mgcolby's Score Predicter System Thread

[mgcolby]

All,

As some of you may recall I have had a score predicting system for the NFL for some time now, think it maybe more than a decade that I created this. Any way I use to post it on here weekly in the old gambling thread. It was fun to see how it performed in the several years that I actually managed to keep up with it weekly it has won both against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU). I am creating a thread to hopefully keep my feet to the fire to update it weekly and not get lazy.

Each week I will post hopefully by Tuesday NLT Wednesday afternoon what its predictions are for the week and the previous weeks results. Some times I may add content in regards to the predictions that I find most interesting or even shocking at times. There is one this week that may shock some folks after last week.

How it works:

It is a Yards Per Point model based on the last four games played at its core. I have added/developed some wrinkles here and there over time in order to improve it. There are several columns, most I think are self explanatory but just in case:

Predicted Score: Is the adjusted score to account for HFA based on the teams current four game average head to head.
Predicted Spread: Is the difference +/- for each team based on predicted score head to head.
Live Spread: Is based on the MGM line at the time of me completing the weekly spreadsheet.
Spread Dif: Is the difference between the live line and the predicted spread used in this instance to show the line advantage the picker believes is in that teams favor.
O/U Line: Is based on the MGM over/under line at the time of me completing the weekly spreadsheet.
Predicted Points: Is the combined adjusted score points in the predicted score column.
O/U DIF: Is the difference between the live over/under line and the predicted Points used in this instance to show the over/under line advantage the picker believes is in that directions favor.

Now with all that out of the way a few small house keeping things:

1. You probably noticed I said based on the last four games played. Well of course there have only been 3 games played by each team so far. I do this every year I get antsy and want to use it. So, I throw it together for week 4, but its pre-season for the picker. I never include the week 3 record in the season totals. So feel free to disregard this week's predictions.
2. If you do use this (and this goes for any week, but especially week 4) as a tool for any degeneracy don't come back here whining and crying about the results. By that I mean being angry, upset because you followed this blindly etc... remember it doesn't account for a monsoon in Miami during the game. Be smart and use it for what it is a, tool. With that said constructive criticism, enthusiasm and ass kissing the creator for your triumphant victories (should they so happen) is always welcomed.
3. Always enjoy other peoples thoughts and insights on how they use the predictor and general overall conversation about its predictions.

Without further ado lets kick off pre-season for the picker!

First game I was taken aback by is the Fins Bills game. I truly thought with it lacking a fourth game and the Dolphins having that huge outlier game it would have predicted the game much differently. But it has the Bills winning by 4 points in a surprisingly low(ish) scoring game 28-24 (27.8-23.7).

It is not a fan of our Patriots this week, sees us losing by 8.5-9 points.

Houston edging Pittsburgh by point or two

Bears beating the Broncos (ouch, but that could be more of the outlier)

Good game to really drive home point 2 it has the Saints defeating the Bucs, now we know Carr is highly unlikely to play in this game. I don't think a Carr-less Saints team is a favorite over the Bucs much less a 4 point favorite. For the Record MGM seems to disagree with me on that or they know something about Carr that we don't because they have the line NO -3.5.

Those are the ones that stood out to me the most.

 

[Pape]

I am impressed.

 

[Dingleberry]

Glad to see this back again!

 

[Brotherblues]

Your fancy maths can't sway me. I'll be making it rain dinglebucks with the Pats again this week and you can't do squat about it bro. See right through your plot.

 

[mgcolby]

Update through Sunday's games

ATS: 8-7
O/U: 10-5
SU: 9-6

 

[mgcolby]

Updated with last nights game.

ATS: 9-7 56%
O/U: 10-6 63%
SU: 10-6 63%

Not to shabby. But as I mentioned previously I don't count week 4 into the season record good, bad or otherwise.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 5 Picks

I can't really find any games that are surprising this week. All are about what you would expect. I guess at first glance the Cardinals beating the Bengals is on what these two teams should be. But based on how they have played it is not surprising. So not much to comment on.

 

[mgcolby]

Ok so not a good week for the picker ATS out the gate. Kinda looked like me in the Dingleberry casino and a little better than our beloved Patriots on Sunday...ok not much better, but at least it scored.

ATS: 4-10 29%
O/U: 8-6 57%
ML: 6-8 43%
That is a kick in the nads on the ATS but a solid 57% on the over under and wound licking 43% effort on the moneyline. Hopefully it gets back on track next week.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 6

And the picker says we're onto Cincinnati in an attempt to put this past week in the past for good.

It has some bold calls this week starting with taking the road dog Panthers getting 13.5 points down in Miami. I'd probably lay off that one myself, but the picker doesn't have that luxury and calls it the way the numbers fall.

Then probably the surprise pick of the week, the Colts to win straight up over the Jags. I could see the possibility with the Jags returning home from two weeks mourning the Queen across the pond. Could be some jet lag and acclimation issues there.

Then in another bold move taking the home dog Jets +6.5 to hang in there with the Eagles.

It has the Bills destroying the Giants.

And sadly once again the home town team eating another Richard from the satchel of Richards.

Season Record
ATS: 4-10 29%
O/U: 8-6 57%
ML: 6-8 43%

 

[Pape]

so is the o/u, or really our predicted score, ever affected by the absolute lack of scoring? its about the same for last week as it is for this week...

 

[mgcolby]

so is the o/u, or really our predicted score, ever affected by the absolute lack of scoring? its about the same for last week as it is for this week...

Absolutely. At its core its how many yards the offense takes to score a point against how many yards it takes the opponents defense to allow a point.

It's just a coincidence.

 

[mgcolby]

Well the picker is off to a Patriots sized hole here. Another rough week. It did call the Jets and Browns ATS, something to hang its hat on in an otherwise dismal week.

Weekly Record
ATS: 6-8 43%
O/U: 4-9-1 31%
ML: 7-7 50%


Season Record
ATS: 10-18 36%
O/U: 12-15-1 44%
ML: 13-15 46%

 

[mgcolby]

Once again we are onto Cincinnati....feel like we might not ever get there. Two straight losing weeks for the picker. That doesn't happen often. But I think this year we have seen many of the teams playing inconsistent football from week to week. I would say more than usual, as I am also having a hard time pinning teams down to what I think they should be. Just a strange year overall so far.

Anyway onto the picks:

As you will see it doesn't see our skid ending this week predicting a blowout. In fact I think calling for a 14 point loss is generous.

It thinks the Lions will walk into Baltimore and grab a victory over the Ravens. I tend to agree.

I think the game of the week call is interesting. It has the Fins coming out victorious in Philly. That should be an excellent game.

No other noteworthy picks. I will mention it seems to really like the unders this week calling for 8 plays on the under.

 

[mgcolby]

A little late this week. But yet again another losing week. I can't remember it ever having back to back losing weeks let alone three in a row. I may need to adjust the home field advantage again. But I will have to look at the numbers and see if it would make a difference.

Also need to note that I had a typo in the original week 7 post. I had the Titans playing the Falcons. I updated it prior to Sunday so the final score post (this one) has the correct data in it.

Overall it improved but still a losing week.

ATS: 6-7
SU: 4-9
O/U: 5-7-1

 

[mgcolby]

Week 8

Not to many surprise picks this week. And hopefully it gets back on track with a winning week.

I double checked the games this week so there shouldn't be any errors. If you do spot one please let me know.

It has the Jags handling the Steelers with relative ease.
It likes the Pats ATS but not so much straight up. But given its recent picking activities that may be a good thing.

The only possible eyebrow raiser is the Bears beating the Chargers by 9.

I also want to note in the Eagles/Skins game will be marked as a push given the .03 difference between the pickers predicted spread and the actual spread.


Season Record
ATS: 16-25 39%
O/U: 17-22-2 44%
ML: 17-24 41%

 

[venecol]

Your predicted score for Bills vs Bucs: 24.5 - 18.5
Actual: 24-18

****, I'm cancelling my Pats ML bet.

 

[1960Pats]

All,

As some of you may recall I have had a score predicting system for the NFL for some time now, think it maybe more than a decade that I created this. Any way I use to post it on here weekly in the old gambling thread. It was fun to see how it performed in the several years that I actually managed to keep up with it weekly it has won both against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU). I am creating a thread to hopefully keep my feet to the fire to update it weekly and not get lazy.

Each week I will post hopefully by Tuesday NLT Wednesday afternoon what its predictions are for the week and the previous weeks results. Some times I may add content in regards to the predictions that I find most interesting or even shocking at times. There is one this week that may shock some folks after last week.

How it works:

It is a Yards Per Point model based on the last four games played at its core. I have added/developed some wrinkles here and there over time in order to improve it. There are several columns, most I think are self explanatory but just in case:

Predicted Score: Is the adjusted score to account for HFA based on the teams current four game average head to head.
Predicted Spread: Is the difference +/- for each team based on predicted score head to head.
Live Spread: Is based on the MGM line at the time of me completing the weekly spreadsheet.
Spread Dif: Is the difference between the live line and the predicted spread used in this instance to show the line advantage the picker believes is in that teams favor.
O/U Line: Is based on the MGM over/under line at the time of me completing the weekly spreadsheet.
Predicted Points: Is the combined adjusted score points in the predicted score column.
O/U DIF: Is the difference between the live over/under line and the predicted Points used in this instance to show the over/under line advantage the picker believes is in that directions favor.

Now with all that out of the way a few small house keeping things:

1. You probably noticed I said based on the last four games played. Well of course there have only been 3 games played by each team so far. I do this every year I get antsy and want to use it. So, I throw it together for week 4, but its pre-season for the picker. I never include the week 3 record in the season totals. So feel free to disregard this week's predictions.
2. If you do use this (and this goes for any week, but especially week 4) as a tool for any degeneracy don't come back here whining and crying about the results. By that I mean being angry, upset because you followed this blindly etc... remember it doesn't account for a monsoon in Miami during the game. Be smart and use it for what it is a, tool. With that said constructive criticism, enthusiasm and ass kissing the creator for your triumphant victories (should they so happen) is always welcomed.
3. Always enjoy other peoples thoughts and insights on how they use the predictor and general overall conversation about its predictions.

Without further ado lets kick off pre-season for the picker!

First game I was taken aback by is the Fins Bills game. I truly thought with it lacking a fourth game and the Dolphins having that huge outlier game it would have predicted the game much differently. But it has the Bills winning by 4 points in a surprisingly low(ish) scoring game 28-24 (27.8-23.7).

It is not a fan of our Patriots this week, sees us losing by 8.5-9 points.

Houston edging Pittsburgh by point or two

Bears beating the Broncos (ouch, but that could be more of the outlier)

Good game to really drive home point 2 it has the Saints defeating the Bucs, now we know Carr is highly unlikely to play in this game. I don't think a Carr-less Saints team is a favorite over the Bucs much less a 4 point favorite. For the Record MGM seems to disagree with me on that or they know something about Carr that we don't because they have the line NO -3.5.

Those are the ones that stood out to me the most.


View attachment 53163

I don't know why I've missed this thread but I won't again.

I spent quite a few years tracking all kinds of stats and still fiddle around a little, but nothing like that. Great job.

Week 7 was a killer for predictions. Something like 8 of the 13 games were won outright by an underdog and one other favorite didn't cover.

 

[mgcolby]

Your predicted score for Bills vs Bucs: 24.5 - 18.5
Actual: 24-18

****, I'm cancelling my Pats ML bet.

Well it's been more wrong than right this year. So hopefully it will get that one wrong.

 

[venecol]

I don't know why I've missed this thread but I won't again.

I spent quite a few years tracking all kinds of stats and still fiddle around a little, but nothing like that. Great job.

Week 7 was a killer for predictions. Something like 8 of the 13 games were won outright by an underdog and one other favorite didn't cover.

Yet, Ian went 10-3 in the picks contest.
We'll call him prescient.

 

[Thelonious]

I love your passion for this work. I tend to admire anybody who is passionately obsessed with his particular hobby horse, whatever it may be. My own hobby horse is music theory. I have many dozens of 5x8 cards covered with dots and grids and numbers and obscure runic scribbling. If anyone is foolish enough to ask me about it, I will bore them to tears in moments. I had a friend who, for no reason known even to himself, decided to learn Finnish. He is now fully fluent, but he has nobody to talk Finnish with, so he periodically flies to Finland for his version of "a good time," ordering obscure pastries or fermented fish heads and talking poetry with his beloved Finns. Whether he swings by Copenhagen on the way home for some other sort of good time, I will not say. Anyway, I really enjoyed your post, even though I only read half of it and understood a quarter. Bravo!!