Kirk Herbstreit on Mac Jones

[crawhammer]

Well, the Steelers had the 26th best scoring offense in the league. Proof that Pickett played far better than his numbers. Pickett didn't have a good completion percentage (24th best in the league), had seven games where he didn't throw for a single TD (granted one he only threw on pass), didn't throw for more than one TD in a game, and had more INTs than TDs. How did he play far better. Even his own teammates have pointed out him for playing like crap for 3 1/2 quarters in a game and then having one good drive at the end of the game.

You're giving me numbers, which I can appreciate because I'm a stats guy, but I already acknowledged his numbers look bad. He passed the eyeball test for me, looked the part, was poised under some pressure moments. I think he'll be pretty good in 2023 and he'll probably be a respectable franchise quarterback (but I'm not saying that's guaranteed).

 

[Triumph]

Justin Fields may be the worst passer of any starting QB in the league. He is awful as a passer. He can’t hit the side of a barn from two feet away. He is technically a dual threat because he is a good running QB and a great athlete and he can kinda pass a football if you want to call it that. He had a couple of really good games last year that has severely overrated him.

He could still turn it around and become a decent passer. But no defense is afraid of him throwing the ball.

Delusional Bears fans are blaming the Bears Offensive Coordinator.

 

[PatsWSB47]

It is an overrated stat. From my understanding it is calculated if an offense scores last in the fourth quarter in a game settled by a touchdown or less. It doesn't factor in how well the QB played all game as another poster pointed out with Tim Tebow. It doesn't factor in the opposing defense.

Some game winning drives are feats of teriffic QB play. Others is just a case of one team scoring last in a tight game.

It isn't nothing though. To me what separates the men from the boys is getting it done when the game is on the line ; making that play. Mat Ryan comes to mind in his Superbowl. Tremendous quarterback rating throughout. No game winning drive at the end. He couldn't make that play. Over time some quarterbacks show that when they are in a position to win a game at the end they do it more than the other ones do under similar circumstances.

 

[Tunescribe]

LOL! You keeping saying things that make absolutely no sense.

1. "I'm willfully ignorance"... because I said Patricia was a highly predictable disaster.
2. "I'm a fair-weather fan"... when I pay attention to everything, good, bad, or neutral.
3. "I have my head in the sand"... when I'm doing exactly the opposite and recognizing the problem.

Nice job.

Beating dead horses to compost changes nothing. Attempting to recast arguments vs. what they were originally, changes nothing.

1). Your willful ignorance involves demonstrably not caring to understand how/why things work on a professional football team. For instance, that overhauling an offensive system mid-season is a nonstarter and why only a change of that magnitude would've significantly improved the Patriots' offensive fortunes last year. You also habitually offer personally biased conjecture as established fact, which is both ignorant AND dishonest.

2). Because you claim to "pay attention to everything" doesn't preclude fair-weather fandom. We already addressed this (post No. 52).

3). No. You are blinded by hatred for Bill Belichick, disdain for Robert Kraft and dismissal of Mac Jones.

 

[crawhammer]

1). Your willful ignorance involves demonstrably not caring to understand how/why things work on a professional football team.

This is such a wastebasket statement. Meaningless drivel so you can avoid an actual debate. Seriously you keep replying to my posts without saying anything about the topics.

For instance, that overhauling an offensive system mid-season is a nonstarter and why only a change of that magnitude would've significantly improved the Patriots' offensive fortunes last season. You also habitually offer personally biased conjecture as established fact, which is both ignorant AND dishonest.

What? The offense stunk and there was open suggestion of Belichick getting more involved to straighten things out. It was reported, posted, talked about... correct? Clarify your understanding of this... was it suggested or not? Did it happen or not?... from your understanding, I'm curious.

My feeling is Belichick has a degree of involvement in everything, it's how he's wired. Probably after so many successful offensive seasons with Brady (and whichever OC because it hardly mattered given the annual results), Belichick backed off the offense somewhat, especially considering it was the stronger unit from 2007 through 2018.

I think Belichick believed Patricia would be successful under his guidance and there likely was a highly collaborative effort throughout. I'm sure adjustments were made (by Patricia and Belichick), but they finished the season 2-5 (with the 2 wins against backup QBs), so it just didn't work at all (which IS established fact).

2). Because you claim to "pay attention to everything" doesn't preclude fair-weather fandom. We already addressed this (post No. 52).

Fair-weather fan means I only pay attention to the team when things are going well. You can't change the definition to fit your argument.

3). No. You are blinded by hatred for Bill Belichick, disdain for Robert Kraft and dismissal of Mac Jones.

Don't hate Belichick, I think he's overrated, I've stated the case multiple times. He's still an all time great head coach, you can't dispute the résumé, but he's not the clear GOAT (although he may still establish that), too many glaring mistakes at this point. The argument for GOAT GM is even tougher to make and he's (undeniably imo) a mediocre drafter.

Distain for Kraft? How's that?

Dismissal of Mac as a clear franchise quarterback? Yes. But given the exact right set of circumstances - improved coaching, improved supporting cast, and a complimentary top 5 defense - then I could see him being good enough. I don't think he's a bum.

 

[Kasmir]

I'll take your word for it. But is 28th all time in this particular stat bad?

Do you think Brady is in the same category as Kyler Murray and Andy Dalton? The stat doesn't measure anything useful.

Umm buddy, Mac is the quarterback for a mediocre team.

In 2021 going into their bye in week 14th the Pats were the #1 team in the league in DVOA and Mac was a top 5 QB by EPA and DVOA measures.
But Mac didn't have any GWD because they were always ahead but you want to hold his success against him.

GWD is a useless stat and you are only harping on it because it makes Mac look bad.

 

[Kasmir]

This is such a wastebasket statement...the argument for GOAT GM is even tougher to make and he's (undeniably imo) a mediocre drafter.

So who's a better drafter and why? I know you make a living here picking cherries, but every GM makes mistakes, horrible mistakes like missing on Tom Brady which everyone did including BB. How do you know how Belichick rates as a drafter without presenting a metric for comparisons?

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

You're bound to improve ok once you expand the playbook from run left, run right to throw the ball and spread the wrs out

 

[Rob0729]

It isn't nothing though. To me what separates the men from the boys is getting it done when the game is on the line ; making that play. Mat Ryan comes to mind in his Superbowl. Tremendous quarterback rating throughout. No game winning drive at the end. He couldn't make that play. Over time some quarterbacks show that when they are in a position to win a game at the end they do it more than the other ones do under similar circumstances.

Being able to lead a scoring drive under pressure with all the chips on the table isn’t nothing, but the stat doesn’t measure that. It only measures when a team who is down by a TD or less in the fourth and scores last score. In many of those cases, it is just dumb luck or mistakes by the opposing defense or just the law of averages. Many times it is the better team that sleep walks through the game that wakes up towards the end of the game and starts trying.

 

[PatsWSB47]

Being able to lead a scoring drive under pressure with all the chips on the table isn’t nothing, but the stat doesn’t measure that. It only measures when a team who is down by a TD or less in the fourth and scores last score. In many of those cases, it is just dumb luck or mistakes by the opposing defense or just the law of averages. Many times it is the better team that sleep walks through the game that wakes up towards the end of the game and starts trying.

Agreed but the guy(s) that wake up consistently the most are special.

 

[Rob0729]

Delusional Bears fans are blaming the Bears Offensive Coordinator.

The Bears aren’t the most well coached team, but Fields hasn‘t been a good passer either of his first two years and he was a boom or bust player coming out of college because he does get rattled by the rush which he didn’t face much in college and he was in a system where the receivers did a lot of the work.

 

[Rob0729]

Agreed but the guy(s) that wake up the consistently the most are special.

We are talking three games (really two) for Pickett. And if not for his defense holding the opponent to 10 and 13 points, he wouldn‘t have been in a position to wake up.

I’m sorry. The Steelers scored 18.1 PPG last year. If you are scoring that few of points, you better have one of the league’s top defenses or your QB will never be in position to wake up at the end of the game.

As someone pointed out, Tim Tebow was a guy who could wake up at the end of the games to mount a game winning drive. He was just not good enough to score enough points to put a team in a position to mount a game winning drive at the end of the game.

If Pickett cannot get the Steelers to score something like at least 21 PPG, it doesn’t matter what he can do at end of games.

 

[Triumph]

The Bears aren’t the most well coached team, but Fields hasn‘t been a good passer either of his first two years and he was a boom or bust player coming out of college because he does get rattled by the rush which he didn’t face much in college and he was in a system where the receivers did a lot of the work.

Sounds just like your boy Mac

 

[Rob0729]

Sounds just like your boy Mac

Not really. Jones was able to manipulate the pocket his rookie year and did the same in college.

 

[Triumph]

Not really. Jones was able to manipulate the pocket his rookie year and did the same in college.

If every QB that made it to the NFL played like college Pro Franchise QBs would be a dime a dozen.

 

[Rob0729]

If every QB that made it to the NFL played like college Pro Franchise QBs would be a dime a dozen.

Yes, And again, Fields struggled with the slightest sign of pressure his entire NFL career.

Jones struggled for part of last year. He was able to avoid a lot of the pressure in his rookie season and season the stretch last year. Well at least when the tackles actually blocked and not just let the defenders run right by them.

I don’t get your point except for you trying to bash Jones based on your biases and feelings and not the facts.

The fact is Jones isn’t Brady in being able to manipulate the pocket, but he at least showed signs of having above average to great pocket presence.

 

[catent]

I do worry about Jones’ maturity and mental fortitude, especially under adversity. That can improve with time/age, though, and can develop through setting/culture, too.

We’ll see if more time/age, accrued experience, and/or BOB’s coaching helps improve those aspects of Jones as a player.

 

[Marko]

Herbstreit watched a lot of Mac in College, so he has confidence in him.

I agree that Mac was wrongly scapegoated in 2022 , but these analysts don't seem to catch themselves when they say he had "no offensive weapons last year", yet the virtually the same cast has returned aside from Juju and Gesicki. And the debate has been how much of an upgrade he is over Myers. Now if Hopkins signs and has gas in the tank, that will change things.

Disagree that O'Brien is "as good as offensive mind as there is". He had mediocre offenses in Houston including the time he had Watson. However, at worst he should provide some structure/stability to the offense.

OL is a big concern and will make this offense extremely limited if they can't figure out the T situation.

As bad as the play calling was last year, the offensive line was worse.

 

[Sfpat]

Agreed but the guy(s) that wake up consistently the most are special.

You can lead the league in GWDs and still finish last or near last. Derrick Carr and Matthew Stafford are near the top of the GWD list, with most of Stafford's coming while he played for the Lions. Still resulted in mediocre results for their teams.

 

[Rob0729]

As bad as the play calling was last year, the offensive line was worse.

The tackles weren't even speed bumbs at times last year, but the interior of the line wasn't awful. Trent Brown clearly quit on the team.

The good news is a lot of it was that Andrews and Jones weren't allowed to call line blocking adjustments at the line (which is insane). I cannot see O'Brien doing the same thing. But that is the difference between a real OC and a guy who was in way, way over his head at OC.