There is this take floating out there that a big reason for the Patriots defense's low points allowed total since week 5 of the season is due to having great field position. From a superficial look the point appears to have some merit. The average starting field position of the Patriots' defense since week 5 is the opponents' 24 yard line, the best in the league. So it seems to be logical that with the offense having to drive more of the field the total amount of scoring drives would be lower.
But I wanted to take a closer look if this is really true. Because I remember the Patriots defense seemingly giving up a lot of long scoring drives this season, even after week 5. Therefore I used the Drive Finder on Pro-Football-Reference to filter for all drives that start between the opponents 25 and 49 yard line. Which aside from drives within the 25 also excludes drives that start in the defense's half of the field, which mostly end up in scores (this season drives that start in the defense's half ended in a score in 65.5% of the cases, compared to 30.6% for drives starting in the offense's half).
If the take that the Patriots' D benefits significantly from their good starting field position holds true, then the expectation should be for the defense's performance on a per-drive basis to be mediocre at best. Certainly not top of the field. So how was the result?
Since week 5 the Patriots' D (excluding kneel-down drives) faced 71 drives starting between the 25 and 49, which is middle of the pack. They allowed a score on 14 of them. That's a score on 19.7% of the drives which is leading the league, narrowly ahead of the Jaguars who allowed 16 scores on 81 drives for 19.8%. The Vikings come out third at 18 scores in 78 drives (23.1%).
Breaking down the 14 scores, there were 7 TDs and 7 FGs for a total of 70 points. This means, that on those, let's call them standard drives, the Patriots D allowed less than 1 point per drive (0.99 to be exact). The 7 TDs allowed in 71 drives place them second in terms of TD percentage at 9.9%, behind Jacksonville with 6 TDs (7.4%). Jacksonville and Minnesota's points per drive on those standard drives are 0.89 and 1.15 by the way.
Now, the next question is, do they benefit significantly from forcing turnovers (remember 2011 when a Patriots D that was 32nd in yardage was 3rd in TOs)? On those standard drives, the Patriots D has forced a total of 7 turnovers for a percentage of 9.9%. That ranks 25th in the league.
Then, have they benefitted from opponents missing (easy) FGs? On those 71 drives there were 3 missed FGs and a blocked one. Even if we tack on all those as makes, the Patriots' D would still rank 5th in scoring percentage. And it wasn't like all those misses were chip shots. The 3 missed ones were a 50 yarder by Steven Hauschka, a 49 yarder by Nick Folk and a 36 yarder by Matt Bryant.
For those wondering about yardage, the Patriots rank 15th in yards per drive on those with 29.1 and 2nd in plays per drive at 6.3.
Last but not least, how is the Patriots D doing on drives that start between the opponents' 1 and 24 yard lines? They have faced 53 such drives since week 5. And allowed 14 scores for a percentage of 26.4%, which is 22nd in the league. These 14 scores break down into 7 TDs and 7 FGs for 70 points (1.32 points per drive). That's right, the Patriots D since week 5 has allowed exactly as many scores on drives that start with supposedly great field position as on those with normal field position. Moreover, the opponents also missed 4 FGs on those drives. A 56 and 31 yarder by Nick Folk, a 40 yarder by Chandler Catanzaro last week and a 51 yarder by Nick Novak.
But I wanted to take a closer look if this is really true. Because I remember the Patriots defense seemingly giving up a lot of long scoring drives this season, even after week 5. Therefore I used the Drive Finder on Pro-Football-Reference to filter for all drives that start between the opponents 25 and 49 yard line. Which aside from drives within the 25 also excludes drives that start in the defense's half of the field, which mostly end up in scores (this season drives that start in the defense's half ended in a score in 65.5% of the cases, compared to 30.6% for drives starting in the offense's half).
If the take that the Patriots' D benefits significantly from their good starting field position holds true, then the expectation should be for the defense's performance on a per-drive basis to be mediocre at best. Certainly not top of the field. So how was the result?
Since week 5 the Patriots' D (excluding kneel-down drives) faced 71 drives starting between the 25 and 49, which is middle of the pack. They allowed a score on 14 of them. That's a score on 19.7% of the drives which is leading the league, narrowly ahead of the Jaguars who allowed 16 scores on 81 drives for 19.8%. The Vikings come out third at 18 scores in 78 drives (23.1%).
Breaking down the 14 scores, there were 7 TDs and 7 FGs for a total of 70 points. This means, that on those, let's call them standard drives, the Patriots D allowed less than 1 point per drive (0.99 to be exact). The 7 TDs allowed in 71 drives place them second in terms of TD percentage at 9.9%, behind Jacksonville with 6 TDs (7.4%). Jacksonville and Minnesota's points per drive on those standard drives are 0.89 and 1.15 by the way.
Now, the next question is, do they benefit significantly from forcing turnovers (remember 2011 when a Patriots D that was 32nd in yardage was 3rd in TOs)? On those standard drives, the Patriots D has forced a total of 7 turnovers for a percentage of 9.9%. That ranks 25th in the league.
Then, have they benefitted from opponents missing (easy) FGs? On those 71 drives there were 3 missed FGs and a blocked one. Even if we tack on all those as makes, the Patriots' D would still rank 5th in scoring percentage. And it wasn't like all those misses were chip shots. The 3 missed ones were a 50 yarder by Steven Hauschka, a 49 yarder by Nick Folk and a 36 yarder by Matt Bryant.
For those wondering about yardage, the Patriots rank 15th in yards per drive on those with 29.1 and 2nd in plays per drive at 6.3.
Last but not least, how is the Patriots D doing on drives that start between the opponents' 1 and 24 yard lines? They have faced 53 such drives since week 5. And allowed 14 scores for a percentage of 26.4%, which is 22nd in the league. These 14 scores break down into 7 TDs and 7 FGs for 70 points (1.32 points per drive). That's right, the Patriots D since week 5 has allowed exactly as many scores on drives that start with supposedly great field position as on those with normal field position. Moreover, the opponents also missed 4 FGs on those drives. A 56 and 31 yarder by Nick Folk, a 40 yarder by Chandler Catanzaro last week and a 51 yarder by Nick Novak.