Matt Williamson: Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Williams

[Clonamery]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

......those who are attempting TO DREAM ABOUT possible cap moves.

Fixed it for you. Reality bites but some people prefer it.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

^^^ Not sure what AAV is but google told me: Dwight Freeny's original contract 6 years and 72 million = 12 DeMarcus Ware got 6 years and 78 million = 13 Terrell Suggs got 6 years and 62.5 million = 10.4 Peppers got 6 years and 84 million = 14 Jared Allen got 6 years and 73.3 million = 12.2 So why would Williams get 16. Seems the going rate for a top notch defensive edge player is 6 years and 12 or 13 per. I'd offer Williams 6 years 70 million. I don't see him turning that down to take 6 / 80 from Tampa. He already made 54 mil on his last contract.

Freeney's deal is 5 years old. So is Allen's. Ware got $40M guaranteed and $45M in the first 3, the QB money he was aiming for. He wasn't a FA and had a year left on his rookie deal. Suggs got $38.5M guaranteed. Peppers is at $14M on a two year old deal that guaranteed him $42M and he was 30 when he signed it. Seymour got 2 years guaranteed at $30M on the wrong side of 30.

Pat Kirwin opined about an initially cap friendly deal Mario might go for. Cap hits of $6M, $8M and $12M in the first three, which of course means cap hits of $16M+ in the last 3. That deal would be a 6 year $90M deal, so AAV $15M. The cap hits would be predicated on giving him a $30M signing bonus. So substantial dead cap if you have to bail before the final season. No player here has never gotten close to that. Including Brady. His current deal included a $16M signing bonus and a $12M option bonus due in year 2. Mankins got $20M on his 6 year $52M over market deal I still don't get. Wilfork got $18M on his 5 year $40M deal. Mayo got $18M on his 5/$50M extension. Mario missed most of last season. If that happened here after giving him $30M up front...good luck mounting any pass rush or stopping the run... And good luck retaining the TE's on market deals. Cause we already have 4 guys on top three market deals not including Mario... Pioli used to have a mantra, you can only have so many of those guys before you can't build a quality roster.

Fans here always want to believe that players would rather win and we are their only legit option. Mario says he wants to remain in Houston and his agent says he would not have been upset had they tagged him because it would just represent the means to an end as in long term deal. They've been working on one for a while. If he'd take <$12M on a long term deal they'd have gotten one done already.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

The Pats have right around $20M in cap room right now. That's without $1.5M that's saved by either releasing or restructuring Ochocinco, $3.5M by releasing Light (or him retiring), and over $7M that they could gain by restructuring Brady. So there's $11M right there, leaving them with right around $20M in cap room even after tagging Welker and tendering both Hoyer and Love..

Restructuring Brady is mortgaging the future to pay for the present. Like the Steelers are having to do now to dig out of cap heck. Or like what the JETS do annually to win now then never do.

 

[Ring 6]

^^^ Not sure what AAV is but google told me:

Dwight Freeny's original contract 6 years and 72 million = 12
DeMarcus Ware got 6 years and 78 million = 13
Terrell Suggs got 6 years and 62.5 million = 10.4
Peppers got 6 years and 84 million = 14
Jared Allen got 6 years and 73.3 million = 12.2

So why would Williams get 16. Seems the going rate for a top notch defensive edge player is 6 years and 12 or 13 per. I'd offer Williams 6 years 70 million. I don't see him turning that down to take 6 / 80 from Tampa. He already made 54 mil on his last contract.

Why would he start lower than what Peppers got 2 years ago?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Cap rollovers are voluntary not mandatory. The Bucs can finish this year with $40-50 million in cap space in 2012 and opt to not roll it over into 2013 and allow that cap space to disappear into thin air. That is what I am guessing they will do.

Not saying the Pats are going to or even should pursue Williams. I am just saying the Bucs are very unlikely going to pursue him.

If the Bucs are active in free agency, they are more likely to sign second and third tier free agents where they won't have to shell out as much real dollars up front. Many small market teams go this route and over pay these players because they represent a much smaller real dollar initial investment while eating cap space.

The Bucs are almost $30M under the cap before even counting their rollover money. And they are just one of about 5 teams that far under before rollover - like Cincy - and there are some other teams with double digit rollover room who will spend, like Seattle.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Why would he start lower than what Peppers got 2 years ago?

For the same reason Peppers was going to...patsfans want him to and because who wouldn't want to play for Belichick at a discount (aside from our own FA who won't...).

 

[patsfaninpa]

If Mario Williams were truly an impact player. Wouldn't his team have made the playoffs once in his first five years? In fact, one of the reasons they didn't is that they didn't have a dominant defense. Signing him does not eliminate all of your problems. It just eliminates your ability to sign other players. Very good player. Not worth what a qb makes.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

Fans here always want to believe that players would rather win and we are their only legit option. Mario says he wants to remain in Houston and his agent says he would not have been upset had they tagged him because it would just represent the means to an end as in long term deal. They've been working on one for a while. If he'd take <$12M on a long term deal they'd have gotten one done already.

The Texans aren't acting like a team that is all that interested in keeping Williams. There have been multiple reports that they're not negotiating at any level. It wouldn't make sense, even to sign him at 8 mil a year when you have other holes in the roster and three guys who can, and did all season, pick up the slack. Don't get me wrong. None of JJ Watt, Brooks Reed, or Connor Barwin are as good or versatile as Williams, but even on a cheap deal, it would cost them more to pay one Mario Williams than those three combined.

We don't have the luxury of passing up that kind of front 7 player because of drafting well to replace.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

If Mario Williams were truly an impact player. Wouldn't his team have made the playoffs once in his first five years? In fact, one of the reasons they didn't is that they didn't have a dominant defense. Signing him does not eliminate all of your problems. It just eliminates your ability to sign other players. Very good player. Not worth what a qb makes.

They didn't have a dominant defense because, for the first couple years, Mario Williams was the only respectable player on defense. The Texans had spent the handful of years before then in their existence trying to get Carr weapons to justify picking him. Having a monster on the edge laid the groundwork to build the incredible D they have today.

Andre Johnson was on the other side of the ball while they didn't make the playoffs, and their offense was David Caruso bad until the late 2000s. Is he not an impact player?

 

[Off The Grid]

We don't have the luxury of passing up that kind of front 7 player because of drafting well to replace.

Sad but true.

 

[Off The Grid]

Heh...

Back on January 5th, when it became clear to those of us who can add that Planet Hoosten was in Cap Trouble and were probably going to HAVE to cut Super Mario loose ~ thanks to the discussions FIRST brought up by Brother Jay and others in the Draft Forum ~ I first broached the tantalizing subject, here in the Gen Pop:

"Is it POSSIBLE that Planet Hoosten might be obliged to let him go...for NOTHING???"

Meaning: "Hell, YEAH, they're gonna have to!!" :rocker:

That idea was disparaged as "fantasy crap".

And now...He's a Free Agent...imagine THAT!!

Even so, I'm not completely convinced that our pursuing him would be the right move. As I stated in my OP, I would almost NEVER pursue High Ticket Free Agents.

Super Mario would be a Once In A Decade thing, from my perspective...

And even so, he may very well price himself out of it: I've always said that the Draft is the best way to build your club, and that High Ticket Free Agency is a quick ticket to Cap Asphyxiation and DISASTER. I was 100% for it at first, but public perception of what it might take to land him has elevated a great deal over the last 2 months...

But if the price is right...:rocker:

 

[UK_Pat37]

Freeney's deal is 5 years old. So is Allen's. Ware got $40M guaranteed and $45M in the first 3, the QB money he was aiming for. He wasn't a FA and had a year left on his rookie deal. Suggs got $38.5M guaranteed. Peppers is at $14M on a two year old deal that guaranteed him $42M and he was 30 when he signed it. Seymour got 2 years guaranteed at $30M on the wrong side of 30.

Pat Kirwin opined about an initially cap friendly deal Mario might go for. Cap hits of $6M, $8M and $12M in the first three, which of course means cap hits of $16M+ in the last 3. That deal would be a 6 year $90M deal, so AAV $15M. The cap hits would be predicated on giving him a $30M signing bonus. So substantial dead cap if you have to bail before the final season. No player here has never gotten close to that. Including Brady. His current deal included a $16M signing bonus and a $12M option bonus due in year 2. Mankins got $20M on his 6 year $52M over market deal I still don't get. Wilfork got $18M on his 5 year $40M deal. Mayo got $18M on his 5/$50M extension. Mario missed most of last season. If that happened here after giving him $30M up front...good luck mounting any pass rush or stopping the run... And good luck retaining the TE's on market deals. Cause we already have 4 guys on top three market deals not including Mario... Pioli used to have a mantra, you can only have so many of those guys before you can't build a quality roster.

Fans here always want to believe that players would rather win and we are their only legit option. Mario says he wants to remain in Houston and his agent says he would not have been upset had they tagged him because it would just represent the means to an end as in long term deal. They've been working on one for a while. If he'd take <$12M on a long term deal they'd have gotten one done already.

They've been working on one for a while? Far from it. They were tight on the cap as it was and have been working to restructure deals just to make sure Foster didn't hit the market. Foster was their guy they were working with for a while...when Williams went down production on defense never dwindled and it proved to them they could move on. General consensus for a while now is that the Texans had already cut their losses...rumours were they would only offer a home town discount to him if anything.

However, saying that unless we get a massively back-loaded deal with gradual cap rises up until 2015 I can't see us being able to do it. It's definitely doable that way but he has to be able to accept that. I expect we will inquire as to what he wants and we'll propose something which works for us. It's worth noting as a 1st overall pick in the pre-rookie cap era that he's already been paid....he could be pretty patient in building his money up.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

I'd almost as happy with Red Bryant and a pass rusher or two in the draft though. A big hoss who has the versatility of being solid on special teams. Although with the way the league is going, I'd prefer Williams and the dynamic he brings on passing downs.

 

[UK_Pat37]

Also another guy for me who I wasn't high on until the combine was Nick Perry. He was projected to come in around 250 lbs and was talked up as an OLB convert who would really struggle to do so.

He came in at the combine and added 20 lbs of pure muscle to weigh in at 271 lbs and didn't drop off in speed at all. I like this guy and think he can be a disruptive 3-down player in the NFL.

However, don't be too fooled by the drat hype; the DE class is overrated in the draft and talked up way too much. Some extremely raw prospects. Same at DT.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Cap rollovers are voluntary not mandatory. The Bucs can finish this year with $40-50 million in cap space in 2012 and opt to not roll it over into 2013 and allow that cap space to disappear into thin air. That is what I am guessing they will do.

Agreed, because an 89% salary cap floor per team kicks in next year. If they have all that cap room, they'll be forced to use it.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Restructuring Brady is mortgaging the future to pay for the present. Like the Steelers are having to do now to dig out of cap heck. Or like what the JETS do annually to win now then never do.

Pats have done it almost every year, though.

The key thing is that they don't go overboard with it.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Feel free to provide the rest of us with some of your own financial calculations rather than *****ing about those who are attempting explanation for possible cap moves.

If the salary cap is $121 million for the 2012 NFL Season, the New England Patriots will have roughly $25.067 million to spend on free agency and the 2012 NFL draft.

Numbers in million

$121.0 + $6.667 - $102.6 = $25.067

$5.000 2012 NFL Draft Picks
$9.400 Wes Welker Franchise Tag
$1.927 Brian Hoyer (second round tender - RFA)
$1.925 Deion Branch (minimum player salary plus $1.000 million)
$0.925 Andre Carter (minimum player salary)
$1.825 Cory Redding (minimum player salary plus $1.000 million)
$0.825 Tracy White (minimum player salary)
$0.825 James Sanders (minimum player salary)
$1.700 Dan Connolly (minimum player salary plus $1.000 million)
$0.700 Matt Slater (minimum player salary)
$0.540 Kyle Love (minimum player salary - ERFA)

$25.592 aforementioned subtotal

10 x $0.465 = $4.65 (10 player replacements - one year experience each)

$25.592 - $4.650 = $20.942 subtotal

2 x $0.390 = $0.780 (52nd & 53rd players - rookies)
8 x $0.0969 = $0.775 (8 practice squad players based upon 2011 figures)
$0.000 (injured reserve margin)

$20.942 + $0.780 + $0.775 = $22.497 theoretically spent versus $25.067 available

Please note that this not take into account whether the New England Patriots will re-sign unrestricted free agent running back BenJarvus Green Ellis.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

$0.825 Tracy White (minimum player salary)
$0.825 James Sanders (minimum player salary)

FWIW, the minimum salary benefit still applies, so if UFAs sign for vet minimum + a small signing bonus, the salary is reduced to what a third-year player earns for SC purposes (i.e., the Pats get a "free" ~$300K/player).

 

[ATippett56]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

FWIW, the minimum salary benefit still applies, so if UFAs sign for vet minimum + a small signing bonus, the salary is reduced to what a third-year player earns for SC purposes (i.e., the Pats get a "free" ~$300K/player).

The aforementioned players may want more than the veteran minimum. The aforementioned exercise was to illustrate how quickly salary cap space can be eaten up especially with all the pending New England Patriots free agents.

 

[aurakilla]

"ESPN's Adam Schefter's "sense" of the Mario Williams situation is that the free agent will not wind up with the Patriots.
NFL Network's Michael Lombardi, who is tight with coach Bill Belichick, agrees. Williams has been connected to New England because he would be a perfect fit for Belichick's defense, but it may not work from a money standpoint. For purposes of locker room harmony, Patriots don't typically import players at a higher salary rate than their own stars. "

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