BobDigital
Pro Bowl Player
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- Aug 10, 2013
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I said before at the start of the week this was a huge week and went a long way to decide who gets the first seed in the AFC. I believe it will be between the Patriots and the AFCW representative (likely KC). The AFCN (Steelers) have an outside shot but very unlikely in my opinion. The AFCS doesn't really deserve at seat at this table to be blunt.
Let me get right into why.
First I will talk about the Steelers who are likely to rep the AFCN. The main issue with this team has been and will continue to be the offense and more specifically Ben Roethlisberger. Their D to this point has been one of the best in the NFL, Their O is actually only 22nd in PPG. They hold the tie breaker over KC and face the Pats later this year. If this go well for them this week they will be the first seed very possibly at this point. However the big issue for them is to take the first seed they almost certainly need to beat the Patriots. This has not happened often. Brady has the number of that D and BB has the number of that O. While it was hoped it would be a more diverse attack this year that has not really happened. It still is pretty much just Brown and Bell. 2 huge talents but no depth that has truly stepped up. Also this game will happen near the end of the year when the Pats will likely be playing near their best. Considering the history with both teams the the timing of the game I don't see victory likely for them nor do I think they are good enough to make that loss and tie breaker not matter. This i why don't think they can win the first seed unless serious injuries happen to other teams; particularly the Patriots.
KC has begun to look mortal but I think the cracks have only just begun to show. Let me make this clear. As of right now Alex Smith is having the best statistical year in the history of the NFL; i'll say it again cause I want to be clear. ALEX SMITH IS HAVING THE BEST STATISTICAL YEAR IN THE HISTORY OF THE NFL . Smith in 7 games has 15 TDs O Ints and a 120.5 QB rating. A few QBs have scored a little higher on QB rating the the TD/Int ratio here is more than impressive. Even with that kind of performance and Hunt having one of the best year for a RB of all time up to this point this team is only 5-2. Now take those offense juggernauts and look at the names they have on D. This should by all rights be a team that is 7-0 and going for an undefeated season. The fact it is not and that is ha looked very mortal in 2 other games besides those 2 loses indicates there are a lot of issues here beneath the surface. That D as other have pointed out since they lost their star safety have had issues. That run D has not been good. They are giving up 4.7 YPC with a long of 27. It would be more encouraging if they had a long of 90 yards. One bad run to make those numbers look bad would be welcome. The fact is this shows they consistently give up decent size carries for medium chunk plays. There are a lot of issues here and I think their pass D has mostly been saved by a very good pass rush. Also Hunt has now started to fall off his monster pace but has still been effective. Week in and week out it seems Smith escapes interceptions and tipped balls have fallen his way. They those things stop happening and he starts to pay for his mistakes and comes down to earth a bit (he is no Brady, Manning or Rodgers. He can't keep this up an entire year even in his best year). Alex Smith is having a Nick Foles kind of year. Foles got the 3rd best QB rating in a single season of all time but did it only over 10 games. It is possible for an okay QB to go on a run like this for 10 games... I suspect if Foles had to play another 6 he would have fallen off and not have held that mark. That is neither here nor there though.
So I believe we will look at this half the the season and look at the 2nd half of the year and probably conclude the first was better than the 2nd. However this is almost about how they will relate to the Patriots in those next 9 games. As of now the Patriots have the easier last 9 games after this week in my opinion and they play a lot of the same teams.
Both teams must face the Chargers, Raiders and Broncos and both must face the Bills, Jets and Dolphins. Those 6 games are identical the last 3 for each team are... Pats - Steelers, Dolphins, Bills and KC - Dallas, Denver Giants. So the Pats will have to play just 1 team competing for the playoffs who they have a good track record against. KC needs to play 2 such teams. Yes the Pats get 2 divisional games to 1 for KC but I think divisional games are over stated much of the time. I would rather face the easier teams and the Patriots do. This Brings us to the Patriots.
After this week the Patriots have an easier record than KC (though not as easy as Pitt). They also will probably in typical fashion have a better last 9 games than first 7. They traditionally play better in the 2nd half health aside. They will have Gilmore and hopefully Rowe back after this week and hopefully for the season. We have seen signs of them turning it around the last 2 games. The offense has struggled a bit but the D has finally showed signs of life. It is not where it needs to be but the fact is in the last 2 games the pats allowed 31 points (15.5PPG). In the first 4 games they allowed 128 points (32PPG). Judging the the eye ball and actually watching the games one would not conclude they have changed to such a drastic degree but clearly things are changing for the better the last 2 games. If they continue to go in the right diction and play on the field matching what we see in those point totals or close to it would be great to see. I think it will. This D is too talented to not be at least decent. Growing pains exist and will continue to but we are starting to see the turn around happen and with 9 more games (6 more after this week till we face Pitt) it is very reasonable to assume they win that must win game as we think they should and have a better record in the 2nd half than the first. KC likely won't or will do just as well at best.
However all this come down to this week and the Pats winning this game. They have started to turn it around but have not. They are a week away from playing the far inferior SD than a bye to get healthy for the last 8 games. They have an easier road than KC in the 2nd half. If they win this week everything points to them winning the first seed all things being equal even losing the tie breaker IMO. However this is a hard week and I think a MUST WIN for the first seed. The Pats will have a hard time getting and keeping the lead even if KC falls off a bit. They will probably drop a game and maybe 2 at some point as is after this week. They appear to be on the verge of really starting to turn it around but it is still early in that turn around. They now need to face a desperate Atlanta team in a game they need to have for multiple reasons. With GB going down the NFC has opened up a lot. A bye is there for the taking if they can keep pace with other teams but going 3-3 would make that hard to do and this their chance to get a huge emotional boost and go 4-2 in the process and make a big statement to the league but more so to themselves. Also the Pat have key defensive injuries sadly.
I feel this is a tough game in a tough spot and I do believe (I hate to sound so hyperbole) this week will decide the first seed for the Pats. I think if they win this week they get it. If they don't they are looking at the 2nd and having to go the KC. That is never easy. In a year this wide open and without that clear power house team home field will mean a lot. I don't think we can over state how big this weeks game is and what it means. I think the Pats win and get the first seed. But I expect it to be hard and a very close game. Needless to say I am very pumped this this week. GO PATS!
Let me get right into why.
First I will talk about the Steelers who are likely to rep the AFCN. The main issue with this team has been and will continue to be the offense and more specifically Ben Roethlisberger. Their D to this point has been one of the best in the NFL, Their O is actually only 22nd in PPG. They hold the tie breaker over KC and face the Pats later this year. If this go well for them this week they will be the first seed very possibly at this point. However the big issue for them is to take the first seed they almost certainly need to beat the Patriots. This has not happened often. Brady has the number of that D and BB has the number of that O. While it was hoped it would be a more diverse attack this year that has not really happened. It still is pretty much just Brown and Bell. 2 huge talents but no depth that has truly stepped up. Also this game will happen near the end of the year when the Pats will likely be playing near their best. Considering the history with both teams the the timing of the game I don't see victory likely for them nor do I think they are good enough to make that loss and tie breaker not matter. This i why don't think they can win the first seed unless serious injuries happen to other teams; particularly the Patriots.
KC has begun to look mortal but I think the cracks have only just begun to show. Let me make this clear. As of right now Alex Smith is having the best statistical year in the history of the NFL; i'll say it again cause I want to be clear. ALEX SMITH IS HAVING THE BEST STATISTICAL YEAR IN THE HISTORY OF THE NFL . Smith in 7 games has 15 TDs O Ints and a 120.5 QB rating. A few QBs have scored a little higher on QB rating the the TD/Int ratio here is more than impressive. Even with that kind of performance and Hunt having one of the best year for a RB of all time up to this point this team is only 5-2. Now take those offense juggernauts and look at the names they have on D. This should by all rights be a team that is 7-0 and going for an undefeated season. The fact it is not and that is ha looked very mortal in 2 other games besides those 2 loses indicates there are a lot of issues here beneath the surface. That D as other have pointed out since they lost their star safety have had issues. That run D has not been good. They are giving up 4.7 YPC with a long of 27. It would be more encouraging if they had a long of 90 yards. One bad run to make those numbers look bad would be welcome. The fact is this shows they consistently give up decent size carries for medium chunk plays. There are a lot of issues here and I think their pass D has mostly been saved by a very good pass rush. Also Hunt has now started to fall off his monster pace but has still been effective. Week in and week out it seems Smith escapes interceptions and tipped balls have fallen his way. They those things stop happening and he starts to pay for his mistakes and comes down to earth a bit (he is no Brady, Manning or Rodgers. He can't keep this up an entire year even in his best year). Alex Smith is having a Nick Foles kind of year. Foles got the 3rd best QB rating in a single season of all time but did it only over 10 games. It is possible for an okay QB to go on a run like this for 10 games... I suspect if Foles had to play another 6 he would have fallen off and not have held that mark. That is neither here nor there though.
So I believe we will look at this half the the season and look at the 2nd half of the year and probably conclude the first was better than the 2nd. However this is almost about how they will relate to the Patriots in those next 9 games. As of now the Patriots have the easier last 9 games after this week in my opinion and they play a lot of the same teams.
Both teams must face the Chargers, Raiders and Broncos and both must face the Bills, Jets and Dolphins. Those 6 games are identical the last 3 for each team are... Pats - Steelers, Dolphins, Bills and KC - Dallas, Denver Giants. So the Pats will have to play just 1 team competing for the playoffs who they have a good track record against. KC needs to play 2 such teams. Yes the Pats get 2 divisional games to 1 for KC but I think divisional games are over stated much of the time. I would rather face the easier teams and the Patriots do. This Brings us to the Patriots.
After this week the Patriots have an easier record than KC (though not as easy as Pitt). They also will probably in typical fashion have a better last 9 games than first 7. They traditionally play better in the 2nd half health aside. They will have Gilmore and hopefully Rowe back after this week and hopefully for the season. We have seen signs of them turning it around the last 2 games. The offense has struggled a bit but the D has finally showed signs of life. It is not where it needs to be but the fact is in the last 2 games the pats allowed 31 points (15.5PPG). In the first 4 games they allowed 128 points (32PPG). Judging the the eye ball and actually watching the games one would not conclude they have changed to such a drastic degree but clearly things are changing for the better the last 2 games. If they continue to go in the right diction and play on the field matching what we see in those point totals or close to it would be great to see. I think it will. This D is too talented to not be at least decent. Growing pains exist and will continue to but we are starting to see the turn around happen and with 9 more games (6 more after this week till we face Pitt) it is very reasonable to assume they win that must win game as we think they should and have a better record in the 2nd half than the first. KC likely won't or will do just as well at best.
However all this come down to this week and the Pats winning this game. They have started to turn it around but have not. They are a week away from playing the far inferior SD than a bye to get healthy for the last 8 games. They have an easier road than KC in the 2nd half. If they win this week everything points to them winning the first seed all things being equal even losing the tie breaker IMO. However this is a hard week and I think a MUST WIN for the first seed. The Pats will have a hard time getting and keeping the lead even if KC falls off a bit. They will probably drop a game and maybe 2 at some point as is after this week. They appear to be on the verge of really starting to turn it around but it is still early in that turn around. They now need to face a desperate Atlanta team in a game they need to have for multiple reasons. With GB going down the NFC has opened up a lot. A bye is there for the taking if they can keep pace with other teams but going 3-3 would make that hard to do and this their chance to get a huge emotional boost and go 4-2 in the process and make a big statement to the league but more so to themselves. Also the Pat have key defensive injuries sadly.
I feel this is a tough game in a tough spot and I do believe (I hate to sound so hyperbole) this week will decide the first seed for the Pats. I think if they win this week they get it. If they don't they are looking at the 2nd and having to go the KC. That is never easy. In a year this wide open and without that clear power house team home field will mean a lot. I don't think we can over state how big this weeks game is and what it means. I think the Pats win and get the first seed. But I expect it to be hard and a very close game. Needless to say I am very pumped this this week. GO PATS!
"Yes!"
