Mike Lombardi on the Jamie Collins trade..

[Danger Zone]

So both the Browns and the Patriots have used the phrase "for a conditional pick".

Neither used the word "compensatory".

 

[luuked]

It's possible that they think Mingo is ready for an expanded role in the passing game, maybe. He's a hell of an athlete, and maybe they figure disciplined, playing-within-his-role Mingo > freelancing Collins?

To be honest the only time I have seen Mingo showing up outside STs (where he plays pretty well) when he was caught a few steps behind on a wheel route. That being said, the coaching staff sees those players everyday in practice so who knows..

 

[BradyFTW!]

The defense has been a top NFL defense. Now, what that might say about the offenses the team's faced, and the other NFL defenses this year...

Isn't that kind of the point, though? If the defense has achieved a good PPG stat by playing a bunch of bad offenses, then PPG should be taken with a grain of salt and not seen as representative of their actual level of play relative to other defenses. We're 18th in DVOA right now.

As far as other defenses go, there are quite a few extremely good defenses in the NFL this year, and we're definitely not one of them. Minnesota, Philly, Seattle and Denver are probably the cream of the crop on defense this year, and based on our D's play thus far we don't really belong in any kind of a conversation with them. Hopefully we can improve things going forward, but that was going to be a tough task even with Collins.

 

[BradyFTW!]

So both the Browns and the Patriots have used the phrase "for a conditional pick".

Neither used the word "compensatory".

It has to be conditional since the Browns haven't been awarded the pick in question yet. What I've been hearing is that it's a compensatory 3rd that becomes a 4th if the Browns don't don't get a comp pick. Forget where I heard that, will dig it up and edit my post in a second.

Does the "forfeit the highest pick" provision apply to the 4th rounder we're losing this year? Because it would suck for the Browns to not get a comp 3rd, then the top pick in the 4th round becomes the one we forfeit. We'd end up with a pick near the end of the 4th for Collins.

 

[rochrist]

Certainly not this year. I think it's fair to say he was last year, but Hightower and Butler have both played at a much higher level than Collins has this season. Probably McCourty too, although he can be tough to observe watching the TV broadcast when he's playing deep so often.

I think, if Lombardi is correct, that he was freelancing and not taking coaching then it's a no-brainer that he had to go. If for nothing else than the message it sends.

 

[ViperGTS]

Shredded is an overstatement, as is any claim that the defense has been good or has played to anything resembling expectations.

But, speaking of yesterday, I do think the Pats' D played a pretty iffy game considering they were going against a Bills offense that was missing McCoy, Watkins, and Goodwin with Woods playing far below 100%.

Yup. Zero way the Bills should have put 25 up. It was bad. Max was 10ish considering the lack of weapons.

 

[Deus Irae]

Isn't that kind of the point, though? If the defense has achieved a good PPG stat by playing a bunch of bad offenses, then PPG should be taken with a grain of salt and not seen as representative of their actual level of play relative to other defenses. We're 18th in DVOA right now.

Not really, IMO, in the context of people bagging on others for rating the defense highly. The defense is what it is, which is a top NFL defense in 2016. This is sort of like last year, with people arguing whether or not it was a top 10 defense.

 

[luuked]

It has to be conditional since the Browns haven't been awarded the pick in question yet. What I've been hearing is that it's a compensatory 3rd that becomes a 4th if the Browns don't don't get a comp pick. Forget where I heard that, will dig it up and edit my post in a second.

That's the really bizarre part of the trade to me. I mean everyone is aware of the 4th rounder that we will lose because of #sciencegate so am not sure why this was acceptable.

 

[TomPatriot]

I'm surprised at the trade but I also saw two bad plays yesterday. Once he overran the play badly. Another he didn't set the edge (a mistake Hightower made also yesterday). I don't agree with Lombardi on the 28 yard run because I thought Collins got held but maybe he was out of position too.

 

[Fencer]

Every year is the same thing, man "Oh we have so much Free space, we going hard". Every year. Sure, if you want to think we are going to change our M.O., then sure. Plus, which FA is going to replace Collins? I don't think there's going to be a player of his caliber, in his position, in Free Agency.

Here's what you seem to be forgetting:

Whether a team gets compensatory picks at all depends on whether they lose more relevant FAs than they sign. It does NOT depend upon the relative quality or cost of the players.

Player cost and quality only factor into the level(s) of picks, IF the team gets any picks at all.

 

[catent]

Mike Loyko ‏@NEPD_Loyko 3m3 minutes ago
Per my Collins source: Collins turned down 11 million per year and recently got into a heated argument with Patricia recently

This report, to some extent, implicitly contradicts Lombardi's overall claim(s) that Collins has been struggling this season and is a large reason for our struggles defensively, no?

Why would you offer a player 11 million per year if he was truly playing as poorly as Lombardi claims?

 

[JayNM]

Here's what you seem to be forgetting:

Whether a team gets compensatory picks at all depends on whether they lose more relevant FAs than they sign. It does NOT depend upon the relative quality or cost of the players.

Player cost and quality only factor into the level(s) of picks, IF the team gets any picks at all.

Yeah, i did take that into consideration. Here is what i said:

"That's why the Patriots have, in recent years, signed players that have been cut rather than had their contract expired. Again, for the last 4 Free agencies, we had more players lost than brought in, for compensatory picks argument. BB clearly thinks that having those picks are important. But that's just speculation, you know? I have as much chance of being right as i have chance of being wrong. For the time being, i don't like the trade."

 

[BradyFTW!]

That's the really bizarre part of the trade to me. I mean everyone is aware of the 4th rounder that we will lose because of #sciencegate so am not sure why this was acceptable.

Yeah, at that point I'd prefer that it become a 3rd rounder next year. Would suck to lose the first pick of the 4th over deflategate - at this point we're depending on some other teams' offseason FA strategy to determine whether we get a low third or a low fourth.

 

[BradyFTW!]

This report, to some extent, implicitly contradicts Lombardi's overall claim(s) that Collins has been struggling this season and is a large reason for our struggles defensively, no?

Why would you offer a player 11 million per year if he was truly playing as poorly as Lombardi claims?

The offer may not have been recent - could be that he rejected the offer during the offseason. Could even be that the resulting issues with freelancing and attitude came about afterward as a direct result of this. Once Collins realized he was in his probably last year with the team (barring franchise tag), could be that he stopped buying in.

 

[catent]

The offer may not have been recent - could be that he rejected the offer during the offseason. Could even be that the resulting issues with freelancing and attitude came about afterward as a direct result of this. Once Collins realized he was in his probably last year with the team (barring franchise tag), could be that he stopped buying in.

Very salient points, well put.

 

[long distance]

It's possible that they think Mingo is ready for an expanded role in the passing game, maybe. He's a hell of an athlete, and maybe they figure disciplined, playing-within-his-role Mingo > freelancing Collins?

We can certainly hope so. My sense is that this move is not only performance based but also disciplinary. I mean sending him to Cleveland instead of SB .. Maybe I am not fair to Collins but yesterday I had a feeling that he is taking care of himself on the field a little .. He looked a great teammate after plays (always quick to pick a teammate from the ground) but not so much during. Maybe BB saw also this and sent him to a place where he will be able to look after himself .. before signing a big contract.

Talent wise it will be hard to replace him (in pass plays) - especially with one body (and we can't play w 12 like we painfully discovered on Sunday) - but if this brings the D together and they can glue better than maybe it can happen. But if High goes down then its gonna be a lot of suffering.

My biggest hope is that CB position gets solidified. Today I was thinking that somebody like Haden could be the thing that could make the biggest difference. When I saw Browns are in this trade I was hoping for Haden. But there is just so much competition for Haden right now ..

 

[luuked]

Talent wise it will be hard to replace him (in pass plays) - especially with one body (and we can't play w 12 like we painfully discovered on Sunday) - but if this brings the D together and they can glue better than maybe it can happen. But if High goes down then its gonna be a lot of suffering.

Ironically it was Collins that was in the spotlight during the entire 12-men debacle. So yeah.

 

[long distance]

Isn't that kind of the point, though? If the defense has achieved a good PPG stat by playing a bunch of bad offenses, then PPG should be taken with a grain of salt and not seen as representative of their actual level of play relative to other defenses. We're 18th in DVOA right now.

As far as other defenses go, there are quite a few extremely good defenses in the NFL this year, and we're definitely not one of them. Minnesota, Philly, Seattle and Denver are probably the cream of the crop on defense this year, and based on our D's play thus far we don't really belong in any kind of a conversation with them. Hopefully we can improve things going forward, but that was going to be a tough task even with Collins.

Also teams like Rams or Chargers (at least before they lost Verrett). Some solid D's but rare elite in this injury plagued first part of the season.

But BB is not comparing. He knows his players and coaches, he evaluates potential and envisions what he wants out of it .. and actually trusts his “eye test“ ..

 

[long distance]

EDIT: I bet he's talking about CBs there at the end. Ryan also looks like he's playing with future in mind lately .. after a pretty solid start.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Also teams like Rams or Chargers (at least before they lost Verrett). Some solid D's but rare elite in this injury plagued first part of the season.

But BB is not comparing. He knows his players and coaches, he evaluates potential and envisions what he wants out of it .. and actually trusts his “eye test“ ..

For sure, that wasn't an exhaustive list. There are lots of other defenses that have outperformed the Pats, I just stuck with the cream of the crop. I think DVOA has been pretty accurate overall: our defense has been right about at league average IMO.