mgcolby's Score Predicter System Thread

[mgcolby]

So off to a good start post the 1pm games. 6-3-1. And it had the correct call on the Philly game, but was to slight of a lean for me to count it. And had the Pats not given up that late score it would of been close to the actual score. It had 26-18. Either way with any luck it will finally have a winning week for 2023.

 

[mgcolby]

Tough 4pm results. ****ing Ravens and Browns blowing it. But that Ravens loss was brutal. Especially since I had real money on it @-9.5. Defense took the 4th quarter off.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 8 Results

So, another losing week after such a promising start through the 1pm games. Some bad beats there with the Ravens and Browns. But the Ravens game was inexcusable.

It did get a push to go its way with the improbable Jets/Giants ending.

Remember I called the Eagles game a push as the pickers predicted spread was 6.53 and the actual spread was 6.5. It was on the right side of the bet but I have to be consistent on these types of differences.

Weekly Results
ATS: 6-8-2 43%
SU: 12-4 75%
O/U: 6-10 38%

 

[mgcolby]

Week 9

Onto Week 9. This is getting really bad. Never had a year like this. But I really just think its super sporadic play this year. just look at what the Lions did in back to back weeks. Teams are all over the map. But the picker will simply man up and take the lumps while moving forward!

Games of note:

Ten/Pit: game is a little eye opening. But I kind of like the pick even though I'm on the fence for the most part. Picket coming off a game he left due to injury on a short week. Now Levis looked excellent last week at home, can he walk into Pittsburgh and perform. I am not sure. But I think I'll take the points. However, the Picker has the Titans straight up.

Chi/NO: Bears playing close with the Saints. Hard to like that given how they played last week out in LA. But the Saints are another team that is up one week down the next. So who knows.

Shocker of the week (maybe):

Jets/Chargers: Was surprised to see this as well, but again the Chargers are up and down from week to week. But given how the Jets played last week I am a bit shocked by this.

Season Record:
ATS: 22-33-2 40%
SU: 29-28 51%
O/U: 23-32-2 42%

 

[mgcolby]

Week 9 Results

Well, the curse must extend from the Pats to the Picker because its vying for a high pick next year too! An abysmal week. It is what it is. Will keep moving forward and hope it pulls its head out of its ass.

Ok on a serious note, read that Tommy Devito is starting this week and that he will be the 10th rookie QB to start a game this year a modern NFL record. Then you have Dobbs starting in Arizona one week and then playing significant time in Minnesota the next. This is one of the craziest years I can recall. So not making excuses for it, but if it does end up having a losing season this year, it will be its first. I'm to lazy to go back through and look but regular season wise I think the worst year it had up to this point ATS was 52 or 54%. Its usually closer 58-61% which we know is phenomenal. But not so much this year. However there are still 9 weeks left.

Weekly Results
ATS: 4-10 29%
SU: 8-6 57%
O/U: 5-9 36%

 

[mgcolby]

Week 10 Predictions

And still trying to get to Cincinnati but this old bus keeps breaking down.


Season Record:
ATS: 26-43-2 38%
SU: 37-34 52%
O/U: 28-30-3 41%

Thursday Night Football: I can't imagine why anyone would be excited for this game other than the local teams trying to get a better draft pick i.e. Chicago by beating the Panthers. Ah but then you have the kunudrum. If they beat the lowly Panthers they do possibly lessen the value of the pick they sent them for the 2024 draft, but then get the double whammy and worsen their own draft position for the 2nd round. Folks, that might be the most interesting thing this game has going for it. Unless you want to watch a struggling number one overall pick at QB possibly get out performed by an UDFA out of D2 on the national stage.

Dasz Boot Game: Well, we suck. Even the damn picker knows it. Thing can't pick a winner this year otherwise, but it knows we suck. It likes the Colts.

Cle/Bal: Interesting that it has the Browns playing them that well at first site. But then you look a bit deeper and they gave up 58 yards of total offense last week. I'm not with the Picker on this one. The Ravens are on fire the last four weeks averaging 32.5 PPG scored and allowing a mere 12.25 to go with 411.5 Yards on offense and allowing a pedestrian 257.75. It is a divisional game but think the Ravens cover in this one.

Some interesting games that peeked my fancy:

Texans hanging with the Bengals. That CJ is playing out of his skull, probably leaving a few folks down in the Cackalakies wondering, why isn't he on my team? But, Burrows is healthy and that is enough to pretty much beat any team in the NFL. The Bengals have started their run and they are not tripping over any sidewalk cracks this week!

Can Dobbs pull out the magic again? The Picker thinks so and I kinda agree with it.

Does Purdy drop 4 games in a row? Uh oh, I think he does. The offense isn't the same without Samuel, he may be back this week, we'll see. The Defense has not played well the past 3-4 weeks. I like Trevor and the Jags at home as well.

Chargers over the Lions? As Mr. Corso would say "Not so fast my friend". No way can I take that coach and their schizo asses over the Lions. Good thing for the Chargers this week, I don't think too many Lions fans exhiled themselves to LA. They may have a home game this week, even if it is in front of a half empty stadium.

It likes the Gints with all those points. They have a dude named Tommy Devito playing QB. Sorry.

Then it likes the Washington Red...football....Commanders team! To win, on the road in Seattle. I don't know but its the NFL in 2023 seemingly anything is possible.

Jetes and Raiders...are they still testing nukes out there in the desert? Asking for a friend.

The Donks edging the bildos (definitely no pun intended there folks), shh, don't tell the wife...I kinda like it! Hell, if our season has to be miserable, bring on the company and who is not better than the bildos and their fans for the task?

See ya next week!

 

[mgcolby]

Well, it finally got off the snide ATS. Absolutely terrible on the O/U. Hopefully, it's on an upward trajectory and we can have a full on winning week across the board.

It called a few big ones this week, the Browns, Texans and Broncos. Some not so good calls particularly the Giants and Jaguars. The Giants well they're a mess and starting a new QB. But the Jags just didn't show up.

Weekly Results
ATS: 7-5-2 58%
SU: 6-8 43%
O/U: 3-11 21%

 

[mgcolby]

Week 11
Season Record:
ATS: 33-48-4 41%
SU: 43-42 51%
O/U: 31-51-3 38%

Sorry no real breakdown tonight. I am in Maine for a funeral and just don't have the humor in me today. But here is week 11. Hopefully things start improving across the board with the picker. It would be nice for it to have one of its 10-4 weeks. We'll see.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 11 Results

Finally a non-losing week across the board. Had a good week against the spread and the Over Under came in at 500 on the games straight up.

Weekly Results
ATS: 8-6 57%
SU: 7-7 50%
O/U: 9-5 64%

It had a few good calls this week. The Giants, Raiders, Eagles standout. It was on point in the Rams Seahawks game it had the spread at 0.73, the actual spread was 1 point and it ended up being a one point game.

Overall a good week hope it continues into this week.

I do want to note two errors in the initial spreadsheet I posted last Thursday. I had the Packers getting three when it should have been Chargers -3 and I initially had the Seahawks giving up one when it should have been the Rams getting one point. Both corrections have been made and are reflected here on the weekly final. Sorry, that's what I get for doing a lot of this manually. I am working on some automation. But that is a work in progress.

 

[Ian]

Just want to say I enjoy reading these, really glad you started doing it

 

[vicspats]

I love your passion for this work. I tend to admire anybody who is passionately obsessed with his particular hobby horse, whatever it may be. My own hobby horse is music theory. I have many dozens of 5x8 cards covered with dots and grids and numbers and obscure runic scribbling. If anyone is foolish enough to ask me about it, I will bore them to tears in moments. I had a friend who, for no reason known even to himself, decided to learn Finnish. He is now fully fluent, but he has nobody to talk Finnish with, so he periodically flies to Finland for his version of "a good time," ordering obscure pastries or fermented fish heads and talking poetry with his beloved Finns. Whether he swings by Copenhagen on the way home for some other sort of good time, I will not say. Anyway, I really enjoyed your post, even though I only read half of it and understood a quarter. Bravo!!

A lot of the theory once learned is straightforward. What instruments do you tackle?

 

[Thelonious]

A lot of the theory once learned is straightforward. What instruments do you tackle?

Guitar only (goof around with bass, banjo, piano). I know a lot of theory, particularly from a Jazz perspective, but as I have picked it up randomly over the last 50 years, it's all pretty unsystematic, with weird gaps and and some pretty idiosyncratic terminology.. I'd love to take a course in basic theory from the bottom up, but one intended for non-music-readers (I have Zero interest in learning to do that.) A couple of weeks ago, I decided for the first time in my life to get a guitar teacher, hoping, as I told him in advance, to systematize what I know and extend it. I said I wanted to look into harmonizing nondiatonic scales and into polychords. He had me memorize the notes and the specific fingering for BB King's Cook Count Jail solo on "The Thrill is Gone," about as easy a song to solo over as can be found this side of folk music. He said we could move on to string bending next week. I can play circles around him as well, which makes me a little pessimistic how well it'll work going forward. He has a college degree in Musical Performance/Guitar. I'm trying somebody else next week. I wish him well, but he's not for me.

 

[vicspats]

Guitar only (goof around with bass, banjo, piano). I know a lot of theory, particularly from a Jazz perspective, but as I have picked it up randomly over the last 50 years, it's all pretty unsystematic, with weird gaps and and some pretty idiosyncratic terminology.. I'd love to take a course in basic theory from the bottom up, but one intended for non-music-readers (I have Zero interest in learning to do that.) A couple of weeks ago, I decided for the first time in my life to get a guitar teacher, hoping, as I told him in advance, to systematize what I know and extend it. I said I wanted to look into harmonizing nondiatonic scales and into polychords. He had me memorize the notes and the specific fingering for BB King's Cook Count Jail solo on "The Thrill is Gone," about as easy a song to solo over as can be found this side of folk music. He said we could move on to string bending next week. I can play circles around him as well, which makes me a little pessimistic how well it'll work going forward. He has a college degree in Musical Performance/Guitar. I'm trying somebody else next week. I wish him well, but he's not for me.

I’ve been hammering the keyboard since I’ve been 5. Non diatonic notes run rampant in jazz…almost to a point where it’s more of a feel than an actual science. Bending on a keyboard is almost second nature now. Still sometimes catch myself doing something and wonder what chord family it structurally belonged to. Was classically trained and was heading to music university, family didn’t think playing jazz in run down taverns was much of a future. Who knows?

 

[mgcolby]

Week 12 Predictions
Some quick housekeeping notes. As you may notice I made some changes. I added the date and time columns, I also changed up the team names display. I think it looks better myself, but open to feedback. As I alluded to in my previous post I have added some functions and queries to the excel workbook to automate some things the schedule was one of them. The other was populating the game stats for each team. What used to take 45-60 minutes now takes about 5 minutes. The only manual thing I have left to do is the spread and the over under lines. I'll try and work on that as well but for now this is a much better solution.

Now for the games that standout:

GB/Det: Has the Packers hanging with the Lions in a virtual tie. I like the Lions laying the points in this one.

SF/Sea: It likes the Seahawks to give the 49ers a competitive game. Again not sure I agree, the 49ers have been playing well as of late. I think the 49ers handle business on the road.

If the games playout the way the picker thinks we should have an entertaining day of football on Turkey day. I think the Commanders will be a bit more competitive against the Cowboys than the picker. I think they bounce back on the short week in a rivalry game.

Car/Ten: It has the Panthers going into the music city and pulling out a win. That would be interesting, not just of and in itself but for the Patriots draft jockeying.

NE/NYG: For the first time in a long while it likes the Pats this week. We'll see....

Cin/Pit: Obviously the Picker is unaware of Burrows being out so this one is probably not going to go the Picker's way.

LAR/Ari: We'll see who is correct here Vegas or the Picker. Vegas has this as a pick 'em and Picker has the Cardinals winning by a solid TD.

Buf/Phi: Picker going big with the Points (+3) on the road in Philly. Like the moxie...not sure I like the pick.

KC/LV: The Raiders hanging with the Chiefs...another balsy pick. I do like the 9 points here though.

Can the Picker do it three weeks in a row? I hope so, needs to get back up over 50 percent here.

Season Record:
ATS: 41-54-4 43%
SU: 50-49 51%
O/U: 40-56-3 42%

 

[mgcolby]

And....back to Loserville we go! The **** is contagious around these parts. I mean this was a bomb of a week kinda like only allowing 10 points in an NFL game and not being able to score more than the Red Sox on a decent day at the plate. Terrible!

The land mines were everywhere Seattle, NYJ, Atlanta, Denver and Arizona. The **** was nationwide!

Ah it is what it is? Will we still be allowed to say that next year?


Weekly Results
ATS: 4-11-1 27% (****ing Comical)
SU: 9-7 56%
O/U: 7-9 44%

 

[mgcolby]

Week 13 Predictions (Ha)
Alright lets see what the **** show thinks this week!

Sea/Dal: Out the gate on Thursday night it believes Dallas is going to destroy Seattle. Have to agree with that. Geno's Cinderella story is over. Good news is I don't believe he has broken any teammates jaws this season, well at least not with his fists. Can't speak for any of his throws.

Ari/Pit: Taking not only the points but the Cards outright to win. I'm not confident on the win. West coast dome team on the road out east in the cold. I like the points, but the Steelers have been finding ways to grind out victories. I'll take the points and the Steelers straight up.

Den/Hou: Just a month ago, if this game were a UFC bout it would be the leadoff match of the freebie fights. Now it looks like it's the second best game of the week. The Broncos are playing well on both sides of the ball (allowing 15.8 PPG over the last four games on Defense and scoring 25ppg on offense) and on a five game win streak. They have two dominant wins during that stretch, a 15 point win over the Chiefs and a 17 point win over the QB'less Browns. The other three games have been GB, Buffalo and Minnesota, all were within a two point margin. So, let me get the 3 points in this one. Don't see an eight point victory here, but do like Donks to extend their winning streak to 6 down in Houston this week.

Det/NO: Hard to see how the Saints score nearly 23 points this week after last week's field goal fest. But they did gain 444 yards of total offense and are averaging 24 ppg over their last four. The Lions on the other hand have been playing pretty loose on defense allowing nearly 27 (26.7) ppg over their last four to the likes of GB, Chi & Vegas. Not quite Kay Parker loose, but they're definitely at the fluffer level. Going to take the hard four on this one. So, Saints +4 and the Lions straight up.

NE/LAC: Feel obligated to say something each week on the Pats. I said something.

Cle/LAR: The picker is obviously unaware that Joe "****ing" Flacco might possibly start this one for the Brownies. Can't agree with the picker here. Give me LA -3.5 and straight up this week.

KC/GB: The Picker likes GB to hang with KC this week. It's not difficult to see why, once you look at the numbers. The Chiefs are averaging less than 20ppg (19.5) over their last four and only scoring more than 21 once, against the Raiders last week. However, those were against the Broncos, Dolphins and Eagles. It's a bit misleading in my book. Now the Packers have played the Rams, Steelers, Chargers and Lions over the past four weeks and are allowing 17ppg and scoring 22.7ppg. Not exactly murderer's row. The Lions were a solid win. But I chalk that up to the Lions well.... being the Lions. I think Mahomes goes into GB and drops 30+ on them. Going square here and laying the points and taking the Chiefs straight up.

SF/PHI: The game of the week! Man I'm looking forward to this one. Philly 3 point dogs at home, GTFO! The Picker almost agrees with Vegas, not sure I do. Philly's last four opponents: Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills. The Commanders were playing their best football of the year during that time and the other three are who they are. Thats a tough stretch right there and they came out 4-0. The 49ers on the other hand lost to the Bengals, then righted themselves against the likes of the Jaguars, Bucs and Seahawks. I know....I know the Eagles are due for a loss. Well until it happens I'm rolling with Assholes and I'm gonna throw snowballs at Santa this year! Give me the 3 and the Eagles straight up at home!

Now to the depressing ****:

Season Record:
ATS: 45-65-5 41%
SU: 59-56 51%
O/U: 47-65-3 42%

And this weeks picks. Fingers Crossed!

 

[Ian]

Week 13 Predictions (Ha)
Alright lets see what the **** show thinks this week!

Sea/Dal: Out the gate on Thursday night it believes Dallas is going to destroy Seattle. Have to agree with that. Geno's Cinderella story is over. Good news is I don't believe he has broken any teammates jaws this season, well at least not with his fists. Can't speak for any of his throws.

Ari/Pit: Taking not only the points but the Cards outright to win. I'm not confident on the win. West coast dome team on the road out east in the cold. I like the points, but the Steelers have been finding ways to grind out victories. I'll take the points and the Steelers straight up.

Den/Hou: Just a month ago, if this game were a UFC bout it would be the leadoff match of the freebie fights. Now it looks like it's the second best game of the week. The Broncos are playing well on both sides of the ball (allowing 15.8 PPG over the last four games on Defense and scoring 25ppg on offense) and on a five game win streak. They have two dominant wins during that stretch, a 15 point win over the Chiefs and a 17 point win over the QB'less Browns. The other three games have been GB, Buffalo and Minnesota, all were within a two point margin. So, let me get the 3 points in this one. Don't see an eight point victory here, but do like Donks to extend their winning streak to 6 down in Houston this week.

Det/NO: Hard to see how the Saints score nearly 23 points this week after last week's field goal fest. But they did gain 444 yards of total offense and are averaging 24 ppg over their last four. The Lions on the other hand have been playing pretty loose on defense allowing nearly 27 (26.7) ppg over their last four to the likes of GB, Chi & Vegas. Not quite Kay Parker loose, but they're definitely at the fluffer level. Going to take the hard four on this one. So, Saints +4 and the Lions straight up.

NE/LAC: Feel obligated to say something each week on the Pats. I said something.

Cle/LAR: The picker is obviously unaware that Joe "****ing" Flacco might possibly start this one for the Brownies. Can't agree with the picker here. Give me LA -3.5 and straight up this week.

KC/GB: The Picker likes GB to hang with KC this week. It's not difficult to see why, once you look at the numbers. The Chiefs are averaging less than 20ppg (19.5) over their last four and only scoring more than 21 once, against the Raiders last week. However, those were against the Broncos, Dolphins and Eagles. It's a bit misleading in my book. Now the Packers have played the Rams, Steelers, Chargers and Lions over the past four weeks and are allowing 17ppg and scoring 22.7ppg. Not exactly murderer's row. The Lions were a solid win. But I chalk that up to the Lions well.... being the Lions. I think Mahomes goes into GB and drops 30+ on them. Going square here and laying the points and taking the Chiefs straight up.

SF/PHI: The game of the week! Man I'm looking forward to this one. Philly 3 point dogs at home, GTFO! The Picker almost agrees with Vegas, not sure I do. Philly's last four opponents: Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills. The Commanders were playing their best football of the year during that time and the other three are who they are. Thats a tough stretch right there and they came out 4-0. The 49ers on the other hand lost to the Bengals, then righted themselves against the likes of the Jaguars, Bucs and Seahawks. I know....I know the Eagles are due for a loss. Well until it happens I'm rolling with Assholes and I'm gonna throw snowballs at Santa this year! Give me the 3 and the Eagles straight up at home!

Now to the depressing ****:

Season Record:
ATS: 45-65-5 41%
SU: 59-56 51%
O/U: 47-65-3 42%

And this weeks picks. Fingers Crossed!

View attachment 54893

It's interesting with the Thursday night game. Despite the final score, that one never really felt as close as it was. Dallas had the ball for almost 37 minutes, and the penalties obviously played a big role as well. Definitely a weird game.

Again, love following along with this each week. Good stuff.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 12 Results

Well wasn't a **** show except for the over/under. But have to be honest, I never worried to much about the over/under don't recall its history off the top of my head, but that is most likely because I don't play the over/under very often. Always focused more on the predicted winner and ATS. Anyone personal preference I guess. But it you are a points guy the picker took a heaping dump this week.

Did well straight up and came out one game ahead ATS.

Had some nice calls though, I paid in real dollars for ignoring its pick and thinking it was wrong.
Some highlight picks:
Arizona winning outright.
Green Bay taking the points.
Bengals hanging with the Jags taking the points.

Weekly Results
ATS: 7-6 54%
SU: 9-4 62%
O/U: 4-9 31% (Brutal)

 

[mgcolby]

Week 14 Predictions

PSA:
I have spent countless hours over the past weeks crunching the numbers for homefield advantage or lack thereof. And it didn't change anything. Currently the home team gets a point added and the away team has a point deducted from the predicted score giving the picker the adjusted predicted score listed in the weekly picks.

I tried going to a half point for each team i.e. homefield is worth a point. I have done a half point deduction for the away team and given the home team a point, i.e. homefield is worth a point and a half. A half point to the home team only etc...I did this for all games in randomly selected weeks, four in total I believe. Again, same results.

I can only attribute the lack of accuracy (based on past performance over 14 years) this season on the number of injuries to starting QB's. This week alone I believe 11 QBs that entered the season as backups or joined new teams will start this week. It has led to some drastic inconsistency in play. If this were the first season using it or even maybe the first couple of seasons I would have less confidence in the Picker. But it has a solid track record of winning, so I do not lay the blame of such a ****show season on the pickers methodology.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week of the Dogs! According to the picker it likes the dogs in 12 of 15 games. So, after weeks of suckage it suddenly fancies itself a sharp! Ha, we'll see.

NE/Pit: Predicts a victory, I guess it's possible both teams suck on offense. I think NE sucks more suck! But, I can get down with the +6.5.

Det/Chi: Likes the Bears to hang around with the Lions in a close one, taking the field goal at home. Hard to disagree with the way the Lions have been playing as of late. Letting the Saints hang around putting up 28 points, losing to the Packers and beating the Bears at home by 5. The Bears have won two out of three coming in with close wins over the lowly Panthers and the Vikings, with the aforementioned loss to the Lions.

Hou/NYJ: It can't name the Jets QB this week and not sure we can either, but it likes the Jets at home getting 6.5 against a red hot Houston team. Houston winners in four of their last five, with their lone loss to the Jaguars...while the Jets well they are the Jetes. I guess it thinks the Jets defense will score enough points to hang within 6. Can the Jets D do enough to confuse the rookie and keep the game tight...wait I mean can the Jets offense do anything? Hard to see that.

Buf/KC: Likes the Bills in this one, but only by a half a point. It is taking the 2.5. This kind of intrigues me this week. Depending on how my 1pm plays go, may lay some hard earned cash on the bildos. Not sure the money line will be worth it as I can agree this may be a last second FG game. keeping the game within 2 points.

Honorable mention:

Philly and Dallas. It likes the Cowboys big in this one, which based on last week's game really impacting the Eagles stats I can see why. However, I was fooled by Dallas beating up the sisters of the poor going into the Seahawks game. I won't make that mistake twice. Divisional game Eagles on the road. I don't know what to think here. Do the Eagles bounce back and take care of business on the road or does this start a downward spiral? I don't know, so probably going to lay off this one and just watch to find out.

Good luck to all the degenerates out there. And for those that have done well fading the picker this season.... donations are appreciated.

Season Record:
ATS: 52-71-5 42%
SU: 68-60 53%
O/U: 51-74-3 41%

Heeere weee goo!

 

[mgcolby]

Not a bad start. 9-3-1 ATS heading into Monday night. Should be 9-2-2, **** you very much Doug Pederson.

It needs to average 9.5 wins over the final five weeks to finish with a slightly winning record. So a split tonight would go a long way towards that. We'll see how it turns out.