The way you criticize his use of 2-pt conversion stats, is pretty funny since you then pull up 4th down conversion stats, ignoring that the vast majority of these were 4th and less than a yard.
I don't know if I'd say it is funny
They're just completely different situations. A 2-point conversion is attempted in the end zone and the defense only has to cover 12 yards. While most 4th down attempts are short yardage as well, the defense must cover more than just 12 yards from the line of scrimmage.
Saying we should use 2-point conversion stats to calculate the odds of a 4th down conversion seems stupid when we can just look at 4th down conversion numbers.
And even the 4th down conversion figures in the formula don't account for the Pats general success on 4th down (not counting this season), so I'd argue that their odds of winning should be higher. Usually bad teams are forced to go for it on 4th down due to game circumstances. KC, Washington, and TB are the top 3 teams in 4th down attempts so far this season, which tends to pull the overall conversion rates down.
I hated the actual play called, but they got what they wanted, they completed the pass they intended, and they got screwed on the spot (which is not surprising, and part of throwing such a short pass). But it was one play. No single play wins or loses a game.
I'd also add that conventional logic would also have meant taking a knee against the Rams in the Super Bowl and hoping for a lucky coin flip. Instead, broadcasters (and many fans) were in shock that Brady kept throwing the ball (all the way to victory).
I will say that I wouldn't have argued if BB had punted in that situation. And if it had been me, I definitely would have punted because I wouldn't have had the guts to attempt it.
But I'm tired of people claiming it was the stupidest decision ever or that BB has lost it or that it was an insane thing to do. Bottom line is some people loved the call (I did), and some people hated it, and there's not much we can say to convince one another.
It was a close call, and a tough call, and he went one way and he didn't get it. Even the best QBs throw picks. Even the best DBs get burned. Even the best LBs miss a tackle. And even the best coaches make calls that don't go their way. But it wasn't as crazy a decision as some may think.