Is it even possible for this team to get HFA any longer?

[Triumph]

And i wish you well in eulogy land if you cant wait to see how things play out and come out to say the same things after every loss.

Be sure to remind that its Christmas and how I am not a fan.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Rams defense is ranked 16th and KC is 27th and KC is 32nd vs the run. Gurley is going rip KC a new one. The Rams pass rush looked pretty damn good yesterday smothering Wilson who is very mobile.

2018 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS | Football Outsiders

If you didn’t know already, I don’t care for statistical rankings. I see Aaron Donald as the only guy to account for. If he doesn’t show up, they are screwed. Other than that, it’s very easy to move the ball on them. The Rams look like one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

And the Seahawks still had a chance to win that game.

 

[Hyped]

Comments:

1.) Let's assume that the Patriots will LIKELY finish ahead of the AFC South even if they finish 11-5. Houston still has @WAS, TEN, @PHI, and JAC remaining on their schedule. Tennessee still has @HOU, JAC, and WAS on their schedule. Also, both still have to play the Colts who now have a 100% Andrew Luck which gives them a puncher's chance in every game. The margin of error for the AFC South is thin and the Patriots have a head-to-head tie breaker over the Texans. In addition, the Patriots still only have 2 conference losses (The Titans have 4 losses).

2.) Let's assume that the Steelers will win the AFC North with the Bengals imploding on defense (Teryl Austin was fired today, BTW) and the Ravens under .500 at this point.

3.) ONE of the Chiefs/Chargers will win the AFC West.

4.) So, our competition for HFA is really only between us and 3 other teams (K.C., L.A., and Pitt). Here are the remaining schedules for each of us:

K.C.: @LAR BYE @Oak Bal LAC @Sea Oak
L.A.: Den Ari @Pit Cin @KC Bal @Den
Pit: @Jac @Den LAC @Oak NE @NO Cin
N.E.: BYE @NYJ MIN @Mia @PIT, BUF, NYJ

I have BOLDED games in which I think a loss is somewhat possible.

5.) I don't think the Chiefs will drop more than 2 games rest of the way and finish 13-3...probably 14-2.

6.) The Chargers would have to win out to grab the AFC West outright @ 14-2. I think 13-3 would do it for the Chargers if they beat K.C. at least.

7.) The Steelers vs. Pats game will likely decide the 2nd BYE, IMO.

8.) So, if the Patriots RUN THE TABLE to 13-3...they have a real good chance at HFA. If they finish 12-4...I think the 2nd BYE is in the cards. If they finish 11-5....only a home game on wild card weekend...but a 2nd BYE is still possible if the Pats beat the Steelers and Pittsburgh loses one more conference game (@JAC or LAC....and @DEN is always tough this time of the year).

9.) I just want the 2nd BYE...don't even care about playing on the road for the AFC title game. Yes, it's harder to win on the road...but we usually lose because the other team is better anyway!

 

[captain stone]

 

[varjao]

Lets just pause for a moment and understand that a 12-4 is a excellent record, a 11-5 is a very good record.

It's just happens that this year there is a 15-1, 14-2 team in the division. So the Pats not getting the 1st seed is not the end of the world.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

38% chance of HFA here:
AFC Playoff Picture

36.7% chance here:
DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT | Football Outsiders

neither number seems to be near zero

 

[Casanova Frankenstein]

 

[lillloyd]

It's always weirdly reassuring to go onto another fans' message board, and realize that yes, other fan bases also can go off the deep end after a loss. There's just a lot of recency bias going on right now (understandable I suppose on a Monday after a loss).

I'm not sold on the idea that KC can't drop a couple of games. Road tilts against the Rams and Seattle won't be easy. Neither will the SD game. And as spectacularly as he's played, Mahomes is still a first-year starter, and we don't know how he - or Reid and KC in general - will react as teams start to accumulate more tape on him, and he's playing in November and December for the first time.

But while I suppose it's *possible* that Brady's flutterballs Sunday are indicative of an actual decline (no, wait, really this time!), and that Gronk's inability to 'get right' will drag down the offense, if I were to actually bet, I'd still bet that TB and BB pull things together and stack enough wins to grab HFA. We have over a decades' worth of data to support the idea that NE is much more likely to be soaring than stumbling, by the end of the regular season.

Finally, if you 'only' get the #2 seed, I have no doubt that you guys could win up there. Arrowhead's tough, but you're still talking about a first-year starter at QB, outdoors in the January cold, with *Andy Reid* coaching.

 

[JPPT1974]

Yeah as really the team was not all there. And that the team just did not show up. Hope they will after the bye week.

 

[brdmaverick]

The only thing that has ever mattered to BB is to cinch the division. From there, it's a whole new ballgame.

I don't think we should downplay the benefits of a bye week.

That week of rest while others are fighting for their lives can not be overstated.

The Brady/BB combo is 8/12 in reaching the Super Bowl with having a bye, but 0/3 when they don't.

 

[supafly]

I don't think we should downplay the benefits of a bye week.

That week of rest while others are fighting for their lives can not be overstated.

The Brady/BB combo is 8/12 in reaching the Super Bowl with having a bye, but 0/3 when they don't.

Getting a bye week is huge. It gives them two weeks to rest and prepare for one home game in order to get to the AFCCG, where anything can happen.

Anyone telling themselves differently has not been paying attention. To take it one step further, who here thinks this looks like a championship caliber team with road losses to squads like DET, JAX, and TEN? Lol. They can’t even beat the crappy teams on the road, let alone the best the AFC has to offer.

 

[Hyped]

It's always weirdly reassuring to go onto another fans' message board, and realize that yes, other fan bases also can go off the deep end after a loss. There's just a lot of recency bias going on right now (understandable I suppose on a Monday after a loss).

Yeah, LOL....we all go over the deep end just the same as other fanbases.

But while I suppose it's *possible* that Brady's flutterballs Sunday are indicative of an actual decline (no, wait, really this time!), and that Gronk's inability to 'get right' will drag down the offense, if I were to actually bet, I'd still bet that TB and BB pull things together and stack enough wins to grab HFA. We have over a decades' worth of data to support the idea that NE is much more likely to be soaring than stumbling, by the end of the regular season.

But this is a 24 point loss IN NOVEMBER.....in past years we would drop games in Nov/Dec, but usually by one score....we got blown out yesterday and were unable to rally after pulling within 17-10. That part is different though....

 

[libra957]

I am personally disappointed by how uncompetitive we are on the road. The usual road disaster at Miami still loom. We don't have the mental toughness we used to. Ideally, we want the Chiefs to lose to the Rams, Seattle, and Chargers. Unlikely that they drop all of them.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Before the season started I picked 10-6. I had them losing to JAX, GB, two of PIT/MIN/KC, @Mia (NE almost never sweeps the division) and another brain fart loss in the division. Now that we’re at the bye I am sticking with 10-6. While I absolutely hope to be proven wrong, I just don’t have the faith right now. Though I guess we’ll see how the team looks after the bye and whether or not they can solve their problems.

I also thought 10-6, and almost every other year I say to take the over, which is 12+. They need to have a 2010-esque draft in 2019 - or hope some of these injured youngsters make some enormous leaps - to get back to their previous level. That’s not an easy task. Otherwise they’re just another team with a tight budget and an aging group of core players. Well, to go along with Brady/Belichick, obviously.

 

[anditsgood]

Not me. I picked them to go 11-5 and that could be right on the mark. If not I hope it's better.

imagine going 11-5 and playing the Rams again, in the supe, Brady to finish where he started

 

[mosi]

The Pats will win out and get the 2nd seed. KC, like it does EVERY year, will get knocked out (an upset) in their first playoff game, leaving the Pats to host the Chargers in the AFC GC. Book it dano.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Kc is 0-6 at arrowhead in the playoffs since 1995. They have a rookie qb, and andy reid. While our team is flawed and it wont be easy by any means, its crazy to think of winning at kc as some kind of impossible mission.

 

[Triumph]

If you didn’t know already, I don’t care for statistical rankings. I see Aaron Donald as the only guy to account for. If he doesn’t show up, they are screwed. Other than that, it’s very easy to move the ball on them. The Rams look like one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

And the Seahawks still had a chance to win that game.

Makes no sense.

Pats gave up 236 points and Rams have given up 231. No stats just simple facts. Yep, Seahawks had a chance to win. They are pretty good and there is lots of scoring this season across the league.

 

[ashley]

After yesterday’s game nobody here should even be thinking about the number 1 seed. Let’s just concentrate on one game at a time and hope we start playing better.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Hate to say it but have a sneaking suspicion our worst nightmare is staring to play out: Steelers winning the AFC if not the whole thing. I’ve been posting for two years now that Le’Veon Bell makes the offense much worse (not because he isn’t good, but because of the way they overuse him to the detriment of a powerful passing offense.). I knew his holdout would ultimately make the Steelers a better team.

They’re also building some kind of bullsh1t identity around it, as if they aren’t all turds there.

Posted several times the Steelers average 7 less ppg with Bell playing. They’ve been forced into the modern passing game and are now scary.