Tankathon

[40yrpatsfan]

The perfect end to a horrible season; not even getting a top 3 or 4 pick (and worse, #7 overall).

Really looks like it will be no worse than #5, and if AZ can beat Seattle at home, no worse than #4.

 

[BHPatriot]

In my opinion, these three QBs are nothing like the 2021 draft class, or any recent draft class in my opinion. As they say in investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. I think these guys are all really good and you have to get one of them. Sure, there may be a drop off after the top two, but I still think Daniels gives you tremendous upside and he likely has the best WAR in the 3-5 pick range. I think it would be hard to find a QB like him in a future draft.

And please, please no offensive tackle. I also like the Megatron analogy for MHJ. Sure, he may be a great receiver, but that position is not a difference maker like QB.

 

[Wax Frog]

The only one that bothers me and I'm not sure why it does but its the loose for lose and loosing for losing.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It does - Broncos/Raiders is a wash for NE because they played both teams so they’ll get 1 win and 1 loss regardless, but Washington only played the Broncos, so you want Washington to gain a win and not a loss. Therefore the Broncos winning is a boon. If you look at the chart with the Broncos and Falcons winning then you can have nearly any other permutation of wins in the other 3 games and still finish with the Pats on top. Not quite every outcome, but nearly.

Look at the table again. DEN, BAL, CHI, and HOU all appear exactly the same number of times (8).

 

[Ross12]

Really looks like it will be no worse than #5, and if AZ can beat Seattle at home, no worse than #4.

One bright spot (if you wanna call it that) is if the Pats beat the Jets, that gives the Pats "2 losses" in the SOS, so to speak, because the Jets count in their schedule twice.

The Packers win last night raised the Giants' SOS up to .511. I did some quick math, and it looks like the key games for the Pats vs. Giants if the Pats become a 5-win team are the Raiders, Packers, Colts and Steelers games.

If the Raiders lose the Broncos, Packers lose to the Bears, Colts lose to the Texans, and Steelers lose to the Ravens, then both teams will end with the same SOS and the Pats will get pick #4 due to the head-to-head loss. The Chargers and Titans are too far off in SOS to catch up among the 5 win teams.

If the Raiders win, that helps the Pats, as the Pats would still gain a loss since they also played the Broncos, so no effect to NE's SOS but would increase the Giants' SOS. If the Packers win, that increases the Giants' SOS. A Colts win and/or Steelers win would increase NE's SOS however.

Would most likely need to have a Raiders AND Packers loss PLUS one of the Colts or Steelers winning for the Giants to finish with a better pick than the Pats. If both the Colts and Steelers lose on Saturday then I believe it will be impossible for the Giants to pass the Pats. If they go 1-1 or 2-0 then need the Raiders and Packers to go the same or better respectively on Sunday.

 

[Ross12]

Look at the table again. DEN, BAL, CHI, and HOU all appear exactly the same number of times (8).

But what I'm saying is that a Denver winning appears in 8 combinations (including the lone Saints win combo), whereas Vegas winning only appears in 4 combinations. Therefore, the Broncos winning is much more favorable.

 

[PatsfanTN]

 

[Steve102]

@Ross12

 

[JohnJH]

Really looks like it will be no worse than #5, and if AZ can beat Seattle at home, no worse than #4.

Indeed. Personally, I hope it's no lower than the 4th overall (though I'm hoping for the 2nd or 3rd overall).

 

[Ross12]

Really looks like it will be no worse than #5, and if AZ can beat Seattle at home, no worse than #4.

Don't need AZ to win - even if Pats beat the Jets, if the Raiders and Packers finish with the same # or more wins than the Colts and Steelers this weekend then the Pats will have a lower or equal SOS than the Giants and thus will get the higher pick, due to SOS or head-to-head tiebreaker.

If the above happens PLUS in addition Arizona wins as well then the Pats would actually still get the #3 pick even with beating the Jets.

 

[venecol]

If Harrison's on the board at 3, they're taking Harrison. They may take him at 2 depending on what happens in FA.

I'd be ecstatic if they take Harrison. Point is at #3, you have choices you don't have at #5 or #6.

 

[Ross12]

@Ross12

Best message I can give - the Colts/Texans and Steelers/Ravens are the Saturday games and both are crucial to Patriot seeding, either for the #2 seed if they lose to the Jets, or for the #4 seed if they beat the Jets. Once those games are over on Saturday we will have a pretty good idea of the likely outcomes and the few games to pay attention to. But it seems very very likely that they #2 at best and #5 at worst. I don't think there's really any chance they go lower than #5, but realistically I think it's probably between #2 and #4.

 

[1960Pats]

If Bill is still the GM the Pats are screwed. He will trade back multiple times for 2nd round picks and continue to roll with QB by committee.

I like that strategy if you have someone making the picks based on talent and not on how easy they are to coach.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

But what I'm saying is that a Denver winning appears in 8 combinations (including the lone Saints win combo), whereas Vegas winning only appears in 4 combinations. Therefore, the Broncos winning is much more favorable.

Then I think we're disagreeing over terminology. My point is that all of the non-Falcons games have the same impact: a NE-favorable outcome helps them more than a loss.

 

[aluminum seats]

If the Raiders lose the Broncos, Packers lose to the Bears, Colts lose to the Texans, and Steelers lose to the Ravens

This sums up why some of us weren't happy with the "thrilling" victories over the Bills and the Broncos

It was clear we just had to bite the bullet after a 20 year stretch of dominance and hope that the patriots lost

No guarantees here, obviously, but it was all about maximizing our chances. Those who couldn't bear to see the patriots lose a couple of meaningless games in a lost season were just weak

On the plus side, who we root for makes no difference in terms of what happens. So fingers crossed

 

[venecol]

It does - Broncos/Raiders is a wash for NE because they played both teams so they’ll get 1 win and 1 loss regardless, but Washington only played the Broncos, so you want Washington to gain a win and not a loss. Therefore the Broncos winning is a boon. If you look at the chart with the Broncos and Falcons winning then you can have nearly any other permutation of wins in the other 3 games and still finish with the Pats on top. Not quite every outcome, but nearly.

I think the focus needs to be Pats vs NYG. WAS will lose. Pats will win, putting them at 5 wins along w/ NYG, TEN & LAC. Only NYG has a lower SoS than the Pats.

Under that scenario, if HOU, GB, LVR, and BAL all win, we could just drop to #4, ahead of the NYG.

Of course, if ARZ happens to beat SEA, then we could potentially remain at #3 if all the above teams win.

 

[1960Pats]

Yeh if it were anyone but the fing Jets...

Idk what u do if ur the Patriots

I know what the players will be doing. If you had a clue you would too, even though your a troll.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

I know what the players will be doing. If you had a clue you would too, even though your a troll.

I’m a 30 year fan. And I want the Pats to lose.

People disagreeing with you does not, by default, make them “clueless”.

It’s simply executive function…immediate gratification vs. best for the longer term outcome.

It’s certainly subjective.

A win vs the Jets does absolutely nothing for 2024 season and beyond, a loss does.

Ultimately, I doubt the Pats lose to the Jets, and they end up at #6 taking best LT available.

Not the end of the world, but still need a QB so you are hoping a Mccarthy slips to the 2nd rd pick

 

[Ross12]

Then I think we're disagreeing over terminology. My point is that all of the non-Falcons games have the same impact: a NE-favorable outcome helps them more than a loss.

Yeah, think we are on the same page and just saying the same thing different ways. All good. We will have this all behind us in a few days anyway.

I think the focus needs to be Pats vs NYG. WAS will lose. Pats will win, putting them at 5 wins along w/ NYG, TEN & LAC. Only NYG has a lower SoS than the Pats.

Under that scenario, if HOU, GB, LVR, and BAL all win, we could just drop to #4, ahead of the NYG.

Of course, if ARZ happens to beat SEA, then we could potentially remain at #3 if all the above teams win.

I detailed a bit further up the page, but don't even need all 4 games to go our way. Basically just need the Colts and Steelers to lose as many or more games as the Packers and Raiders. If the Packers and Raiders go 1-1 then the Colts and Steelers need to go 1-1 or 0-2, etc, for the Pats to tie SOS with the Giants. If they tie then the Pats win the #4 seed due to head-to-head. Could be #3 if AZ gets a win over Seattle.

If QB is the target then I think they are primed either way. If they finish at 4 with AZ at 3 then AZ likely takes MHJ and NE can take Daniels or whichever top 3 QB is available still. If AZ wins their game and NE gets 3, then they can just take the QB. If NE loses then they potentially have a better selection of which QB they want. Only issue is if they finish behind NYG and go to #5, they could miss out, but I think that's not likely all things considered - and a small trade up is not crazy in that case.

 

[everlong]

What it's like watching the Patriots the past couple of years.