You know my stance. I find that the "Draftniks" are useful for the information they provide. But that stops when they start putting their opinion on where players are likely to be drafted.
I have to say this is a little odd bc the most frequently asked question or 2nd most is "what round do you think so & so should go"
The draft is all about finding out where talent & need meet, which creates a value. You'll never be valued if you can't tell someone where a prospect should be taken.
2 things every draftnik should be able to do...
Have a firm handle on the prospect = What he was asked to do vs what he can. Strengths/issues. Where he'll fit to start out. Background etc
Where he should be taken
I don't believe that draftniks should get credit for a player they projected as a 1st rounder who got taken at 77 or 83. They should get credit if they projected a player to go higher than the "consensus" and the player does.
The Mel Kipers of the world are more concerned with
where a prospect is going
specifically on draft. Whereas I'm concerned with both short & long term. I want to be inline with the NFL in real time but want to look back in 3-5 years and say "ultimately that's where he should have went" ... again it goes back to value.
But yea different people will take different approaches. Kiper, McShay and those guys are selling a product & presentation > being right.
But this is just me because people hold the "Draftniks" as gospel and outright refuse to think the draftniks could be wrong despite the fact they are wrong time and again, year after year.
I dont know about this. Most don't take them serious bc "they don't work for the NFL" or "do it from their couch" or will pick the low hanging fruit to go after when looking at the community.
And I'll be the first to admit I don't pay attention to 99% of them. I don't read the 10000 articles or mock drafts. I can honestly say I don't read that stuff or listen to podcast or even TV. It's crazy a cut so much of that out years ago and don't regret it.
Anyway I dont care about it bc I just don't have time and are so focused and used to doing my own thing but some are very useful. And at least a small % can hang with the NFL guys imo if not do better given the resources.
This year the consensus board hit on 83% of the top 150 taken. That's not bad considering the difference in resources and information people are getting. And if you look at it from the other side. The pros are given everything on silver plater nowadays compared to 20-30 years ago. It's incredible how much for information is available in terms of gathering background, analysis/analytics, on field data like play speed and on and on.
Those guys are given a huge head start in comparison. Again it's a small %, very few but if they were given the opportunity I bet some could do great things. I think every office could use a little help from the outside bc everyone is in a bubble whether they admit it or not. Coaches, scouts, draft geeks. Everyone. I don't think one or two extra set of fresh eyes would hurt.