order, the following are the position groups most in need improvement:

1) OL - invest a high draft pick at tackle and spend on two top-tier free agents at tackle and C/G - give the QB time!
2) QB - Do not extend Jones until late in year four, if at all, - big decisions here depending on draft position and available free agents - don't over-invest in aging star QB
3) DL - strengthen edge rush - injuries are a fact of life at the most violent position on the field
4) WR - keep Bourne, Thornton, Douglas - get what you can for Parker, sign a top veteran WR early in free agency
5) RB - draft a mid-round high-speed back with pass catching ability (think James White) - keep Stephenson and Elliot
6) LB - this group keeps getting better - add multi-skill LB through draft and free agency
7) Secondary - keep JC Jackson and the Jones guys, pay Dugger and Peppers
8) Special teams - young and solid with upside - stand pat

Management: find experienced GM to make personnel decisions, reduce BB role to coaching only, listen to younger player personnel guys, hand over ownership reins to Jonathan Kraft

 

[JayNM]

Not a single rebuild here dwells with the real problem, so here is my take:

- More scouts, both in NFL and College radius, comfortable with the use of modern data analytics. Complete overhaul on how we evaluate prospects and pros.

- Business Intelligence consultant to avoid overpaying for outside trash and letting premium in-house talent go

- Finance Manager to use cap space creatively

- Bring talented, young coaches with different ties/background from the norm here to compliment the staff.

- Bring decision-makers, both on-field and off-field, who can challange BB.


then we can talk about which players to get.

 

[goheels22002]

Not a single rebuild here dwells with the real problem, so here is my take:

- More scouts, both in NFL and College radius, comfortable with the use of modern data analytics. Complete overhaul on how we evaluate prospects and pros.

- Business Intelligence consultant to avoid overpaying for outside trash and letting premium in-house talent go

- Finance Manager to use cap space creatively

- Bring talented, young coaches with different ties/background from the norm here to compliment the staff.

- Bring decision-makers, both on-field and off-field, who can challange BB.


then we can talk about which players to get.

The idea of bringing in a business intelligence consultant is a good one, particularly if the person is a complete nerd and knows nothing about the NFL but has a good head for numbers and can grasp the salary cap. The Patriots do a good job of budgeting for depth within position groups, but underestimate the cost of personnel turnover on the roster, in the front office, and on the coaching staff.

In baseball, (which ought to have a hard cap like the NFL) - $32M/year for a DH?), they have a great statistic in Wins Above Replacement or WAR. It is not by any means perfect, but it does force GMs to look carefully at what happens if they dump a productive player or one with an unrealized upside. WAR stats incorporate several factors including defense and league average performance for a player in the same role.

Belichick is a WAR guy in the way he looks for players who can do lots of different things. His WAR approach is especially good with LBs and DBs who fill lots of roles on defense and special teams.

But he has blind spots - most notably WR and RB, in my opinion. For a while, there, he made some great decisions about guys like Moss, Welker, Amendola, James White, and my favorite Swiss Army Knife, Cordarelle Patterson, who is still productive with the Falcons. We've all been on threads commenting on spending money at certain positions to help an aging Tom Brady, or a developing QB like Mac Jones. I've never seen a stat like WAR for player like guy like DeAndre Hopkins, Jacobi Meyers, or Robert Woods as compared to the guys on the on roster. Maybe that kind of stat exists, but I don't see it the way we look at baseball players.

 

[The Gr8est]

I didn’t see a thread that directly addressed this, but I remember back when the Pats had a losing record early in the season and they lost their franchise QB for the season.

The Pats didn’t even go with the #2 QB, but instead inserted a 6th round draftee.

If that doesn’t tell you that your season is over then what will?

I immediately shifted my focus to what we could get in the next draft, since we were obviously heading for a disastrous season.

Well, as we all know now that “disastrous” season ended up being the Pats first SB championship, and the start of the career of the GOAT QB.

I’m not saying that we are heading for a similar result, but what I learned from that was that winning, and losing, are habits, and the losing that results in you getting that top pick comes with a price, and that is the losing mentality that can be hard to shake.

Look at the Rats, they are the epitome of a loser franchise, always looking for their savior in the draft.

The Pats are best served by winning as much as they can.

They were acknowledged winners not so long ago. It should be a shorter climb back to that level.

 

[venecol]

Two of the 4 key additions needs to be: GM and HC.

 

[Toofy]

Resign the following in priority

P1
1. Onwenu
2. Kendrick Bourne
3. Jennings

P2
3. T brown - heavy incentives and weight goals ( 2 year only with out after an year )
4. Henry - if dollars are okay ( 6-8 million AAV )

P3

1. Dugger - if dollars are right .( 6 - 9 )
2. Gesicki - AAV lesser than 3-5 million
3. JC Jackson ( if wperfoems like Cb2 and AAV ~ 5- 8 with heavy incentives)

 

[JayNM]

The idea of bringing in a business intelligence consultant is a good one, particularly if the person is a complete nerd and knows nothing about the NFL but has a good head for numbers and can grasp the salary cap. The Patriots do a good job of budgeting for depth within position groups, but underestimate the cost of personnel turnover on the roster, in the front office, and on the coaching staff.

In baseball, (which ought to have a hard cap like the NFL) - $32M/year for a DH?), they have a great statistic in Wins Above Replacement or WAR. It is not by any means perfect, but it does force GMs to look carefully at what happens if they dump a productive player or one with an unrealized upside. WAR stats incorporate several factors including defense and league average performance for a player in the same role.

Belichick is a WAR guy in the way he looks for players who can do lots of different things. His WAR approach is especially good with LBs and DBs who fill lots of roles on defense and special teams.

But he has blind spots - most notably WR and RB, in my opinion. For a while, there, he made some great decisions about guys like Moss, Welker, Amendola, James White, and my favorite Swiss Army Knife, Cordarelle Patterson, who is still productive with the Falcons. We've all been on threads commenting on spending money at certain positions to help an aging Tom Brady, or a developing QB like Mac Jones. I've never seen a stat like WAR for player like guy like DeAndre Hopkins, Jacobi Meyers, or Robert Woods as compared to the guys on the on roster. Maybe that kind of stat exists, but I don't see it the way we look at baseball players.

I think it's romantic to think a guy without Football knowledge can come in and re-work the game. Baseball is great for statistics because as far as human sports go, it's the one with the least amout of moving parts, in a way. How to reduce what 22 football players are doing in the field at the same time to numbers, given how wildly different each job/position is?

In any case, you absolutely get the idea. As we are no longer the golden standard, there should be some one who constantly analyzes the NFL landscape for gaps and strenghts methodically, inside and out, and act accordingly.

Few individual acts that could have been corrected with good macro knowledge of the NFL and "pro-realm", so no college/draft stuff:
- Meyers should not have been let go if his market was only at 11M.
- Thuney/Mason should not have been let go given how few good lineman are out there.
- Too early with the payouts for TEs 3 years ago - shows that he is aware of trends globally, but he missed the optimum time (and bet in the wrong "assets" - especially Jonnu)

Regardless, I think it's a bit crazy that we have so many discussions about which players to sign, when we can't rely on the guys who make these decisions

 

[Spiral]

The talent level on this team is below average. Having said that, I think they had a pretty good draft this year. This team has lots of holes, and they filled some of them. It was somewhat disappointing that most of the holes they filled were on defense, but this isn't a one or two-year process. Realistically, they're a year away from being a year away. Any qualified GM candidate would look at this team and tell the Krafts that he would want three years.