An interesting list of what can we get from QB desperate Teams for our pick #3

[Water Boy]

I'm scared of drafting a qb bust and I love accumulating draft capital, but I think I'm going Maye or Daniels with the pick.

I really wish we could also get one of the top tackles in the draft, but its hard to see how that can happen if we go QB at 3.

 

[Ivan]

I have to believe they are targeting a QB, or the QBs they like they think will be gone.
Supposedly Mayo asked every Oc candidate what QB they liked the most in this draft.
Why would they be asking that if the plan is to punt on a QB,
Now a trade down from 3-8 and still get your QB or if Van Pelt said Justin Fields’s or Mayfield is the target that makes the Most sense.

Why would anyone trade for a QB whose current team is so desperate to get rid of him that they are willing to pass up multiple first round picks so they can replace him?

 

[Ivan]

I'm scared of drafting a qb bust and I love accumulating draft capital, but I think I'm going Maye or Daniels with the pick.

I really wish we could also get one of the top tackles in the draft, but its hard to see how that can happen if we go QB at 3.

Actually they can get a really good starting tackle simply by trading up with their 2nd round pick. They may even be able to get one just by siting at #34, as this is one of the best tackle classes in years. Guyton, Morgan Mims and others will be available in the 2nd half of the first round. And the first half of the 2st round is likely to be so offense laden that teams picking for need should start taking the top defenders in the 2nd half of the round, pushing very good Tackles and WR’s down the board further than they should fall based upon talent alone.

 

[Ivan]

I'm scared of drafting a qb bust and I love accumulating draft capital, but I think I'm going Maye or Daniels with the pick.

I really wish we could also get one of the top tackles in the draft, but its hard to see how that can happen if we go QB at 3.

There will always be some risk when drafting a QB, as Andrew Luck’s career demonstrated. But you are never going to become great without taking some chances, and in today’s NFL you aren’t going to win Lombardi’s using the old model of winning with defense and a strong run game. It’s not that you don’t need those things, especially a strong defense, but with today’s rules, and the ability of the best teams to put up points quickly and consistently you have to have a franchise QB to be able to win Super Bowls.

I think that when Draft night finally gets here Washington is going to take Daniels, and I don’t see Chicago taking Maye with the first pick, so it will be Maye who is still on the board when the Patriots pick, and they should absolutely take him, as he will give them a much better shot at turning into the Patriots into a real contender than what will be left at the position after him. And the people who think they can trade down and still get the QB they want are just talking out of their asses. The idea that you can give up your place in line, and every other QB needy team will just sit still and let you take the QB you want is sheer idiocy. Other teams need QB’s desperately too, and they will have done their homework and have similar draft value assigned to that player, and if they have to they will move up and get them, and if they don’t have to move up they will just sit there and take them, leaving you with nothing but the worst QB room in football for another season. Franchises whose offseason plans are based upon wishful thinking will always suck, because that isn’t a plan to get better, it’s just idiotic fanboy dreaming. If you are the Giants, and you have the same draft grade on JJ McCarthy that some Patriot’s fans believe the Patriots have on him then why would you pass on him at #6 when you aren’t going to keep Daniel Jones and his ****ty contract around for anything more than next season? The answer is that you aren’t, you are going to take him, and the same thing goes for the Falcons at #8. Atlanta has very good players at their skill positions, but no one to get them the ball, and they aren’t going to sit there and let the top QB’s pass them by, unless they know that those QB!s aren’t close to being worth the price they are paying for them. So the Patriots can either take the QB at 3, or consign themselves to having the worst QB’s in football again next season, to which the only upside will be that they will be picking top 5 again with a much worse QB class to pick from in 25.

 

[Ivan]

After the '21 QB debacle; Zach Wilson #2, Trey Lance #3, Justin Fields #11 and Jones #15 I am skeptical of any QB that is highly touted.
Would prefer to trade back and pick up some draft capital as there are so many positions to fill. Look at Brisset or other journeyman QB to tide us over until the Pats find a quality new QB who can play in the NFL..

So when and where are you going to find that QB if the future.? You won’t get them in free agency, and you are obviously opposed to taking one with a high pick. Which means your strategy is to take lower rated QB prospects and just hope one of them turns into a star. Once again, that isn’t a strategy to become good, it’s wishful thinking. If they want to become great again they are going to have to get a great QB, and you don’t get that by taking worse QB prospects. It’s like betting on the slower horse in a horse race because the faster horses are more likely to break a leg. The faster horse might break a leg, but they are also far more likely to actually win races.

 

[Ivan]

Imagine trading with Denver and still getting McCarthy and he ends up being a stud.

I just did that last night, right after I imagined that Jennifer Lawrence was going to wake me up with a happy ending this morning. And guess what? It worked. So much for following football, the future is really bright.

 

[KCSVEN]

Try and get the Charges(5) and the Cards (4) to outbib one another for our pick. Both these teams are drafting wide receivers and they both love MHJ. If the Cards bite we take what we can get while maintaining control of the draft and pick the QB or trade out again. You can burn the chart pick stuff this is a top #3 pick and the last highly rated QB.

Maybe, but if you take the Chargers pick, Cards will trade 4 to someone like the Falcons so you can't drop lower than the Cards. Even then, it's a gamble, since the Cards might give you a 3rd round pick at best because they know they are the only option if they know you want QB at #3 but then the Cards could turn around and get a bigger hall, still draft Nabors or Odunze at 6-8 and get future firsts.
Nabors and MHJ are not far apart, and you also have Bowers who is as highly rated at TE as MHJ is at WR, and Odunze is just a step below them. Charger and Cards have lots of options to get a receiver by trading down or just staying where they are.

If you like a QB you must take him at 3, playing games could burn you. If you like McCarthy over whomever is left at 3, go for it, but if you want Daniels or Maye take them at 3.

 

[Rob0729]

I don't know what the Pats would get for the #3 pick, but I say they trade it away unless they think the QB at #3 is absolutely going to be a stud. If they aren't confident and only draft him because you spend the #3 overall pick on a QB in a QB rich draft or some similar logic, it is stupid. It is still the third QB picked even if it is the #3 pick. Odds are one or two of those three will be a bust and the #3 pick has the best odds of it.

The bounty you can get for trading that pick could be huge with a lot of QB starving teams out there. It literally could be a trade that builds this team into a contender for 5-10 years if those picks are used right.

 

[Ivan]

I don't know what the Pats would get for the #3 pick, but I say they trade it away unless they think the QB at #3 is absolutely going to be a stud. If they aren't confident and only draft him because you spend the #3 overall pick on a QB in a QB rich draft or some similar logic, it is stupid. It is still the third QB picked even if it is the #3 pick. Odds are one or two of those three will be a bust and the #3 pick has the best odds of it.

The bounty you can get for trading that pick could be huge with a lot of QB starving teams out there. It literally could be a trade that builds this team into a contender for 5-10 years if those picks are used right.

Edited:

I’m really opposed to trading out of that pick, but if consensus in the war room is that they don’t believe in the 3rd QB then your best bet is trading down. But that’s only if they really don’t believe that QB can be a franchise QB.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

And the people who think they can trade down and still get the QB they want are just talking out of their asses. The idea that you can give up your place in line, and every other QB needy team will just sit still and let you take the QB you want is sheer idiocy. Franchises whose offseason plans are based upon wishful thinking will always suck, because that isn’t a plan to get better, it’s just idiotic fanboy dreaming.

Great rant, but QBs being graded differently by different teams happens all the time. Recently Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes were all #10 or lower. And not all teams are QB needy. Trading down for a younger QB that the team is sure will develop after sitting for a year, like Mahomes, Love, etc., is a great idea as long as the team's analysis is correct.

 

[KCSVEN]

The general consensus among NFL writers is what a great deal the Bears got in the trade with the Panthers.
However, they could have drafted Stroud, and gotten more for Fields in a trade last year. They would now would be all set at QB for the next decade and could build around the most important position in football.
Instead, they have to draft Williams, and if Williams is a solid pro, but not Stroud good, then you made a bad trade. He doesn't even have to bust, if Stroud continues to play like he did this year you have a perennial all-pro caliber QB, if Williams is not that then your trade was BAD. Praising the Chicago GM for that trade is a bit premature.

That's how important the QB is, and why any prospect you think is a potential true franchise QB can't be passed up for any trade offer, unless you already have a franchise QB. Of course, it then comes down to your ability to analyze QB prospects.

 

[Ivan]

Great rant, but QBs being graded differently by different teams happens all the time. Recently Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes were all #10 or lower. And not all teams are QB needy. Trading down for a younger QB that the team is sure will develop after sitting for a year, like Mahomes, Love, etc., is a great idea as long as the team's analysis is correct.

I agree with that, but that’s different than counting on every QB needy team having a different grade on them, which is what you are doing if you trade down past the other QB needy teams, or even those who you are still tentatively ahead of but could be willing to trade up in front of you.

 

[Ivan]

Great rant, but QBs being graded differently by different teams happens all the time. Recently Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes were all #10 or lower. And not all teams are QB needy. Trading down for a younger QB that the team is sure will develop after sitting for a year, like Mahomes, Love, etc., is a great idea as long as the team's analysis is correct.

Pretty much every draft situation comes with qualifications. I want a QB at #3, but if they go 1&2 and the Patriots really don’t believe in #3 then they have to look at the next option. When looking at their next option in terms of standing it appears to be Harrison, but then they have to look at whether Tackle is a bigger priority, and in the Tackle worth that pick. They also have to look at any trade offers, whether they are worth passing on Harrison or let’s say Alt? They also have to look at whether the trade offers allow them to then get a top WR or Tackle, and fill that position with another really good pick, while maintaining # 34 to add to those positions. Example-Arizona trades up to #3, and the Patriots get #4 and #27. Arizona gets Harrison, the Patriots get Nabors or Odunze, Ot Guyton at #27 and then a WR like Franklin or McConkey at #34. Or they could go Alt at #4, JPJ at #27, and the WR at # 34. Those would be good scenarios for them , but I wouldn’t want to trade down without 2 1sts in return. And that would still leave them with the worst QB’s in football, and if you don’t believe in the #3 QB in this draft then you would be drafting another QB that you don’t believe in after that. Bo Nix and Penix are never going to lead them to a Lombardi, and passing in a QBbat 3 to then turn around and take McCarthy at 4 or 6 makes zero sense to me. .

 

[Joey007]

I'm scared of drafting a qb bust and I love accumulating draft capital, but I think I'm going Maye or Daniels with the pick.

I really wish we could also get one of the top tackles in the draft, but its hard to see how that can happen if we go QB at 3.

I’m not sure why people are so scared to take a guy that might bust? It’s not like we’re giving up extra capital here.

I think it’s moreso scary when you give up multiple draft picks to move up for a guy who busts. If this guy doesn’t work out, we’ll likely be in a high pick situation again in 26-27 and can try again.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I agree with that, but that’s different than counting on every QB needy team having a different grade on them, which is what you are doing if you trade down past the other QB needy teams, or even those who you are still tentatively ahead of but could be willing to trade up in front of you.

Yup that is the mystery of the draft. If we take the risk with the Giants at #6, we get two more 2nd round picks which could be our new LT or RT and a WR #1. It is all a gamble.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Pretty much every draft situation comes with qualifications. I want a QB at #3, but if they go 1&2 and the Patriots really don’t believe in #3 then they have to look at the next option. When looking at their next option in terms of standing it appears to be Harrison, but then they have to look at whether Tackle is a bigger priority, and in the Tackle worth that pick. They also have to look at any trade offers, whether they are worth passing on Harrison or let’s say Alt? They also have to look at whether the trade offers allow them to then get a top WR or Tackle, and fill that position with another really good pick, while maintaining # 34 to add to those positions. Example-Arizona trades up to #3, and the Patriots get #4 and #27. Arizona gets Harrison, the Patriots get Nabors or Odunze, Ot Guyton at #27 and then a WR like Franklin or McConkey at #34. Or they could go Alt at #4, JPJ at #27, and the WR at # 34. Those would be good scenarios for them , but I wouldn’t want to trade down without 2 1sts in return. And that would still leave them with the worst QB’s in football, and if you don’t believe in the #3 QB in this draft then you would be drafting another QB that you don’t believe in after that. Bo Nix and Penix are never going to lead them to a Lombardi, and passing in a QBbat 3 to then turn around and take McCarthy at 4 or 6 makes zero sense to me. .

McCarthy is only barely 21 and if he sits out a year, works on his technique, and fills out, he might be the best prospect in this draft.

 

[Wozzy]

The Pat’s are a QB desperate team.

 

[DarrylS]

So when and where are you going to find that QB if the future.? You won’t get them in free agency, and you are obviously opposed to taking one with a high pick. Which means your strategy is to take lower rated QB prospects and just hope one of them turns into a star. Once again, that isn’t a strategy to become good, it’s wishful thinking. If they want to become great again they are going to have to get a great QB, and you don’t get that by taking worse QB prospects. It’s like betting on the slower horse in a horse race because the faster horses are more likely to break a leg. The faster horse might break a leg, but they are also far more likely to actually win races.

There were 4 fast horses in '21 and for the most part they have crapped the bed, did not say I would not do it, just saying I am skeptical. There many holes in the offense, my view is that more draft capital will help...
Consider Mahomes #10, Jackson #32, Hurts #53 and of course #12 and Purdy any of whom I would welcome to to the Pats..

 

[jmt57]

I understand the concerns that past history has shown that drafting a QB early is no sure thing. Just look at some of the top 10 QB draft picks of the past decade. 2020 was an outlier, and you are just as likely to get a Josh Rosen as you are to get a Patrick Mahomes.
2023: Bryce Young (1), C.J. Stroud (2), Anthony Richardson (4)
2022: none (Kenny Pickett, #20)
2021: Trevor Lawrence (1), Zach Wilson (2), Trey Lance (3), Justin Filds (11)
2020: Joe Burrow (1), Tua Tagovailoa (5), Justin Herbert (6)
2019: Kyler Murray (1), Daniel Jones (6) (and Dwayne Haskins at #15)
2018: Baker Mayfield (1), Sam Darnold (3), Josh Allen (7), Josh Rosen (10)
2017: Mitch Trubisky (2), Patrick Mahomes (10)
2016: Jared Goff (1), Carson Wentz (2)
2015: Jameis Winston (1), Marcus Mariota (2)


Here's the thing though. QB is the most important position on the team. Your chances with a QB selected at #3 is always going to be better than with a QB at #20, or #25, or #34.

Secondly, there is no guarantee that the 2nd tier QB that you are targeting will still be available at #34, or that you will be able to find a team willing to make a deal with you to trade up and get him.

Third, there is no guarantee that the 2nd tier (McCarthy, Nix) or 3rd tier (Pratt, Rattler) is ever going to be anything more than a career backup. A trade down has just as much of a chance of not being a sure thing, if not more so.

And fourth, the team is (hopefully) not going to have such an early draft pick again for a couple of decades. If you miss here, you will be right back looking to draft another starting QB in a few years - except now you will only be in the #8 - #15 range, making it nearly impossible to land that franchise QB.


In my opinion you would have to be thoroughly convinced with extreme concerns about whichever QB is still available at #3 to not take him there.

 

[Ivan]

McCarthy is only barely 21 and if he sits out a year, works on his technique, and fills out, he might be the best prospect in this draft.

That’s always possible, but I really wasn’t impressed with him when I watched him play. I think you want a college QB that dominates the opposition, not one who is being carried by his team. If they take him I’ll root for him to be successful, but I certainly won’t be counting on it.