Why tanking does not work in the NFL and could doom the Patriots long-term

[FredFromDartmouth]

The season is finished. There are no playoff chances. I don’t really understand why getting a better draft pick would be worse for the Patriots than getting a later one. Doesn’t really make any sense. The season is tanked.

I agree. If they tank to a top five pick, they can, and should, trade down and get a bunch of players such as OT, WR, etc. in addition to a QB.

 

[Santi]

Exactly, the season has been long blown it makes no sense to win anymore games.

We need top talent at qb and WR, the only way to do that is to be in the top picks in the draft or get a complete fluke.

Do they also need to be better and more aggressive with talent evaluation? Yeah sure, no point having top 5 picks each round to pull duds but consistently being at the middle/end of the rounds has slowly degraded the overall roster quality.

I’m not sure how people expect us to keep it competitive through FA pick ups, trades and late draft picks. You can’t afford any mistakes in that case and what team doesn’t make mistakes? Yes, they’ve also pissed money away in FA but that just proves the point, that desperation to stay competitive cost us further.

 

[Tunescribe]

it makes no sense to win anymore games.

You play to WIN the game. WINNING is what builds teams and programs, rookies are a big crapshoot wherever they're drafted. Look at it this way: the Patriots are 2-8 and will likely lose most of their last seven. Winning another two or three games will make little difference in draft position.

But the team will do what it does regardless of what we think. I just can't imagine hoping the Patriots lose, for any reason.

More to my point:

More Than 50% Of First Round Picks Are Busts And Other Terrifying Draft Statistics

How analytics can help lead to better drafting - especially when there is so much risk in the first round.

theriotreport.com

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Thus far it’s been an almost perfect pseudo tank. We’ve been reasonably competitive in all but 2 games and the boys have been engaged, yet here we are with the 3rd pick. Be amazing if they can keep this up over the second half without winning more than 1-2 games.

 

[venecol]

 

[venecol]

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Its also top picks at rounds 2-7 and top of waiver claim wire. It is not a sure thing but improves chances of a turnaround.
Tanking does NOT mean players do not try. It means putting your younger players in to get them experience.
Patriots roster will see tremendous turnover at end of season anyway. I do not buy the “winning culture argument”.
There will be a new head coach and general manager for next season anyway, they will bring an entirely new culture into the organization.
I would not call it tanking. I would call it putting yourself in the best position for a successful and rapid rebuild. It’s not just about the first round pick either.

So-called “tanking” worked pretty well for the Philadelphia Eagles. After they decided to switch to Hurts they pulled many of their starters so they could get in the best possible draft position. That netted them, Davante Smith, and many other good players, who have been the foundation of the team they are today.
Also look at the Bengals, it worked pretty well for them too. It got them, Joe Burrow, and Ja’Marr Chase, and many other good players at the top of rounds two through seven.

Worked for the colts.. they got Andrew luck

 

[Santi]

You play to WIN the game. WINNING is what builds teams and programs, rookies are a big crapshoot wherever they're drafted. Look at it this way: the Patriots are 2-8 and will likely lose most of their last seven. Winning another two or three games will make little difference in draft position.

But the team will do what it does regardless of what we think. I just can't imagine hoping the Patriots lose, for any reason.

More to my point:

More Than 50% Of First Round Picks Are Busts And Other Terrifying Draft Statistics

How analytics can help lead to better drafting - especially when there is so much risk in the first round.

theriotreport.com

Yeah you play to win to start the season, nobody goes into a season looking for 0-17 to get the number one pick…but when your season is clearly ****ed then it’s only logical to take the best pick you can.

Nothing to do with mentality, nothing to do with a winning culture (**** me if we don’t have an established winning culture from the last 30 years then we never will) and nothing to do with being happy about your team losing. Just why take the 6/7th pick if us already being trash this season can result in a top 3 pick?

I’ve not read your article but no doubt it says similar to what I already acknowledged. Nobody is saying losing on purpose guarantees a hit in the draft, but the earlier pick in every round (not just 1st round it mentions) certainly ****in helps lol.

Btw out of interest do you want Bill gone?

 

[Tunescribe]

Yeah you play to win to start the season, nobody goes into a season looking for 0-17 to get the number one pick…but when your season is clearly ****ed then it’s only logical to take the best pick you can.

Nothing to do with mentality, nothing to do with a winning culture (**** me if we don’t have an established winning culture from the last 30 years then we never will) and nothing to do with being happy about your team losing. Just why take the 6/7th pick if us already being trash this season can result in a top 3 pick?

I’ve not read your article but no doubt it says similar to what I already acknowledged. Nobody is saying losing on purpose guarantees a hit in the draft, but the earlier pick in every round (not just 1st round it mentions) certainly ****in helps lol.

Btw out of interest do you want Bill gone?

I've said it elsewhere: yes, I think Belichick's tenure is done. It's hard to imagine him salvaging this mess.

 

[1960Pats]

I think we’ve got a QB playing like **** without the coach telling him to…

Who picked that scrub and who's been coaching him for 3 years?

 

[1960Pats]

A - You know what you are if you lose games on purpose to improve your draft choice? The answer is simple, you're a loser.

B - You know what you are when you cheat to win or lose games? Another easy answer, you're a cheater.

A+B=C - Every Tankhead is a loser and a cheater.

 

[Santi]

I've said it elsewhere: yes, I think Belichick's tenure is done. It's hard to imagine him salvaging this mess.

So we want a winning culture but remove the winningest coach (ok 3rd on regular season game wins) in NFL history? A guy who’s known for pushing people to the max and accepting no ******** in the pursuit of winning.

Seems counterintuitive to me. He needs support to build the parts better but he’s still the man on the ground to run the machine.

 

[Tunescribe]

So we want a winning culture but remove the winningest coach (ok 3rd on regular season game wins) in NFL history? A guy who’s known for pushing people to the max and accepting no ******** in the pursuit of winning.

Seems counterintuitive to me. He needs support to build the parts better but he’s still the man on the ground to run the machine.

I'm open to that argument. It could be he has spread himself so thin that his coaching has suffered. But BB has made some uncharacteristically questionable game-day decisions this season, both in use of personnel and strategically. Plus, the team hasn't seemed prepared, too often getting down early. Maybe if he wasn't also wearing the GM hat all that would change. We'll see what Kraft decides.

Also questionable re. "accepting no B.S." is bringing bad actors like Jack Jones and J.C. Jackson into the fold to begin with. Once you start depending on players like that and they go off the reservation, team performance suffers. It never used to be that way on BB teams.

 

[venecol]

 

[Wozzy]

Tanking doesn't work in the NFL. That being said, I'd rather they use the remaining seven games to determine who will be on the team next season.

Play Zappe or Grier to see if they can start, if they can't... play them to determine if one is at least good enough to be the bridge QB to the guy you draft.

Along with playing the other QB's, play your young WR's and see if they can develop at a faster rate, see if better QB play helps them assuming that's what we get.

If the QB play continues to stink to high heaven, they won't have to purposely tank... it will happen organically.

The other side of that equation is what if Zappe or Grier don't just play "okay," what if one of them comes out and lights up the scoreboard. It would be better to enter next offseason knowing you don't need a QB and you can use that first rounder on a left tackle. *
*Just for the sake of expediency and a clean thread, all the negative Nancys who'll tell us every Patriot player sucks by default and no current QB will do well... let's just assume you've already said it and keep the bold predictions to yourself... for cripessakes.

 

[Pats1971]

To your point, having a good team around him helped TB12 be successful initially and steadily improve to become the GOAT. Who knows how things would have turned out if he was thrown into the fire on this team. Everyone would have been convinced that he was just a 6th round draft pick. I want the Pats to spend the rest of the year trying to put the pieces together to build momentum for next year. At draft time they should pick the best available player.

Brady was drafted to a 5-11 team who started the season 0-2 when he was tossed in becuase of an injury. The fact that you think Brady came into some nice place that was built for him is comical. The difference is, Brady made what is around him better. Mac makes what is around him worse.

 

[LightSkinSmurf]

Yeah, I don't buy for a second that winning a few more games this year would help us out more than having a higher draft pick. Obviously it doesn't guarantee anything. It's still better than the alternative. They aren't going to actively try to lose, but luckily for us they don't have to because the team is genuinely terrible. Winning 2-3 more games this year means jack s***.

Mac needs to make up for that bills win by losing this one. I have full confidence he can do it... All while trying his absolute best to win.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Brady was drafted to a 5-11 team who started the season 0-2 when he was tossed in becuase of an injury. The fact that you think Brady came into some nice place that was built for him is comical. The difference is, Brady made what is around him better. Mac makes what is around him worse.

LOL, history has proven that squad to be loaded with all pro's and had a great leadership support system for a young player starting at QB for the first time. Acknowledging that Brady had a better situation than Mac is simply fact and does not take away from his legacy.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Here's the draft chart showing the extreme value of the first few picks. Right now our 3rd pick is worth 2200 points - that's worth over 10 picks in the upper half of the third round. If we pick 4th instead, we lose the equivalent of the 50th pick.

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

www.drafttek.com

I really don't think it is in our DNA to tank. But I could see us playing more of the younger players (like Mapu and Boutte) to see what we have.

 

[TommyD4207]

Here's the draft chart showing the extreme value of the first few picks. Right now our 3rd pick is worth 2200 points - that's worth over 10 picks in the upper half of the third round. If we pick 4th instead, we lose the equivalent of the 50th pick.

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

www.drafttek.com

I really don't think it is in our DNA to tank. But I could see us playing more of the younger players (like Mapu and Boutte) to see what we have.

It's interesting, right? Like, say you end up #1 overall (not impossible), and you can get a haul to move down to 3 or 4, and get Marvin Harrison. Would you then go get Baker Mayfield and try to give it a run for a couple of years?

I honestly don't know the answer to that, and I've thought a lot about it. Those picks from that trade down would probably last much longer than Belichick would.