Some rumblings in this forum the past couple of days about how the Pats beat up on the league's 90 pound weaklings but can't seem to beat good teams. So I looked into their results from 2005-2012 (minus 2008 b/c they were without Brady) - the "we're awesome but can't win a Super Bowl" time period for New England. Here's what I found.
First, I looked at every game played against a team that finished 8-8 or better. Here were the results:
65 games
48 wins
27 losses
.640 winning percentage
+7.1 average margin of victory
.638 total regular season win % of opponents
That's pretty amazing right there. Against the upper half of the league, teams that win 64% of their games, the Pats won 64% of their games against this level of competition. Now, here is the breakdown by # of opponent wins (i.e., teams with 8 wins, teams with 9 wins, etc.).
Vs. 8 win teams
16-1 (.941), +16.6 MOV
Vs. 9 win teams
6-8 (.429), +1.2 MOV
Vs. 10 win teams
7-5 (.583), +3.7 MOV
Vs. 11 win teams
8-5 (.615), +10.9 MOV
Vs. 12 win teams
6-3 (.667), +7.3 MOV
Vs. 13 win teams
4-3 (.571), -0.7 MOV
Vs. 14 win teams
1-2 (.333), -5.7 MOV
Against "elite" teams (teams that win 12+ games)
11-8 (.579), +2.3 MOV
Those "elite" teams had a total record of 241-63, meaning they won more than 79% of their games, and yet the Pats won 58% of their games against this elite group.
It is a myth that the Pats are not built to beat good teams. They beat elite teams nearly 60% of the time since 2005. The problem is that you have to beat, generally speaking, THREE elite teams in a row. If you just go with the probability of 60%, the math works out to:
.6 x .6 x .6 = .216
That means the Pats, based on their own level of success against elite teams, essentially have a 21.6% chance of winning all three games. That's about 1 in 5. Well, they're a bit under that, because they're 0-7 in their last 7 seasons (again, not counting 2008). So they're "due". But they've come THISCLOSE on at least two occasions (2007, 2011), and this razor thin margin can be attributed to a lot of things, but certainly not the notion that they're not built to beat good teams.
They're the best in the league at beating good teams, and have been for a very long time.
EDIT: .58 x .58 x .58 = .195, meaning they have less than a 1 in 5 chance to beat three elite teams in a row
First, I looked at every game played against a team that finished 8-8 or better. Here were the results:
65 games
48 wins
27 losses
.640 winning percentage
+7.1 average margin of victory
.638 total regular season win % of opponents
That's pretty amazing right there. Against the upper half of the league, teams that win 64% of their games, the Pats won 64% of their games against this level of competition. Now, here is the breakdown by # of opponent wins (i.e., teams with 8 wins, teams with 9 wins, etc.).
Vs. 8 win teams
16-1 (.941), +16.6 MOV
Vs. 9 win teams
6-8 (.429), +1.2 MOV
Vs. 10 win teams
7-5 (.583), +3.7 MOV
Vs. 11 win teams
8-5 (.615), +10.9 MOV
Vs. 12 win teams
6-3 (.667), +7.3 MOV
Vs. 13 win teams
4-3 (.571), -0.7 MOV
Vs. 14 win teams
1-2 (.333), -5.7 MOV
Against "elite" teams (teams that win 12+ games)
11-8 (.579), +2.3 MOV
Those "elite" teams had a total record of 241-63, meaning they won more than 79% of their games, and yet the Pats won 58% of their games against this elite group.
It is a myth that the Pats are not built to beat good teams. They beat elite teams nearly 60% of the time since 2005. The problem is that you have to beat, generally speaking, THREE elite teams in a row. If you just go with the probability of 60%, the math works out to:
.6 x .6 x .6 = .216
That means the Pats, based on their own level of success against elite teams, essentially have a 21.6% chance of winning all three games. That's about 1 in 5. Well, they're a bit under that, because they're 0-7 in their last 7 seasons (again, not counting 2008). So they're "due". But they've come THISCLOSE on at least two occasions (2007, 2011), and this razor thin margin can be attributed to a lot of things, but certainly not the notion that they're not built to beat good teams.
They're the best in the league at beating good teams, and have been for a very long time.
EDIT: .58 x .58 x .58 = .195, meaning they have less than a 1 in 5 chance to beat three elite teams in a row