How To Blow the 2024 Draft

[Sciz]

Good point, I hadn't even thought about that; Manziel was just a name that came to mind as an infamous draft bust.
That Texas A&M offense was explosive and fun to watch. In retrospect the warning signs about Manziel should not have been overlooked.

On the surface yes, this could be an argument against Daniels; but the same logic could be applied to other 2024 draft prospects as well.
So out of curiosity I decided to compare the top QB prospects (with other teammate prospects) in this year's draft.

Maye and Spencer Rattler had the least help, followed by Caleb Williams.
While Daniels had a fine supporting cast, McCarthy had the best team overall.
Penix had the most quality offensive talent around him.


The # below is a consensus Big Board ranking as of this time, for the top 250 prospects.
Bold = Top 250 offensive skill player and italics = Top 250 defensive player.


#4. QB Jayden Daniels
Other LSU players:
#5. WR Malik Nabers
#18 WR Brian Thomas Jr.
#67 DL Maason Smith
#110 DL Mekhi Wingo
#191 DL Jordan Jefferson
#222 C Charles Turner III

Daniels’ left tackle is going in the first round next year, too. This “way too early” mock has him at #2 overall.

https://atozsports.com/nfl-draft/travis-may-2025-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-features-best-returning-college-football-stars-in-the-nation/

 

[Ivan]

Let's be clear. You expect us to be a 3-4 win team unless we acquire a franchise QB. So, you think that a team led by Brissette or whoever is left will win 3-4 wins for 2024 and 2025 and the forseeable future?

Mg, I’m more than happy to answer any questions you have, but they can’t be as long as War and Peace.

My point on getting a franchise QB is that they won’t win Championships without one. And the only way they will get one is with a pretty high 1st round draft pick. And since next year’s QB class is supposed to completely suck the next really good shot at one will be 26’and that would only be if they had another really good first round pick, in other words if they still really suck.

Can they be better than a really sucky team without a franchise QB? Absolutely. But the problem eiyh that is that you end up in the no man’s land that teams like the Patriots and Steelers tend to be in when they aren’t contenders. Good enough to be a borderline playoff team, and never bad enough to get the really good pick to obtain your franchise up QB, unless you want to turn around and give that same “ haul” that teams get when they trade out of the top 3-4 picks in the draft. Which is one of the reason’s you only trade out of that pick when you think the QB’s available don’t have franchise QB ceiling.

So, to get back to this team. I think they have a very good defense, one they can contend with if they do really good job fixing the offense.

I think the problems on offense are not as dire as many here believe they are. And I think they could fix most of them, but not all of them this offseason, especially if they choose to only seriously address 2 of them. IMO they have 3 serious problems on offense. No franchise QB. Big holes on the offensive line, and no big time receivers.

If they draft a franchise QB at 3 and hit on them then that problem is fixed. It may take a year or two fort hem to fully develop, but if they get it right they are set for the foreseeable future.

OL They can radically improve their OL if they choose to focus on that in the draft, and set aside WR until day 3. If Jackson Powers -Johnson falls to 34, which isn’t that likely, they could draft him, and then trade up for Sunmuataia, Paul, or another Tackle in the 2nd. They could do the same by taking Barton at Center and making the same trade up. This would fix both Center and OT if they hit on both. Andrews is still serviceable, but this would give them his long term replacement.

They could do the same at WR by taking two of them on on Day 2, as there will be really good prospects that could dramatically improve their WR room if they go that route.

The other option is the most popular from what I can tell, and also makes a lot of sense. Draft the QB at 3, take a WR or OT at 34, then take whichever position ( OT or WR) that wasn’t addressed at 34. In this case the best approach is to go with the best pick available. E.g.. if Adonai Mitchell is there at 34 then take him, and go after an OT with the 3rd pick, or take Guyton or Paul at 34, possibly even Sumuataia, and then go WR with the 3rd pick.

Any of the approaches seriously addresses their major issues, and they could finish the work at them next year if they hit on them.

The Running back room is in pretty good shape. TE is OK. Both could be improved next year if they want to address them, or with day 3 picks.

If they miss on these picks they could still suck. Or they could improve a little and be one of those middling teams that battles to get into the playoffs but never seriously contends, and never has a high enough pick to get a really good QB without giving up 3 first rounders to get one.

So that’s my position on this team and their future. I know you are smart enough to know when I’m using hyperbole, and what I’m saying, so I’m not interested in debating that. If you have any questions about the above feel free to ask them and I’ll answer.

My last point is this. Is it possible to get a franchise QB without a high first round pick? Yes, but it’s also highly unlikely, so I believe that if you see a QB with true franchise potential then you don’t **** around with that pick, you take them. Bring a mediocre team is easy, being a championship team takes a lot of work and smart decisions, and they need to make them right now if they want any more Lombardi’s anytime soon.

 

[Ivan]

Good point, I hadn't even thought about that; Manziel was just a name that came to mind as an infamous draft bust.
That Texas A&M offense was explosive and fun to watch. In retrospect the warning signs about Manziel should not have been overlooked.

On the surface yes, this could be an argument against Daniels; but the same logic could be applied to other 2024 draft prospects as well.
So out of curiosity I decided to compare the top QB prospects (with other teammate prospects) in this year's draft.

Maye and Spencer Rattler had the least help, followed by Caleb Williams.
While Daniels had a fine supporting cast, McCarthy had the best team overall.
Penix had the most quality offensive talent around him.


The # below is a consensus Big Board ranking as of this time, for the top 250 prospects.
Bold = Top 250 offensive skill player and italics = Top 250 defensive player.


#1. QB Caleb Williams
Other USC players:
#78 S Calen Bullock
#103 RB MarShawn Lloyd
#111 WR Brendan Rice
#180 WR Tahj Washington


#2. QB Drake Maye
Other North Carolina players:
#74 WR Devontez Walker
#94 LB Cedric Gray


#4. QB Jayden Daniels
Other LSU players:
#5. WR Malik Nabers
#18 WR Brian Thomas Jr.
#67 DL Maason Smith
#110 DL Mekhi Wingo
#191 DL Jordan Jefferson
#222 C Charles Turner III


#6. QB JJ McCarthy
Other Michigan players:
#48 WR Roman Wilson
#50 DL Kris Jenkins
#51 CB Mike Sainristill
#53 LB Junior Colson
#73 RB Blake Corum
#99 G Zak Zinter
#148 TE AJ Barner
#169 WR Cornelius Johnson
#199 C Drake Nugent
#209 ED Braiden McGregor
#217 G Trevor Keegan
#220 ED Jaylen Harrell
#223 LB Michael Barrett
#241 G LaDarius Henderson


#31 QB Michael Penix Jr
Other Washington players:
#7. WR Rome Odunze
#19 OT Troy Fautanu
#62 WR Ja'Lynn Polk
#65 ED Bralen Trice
#82 WR Jalen McMillan
#112 OT Roger Rosengarten
#134 LB Edefuan Ulofoshio
#184 RB Dillon Johnson
#188 S Dominique Hampton
#219 ED Zion Tupuola-Fetui
#236 TE Devin Culp


#32 QB Bo Nix
Other Oregon players:
#25 C Jackson Powers-Johnson
#38 WR Troy Franklin
#75 ED Brandon Dorluss
#92 CB Khyree Jackson
#114 RB Mar'Keise Irving


#90 QB Spencer Rattler
Other South Carolina players:
#58 WR Xavier Legette

Picking a franchise QB is difficult. Spotting a bust isn’t. I have made many mistakes about draft picks over the years, but knowing that Johnny Manxiel was going to suck in the NFL wasn’t one of them. You could smell that 3,000 miles away. He was the most immature QB prospect I have ever seen. You can get away with being a reckless moron in college if you have athletic ability, you can’t in the pro’s. And no one should compare Daniels and Manziel. Daniels is a mature, hardworking, well respected player who can lead a team, Manzirl was the polar opposite. The only comparison is that both can run with the ball, it ends there.

 

[1960Pats]

Exactly. Great QBs can be had late in the draft. No need to force one into the #3 pick.

That's why a trade back could be a good option.

 

[1960Pats]

Mg, I’m more than happy to answer any questions you have, but they can’t be as long as War and Peace.

My point on getting a franchise QB is that they won’t win Championships without one. And the only way they will get one is with a pretty high 1st round draft pick. And since next year’s QB class is supposed to completely suck the next really good shot at one will be 26’and that would only be if they had another really good first round pick, in other words if they still really suck.

This is the part that get's you going in the wrong direction. A pretty high 1st round pick is not the only way to get a QB. It actually only works about a third of the time.

For all anyone knows there could be 3 top QBs in this draft or none. We'll only get that answer after we see them play for a couple of years.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

You seem woefully unaware that this year's NFC conference champion QB, who was #5 in MVP voting, was selected in the 7th round.

Has Purdy established himself as "great quarterback"? He's had one good full season. That's like calling Mac Jones a "good quarterback" because of his first season. No, we need a bigger body of work for Purdy.

If he does it for 3 more seasons I'll allow it, and add him to the list that currently only has Tom Brady. Try again: your first stab at it seems "woefully" inadequate.

 

[XLIX]

That's why a trade back could be a good option.

Or a better option is to take a generational WR with the pick we have who will be available to us.

WR is rapidly becoming the 2nd most important position in football (if it isn't already). We can grab a guy who is reasonably expected to be a #1 WR for the next decade.

 

[XLIX]

Has Purdy established himself as "great quarterback"? He's had one good full season. That's like calling Mac Jones a "good quarterback" because of his first season. No, we need a bigger body of work for Purdy.

If you are going to use that criteria, then there is only one great QB in the NFL: Patrick Mahomes.

You're setting an impossible standard and saying no late-round QB could ever match that standard. Well, don't hold your breath that the 1st rounders meet that standard either.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Brock Purdy.

And this stat is a silly one -?teams who need QBs, or even have starters aging out, take their shots in the early rounds. Most guys drafted after round two or three will be lucky to even get in a game, let alone develop the experience needed to grow.

They don't see the field because they don't have enough talent, as a rule. If they did, like Kirk Cousins (rd 4), they eventually find a starting job. Dak Prescott (rd 4) is another example. But I don't consider either of them as "great quarterbacks". And the jury is still out on Brock Purdy, otherwise we'd have considered Mac Jones a good quarterback after season one.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Or a better option is to take a generational WR with the pick we have who will be available to us.

WR is rapidly becoming the 2nd most important position in football (if it isn't already). We can grab a guy who is reasonably expected to be a #1 WR for the next decade.

************, everyone who continues to advocate for MHJ at 3 needs to STFU. It’s
NOT GOING TO HAPPEN….because it is a terrible idea for a team with such desperate needs at quarterback and OT and with elite options at both positions. They got lucky to suck in a year with multiple top 5 caliber QBs. They aren’t going to go full ****** and take a WR. MHJ is an outstanding prospect but he is not at the level of Moss or Megatron or even Julio. He lacks the physicality that made those three guys true generational talents. WR isn’t nearly as important as LT, and the latter is a much more difficult position to fill.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

If you are going to use that criteria, then there is only one great QB in the NFL: Patrick Mahomes.

You're setting an impossible standard and saying no late-round QB could ever match that standard. Well, don't hold your breath that the 1st rounders meet that standard either.

What standard is that? That you have to be great for more than one year? Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, etc. You're not even being serious now. The standard is greatness, and you set the standard, and you said you can find greatness in the late rounds. Now you want to change the definition of greatness for late round picks? If you're going to keep moving the goalposts we might as well bring this to a close.

 

[XLIX]

************, everyone who continues to advocate for MHJ at 3 needs to STFU.

I'll advocate for whomever I want to and if you don't like it, then please go ahead and engage in the physical act of love with the woman who birthed you.

 

[XLIX]

What standard is that? That you have to be great for more than one year? Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, etc. You're not even being serious now. The standard is greatness, and you set the standard, and you said you can find greatness in the late rounds. Now you want to change the definition of greatness for late round picks? If you're going to keep moving the goalposts we might as well bring this to a close.

I am not moving the goal posts, we simply have a fundamental difference of opinion on what constitutes "great" as it relates to discussing active quarterbacks.

You asked for an example. I gave you one. Your response was "no, he doesn't count, give me another one." I also consider Dak Prescott, drafted in the 4th round, to be a great active QB. But let me guess, he doesn't count either, right?

 

[Wozzy]

WR is rapidly becoming the 2nd most important position in football (if it isn't already). We can grab a guy who is reasonably expected to be a #1 WR for the next decade.

lol The Chiefs just won back to back championships with a crew of #2 and #3 WR's by the "weaponz" crowd's definition.... this ^ is a made up fact.

 

[XLIX]

lol The Chiefs just won back to back championships with a crew of #2 and #3 WR's by the "weaponz" crowd's definition.... this ^ is a made up fact.

You conveniently left out the fact that they have arguably the greatest receiving TE of all time plus the 2nd best QB in the NFL over the past quarter century. That isn't exactly a strategy you can just go out and duplicate.

If we had Mahomes and Kelce, I would be pushing to draft Alt. Meanwhile, for teams without those luxuries, having a solid corps of WR's has been a great indicator of success.

 

[Wozzy]

You conveniently left out the fact that they have arguably the greatest receiving TE of all time plus the 2nd best QB in the NFL over the past quarter century. That isn't exactly a strategy you can just go out and duplicate.

For teams without those luxuries, having a solid corps of WR's has been a great indicator of success.

Kelce is a TE... make up your mind.

 

[XLIX]

Kelce is a TE... make up your mind.

What part of "they have arguably the greatest receiving TE of all time" did you not understand?

 

[Wozzy]

What part of "they have arguably the greatest receiving TE of all time" did you not understand?

The Chiefs traded away the best WR in the NFL, then went on to win two more rings. It's not the most important position in football after QB.

The Chiefs won a championship last year by having the best defense and their special teams swung the game in their favor. The Chiefs offense couldn't even engineer a single TD scoring drive in regulation.

The 2nd most important player on the Chiefs is Chris Jones. When Kelce got hurt earlier, their talented #2 TE Noah Gray stepped in the team didn't skip a beat.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

I am not moving the goal posts, we simply have a fundamental difference of opinion on what constitutes "great" as it relates to discussing active quarterbacks.

You asked for an example. I gave you one. Your response was "no, he doesn't count, give me another one." I also consider Dak Prescott, drafted in the 4th round, to be a great active QB. But let me guess, he doesn't count either, right?

You think Dak Prescott is a great QB? He's a good QB who hasn't done much in the playoffs (hasn't even reached the NFC championship game). Besides, he's round 4, which is the middle round, not late. Remember you claimed that great QBs could be found in "later rounds."

 

[moosekill]

Or a better option is to take a generational WR with the pick we have who will be available to us.

WR is rapidly becoming the 2nd most important position in football (if it isn't already). We can grab a guy who is reasonably expected to be a #1 WR for the next decade.

People continuously spout this, but then we look at the team that won the superbowl who had crappy wr's and say, well maybe this isn't true. People have been saying wr's are incredible valuable for as long as I have been following football, still doesn't seem to be true though.