I've said this isn't about Tayvon Wilson, but about WHEN he was drafted. For what to have happened 4 things had to be "clear"
1. The Pats had him rated as the 3rd best Safety in this draft.
I get your point but it is stated incorrectly. More precise is that the Pats had Wilson rated higher than any other safety available at pick #48 for doing what the Pats need on this roster. For all we know, they could have rated him higher than Harrison Smith and may not have had Barron on their board at all due to fit issues.
If Chung wasn't on the roster, someone like Iloka may have been the choice instead. If they didn't sign Gregory, maybe they go for someone with a lower ceiling but more ready to play immediately. Picking Wilson had much more context than just an independent safety ranking.
2. They thought that there were other teams who also rated him higher than the "current wisdom".
If current wisdom was 6th-FA, then this is clearly true. The only evidence we know the Pats had was a number of workouts and visits...a number that seemed to correspond to a potential interest level higher than the 6th round.
3. They had a strong belief that he would be taken by someone else at before our 62nd pick.
Doesn't have to be a strong belief. It is a risk weighed against the options if you lose Wilson. If "Plan B" after Wilson was sufficiently bad (in their minds at least) then you make sure you get Wilson.
There were 2 safeties taken at #73 and #79, so teams were shopping in that area of the draft. 3 additional low-ranked, small school safeties were taken in the 4th...one of them a non-combine guy...while a number of 3rd-4th round prospects were still on the board. Is it such a stretch to think that one of them would have possibly taken Wilson late in the 2nd? Even a 10% chance?
4. There was no other pick at 48 that was rated as high as Wilson, and/or in a position of need.
Seems logical but again it ignores all context. The Pats may have had Bequette rated higher than Wilson, but based on earlier picks they were willing to risk losing Bequette rather than lose Wilson. Also, I had a 3-4 DE rated as a top 3 need for the Pats but they clearly didn't agree. They also seem very confident in the CBs, OGs and WRs currently on the roster.
After 11 seasons of extraordinary success you just have to trust that this organization knows what they are doing and they believed the above four scenarios were reality. There is no other explanation.
I have another one. The Pats wanted to exit the draft with 3 specific players and they did what was necessary to get the first two. Now at pick #48 they could complete their shopping list and declare victory with one pick to spare. Or they could screw around and potentially lose out on a guy they really wanted. At least when compared to the alternatives. Similar explanation for taking Ridley in the 3rd last year...he was the last item to check off the list and there is value is getting your draft strategy executed to completion rather than getting cute and regretting it.
And if these ARE the facts then it doesn't matter what the mediots think or us, for that matter. But if they are true, then our expectations for Wilson should rise as well. Players picked in the 2nd round are expected to be starters by their 2nd or 3rd season.
I would imagine the Pats see Wilson taking a good number of snaps beginning next year at the latest. If Chung is re-signed and Gregory turns into a phenomenal success, why does Wilson have to displace one of them as "starter" to be valuable?
For this season for this pick to be deemed a success, Wilson must be an active ST's player and a rotational player in a couple of sub packages getting at least 10-20 snaps in the regular defense per game.
Why? The goal should be to get Wilson to reach his potential as quickly as possible. The best way to do that may be through practice and physical development, with limited game snaps. If he is Ed Reed in year 2, nobody is going to care how many games he played in year 1.
The measure of success is going to be how he responds when needed...whether that be game #1 or year #2. I'm hoping Chung, Gregory and Barrett stay healthy and kick butt this year. I'm hoping Ebner is an eraser in the kicking game and claims the 4th active safety spot. If Wilson is called upon this year for whatever reason, I agree he should be able to play well enough to not be a weak link on the defense.
Next year, the expectations for Wilson goes up substantially. He should be able to play his way onto the field regardless of the depth chart ahead of him. At the end of games with an opposing QB needing to pass their team to victory, Wilson better be on the field and he better not be picked on. It would be great if he reaches that level this year...particularly when the weather is colder and the stakes are higher.