- Joined
- Dec 21, 2004
- Messages
- 59
- Reaction score
- 29
I wrote a program (in R) to answer hambone1818's question:
TB.runs <- function(m)
{
sapply(1:m, function(o)
{
y <- rle(rbinom(4694, 1, .018))
ifelse(max(y$lengths[y$values==0])>= 319, 1, 0)
})
}
mean(TB.runs(50000))
Under all the assumptions established (i.e., 1.8% interception rate, independence, etc.), there is approximately a 22.13% chance that Tom Brady will throw 319+ interceptionless passes in a row over the course of a 4,694 pass career.
TB.runs <- function(m)
{
sapply(1:m, function(o)
{
y <- rle(rbinom(4694, 1, .018))
ifelse(max(y$lengths[y$values==0])>= 319, 1, 0)
})
}
mean(TB.runs(50000))
Under all the assumptions established (i.e., 1.8% interception rate, independence, etc.), there is approximately a 22.13% chance that Tom Brady will throw 319+ interceptionless passes in a row over the course of a 4,694 pass career.