Divisional Playoff Weekend
EDIT: My apologies for my error I had a mistake in one of the links in my initial screenshot. I caught right away when I posted it and went through replacing the image with the correct Ravens/Texans prediction. However, it appears for some reason the initial incorrect image was still being shown. I have updated the image with the proper prediction.
Likes the Packers to hang around with the 49ers. Tampa to upset the Lions. Boy would that be oddly comforting for the Lions fans. I keed...I keed. Its got the Bills and Ravens winning close games.
Hou/Bal:
CJ Stroud has been beyond impressive this season. Arguably one of the best, if not the best rookie season ever by a QB. I was thinking the moment would be too big for him last week and the Browns defense would keep him in check. Obviously I was wrong. But now he has to travel to Baltimore and leave the comforts of his dome. But being an OSU kid I doubt the weather will have any affect on him. Right now its expected to be 28 degrees and sunny with 14mph winds. Is this moment to big for him on the road against Lamar? I doubt it. The kid is a baller. The defense is playing well allowing 19.3ppg over the last four games.
However, that is against the Titans, Indy and Cleveland twice. And only scoring over 30 points once. Where the red hot Ravens come in averaging 30.5ppg and allowing only 15ppg over there last four and that includes there last game consisting of mostly backups. Those four games were against the Jaguars, 49ers, Dolphins and Steelers. Much stiffer competition and if you go back to the last four their starters played it was against the Rams. Outside of Lamar ****ting himself once again in the playoffs this should be a win for the Ravens. Now to the spread I am probably going to be with the picker on this one. And here is why:
Comp%: 55.9
Yards: 900
Avg per completion: 6.6
Passing TD: 3
Int: 5
Sacks: 19
QBR AVG: 35.5
Rush Yards: 367
YPC: 6.8
TD: 1
Not exactly inspiring playoff stats by Lamar.
GB/49ers:
The Picker likes the Packers +10 here. The Packers have been on fire the second half of the year in particular Jordan Love. 7-2 over their last nine including last week over the Cowboys. They are averaging 27ppg on offense over their last four games. But their defense is allowing 24.5 which includes allowing 30 points to the Panthers. They are a young team so you can chalk that up to them losing focus in what should of been a blowout. But still the worst team in the league dropped 30 on you. I also think the Cowboys is an impressive win but with an asterisk, its the playoffs and its the Cowboys. Maybe that isn't fair because they played well. A few things come to mind with them going to San Francisco. They allowed the Cowboys to come back and make the game tighter than it needed to be and that was over confidence by Lafluer, he pulls his starters on both sides of the ball. Seemed dumb at the time and it was in hindsight as well. How do you pull your defensive starters against the team with the best points per game average at home? That was dumb. Then the coaches talking **** to fans after the game. I mean act like you been there before. Am I over thinking this a bit maybe.
Now the 49ers are coming in well rested, and I presume healthy. They are 7-2 since the bye, which is impressive, but the competition was not. They destroyed the Eagles, but we all know what they are, and Baltimore beat them by 14. I know they can't control who they play, just pointing out it wasn't exactly murderers row the second half of the season and they have shown this year they can lose focus and drop games they should win losing to the Browns, Vikings and Bengals (without Burrow). Do they cover the 10? Ouch that is tough to swallow, I think they can for two reasons. 1. This team feels like they should have been SB champs last year had Purdy not got hurt. 2. GB is a young team coming of a huge road upset and as mentioned before feel like their coaching staff is a bit overconfident and that would definitely bleed down to the players. I believe the Jordan love feel good story comes crashing down and it could be bad. I expect the 49ers to come out focused and a team on a mission. Biggest fear on laying the 10 is the back door cover.
TB/DET:
Tampa coming off an offensive explosion, but much of that was the Eagles inability to tackle as much as their guys making plays. So as much as I thought Tampa's offensive woes were overblown coming into Wild Card weekend I think last nights performance will be equally overblown. I think they are really somewhere in the middle with a semi/healthy Baker. But its more about how Tampa's defense has been playing, averaging 11.7ppg over the last four and going back one game further held the Packers to 20 upping the average of 13ppg. They tackle well and typically don't get out of place. I think Detroit is going to have a hard time moving the ball against them.
On the flip side Detroit is scoring 26.3 ppg over their last four, but allowing 21.3 ppg and the Bucs offense is only scoring 17.3 ppg over that span. Both teams will have tough sledding on the ground Detroit ranks 2nd in rush defense allowing 87.6 ypg and 3.7 ypc. Tampa is the 4th ranked rushing defense allowing 93.2 ypg and 3.8 ypc. Ironically both teams rank in the bottom of the league in passing defense. I lean towards the Lions making a few more plays on the ground than Tampa giving them a hard fought win. But I think Tampa can win this and given Detroit's history I will not be surprised by Buccaneers win. Either way taking the 6 and lean under here.
KC/Buf
The game of the week. And being played at a balmy low 20's with 10mph winds as of now. Both offenses come in struggling a bit based on their standards over the past month or so. KC averaging 17.3ppg and Buffalo 24ppg on offense. The defenses are both holding their opponents under 20 points per game. I expect this game to be lower scoring one would tend to think based on past performances. Not a lot to be said here this should be a knock out drag out fight in Buffalo. I feel the Chiefs simply aren't the same team they have been and the fear of schitzo Allen making an appearance on Sunday night, I do believe the Chiefs come out on top in a tight low scoring game. I think the under is the play here. 2.5 is too close for me.
Playoff Record:
ATS: 5-1 83%
SU: 6-0 100%
O/U: 4-2 67%
Season Record (Including Playoffs):
ATS: 100-105-8 49%
SU: 120-93 56%
O/U: 88-121-4 42%
