So, after further clarification, it might be useful to settle the dust.
1. Miguel currently estimates our current cap commitment at $123,639,131 ($117,955,660 salary and bonuses + $5,683,721 dead money).
2. Using a projected league-wide cap of $126.3M, Miguel currently estimates our adjusted cap at $130,977,450 (adding $570,639 total adjustments and $4,106,801 carryover from 2013 to the league-wide number). Some capologists have suggested that the league-wide cap could be as much as $2M higher.
Patriots Salary Cap Picture ? 2/4/2014 Update atriots Salary Cap
3. Using Miguel's numbers, we currently have $7,338,319 to spend. Again, that number could be as much as $2M higher depending on where the league-wide cap comes in, which we won't know for another month.
4. MgTeich has proposed using a $6M estimate for rookie salaries (as mandated by the NFL based on number of draft picks and relative position), the practice squad, and contingency funds. This may be on the high side, since there will be bottom-of-the-roster cuts that will free up some funds for future signings, but it's a reasonable start Using this estimate, we have only about $1,338,319 to spend on free agent signings (including re-signing our own FAs) before cuts and re-structurings.
5. The "cap savings if cut" numbers currently listed by Miguel include a $495K hidden bump to account for a bottom-of-the-roster player being moved onto the top 51 if a more expensive player is cut. However, that bump shouldn't be included if we are looking at signing UFAs on a 1-1 basis. Given that, the potential cap savings for cutting the following players
and replacing them with FA signings would be:
- Isaac Sapoaga: $2.5M.
- Adrian Wilson: $1.166M.
- Tommy Kelly: $2.231M.
- Steve Gregory: $2.725M.
- Dan Connolly: $6M.
- Vince Wilfork: $8M.
Those 6 contracts would potentially free up $20.133M in cap space, for a total of about $21.5M available to spend on FAs in that scenario after the carry-over from #4 above is applied. Obviously, not all of the above are automatic cuts (Sapoaga and Wilson would appear to be), or anything like it, but they are potential sources of significant cap relief.
6. Extensions for Devin McCourty ($5.115M current 2014 cap hit), Stephen Gostkowski ($3.8M current 2014 cap hit) and Matt Slatter ($2.267M current 2014 cap hit) could potentially free up another $2.5-3M in cap space for this year. All 3 are in the final year of their contracts. That would potentially bump the available money to spend to somewhere around $24-24.5M.
7. For $24M or so in 2014 cap space we could potentially do something like the following:
- Sign an elite UFA such as Cleveland OC Alex Mack or S TJ Ward or Chicago DT Henry Melton (probably about a $5M 2014 cap hit on a multi-year contract with an AAV of $7-8M).
- Re-sign Aqib Talib (probably about a $5M 2014 cap hit on a multi-year contract with an AAV of about $7M).
- Sign a UFA DT like Linval Joseph or Arthur Jones
or WR Julian Edelman (probably about a $4M 2014 cap hit on a multi-year contract with an AAV of around $5M).
- Re-sign RB LeGarrette Blount to a multi-year deal (roughly a $2.5M 2014 cap hit on a 3 year / $10M contract).
- Sign a lower level DT, OL or WR for a 2014 cap hit of around $2.5M.
- Sign a UFA TE like Brandon Pettigrew (probably about a $3M 2014 cap hit).
- Re-sign some lower-level players like LB Dane Fletcher, LS Danny Aiken, and possibly Will Svitek or Michael Hoomanawanui.
I'm not saying that all 6 of those players should be cut, and certainly not immediately. But there is considerable room to free up money depending on what choices the FO makes about who to bring back, and who to bring in from the outside. Cutting Sapoaga and Adrian Wilson frees up enough money to probably re-sign Julian Edelman or sign a veteran DT. Cutting an injured Wilfork who isn't certain to be able to recover would free up the cap space to probably sign a Melton/Ward/Mack plus a TE like Pettigrew. Obviously, the long-term cap implications of these possible contracts and the impact of bringing in a number of new players would have to be part of the overall calculus.
There will be some hard choices to be made about whether to "stand pat" with many current players or move in a new direction.