BobDigital
Pro Bowl Player
- Joined
- Aug 10, 2013
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What makes a championship team? Simply put, getting the the most talent possible out on the field for the same amount of money that everybody else pays. After that there are human factors and coaching that come into play, but generally those things only tend to REALLY matter if the above is close. As this year has shown us once again Players > Coaching. But what is the secret formula? It's impossible to know. Cause no one can tell us for sure what a player is worth any given year.
The 13% rule has been brought up a lot for QBs lately, and while it isn't always true, it is really part of a larger question about value and good contracts. Drafting well to get low priced talent in, and luck with injuries on your best/most valued players.
However, if we were to do a best estimate what would it take to be a super bowl champion? How much do you need to get on the field talent wise above the cap to be one of the top teams? It's an impossible question to answer for sure. But I'll give it a try. Let's look at the 2020 Bucs.
They entered with a salary cap of 198.2 which rolled over into 204, and they used 203 of it. That puts them 5 over the cap. They also had dead money and injured reserved. Subtract those and you have about 187M. At this point they are about 11M under expected value. However, their injuries where not major when it came to the most important times in the playoffs for them.
Here are the main contracts that were plus value. This will be totally based on my opinion.
Brady 28.5M vs a real value of 40M (+11.5M)
Evans 8.3M vs a real value of 17.3M (+9M)
Marpet 6.9M vs 12.9M (+6M)
Vea 4M vs 15M (+11M)
Wirfs 3M vs 15M (+12M)
Godwin 2.3M vs 14.2M (+12M)
Brown 2M vs 8M (+6M)
Bunting 1.7M vs 6.7M (+5M)
Davis 1.2M vs 9.2M (+8M)
Dean .9M vs 4.9M (+4M)
Winfield 1.3M vs 8.3M (+7M)
Misc (+6M) <They had very few bad contracts and a bunch of other pretty good contracts>
Add all of this up and their total on the field cash goes from 187M to (+97.5M) 284.5M or about 43.5% above cap value (198.2) by my estimate.
So what does this number really mean? Is there anything we can take from it? Let's look at one of our own Patriots teams and find out. Let's look at the most recent champion, the 2018 Patriots. The salary cap then was 177.2M. Taking away injured reserve and dead cap they spent 156M (so they are at 88% of the cap)
Brady 22M vs a real value of 37M (+15M) <A slightly higher % than 2020 for rounding purposes, but he was also slightly better then IMO>
Gilmore 8.9M vs a real value of 18.9M(+10M)
Cannon 6M vs 8M (+2M)
Edelman 3.9M vs 7.9M (+4M)
Van Noy 3.7M vs 7.7M (+4M)
Guy 3.7M vs 5.7M (+2M)
Mason 3.4M vs 12.4M (+9M)
McCourty 3.9M vs 6.9M (+3M)
Andrews 2.4M vs 8.4M (+6M)
Flowers 2M vs 13M (+11M)
Trenton Brown 1.9M vs 9.9M (+8M) <Who else kinda forgot about how big he was for us this year?>
Thuney .9M vs 8.9M (+8M)
J. Jones .6M vs 5.6M (+5M)
Jackson .5 vs 8.5M (8M) <This is at the time, his value has gone up since>
Misc (+3M) <some other okay contracts>
Overall this comes out to (+98M) I didn't do this math before hand by the way. So I didn't change anything to try to make it fit with anything else. Let's pop it in an see what happens. 98 + 155=253M That is about 43% above cap value. AND I SWEAR I DID NOT SET THIS UP BEFORE HAND OR CHANGE THE NUMBERS. You might disagree with my numbers and that is fine, do them yourself and see what you come up with. But it seems to me we might be seeing a pattern here. Something about getting over 40% of your cap value on the field is probably close to some kind of threshold.
Do it yourself and change my numbers and see what you come up with.
The 13% rule has been brought up a lot for QBs lately, and while it isn't always true, it is really part of a larger question about value and good contracts. Drafting well to get low priced talent in, and luck with injuries on your best/most valued players.
However, if we were to do a best estimate what would it take to be a super bowl champion? How much do you need to get on the field talent wise above the cap to be one of the top teams? It's an impossible question to answer for sure. But I'll give it a try. Let's look at the 2020 Bucs.
They entered with a salary cap of 198.2 which rolled over into 204, and they used 203 of it. That puts them 5 over the cap. They also had dead money and injured reserved. Subtract those and you have about 187M. At this point they are about 11M under expected value. However, their injuries where not major when it came to the most important times in the playoffs for them.
Here are the main contracts that were plus value. This will be totally based on my opinion.
Brady 28.5M vs a real value of 40M (+11.5M)
Evans 8.3M vs a real value of 17.3M (+9M)
Marpet 6.9M vs 12.9M (+6M)
Vea 4M vs 15M (+11M)
Wirfs 3M vs 15M (+12M)
Godwin 2.3M vs 14.2M (+12M)
Brown 2M vs 8M (+6M)
Bunting 1.7M vs 6.7M (+5M)
Davis 1.2M vs 9.2M (+8M)
Dean .9M vs 4.9M (+4M)
Winfield 1.3M vs 8.3M (+7M)
Misc (+6M) <They had very few bad contracts and a bunch of other pretty good contracts>
Add all of this up and their total on the field cash goes from 187M to (+97.5M) 284.5M or about 43.5% above cap value (198.2) by my estimate.
So what does this number really mean? Is there anything we can take from it? Let's look at one of our own Patriots teams and find out. Let's look at the most recent champion, the 2018 Patriots. The salary cap then was 177.2M. Taking away injured reserve and dead cap they spent 156M (so they are at 88% of the cap)
Brady 22M vs a real value of 37M (+15M) <A slightly higher % than 2020 for rounding purposes, but he was also slightly better then IMO>
Gilmore 8.9M vs a real value of 18.9M(+10M)
Cannon 6M vs 8M (+2M)
Edelman 3.9M vs 7.9M (+4M)
Van Noy 3.7M vs 7.7M (+4M)
Guy 3.7M vs 5.7M (+2M)
Mason 3.4M vs 12.4M (+9M)
McCourty 3.9M vs 6.9M (+3M)
Andrews 2.4M vs 8.4M (+6M)
Flowers 2M vs 13M (+11M)
Trenton Brown 1.9M vs 9.9M (+8M) <Who else kinda forgot about how big he was for us this year?>
Thuney .9M vs 8.9M (+8M)
J. Jones .6M vs 5.6M (+5M)
Jackson .5 vs 8.5M (8M) <This is at the time, his value has gone up since>
Misc (+3M) <some other okay contracts>
Overall this comes out to (+98M) I didn't do this math before hand by the way. So I didn't change anything to try to make it fit with anything else. Let's pop it in an see what happens. 98 + 155=253M That is about 43% above cap value. AND I SWEAR I DID NOT SET THIS UP BEFORE HAND OR CHANGE THE NUMBERS. You might disagree with my numbers and that is fine, do them yourself and see what you come up with. But it seems to me we might be seeing a pattern here. Something about getting over 40% of your cap value on the field is probably close to some kind of threshold.
Do it yourself and change my numbers and see what you come up with.
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