Idle thoughts- the pre-draft edition.

[patfanken]

Basically, I'm just talking to myself here trying to make sense of the information, misinformation, and disinformation that we have been discussing since early February. I imagine that in the few days we have left this flow will only increase the volume of "the noise ". So I guess this post is designed to try and organize and justify my own hopes for draft. AND if in the process you find it informative or provoking enough to comment on, somuch the better.

1. Overall strategy:

PATIENCE - This draft isn't really about 2024, but rather 2025 and beyond. If this draft ends up finding 4 eventual starters , it will be a home run. However, if all we get out of this draft is a 10 year starting QB it will still be a HR .

So here's the REAL rub. Given that we have multiple needs, do you do the vikings trade and try and solve 2 needs and hope you get lucky later in the draft, or do you grab the the high end QB prospect and hope he hits.


I have come to the conclusion that you HAVE to go QB here for three reasons.

First, we might never get another chance at a high end prospect. Of course great QB's have been found in every round of the draft, BUT recent history has shown that the great majority of the top 10 QB's were chosen early. Sure it may fail, but if you hit, you are set for the next 10+ years. It's worth the risk.

Secondly, like I said above, we are drafting for 2025, not this year, where any QB prospect will either be sitting or playing with a very limited playbook in 2024. Take a shot a guy with the high upside then EASE him into the NFL game in 24 and reassess at the end of the season . Who knows where we will be. We might find the franchise LT or WR this year. Either way at the end of the season we are likely to have fewer holes to fill and will have cap space to add specific additions in FA and have another draft to add talent and depth with a talented QB with some experience. NOW you are in position to compete for the playoffs and build a championship roster.

Third, this a team with new coaches, and has to build a new culture AND establish a new identity. That is a lot to expect given the current state of the roster. 2024 is the time to do that.

Now some might think, "hey Ken, you just stated a great reason to trade down", but there is zero guarantee there will be the high-end QB talent the next. Could be you see just ONE top end sprospect and the rest are Bo Nix kind of guys.

yesterday it was almost a sure thing that Maye was going to be there at #3. But today dropped the odds to 50-50, likely based on Daniels agent 's comments today. THAT'S how fast the draft industrial complex works.

In my mind Washington SHOULD pick Daniels. Washington has new ownership and a fast fading fan base. Daniels is older and more likely to be ready to start than Maye will be in 24. Washington needs to put asses in the seats and creating excitement for the new owner. And as of 4/25, he is the 2nd best prospect on the board.

That being said, in my mind, Maye is the better long term prospect and he's the guy I hope will be there when our pick is called. But that's just a personal preference and if it's Daniels I'm 95% as happy.


2. Day Two

I would prefer to take an OT at #34 simply because there will be decent WR prospects in later rounds PLUS you get 2 more shots at the Apple between next year's excellent FA class and the 25 draft. Good to great WR's will always be available. Better to add your (hopefully) elite WR next year when your QB is more prepared to be effective with him

With the 3rd rounder I hope we go defense at CB or DL

 

[PP2]

3:46 am.... go to bed Ken.

 

[DarrylS]

The more I listen and read either Maye or Daniels works for me also.
In the recesses of my mind there is still the sting of the '21 draft #2 Zach Wilson, #3 Trey Lance, #11 Justin Fields and of course Jones at 15.
My dilemma is are Daniels/Maye going to lead this team out of mediocrity or do we trade down and stock pile picks to start to fill many of the Pats needs???

 

[State]

I do the trade down. Build the roster.

Belichick is right. Half these QBs and WRs taken in the first round don’t pan out.

 

[Clonamery]

There's a fair chance we are picking TOP 5 in next year's draft whether picking the QB at 3 turns into stud or mud.

 

[KCSVEN]

1 .Overall strategy:

PATIENCE- This draft isn't really about 2024, but rather 2025 and beyond. If this draft ends up finding 4 eventual starters , it will be a home run. However, if all we get out of this draft is a 10 year starting QB it will still be a HR .

So here's the REAL rub. Given that we have multiple needs, do you do the vikings trade and try and solve 2 needs and hope you get lucky later in the draft, or do you grab the the high end QB prospect and hope he hits.

If they don't get 2 starters plus a top 15 NFL QB the draft is not very good. If they get a top 5 QB and nothing else it is not very good, just shows they don't know what they are doing and they got lucky by getting the remaining QB left, and the future drafts will be bleak as that means they stink at drafting..
This is a relatively deep draft, where they are set to pick in each round should be a minimum of 3 starters.
The odds heavily favor a QB in the 1st round vs taking one later.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

They can't afford to whiff on rounds 2-6. That's just like having BB the gm.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

There's a fair chance we are picking TOP 5 in next year's draft whether picking the QB at 3 turns into stud or mud.

I'd trade with the giants if the deal is sweet. They're going to be lousy again and definitely a top 10 if not top 5. Need to stack those picks down the road

 

[Pape]

Basically, I'm just talking to myself here trying to make sense of the information, misinformation, and disinformation that we have been discussing since early February. I imagine that in the few days we have left this flow will only increase the volume of "the noise ". So I guess this post is designed to try and organize and justify my own hopes for draft. AND if in the process you find it informative or provoking enough to comment on, somuch the better.

1 .Overall strategy:

PATIENCE- This draft isn't really about 2024, but rather 2025 and beyond. If this draft ends up finding 4 eventual starters , it will be a home run. However, if all we get out of this draft is a 10 year starting QB it will still be a HR .

So here's the REAL rub. Given that we have multiple needs, do you do the vikings trade and try and solve 2 needs and hope you get lucky later in the draft, or do you grab the the high end QB prospect and hope he hits.


I have come to the conclusion that you HAVE to go QB here for 3 reasons. First we might never get another chance at a high end prospect. Of course, great QB's have been found in every round of the draft, BUT recent history has shown that the great majority of the top 10 QB's were chosen early. Sure it may fail, but if you hit, you are set for the next 10+ years. It's worth the risk.

Secondly, like I said above, we are drafting for 25, not this year, where any QB prospect
will either be sitting or playing with a very limited playbook in 24. Take a shot a guy with the high upside then EASE him into the NFL game in 24 and reassess at the end of the season . Who knows where we will be. We might find the franchise LT or WR this year. Either way at the end of the season we are likely to have fewer holes to fill and will have cap space to add specific additions in FA and have another draft to add talent and depth with a talented QB with some experience. NOW you are in position to compete for the playoffs and build a championship roster.

Third, this a team with new coaches, and has to build a new culture AND establish a new identity. That is a lot to expect given the current state of the roster. 2024 is the time to do that.

Now some might think, "hey Ken, you just stated a great reason to trade down", but there is zero guarantee there will be the high-end QB talent the next. Could be you see just ONE top end sprospect and the rest are Bo Nix kind of guys.

yesterday it was almost a sure thing that Maye was going to be there at #3. But today dropped the odds to 50-50, likely based on Daniels agent 's comments today. THAT'S how fast the draft industrial complex works.

in my mind Washington SHOULD pick Daniels. Washington has new ownership and a fast fading fan base. Daniels is older and more likely to be ready to start than Maye will be in 24. Washington needs to put asses in the seats and creating excitement for the new owner. And as of 4/25, he is the 2nd best prospect on the board.

that being said, in my mind, Maye is the better long term prospect and he's the guy I hope will be there when our pick is called. But that's just a personal preference and if it's Daniels I'm 95% as happy

2. day two

I would prefer to take an OT at #34 simply because there will be decent WR prospects in later rounds PLUS you get 2 more shots at the Apple between next year's excellent FA class and the 25 draft. Good to great WR's will always be available. Better to add your (hopefully) elite WR next year when your QB is more prepared to be effective with him

With the 3rd rounder I hope we go defense at CB or DL

I think that this is mostly spot on. I understand the need to draft a QB at 3, and agree with using 34 on a LT... Not an OT, but a player who has spent a majority of their playing time at the LT position...

Back to the third overall pick... Taking a QB here makes all the sense in the world... It has been pointed out to me multiple times that next year's class is not very deep... That's a good analysis based on last year's college season... At the same time, there might, and yeah hedging my bets here with the slim chance of might, be risers in next year's college season... Good players will step forward if given the opportunity...

So it makes sense to take a QB at 3 if it's the guy we want, the player we have targeted... It does not make sense, to me at any rate, to take a guy we are not targeting just because he is the last guy standing... I would like to see a more flexible approach to the draft in that case... I hope the front office recognizes this, and will be willing to strongly consider all trade options if necessary... You said it, we are not drafting for '24, but for '25... I would add to that '25 & beyond...

We are in a full blown rebuild, regardless of the potential of the defense this year...in today's NFL the game is offense... Better to wait and get the pieces you want than taking a guy to plug in there just because he's the one who is left...

 

[oldrover]

I thought the second half of Ken's post was pretty bold.

EDIT: For some reason, now, it seems a lot less bold.

 

[vicspats]

Basically, I'm just talking to myself here trying to make sense of the information, misinformation, and disinformation that we have been discussing since early February. I imagine that in the few days we have left this flow will only increase the volume of "the noise ". So I guess this post is designed to try and organize and justify my own hopes for draft. AND if in the process you find it informative or provoking enough to comment on, somuch the better.

1 .Overall strategy:

PATIENCE- This draft isn't really about 2024, but rather 2025 and beyond. If this draft ends up finding 4 eventual starters , it will be a home run. However, if all we get out of this draft is a 10 year starting QB it will still be a HR .

So here's the REAL rub. Given that we have multiple needs, do you do the vikings trade and try and solve 2 needs and hope you get lucky later in the draft, or do you grab the the high end QB prospect and hope he hits.


I have come to the conclusion that you HAVE to go QB here for 3 reasons. First we might never get another chance at a high end prospect. Of course, great QB's have been found in every round of the draft, BUT recent history has shown that the great majority of the top 10 QB's were chosen early. Sure it may fail, but if you hit, you are set for the next 10+ years. It's worth the risk.

Secondly, like I said above, we are drafting for 25, not this year, where any QB prospect
will either be sitting or playing with a very limited playbook in 24. Take a shot a guy with the high upside then EASE him into the NFL game in 24 and reassess at the end of the season . Who knows where we will be. We might find the franchise LT or WR this year. Either way at the end of the season we are likely to have fewer holes to fill and will have cap space to add specific additions in FA and have another draft to add talent and depth with a talented QB with some experience. NOW you are in position to compete for the playoffs and build a championship roster.

Third, this a team with new coaches, and has to build a new culture AND establish a new identity. That is a lot to expect given the current state of the roster. 2024 is the time to do that.

Now some might think, "hey Ken, you just stated a great reason to trade down", but there is zero guarantee there will be the high-end QB talent the next. Could be you see just ONE top end sprospect and the rest are Bo Nix kind of guys.

yesterday it was almost a sure thing that Maye was going to be there at #3. But today dropped the odds to 50-50, likely based on Daniels agent 's comments today. THAT'S how fast the draft industrial complex works.

in my mind Washington SHOULD pick Daniels. Washington has new ownership and a fast fading fan base. Daniels is older and more likely to be ready to start than Maye will be in 24. Washington needs to put asses in the seats and creating excitement for the new owner. And as of 4/25, he is the 2nd best prospect on the board.

that being said, in my mind, Maye is the better long term prospect and he's the guy I hope will be there when our pick is called. But that's just a personal preference and if it's Daniels I'm 95% as happy

2. day two

I would prefer to take an OT at #34 simply because there will be decent WR prospects in later rounds PLUS you get 2 more shots at the Apple between next year's excellent FA class and the 25 draft. Good to great WR's will always be available. Better to add your (hopefully) elite WR next year when your QB is more prepared to be effective with him

With the 3rd rounder I hope we go defense at CB or DL

There are actually so many possibilities. What happens if they take Alt at 3 and move back into the bottom of the first for a QB? I think the general consensus is Left OT QB and WR. If they got all three in the first two rounds it would be a great start. I’m hoping for a trade down to get Odunze, then move back up into the bottom of the first to get one of the other two positions of need. But I agree 100%, this offense won’t get fixed this year. Looking to the 25 draft and free agency is exactly, I’m guessing what “Wolf and Company” are doing. Either way it’s going to be exciting come next week !! Keep the faith !!

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Our first pick has to be, and will be, a QB. It would be ridiculous to own the #3 pick, be QB needy in a class of 6 legit candidates that could all go in round 1, and not take one of them.

The decision isn't whether to take a QB with our first pick, it's whether to trade it down to 4-5-6-11-13 and still get one of the QB's our brain trust likes. That certainly appears possible, and it would make a huge difference in addressing our other needs if we could pick up an extra 1st-2nd-3rd rounder (or almost any extra draft capital). We really need to move the needle in this draft, and that means additional high picks.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Finally almost here.

 

[patfanken]

3:46 am.... go to bed Ken.

Thanks for the advice.

My laptop died yesterday and I had to type it on my phone, which is excruciatingly s l o w. I ran out of gas and cut short my thoughts on day 2 and didn't even start on day 3.