Are We Improved As Of Now? SAT NIGHT

[TheBostonStraggler]

Certain positions look thin in the depth department but this is something you could say about virtually all teams. Overall I believe you are right and the 2013 Patriots are improved. Unfortunately that belief comes with some fine print at the bottom of the page.
On D, you have to believe this is improved. while I don't want to anoint the Patriots D the 85 Bears (they're not and won't be), I really like this starting group a lot when compared to the Patriots D of recent years. Dennard, Talib, McCourty, and ???? in the secondary with what might be the single most important non starter position on the team, the nickel DB, a dependable Arrington. A front 7 of Wilfork, Kelly, Chandler, Ninko, Spikes, Mayo, Jones. Again this is not the 85 Bears and they likely won't be, IMHO, a top 5 D (my guess is a 7 to 10 D ranking), this is a D that will keep other teams out of the end zone at a satisfactory rate. And even better, I think odds are favorable that this group over-performs these expectations than under-perform.

For the O, fortunately for us all TFB still looks like prime time TFB versus showing his peak playing days are obviously behind him (we all must in the back of our minds know this is coming -- fortunately it isn't here yet!!). The RB group looks as solid as it has been in a long time. Multiple guys are a real threat to 'take to the house' from a hand off and/or from a dump off pass along with some battering ram power. This is another group that have odds favorable they will over-perform expectations versus under-perform. Add to that we have no obvious weak link on the O-line along with some better competition.

Bottom line: The 2013 Patriots have the coach, coaching staff, star QB, the OL, the RB group to be highly competitive. Unfortunately there is a group left out of that list, the WR group. The uncertainty is soooo conspicuous for this group. WW gone. AH gone. Lloyd's 70+ receptions gone. Gronk's playing status is ??? along with a very real durability concern. 3 out of 6 of this year's group are rookies. The new #1, DA, has a very real durability concern. One of the few hold overs, JE, has a VERY real durability concern. The TE position has gone from being the envy of the NFL to currently, until Gronk returns, the worst TE group in the NFL. So when we start talking about "being improved" and we look at this group, how may IFs can be there while we still use the word "improved"? IF DA stays healthy, IF Gronk comes back and IF he can remain healthy, IF Kenbrel's performance in the preseason is what he can do in the regular season, IF JE can stay healthy, IF one other WR can step up and produce on a somewhat Lloyd like level (whether one of the new guys or a new signee over the next few days). Damn that's a lot of IFs/uncertainties......

 

[DarrylS]

I like what you said Straggler, however the stuff about Lloyd how can production on the field translate into a head case in the locker room.. there is a very good reason why no one has picked up this 70 catch receiver.

You also do not mention Develin, who may be a FB but assume some TE responsibilities...

The WR corps lacks experience, but from the couch they have a ton of talent, early on there will be mistakes but come November they should get into a groove...

From Reiss this morning, which is telling, and confirms the believe that this team is being rebuilt in front of us.. very difficult to keep winning as we have and rebuild at the same time, but somehow..

With all seven draft choices making the Patriots’ initial roster, plus five undrafted players, that initially gives the club 12 of its 51 spots filled by rookies. Add in six draft picks from last year still on the roster, plus 2012 undrafted running back Brandon Bolden, and that’s 19 players within their first two years in the NFL (35 percent of a 53-man roster). The Patriots have a solid veteran core, and trend older at some positions (defensive tackle, for example), but all in all this is a very young team.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Right now, I have serious reservations about the Defensive Line. I'm sure that will change once the Patriots have surveyed the landscape and bring in the appropriate replacements.

If I recall, Ted Washington was brought in via trade after cut down day in 2003 when the Pats found themselves in a similar situation. Maybe BB sees another clone out there for the pickings....

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I like what you said Straggler, however the stuff about Lloyd how can production on the field translate into a head case in the locker room.. there is a very good reason why no one has picked up this 70 catch receiver.

You also do not mention Develin, who may be a FB but assume some TE responsibilities...

The WR corps lacks experience, but from the couch they have a ton of talent, early on there will be mistakes but come November they should get into a groove...

From Reiss this morning, which is telling, and confirms the believe that this team is being rebuilt in front of us.. very difficult to keep winning as we have and rebuild at the same time, but somehow..

10 or more years -(3) Brady, Kelly, Vince

7-9th yr ( 7) Connolly, Gostkowski, Gregory, Mankins, Ninkovich, Svitek, Leon Washington

4-6th yr (15) Amendola, Arrington, Blount, Cole, Edelman, , Fletcher, Gronk, Hooman, Mayo, McCourty, Slater, Spikes, Talib, Vollmer, Wendell

3rd yr (6) Aiken, Cannon, Mallett, Ridley, Solder, Vereen

Rookie-2nd yr ( 20) Allen, Beauharnais, Bequette, Boldin, Boyce, Buchanan, Collins, Dennard, Develin, Dobson, Ebner, Harmon, Hightower, Jones, Kline, Ryan, Sudfeld, Thompkins, Vellano, Wilson.

Per this site, Pats are 11th youngest at 25.88. Noteworthy is that the only younger teams that are playoff worthy are Seattle and GB, the rest are perpetually 'rebuilding."

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/red_zone/Ranking-NFL-teams-by-age-Rams-the-youngest-Lions-are-the-oldest-Eagles-10th.html

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I saw 2 major areas of need with little addressing this offseason:
Safety opposite McCourty - 3rd round pick, Adrian Wilson who looked slow and ultimately wound up on the IR.
Outside CB depth - 3rd round pick

Unless one or both of these picks can contribute right away, this will likely bite us in the ass again. Disappointed more wasn't done.... if our pass rush hasn't improved insanely, we're once again extremely vulnerable with one injury.

 

[BTTA]

Serious question: which of the other high caliber teams can afford a couple of injuries to key people on offense or defense and not take a major step back? Are the Pats really different in this regard? The language we use to describe that situation here implies that something is wrong and should have been differently by team management, but I wonder if any team can legitimately have really good players behind each of its stars in the era of the cap.

Denver, Baltimore, Seattle, SF, etc....who has that kind of depth behind all of their key players?

 

[Brewskies]

It is virtually impossible for me to compare history of last season performance in 16 games against this season's Saturday night's players on paper. We have seen this seasons team under pressure from opposing team in live situations. It's easy to say that the QBs are the same, the TEs are weaker and WRs should be better but that's not under game time conditions.

I would sum it up this way, I think we have status quo as right now with much change coming in the next 7 days. We need some depth and we have holes to fill. After that it's about health, chemistry, running game, Brady's arm, receivers separation and hands and a good defense.

Lets Go Pats

 

[50-yard-line]

I think they're a better team, yeah.

OFFENSIVELY, there could be some hiccups.

RECEIVERS: I love the talent of the 4 kids, but rookies make mistakes. Even with that, they're DEEPER, and this is a place where you need to be deep. If you're relying on one or two guys (and guys who run routes in the same area of the field) as we've been, good defenses can step up against you much more easily, especially in the red zone. The last two playoffs, the Pats offense has been 5-20 between the hash marks.

Not this year.

RUNNING: Their running game is strong and deep, no concerns at all. Should be as good as last year, at least. Blount was a great pick-up.

OL: On paper looks as good as ever. Mankins healthy, Cannon developing.

QB: Looks like Tom to me.

TE: For all the handwringing, this all hinges on Gronk. Hernandez simply didn't do that much last year; there was more talk about him before the games than during the games. He had a decent AFCCG, but disappeared in the red zone.

OVERALL: Too many questions to say it's a "better" offense, I agree. I don't think they take too big a step backward, and again, it hinges on Gronk to go over the top in the playoffs. If he's there last year, I doubt the Pats go 1-4 in the red zone. I'm not too worried.

DEFENSIVELY: They're better on paper to start this season tahn they were last season, and I don't think it's that close.

DL: Kelly is a huge upgrade and gives them interior push, something that's killed this team for years. Chandler Jones should be better in his second year. They need depth, but I see better out there than Deaderick right now.

LB: The biggest improvement here is a year together. Hightower had a decent rookie season, but he looks like a much better player than he showed last year. LBs and Secondary improve when the unit has reps together. They play off each other. This is a strong LB unit, and with another year under their belts, BB can stop playing so much vanilla.

DB: McCourty is where he belongs at FS, and the starting three of Talib, Arrington and Dennard are better than what they started with last year. And the starting SS is better/the same as last year.

Bottom line, this unit should be able to do more things up front and so should get a lot more pressure than last year, and that will make the DBs look better.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Hard to see a downgrade, other than maybe at punter. Ghost wasn't great last year - he should do better. Leon is a better KR than they've had in years.

The downside to it all is that they have a tough schedule.

11-5 looks about right, maybe even 10-6, but they win the AFC East and should be better suited for a run in the playoffs than last year. As with every team, after a certain level, it all depends on health.

 

[zoostation]

Very thoughtful post ...........

But this is a reach.

TE LIKELY ONLY A SMALL STEP BACKWARD
After all, Hernandex was injured for much of 2012.
out Hernandez, Fells
in Sudfeld

As much as we despise what AH stood for he was an enormous mismatch problem for every defense in the NFL. And tho he was injured much of 2012, between he and Gronk, one of the 2 managed to play every week. It doesn't look like that will be the case this year.

Domino effect too. Amendola might have had 100 catches with AH on the field. Still could but more difficult when LB's don't have to key on AH in the middle.

 

[JR4]

Call me Homer Guy.

Defense Imporved : I see they could allow 17 poits or less a game.

Offense Improve: won't go into reasons.

As for prediction

I think 11-5 is too conservative.

If no major injuries:

I see PATS sweeping their division.

There are 6 games that I feel are critical

3 early season games: Falcons, Bengals and Saints (1-2 result )

3 late season games ( Denver, Texans and Ravens (2-1 result )

Could say one unexpected loss from other game they should win
but I say they win all those ( homer prerogative)

So 13-3 prediction is my guess but it could be better.

 

[goheels22002]

This team makes me nervous, in a 2002 sort of way. 10 rookies (correct?) as the key backups gives me the willies. I think the punter will be fine, but Harmon and Logan as the first guys up in the secondary should the starters go down makes me queasy.

That 2002 team was loaded with JAGs on the second team and was young at receiver - Branch and Givens were rookies. Fresh off a miracle Super Bowl, that team experienced some injuries and sleep-walked through the middle of the season that led to a mediocre 9-7.

Solid contributors like Stephen Neal, Otis Smith, Matt Chatham, and Daniel Graham went on IR and lack of depth hurt. Ty Law and Lawyer Milloy weren't enough to make the secondary dangerous. Tebucky Jones had a crappy season.

2002 New England Patriots season - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I must say that I love the running back situation for 2013. It feels like this team could be set up to use the pass to set up the run, and when needed, take the air out of the ball with more smash-mouth drives to give the defense time off the field.

 

[fgssand]

We have higher ceilings and lower basements. With a few key injuries we will be six feet under.

That's how it is for all teams.....it's a game of attrition.

Teams that are healthiest going into the playoffs and remain that way throughout, win superbowls.

A healthy Gronk would have meant a Super Bowl victory a couple of years ago and, even last year, a healthy Gronk and Talib very well may have got us to the Super Bowl.

But, in this entire thread I am surprised it wasn't stressed, the biggest edge we have is a healthy TOM BRADY.....no more need be said.

 

[mgteich]

Another approach on the defense

DEFENSIVE STARTERS - much improved
1) We should see improvement from last year's 3 rookies.
2) We should see improvement at safety with McCourty and Gregory bring together from the beginning, with McCourty now having some experience at the position. Of course, we hoped for more improvement at this position.
3) Kelly is a huge improvement over Love.
4) The other half (including our nickel) back are the same as last year.
5) The obvious issue is health, as it always is.

DEFENSIVE BACKUPS - about the same, perhaps a tad worse until we add the JAGs.
1) We've lost Cunningham who most wanted to cut anyway,
2) We've lost useless Scott, Deaderick, Moore and Chung.
3) We've added Collins, Buchanan, Ryan, Vellano, Harmon and Beauharnais.
4) Fletcher is back.
5) We'll add a JAG DL or two in the next couple of weeks.
6) Bequette and T Wilson have had a year of experience.

 

[Deus Irae]

Are We Improved As Of Now? SAT NIGHT

No

...........

 

[mb6592]

Are We Improved As Of Now? additions are unlikely to be significant. We can only HOPE for a significant addition or two.

No

...........

Hell, No. Just the safeties alone problem promisies a long and frustrating repeat of our recent defenses woes. God forbid Talib or Dennard goes down for any length of time. This defense will, once again, cause many and varied products to be consumed. The problem with this team (and fan base evaluations) is that Brady masks so much. Place half or even 2/3 of the other NFL QB's on this team and reevaluate. RB's, 1st team DL, Mayo and Gronk (if he can stay healthy) do not a great team make.

 

[mb6592]

Personally I'm not really worried or care to make comparisons from one year to another. I do think that the overall goal is to field a highly competitive team, and that has certainly been achieved.

The weaknesses vs the opposition's WR3, TE, and RB are our biggest worries, and with the choices of Collins, Harmon, Ryan, and a return to health from Fletcher that has hopefully been addressed. In the meantime we should have the advantage of being able to play a more attacking man coverage scheme similar to the one that was used down the stretch run of the past 2 seasons. Hopefully this can add to more sacks and hurries that we've all hoped for lately.

McCourty, Dennard, Talib, and even Arrington in their more natural spots right from the start should help. It sure would have been nice to have improved the safety position opposite McCourty. Sadly, that did not work out, but I do have a better feeling about the secondary as a whole than in the past.

The offense should continue to produce with a commitment to running the ball and having the same kind of passing attack--and I don't really care who is in there. Amendola is very good as long as he stays healthy, and personally I don't consider a freak collarbone injury and an elbow injury to be the nagging kind of worries. Maybe he does miss a handful of games, but he should still offer us a nice weapon that may end up surprising some people here. I do feel that an upgrade over LLyod may be achieved, and an upgrade over Branch has already been achieved.

Belichick has done a tremendous job of continuing to build a competitive team for the present without sacrificing the future. Last I heard we had approx. 11 million dollars worth of cap room still that will once again put us in position to make some moves next offseason, along with another crop of draft picks that will offer more of a full slate as opposed to this season.

Excellent post. I agree, we will be competitive - thank God for Brady and Belichick.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Hell, No. Just the safeties alone problem promisies a long and frustrating repeat of our recent defenses woes. God forbid Talib or Dennard goes down for any length of time. This defense will, once again, cause much various products to be consumed. The problem with team (and fan base) is that Brady masks so much. Take half or even 2/3 of the other NFL QB's and reevaluate this team. RB's, 1st team DL, Mayo and Gronk (if he can stay healthy) do not a great team make.

Hell yes.

I love guys who say the exact same young players are worse than they were last season. Especially when several were only moved to their present positions in mid season,last year. Dennard may go to Jail for three weeks, but he didn't play last year until Game 10. You may say that MCourty will be worse, but I doubt it when he was moved to Safety mid-season, with no experience there.

You may complain that Gronk might miss 3 games, but he missed more than that last season.

You may be a perpetual pessimist but a bald statement like that "Hell No", makes no sense.

 

[mgteich]

Another approach to the Offense

OFFENSE - STARTERS
Obviously, the issue is how well the 4 rookie receivers play.

1) The entire OL is back and healthy.
2) Our 2 RB's are back and are likely improved.
3) We have 3 new starting receivers (WR and TE), presuming that Gronkowski starts.

OFFENSE - BACKUPS
We've added Blount, Devlin and Svitek. We've lost Woodhead and Thomas. This is a net negative.

1) Cannon and Svitek are starting quality backups. Belichick is currently trying out the backup to the backup at C.
2) Blount replaced Woodhead. That must be a negative.
3) We've added a dedicated H-back/FB. That's a plus.
4) Belichick chose Hooman over Fells, no biggie.

 

[mb6592]

Hell yes.

I love guys who say the exact same young players are worse than they were last season. Especially when several were only moved to their present positions in mid season,last year. Dennard may go to Jail for three weeks, but he didn't play last year until Game 10. You may say that MCourty will be worse, but I doubt it when he was moved to Safety mid-season, with no experience there.

You may complain that Gronk might miss 3 games, but he missed more than that last season.

You may be a perpetual pessimist but a bald statement like that "Hell No", makes no sense.

No one said anything about young guys getting worse, nor can you guarantee significant improvement - there are too many recent examples of that not being the case. Futhermare, if you don't see the mess that is the safety position (outside of McCourty) then I would suggest it's your optics that need to be re-evaluated. Re-read my post, nothing I wrote is really controversial, other than I didn't stress that if the worlds align just perfectly (i.e. no injuries, rookies and UDFAs work out, 2nd year players improve significantly...) we will be a top 5-10 defense.

 

[Patriot Missile]

In some ways we are stronger. I like what I see out of Kelly which improves Wilfork all that much more. Don't like the depth.

Cb and Fs are strong. The depth at cb is shaky and the other safety position is a disaster. Mind as well just throw another cb or lb out there.

Lbs are the meat and potatoes of this team with the Des looking solid as well. This should help the backfield if they perform well.

I love what I see out of the wr position so far and Sudfeld could be very good at TE. Gronk will be a beast again.

Rbs should improve even more with quality depth and expect a larger role with Vereen this year.

Tom is goat. No worries there. Offensive line I think will be ok. Hoping for consistency there.

Injuries will always be the key.