Doesn't matter.
Only two things matter:
1.) Do we spend to the cap limit every year?
2.) Are we winning games?
For 2023, it was Yes and No.
This isn't quite the case.
The cap is an accounting mechanism, NOT the asset, and not the price of the asset.
Let us say a business had players as their assets. And, let us presume that all obeyed the rules.
Let us presume that each team could spend $200M each year.
BASIC LEVEL
One business might choose to control $200M AAV of contracts, with any backloading of long-term contracts matched by one year contracts.
Another business might choose to backload contracts as a matter of policy.
SITUATION ONE
I control $200 AAV.
SITUATION TWO
I might control MORE than $200M AAV. If I defer $40M every year on average. I would be controlling $240M AAV. This could be done on a permanent basis. A team could choose to defer 20% of annual cap value.
But they eventually have to pay. That is the case only if the NFL ceases to exist.
So, one team chooses to control $200M of contracts. Another chooses to control $240M.
NOTE
1) The cap goes up over time.
2) There are risks associated with backloading contracts. Sure, perhaps a player isn't worth anything in his second year. But where was the risk. If I pay a player $10M a year and defer $5M of it from his first year to the second, I can still cut him and pay deferred money. I haven't lost anything.
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TEAMS GOING ALL IN
Yes, a team can use a strategy of try for a good couple of years, and pay for it with 4 bad years. That results when a large amount of current contract are deferred into the future. While a certain amount is almost permanent, an excessive amount end up with you haveing a cycle of say 3 year of very high amount of contract controlled, and then some years of having a lot of the defereed money and little in terms of contracts. This happens when the player doesn't play in the last years of the contract.
This strategy is NOT terrible, Some fans greatly prefer it. And the league seems to favor this strategy by giving teams who have 2-4 years at the bottom top draft picks.
SOME TEAMS GO WITH THE FLOW AND DEFER A NEAR AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONTRACTS
Depending on many factors, these teams will be the norm. Some will be winning teams almost always (e.g. PITT)/ Some will be perpetual losers. BUT, it will not be the cap that it the cause. I would note that these teams will rarely be at the bottom.
AND THEN SOME ALMOST REFUSE TO DEFER
If the norm is deferring 20% and thus being able to control 120% of cap per year, these teams CHOOSE not to spend the 20%. They control less value in contracts. To be clear, on average their teams are worse because they CHOOSE, on average, to have less talent on their teams.
The extreme of this group is the New England Patriots.