Taking Maye at 3 is really risky and could set up the Patriots for an epic failure. This is a great year for OL and WRs (and QBs also). If the Patriots somehow can overrule Bob Kraft and trade back, they would be able to take advantage of this bounty and restock in areas of need.
Fred, you miss the critical point; THIS draft is rare that it has 3 QB's that are worth taking with a top 3 pick. All you can do when drafting ANY player, but QB's in particular, is do your best to assess talent and character. No matter how good a player is in year one, the success of that player ultimately is going to depend on how he develops moving forward.
THIS draft has 3 (or more) QB's that have BOTH innate talent and the character to develop into all pro QB. That doesn't mean they all WILL be all pros, but the ability is there. Now since an offense starts with the QB, there is no time better to start than right NOW. Next year you never know where you will draft and in what is seen as a weaker QB class, it is likely that. if we wait, the guys left on the board will have even MORE questions than Maye or Daniels.
Narratives are all over the place, but I cannot see a faster way forward than to pick one of these 3 guys. No guarantees, of course, but more chances for success.
As for the OL, you CAN build a very solid OL with no names that develop into stars. Want to try and name all the "all stars" on the OL from 2001-2003. Get an OT in the 2 or 3rd, and coach and scheme the hell out of the guys you got.
Dropping down to pick up the elusive #1 WR is more of a crap shoot than QB. First even if you get one that EVENTUALLY becomes elite, most take a year or two to become that.
Finally I am reminded of something I've read about by a draft guru that I always think about this time of year. He postulates that in every draft there are 8-12 true talents in the draft. Guys who COULD become one of those top 5% kind of players. Then from there down to around 40 are a second group, say 1A kind of players. These are guys you expect to be starters and occasionally be an all pro every now and again. And so forth moving down. For that reason I CANNOT see not getting the QB at 3 instead taking say 2 second tier players and a 2nd tier player next year from the Vikes
If the Patriots do not trade back, they will miss out on some bluechip OL and WR picks and take a huge gamble on an untested QB, a QB that could be ruined with no supporting cast. I vote for trading back and taking JJ plus a LT and some WRs.
Too much of a risk to trade down and NOT get a great QB. By all accounts McCarthy isn't going to be there at 11. Now you are looking at maybe taking Pennix at 23....you HOPE.
BTW- A quick questions that is kind of off topic about Pennix. IF he didn't have all the injury issues his first 4 years in college, and you analyzed him solely on his two HEALTHY seasons at UW. Would he be a top 5 pick?
Note: In the interest of full disclosure, I also have a less than honorable reason for wishing that the Patriots trade back; a trade back will make Thursday night way more fun.