Idle thoughts - The "cracks in the armor" edition.

[patfanken]

Never has an 8-0 team looked so shaky. Right? Hasn't this been the most consistent theme of the last month. Another double digit win AND a cover, yet the first things that will come out of our heads will be criticisms of our team, with the end result being anxiety, fear, trepidation, AND @Joker pulling his hair out and railing about the fear mongers....and probably rightfully so. So lets begin the exercise and get started.

1. Some Cleveland Brown talk - This team is almost the polar OPPOSITE of our Pats. Never has a team seemingly done so little with so much talent. And it's not like this was the first game this season that they self-destructed so abysmally. . Nor is there a team that so justly DESERVES that 2-5 record more than the team we played tonight. Their long suffering and infinitely loyal fans should be outraged.

That SHOULD have been a highly competitive game between 2 talented teams, but it wasn't mostly because of 3 plays in the first quarter, and more than a DOZEN freakin' STUPID penalties that sabotaged what was left of the Cleveland Offense throughout the game.. Cleveland has MORE than enough talent on offense AND defense to be able to keep their team in every game they play.. But the fact is, the "generosity" shown by Cleveland tonight has been shown to 3 or 4 OTHER teams this season, as they continue to be the team that shows the rest of the league how to LOSE, just as the Pats are the team that shows the league how to win.

BTW- the immediate blame will fall on Freddie Kitchens, but the fault isn't all his. The REAL blame should fall on the people who hired him to a job they had NO right to expect him to be successful at. It is just TOO hard a job to have thought he could go from being in charge of 4 guys about a year ago and running a team now.

The purpose of all this Browns talk is to point out that the good news is we beat a very talented football team tonight. The bad news is we needed a LOT of that generosity to do it so convincingly again. I don't think the Ravens will have as much talent, but they WILL be a better opponent in a tough road game.

2. General Offensive thoughts - There were a LOT of good reasons why the offense still didn't look like what we wanted it to look like. But just like last week, and the week before that, it took a few more baby steps in the right direction. That was a good defense who got their 2 high pick CB's back to go along with an excellent front 7. So the fact we made some small progress despite missing 3/5ths of our OL, the TE's still need GPS to get to the stadium, and we got 36 snaps out of Sanu after only 3 practices.

As long as keep seeing those baby steps going forward, I'm fine with the offense where it is right now. Help is coming. Wynn and Mason should both be ready after the bye. Sanu and the TE's will be better prepared to contribute. While getting Rex back should add some depth and more flexibility to the running attack.

Finally - I would have liked to see more picks, slants, and crossers included in the pass routes. Cleveland ran a lot of man tonight and we weren't running much to threaten that.

3. QB- Brady made a BUNCH of really good throws tonight. The ones to Watson, Dorsett and the 2 TD passes to Edelman come immediately to mind. But there were a bunch of others that weren't even close. Maybe it was the rain. Maybe it was the rush. I don't know, but there were way too many errant throws tonight, which contributed to a surprising 55% completion rate. Again, not sure why that was. Could be the dislocation at the WR and TE positions, but some just looked like bad throws

4. RB- Thought the run game did better tonight. A lot of worst plays came when the Browns were stacking the LOS at the end of the game and we were just running clock. Still not seeing much in the way of holes late in the game.

I think that it is pretty clear that we don't win the Superbowl without Sony's playoff run, but it's also pretty apparent which Georgia RB we should have taken. Bigger, stronger, more explosive. It wasn't a bad choice, just not the BEST one.

5. OL - The fact that Ferentz was the choice to replace Mason tonight really disappointed me. Elumanour by all reports, is by far the better prospect, so I figured he's be the one to get the nod in Mason's absence. The fact that he wasn't makes me wonder about the 3 trades we made for Cunningham, Elumanour, and the other guy we cut a couple of weeks ago, and just what we got for what we gave away. If Elumanour couldn't beat out Karras, who was getting hammered by guys who were playing for a chance to make it in the XFL, what's going on with our pro scouting department, and dare I say....Dante? It's a nice story that the future HC of Iowa got his first start of his career, but I GOT to think we can do better. Right?

The GDT was all over Newhouse, but it is so hard to tell (at least for me) who is or is not screwing up from the TV feed. We shall see. By Wednesday Kyed, Bedard, and Howe, etc will have their own breakdowns
for us to discuss.

6. Receivers - Nothing new here to see. One really nice over route for Sanu gives hope for the future. Meyers got what was given. Jules was OK. Watson gave us TE hope, and Dorsett did what he does. It added up to 260 yds if you include the RB's and how can we not.

7. General defensive thoughts - Bell got some decent yardage, and now Chubb added 140 more. Are we seeing a "blueprint" being issued here? Are there "cracks in the wall"? I don't know if what we saw was some kind of defensive trade off to protect against "the long ball" , but it sure didn't look good and it isn't going to make people feel better since the NEXT team we play leads the league in rushing. But one thing for certain, how we plan on stopping the Raven running game SHOULD be the major topic of the upcoming week.

I LOVE all the turnovers, but the unfortunately thing about TO's is that it is hard to count on them. Defenses that rely on them (like say the 2011 D) Can find themselves on the wrong end of a score, when they don't come. Fortunately I think the depth of talent across all 3 levels of THIS defense is good enough to carry us over, even when the ball DOESN'T bounce our way.

8. Front 7 - Good tackling can cure a lot of ills. Good tackling would have cut Chubb's rush yardage by about half. The weather might have been a factor in the first half, but not as much in the 2nd as the rain died down. I saw one play where Jaime Collins was very late getting to a gap which made me wonder if he had fallen back into the guessing game again. Though Collins had a MOSTER game with 13 tackles and a sack and a half. Guy had ANOTHER great game helping others look good. I really hope he gets at least some recognition for the job he does.

Butler had 2 more sacks. What's up with him. I thought he looked slow in TC and wondered if he was going to be here, given how good Cowart looked. He's having a career year this season.. BTW- anyone else think that Roberts and Bentley were no shows last night?

9. Secondary - I thought they were very good again last night. I liked the fact there weren't any flags on Jackson. I thought the coverage was good on OBJ and Landry. What was frustrating on the TD pass was that Hightower actually got to his man. He just didn't see the ball in time to make a play on it. I think our DB's do an EXCELLENT job of that for the most part. Hightower needs more work at it.

10. ST's - So I guess its time we can get back to the paranoia about the kicker again. That was a nice one week respite, but it's OVER! Feel free to panic. Though I have to admit I kind of like the idea of going for it all the time when the kick is longer than 40 yds.

11. General League talk - Carolina has been a pretty good team the last month and SF simply took them apart. I won't mind a bit if they get rated #1 in all the power rankings. It will help cement our place as an underdog.

b. Lots of good games coming up. The Eagles have resurrected their season in Buffalo. The Chiefs gave the Packers everything they wanted without Mahomes, The Cowboys are still the beasts of the NFCE and have a DE who might be carrying a grudge. The aforementioned Ravens, and very dangerous Texans are all on the immediate schedule. So while the first 8 could be dismissed by the naysayers, the next SIX cannot.

c. I wonder if we should start a pool over which mediot will think its time to break the news to us that Tom Brady has his house on the market and will be a FA next season.

See you all on the rewatch thread and welcome back K'Neal Harry. It's about f*cking time. And get your ass on the practice field bright and early on Tuesday, Issaiah Wynn.

 

[Patstastic]

-The team shouldn't have to go for it on every kick that is 40 yards or more. That increases the likelihood of not getting points. Against great teams that will come back to haunt them. This position needs to be upgraded as soon as possible. He's definitely a liability.

- Karras had a rough game. Noticed more floaters out there too. The OL as a whole was poor. An extra blocker may be necessary against Baltimore. Or scheming needs work.

-Choosing Michel over Chubb was definitely a mistake. Chubb is able to pick up big yards without spectacular blocking and/or holes. Not so much for Sony. The drafting/personnel decisions over the past few years is a topic for a different day.

-Unless a trade is made for a lineman before Sunday. Or a tight end is brought in (Both very unlikely), it's up to the defense to get us to 9-0. BB has had alot of success against 1st and 2nd year starters. Hope that continues.

League wide, the Colts are looking very good. And other than @New Orleans & Houston, their schedule is very favorable. Need them to drop a few more games.

 

[mgcolby]

@ Ken, I think I know the Collins play you are talking about, if so, Collins started to slide to fill the hole, but Baker made a fake throw after the handoff, which froze Collins just enough for Chubb to beat him to the point.

@Patastic,

It's funny, we win by 14 in bad weather and people are concerned. The Colts win a game by 2 points at home against a team that is struggling offensively and we should be concerned because they look good.

Love this place, some things will never change.

 

[Wheelssps]

Thanks, ken. Love your write ups.

The running yardage didn’t concern me a ton as the pats put a bunch of attention on not letting obj and their receivers slip a tackle and take a slant to the house, and betteftackling in better weather would have cut chubs yardage down by a lot.

I also agree about not relying a take aways, but Gilmore could easily have had points by not dropping a pass right to him, so it’s not like they’re converting every single opportunity out there. I think this d will have a certain number of take away opportunities every game, and having a game with zero take aways will likely be the exception rather than therulefirthem.

As long as the d shores up some of their foul weather tackling, and converts some of their take away opportunities, and the o keeps making baby steps in the right direction I think they’re in fine shape. The bye is going to be a big help to this team, too, for getting players back and for helping the team make strides integrating together, particularly on o

Thanks as always ken

 

[TommyD4207]

@ Ken, I think I know the Collins play you are talking about, if so, Collins started to slide to fill the hole, but Baker made a fake throw after the handoff, which froze Collins just enough for Chubb to beat him to the point.

@Patastic,

It's funny, we win by 14 in bad weather and people are concerned. The Colts win a game by 2 points at home against a team that is struggling offensively and we should be concerned because they look good.

Love this place, some things will never change.

And the only reason the Colts had a chance to win, was because the Broncos mismanaged the clock at the end of the game, AND gave up a 40+ yard pass.

But yet, look out for the Colts, look out for the team that got ****kicked by the Browns a couple of weeks ago - but the Patriots, the Patriots are IN TROUBLE.

 

[Soliel]

Nice write up Ken. Thank you

 

[luuked]

. I don't know, but there were way too many errant throws tonight, which contributed to a surprising 55% completion rate. Again, not sure why that was.

Honestly not sure if playing in conditions like this, being up multiple scores and having a makeshift OL is the right game to think too hard about errant throws and completion percentage.

If there ever was a game to just take the sack or throw the ball away it was this. And I was happy to see Brady do it again and again after that almost INT in the endzone early on.

No reason to make life easier for a team that kept self destructing on almost every drive. That being said I would assume that if you look at the next 3-4 games there should be a noticeable improvement in most stats and also the output of the offense given who they will be getting back.

I think that it is pretty clear that we don't win the Superbowl without Sony's playoff run, but it's also pretty apparent which Georgia RB we should have taken. Bigger, stronger, more explosive. It wasn't a bad choice, just not the BEST one.

They wanted the player who would run according to how it is blocked up front for him, not turn the ball over and they thought Sony fits that better. The reality is that while Chubb seems to be stronger when hitting the hole we don't know how he would look in our offense.

Ultimately Sony scored what ? 6 TDs in 3 postseason games last year ? Broke an important run close to our own redzone to not only drain the clock but move the ball closer to the FG that sealed that SB. Scored that TD late against the Chiefs on fourth down.

The post season alone is enough reason for me to not really second guessing the pick. He already contributed substantially to a SB title. Thinking we could just put Chubb in there and have the same results is lazy and reductive. I know we say "next man up" a lot but an NFL offense is much more nuanced than a word document. You don't just copy/paste things.

Point being we don't know what the "BEST" choice would have been.

The fact that he wasn't makes me wonder about the 3 trades we made for Cunningham, Elumanour, and the other guy we cut a couple of weeks ago, and just what we got for what we gave away. If Elumanour couldn't beat out Karras, who was getting hammered by guys who were playing for a chance to make it in the XFL, what's going on with our pro scouting department, and dare I say....Dante? It's a nice story that the future HC of Iowa got his first start of his career, but I GOT to think we can do better. Right?

Elumanour was on the inside track to be a starter for the Ravens when camp started. And then he quickly became a disappointment there to the point where they were fine sending him away. Sometimes situations like that get resolved by a change of scenery other times they don't. I still think it was worth the try given what Scar can usually do with players but this one so far looks like a L.

I just am not sure what you expect to get off the scrap heap at the end of camp or midseason. Unless you invest major resources you will not get a "sure thing" upgrade in a trade and certainly not off the streets.

The real troubles here started when the veteran depth started to retire through camp and a position with what looked like solid depth turned into very thin pretty quickly. Given the incompetence other teams show with starters on their OL I am surprised some here expected better play from people off the street.

Are we seeing a "blueprint" being issued here? Are there "cracks in the wall"?

I swear to god the term "blue print" should be banned from this board. There is 8 weeks of tape now and other teams have a better idea what to try and what not to try. This is not a blue print but just a logical consequence of playing many games for every team.

That being said I would claim that yesterday's shoddy tackling is an outlier for this season so far. Which means that a lot of the success yesterday might have also been due to the crap conditions. If the tackling returns to its top of the league mean suddenly all of this is much less dramatic.

 

[luuked]

The team shouldn't have to go for it on every kick that is 40 yards or more. That increases the likelihood of not getting points. Against great teams that will come back to haunt them. This position needs to be upgraded as soon as possible. He's definitely a liability.

This is easy to say. The reality is that you will not get much better off the street. Neither preseason nor midseason.

And if you think trade then lets see what kickers that would be available really would also be definite upgrades. Because this list is way shorter than many think.

 

[DarrylS]

Great write up as usual, couple of observations....

Brady just does not look right; personnel issues?? poor game planning?? poor play calling?? sucky O line?? disgusted with O weapons?? or is age catching up to him?? (f) all of the above??

Our O is scoring points, but they do not look that good as we are used to ... thought after last week #12 would have more confidence in Meyers, if I remember correctly he only had one target and one catch.. think they said yesterday that Bailey has punted the second most times (not sure if it is league wide or the AFC). Seems we are leaving more points on the field than we normally do.

Defensively we are stout and historic, but concerned with Chubb yesterday.. one of the best I know, but a lot of holes opened up. OTOH 3 takeaways on 3 consecutive plays is historic.. quietly the Pats had 5 sacks yesterday.

Nugent has a very short shelf life...

While BB won his 300th, we witnessed a coach who probably should not be coaching at this level in Freddie Kitchens.. not sure I remember watching a team with this much talent who continually make heinous mistakes and underperform.. OBJ, Landry, Chubb + high value defensive players...

The Pats have a +189 point differential and in 8 games have held opponents to 61 points, now prepare for the anticipated: "Who have they played mantra" (Shut up sports mediots).. the Pats now have 25 takeaways and 8 giveaways..

On to Baltimore, we will see how they do in that venue.. but there is a lot of work that needs to be done particularly on the O side of the ball, hopefully they will somehow come together and figure this out...

 

[archstanton543]

Tom Brady has 9 more TD's to throw to overtake Peyton Manning on the all-time list. I seem to remember all the pomp and circumstance when Manning was about to eclipse Favre. They're not doing that with Brady which is odd. You'd figure being so close to breaking the record that it would be bigger news.

 

[archstanton543]

3. QB- Brady made a BUNCH of really good throws tonight.

He did. He also has a BUNCH of bad throws tonight. I'm not saying it's age catching up or whatever but he had a BUNCH of non-pressured easy throws that he just straight-up missed in this game. Could it be the weather? Maybe but he looked shaky out there.

Wynne or Harry are not going to prevent Brady from almost throwing another red zone pick or missing an easy screen pass.

 

[BelichicksHoodie]

The fact that we’ve played tomato cans this first eight weeks of the season hasn’t really given us a good glimpse of what we truly are. These next four or five weeks will give us a really good idea of what our ceiling is this year. Including this Sunday in a potential conference final matchup.

 

[Doctor DDS]

I honestly do not understand all the angst. This version of the Patriots is it's most dominant version since 2007 and the gap between the Pats and other top teams in the AFC appears to be significant. The biggest difference between this team and prior Patriots teams is the fact that the defense is the better unit. Pats offense has clearly struggled at times but certainly not as much as some stretches of defensive "woes" in recent years (early 2017) This may be a year where we'd rather have to defend a game winning drive than having to score one. I personally am enjoying every minute of it.

This team obviously has some holes on offense and there are things to be concerned about but that is true every season. Get through the upcoming stretch healthy, get the 1 seed and see who has the cajones to try to come into Foxboro in January and take the Pats down.

 

[luuked]

The fact that we’ve played tomato cans this first eight weeks of the season hasn’t really given us a good glimpse of what we truly are. These next four or five weeks will give us a really good idea of what our ceiling is this year. Including this Sunday in a potential conference final matchup.

The "tomato cans" we just took apart in yet another not particularly competitive game yesterday just recently totally blew out who you consider a "potential conference final matchup".

Your math doesn't make much sense to me.

 

[PatsDeb]

It’s the O line. It’s the part of our game that’s shaky. If that could improve; everything else (running game woes, sacks, Brady being hurried into bad throws) would improve dramatically. Props to Jules and TB12 for a nice rollout and spin into the EZ for the TD!

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

My wife, who doesn't usually watch the games with me, wasn't too happy with the offense. So, even from the average/less than average fan you could tell the O wasn't clicking on all cylinders.

Weather was a factor, run blocking was a factor, pass protection was decent, though Brady did have some tight pockets to throw from (credit to the Cleveland D for that).

To me, it was just to many 3rd and longs. the offense never seemed to get into a flow that lasted more than a series. all these things seem solvable and the Offense has been in massive restructuring with all the newer players coming and going. Still have a bye week and 8 weeks left to get the playoff O into shape.

I think that's a solvable issue and one that I feel comfortable knowing will get addressed. With this Defense, having a good offense (if not great) will be plenty to take us to a deep post season run.

 

[BelichicksHoodie]

The "tomato cans" we just took apart in yet another not particularly competitive game yesterday just recently totally blew out who you consider a "potential conference final matchup".

Your math doesn't make much sense to me.

Ravens are a different team than they were four weeks ago. As are we. Try again.

 

[WHPats]

I honestly do not understand all the angst. This version of the Patriots is it's most dominant version since 2007 and the gap between the Pats and other top teams in the AFC appears to be significant. The biggest difference between this team and prior Patriots teams is the fact that the defense is the better unit. Pats offense has clearly struggled at times but certainly not as much as some stretches of defensive "woes" in recent years (early 2017) This may be a year where we'd rather have to defend a game winning drive than having to score one. I personally am enjoying every minute of it.

This team obviously has some holes on offense and there are things to be concerned about but that is true every season. Get through the upcoming stretch healthy, get the 1 seed and see who has the cajones to try to come into Foxboro in January and take the Pats down.

I think a lot of it's coming from the "tale of two schedules" that's happened this year. I've never quite seen anything like it where the first half of the schedule is a lot easier than the second half. I think there are a lot of bad teams in the NFL this year, and whenever the Patriots win, if they dominate, the narrative is "well they played the _____, they should dominate them," and if the other team does anything successfully, or strings some plays together or gets some stops, "the _____ are terrible, if we can't stop them or convert against them, how will we fare when we play (insert better team here)?" We haven't truly faced a team that has it together on both sides of the ball yet. Baltimore is probably considered the first "real test" and then it's a handful of challenging games in a row after that.

The Patriots are still the best team in the AFC, and at this point that's all you have to worry about. You don't have to tangle with New Orleans, Green Bay or San Francisco in a winner-take-all type game until the Super Bowl. The defense is still playing solid football. We weren't going to destroy every team 35-3, and the Browns talent level is probably tops in their division. They're just poorly coached and undisciplined. That's a pretty good football team if they had a coach like Belichick.

The offense will figure it out. I seriously think 95% of their problems are on the offensive line. Brady's won the Super Bowl and gotten deep in the playoffs with worth receivers than he's got now. Honestly I think the playmaking positions are fine, it's the OL that's the issue. When Brady has time he's making plays. But it seems like he's almost out of time 1.5 to 2 seconds after every passing snap. Bear in mind, the Browns DL isn't bad, and Myles Garrett is quite good.

I think the 16-0 thing is a big distraction. Yeah it's incredible that it happened once and we all got to see it, but I feel like that was a once-in-a-lifetime thing and that when the Super Bowl came around, the pressure was monumental and the Pats cracked. I'd gladly have lost the Eagles and Ravens games in 2007 if it meant they could win the Super Bowl in 2007. Undefeated is really cool, but I won't be the least bit surprised if the Pats drop a couple games in this next 5-6 game stretch. It's an extremely competitive league and the gap between the great teams and the good teams is very small. As long as the team continues to improve, they'll figure it out. They always do. Go Pats!

 

[sb1]

I counted 4 missed tackles on Chubb’s long run. Take that 55 yarder away and he is 19 carries for 76 yards and just 4 YPC.

They have been occasionally prone to that this year- I think the Redskins and Bills got a long one off them for the same reason. Would be good to clean that up.

 

[SBLIII]

Offense and defense basically flipped from the usual Patriots teams. Offense went from elite to average. Defense went from average to elite.

You have to hope that we get this OL figured out.