Exploring the Cam Newton vs Receiver dynamic.
Here's an interesting angle to explore. The production of a WR is often highly dependent on a few factors, the system, his own performance, and his QB. So let's see how Newton's QB performance affected his receivers. Let's take a quick look at Newton's performance in his last
3 seasons and how that affected his wideouts. For this exercise we will look at Steve Smith vs Brandon Lafell in the Carolina system.
Cam Newton last 3 years:
2011 60% completion 4,051 yards Y/A 7.8 21 TDs 17 INTs 84.5 Rating
2012 57.7% completion 3,869 yards Y/A 8.0 19 TDs 12 INTs 86.2 Rating
2013 61.7% completion 3,379 yards Y/A 7.1 24 TDs 13 INTs 88.8 Rating
So what trends do we notice here? Newton's yardage production has decreased, but his passing efficiency has increased. It seems that Carolina was trying to shelter Newton by limiting the number of throws that he took. By his third year he was also on average, making shorter throws. It would not be surprising to see an overall reduction in the stats of his receivers simply because Newton IS producing less numbers overall.
Steve Smith last 3 years:
2011 1,394 yards 7 TDs 17.6 YPR
2012 1,174 yards 4 TDs 16.1 YPR
2013 754 yards 4 TDs 11.6 YPR
When we examine Steve Smith's numbers we see right away that his statistics are proportionately affected by Newton's drop in productivity. It also shows us why Carolina decided to release the receiver. He just did not fit well with the Panther's emphasis on reducing Newton's number of throws and distance of throws to increase overall efficiency. It's hard to justify spending 7m per season for a receiver who is no longer putting up #1 numbers in your offensive system.
Now let's look at Lafell's numbers. And I think you will be surprised.
Brandon Lafell last 3 years:
2011 613 yards 3 TDs 17.0 YPR
2012 677 yards 4 TDs 15.4 YPR
2013 627 yards 5 TDs 12.8 YPR
What we see with Lafell is the model of consistency. He steadily improved his TD numbers in the redzone. His yardage produced remained the same, and his YPR dropped slightly each year, reflecting the Panther's shift to a shorter passing game to increase Newton's efficiency. It seems that Lafell was far less negatively influenced by a decreased emphasis on the passing game than Steve Smith. Meanwhile Lafell is still only 27 and still has some room for growth as a possession-based, tall WR.
Now consider Brady's numbers over the past 3 seasons and consider how he can make WRs appear BETTER than they are:
Tom Brady last 3 years:
2011 65.6% completion 5235 yards 39 TDs 12 INTs 8.6 Y/A 105.6 Rating
2012 63.0% completion 4827 yards 34 TDs 8 INTs 7.6 Y/A 98.7 Rating
2013 60.5% completion 4343 yards 25 TDs 11 INTs 6.9 Y/A 87.3 Rating
Brady's 2013 numbers is a reflection of the fact that we lost Gronk for a big portion of the season plus lost AH due to prison. Additionally it was a transition year in which we relied on an unprecedented 3 rookie receivers in addition to Edelman and the injury-prone Amendola.
If most of Brady's main targets remain healthy this year - aka Gronk, Edelman, Amendola. And/or we see a second year leap from the group of Dobson, Thompson, Boyce. Plus we add a few quality 2nd/3rd options such as Lafell and Britt. With these additional weapons and healthy primary targets, I foresee a bounce back year from Brady. Tom could easily return to his career norms of 63.4% completion percentage and our offense as a whole would benefit proportionately.
When you factor in Brady's better touch, production, and pass accuracy compared to Newton, it is realistic to project Lafell with better production in our system as well. Furthermore the numbers suggest that if our offense goes more run heavy than pass heavy, Lafell should still remain relatively unaffected. Which makes him the perfect candidate for a #3 receiver in the Pats system. Sometimes - steady as she goes - is just what an offense needs to produce consistently.
