I posted this in the draft forum about a week ago but it seems to fit here. Unfortunately my plan has already had to change with Zac Robinson signing with the Falcons.
I’ve been going back and forth about which is the best direction for the Pats to take depending on how the draft plays out. While I’m sure we all agree that if a franchise QB is there at #3 we should take him, the question is how do you feel about these guys as franchise QB’s?
If Caleb Williams were to be there at 3 I would take him in a heartbeat. While he has his flaws and isn’t quite the generational QB he was once seen as, I think he is the one guy I think can truly be a franchise guy. Unfortunately, I think he is going #1 to the Bears. Would I trade up to #1 for him? No. Simply because I feel what it would cost to go get him at #1 would prohibit us from putting the talent around him to give him a chance to succeed. A lot of talented QB’s have been ruined by poor teams. With the haul it would cost to get Caleb Williams and the lack of talent we currently have on offense; I think we would be setting him up to fail.
Drake Maye is a guy I like but don’t love. I see all the physical tools are there but I just feel something is off. I question his decision making sometimes and I worry about him reading through his progressions. Funnily enough I had a similar feeling about Justin Herbert and I’ve been proven to be very wrong about that. So if Maye is there at 3 I think he would be very hard to pass up. Unfortunately, Washington is almost certainly going QB at 2 so I don’t think Maye falls to us either.
So this is where the draft starts for us at #3. Jayden Daniels vs MHJ.
As much as we need a QB I just don’t believe in Jayden Daniels. I like the arm, I like the athleticism, I love the production. I just don’t believe in him as an NFL QB, not at #3 overall anyway. I have big questions over his timing and I just feel he is going to struggle at the next level. As we have seen with Mac Jones, playing QB in college is much easier when you are throwing to an elite WR group. I also have major concerns about his frame and being able to hold up long term as a runner. I could easily see Daniels light it up early in his career and then flame out quickly as the physicality takes a toll on his body. If he were available a bit later in the 1st round he might be worth a flier because he is physically gifted, but #3 is far too rich for me.
So that leaves us with MHJ. The elite, generational talent who is the best player in this draft and a major need. Easy pick right? Not so fast. While I love MHJ and I believe he certainly is the best player in the draft and probably the best WR since Megatron. I just don’t think this is the best way to build a team, especially one that is so devoid of talent. With our cap space and draft capital we have a chance to turn this team around quickly. I just don’t think throwing all of our eggs in one basket on a WR is the way to do it.
So this would be my plan. I know many will disagree and a lot of you will hate it. This is just how I feel we could best turn this team around quickly, while also building a sustainable winner.
1. Hire Zac Robinson (Rams QB coach and passing game coordinator) as new Offensive Coordinator.
At this stage I think the best case scenario is Tanner Engstrand from the Lions who I think would be a great fit. I really like what Detroit's offense has done under Ben Johnson and Tanner Engstrand has been a big part of that. Not only as the Passing Game Coordination but also the TE coach. Unfortunately with Ben Johnson likely getting the Commanders HC job, I think Engstrand with either go with him to Wash or stays and takes over the Lions OC role.
Beyond that the only other option that excites me is Jerrod Johnson from the Texans. He doesn't have a whole lot of experience but he did a fantastic job with CJ Stroud and people rave about him. Ideally we could get him as a QB coach and passing game coordinator and pair him with someone like Nick Caley. Unfortunately I think he has so much interest around the league and it wouldn't be enough of a promotion to leave CJ Stroud. So if it came down to it I would take the risk and hand him the keys as OC if necessary. I think this offense needs a spark, needs some creativity and needs some new blood. He has worked with a lot of people from the Shanahan/McVay coaching tree so he offers a really different perspective than we have had for decades. Plus we know he can coach up a QB.
Ultimately I think we end up with Nick Caley as our OC. My only hope is he learnt enough during his year at the Rams to being a fresh, new approach. I would love a creative, QB friendly, McVay type passing attack with a powerful gap blocking run game.
2. Re-sign OL Michael Onwenu
I know there is a lot of discussion in the main forum if the Pats will or should pay Onwenu. For me its simple, he is your best offensive player, you have a ton of cap space and you don’t have many talented players coming through the pipeline that will require big money to keep. The cap is only going to keep going up so pay the man his money, he deserves it. There is a lot of talk of OT vs OG but I don’t think it matters too much. The top OG’s (Nelson and Lindstrom) are getting $20mil a year anyway. I would look to come a bit under that and go something like 5yrs $95mil and play him at RG.
3. Trade 2025 2nd + OG Cole Strange to Chi for QB Justin Fields
I know this move will be hated but I don’t know what better QB options there are out there. If Williams and Maye go 1,2 there aren’t any other great options. I like Bo Nix and I’m intrigued by Penix, but not where they are going to be drafted. For the price and the upside I think taking a shot at Justin Fields might be the best option. He is under contract for 2 more years, one of which is very cheap. A change of scenery could do wonders, look at Jared Goff, Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Even his fifth year option of $23.3 million is cheap for starting QB standards.
This is where the new OC and QB coach are hugely important. I don’t think the Bears did Fields any favors and I think he still has a lot of upside. Along with a good arm he also offers elite athleticism at the position and a threat with his legs that this team hasn’t had for a long time. Get him under center, throwing off of play action and rolling out of the pocket and I think he can be a really good NFL QB. I think Jerrod Johnson could do wonders with Fields just like he did CJ Stroud.
Strange has been solid yet unspectacular as a pro. I have my concerns, especially about his pass protection, however he would give Chicago an immediate upgrade on the interior OL. With Sow surprising as a rookie, moving him back to his natural LG position that he played in college could make Strange expendable. I also think Sow would also be the better fit in a predominantly gap blocking scheme that I would look to run.
- Re-sign S Kyle Dugger. Miguel’s proposed total value of $40.5 million over three years with $27.66 million guaranteed seems fair. First year cap hit around $9mil
- Try to bring back WR Kendrick Bourne, TE Hunter Henry, TE Pharaoh Brown, OLB Josh Uche and ILB Mack Wilson on team friendly deals.
- I also wouldn’t be opposed to having Trent Brown back on a 1 year deal for depth
- I would love to bring in Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman but I think both guys will likely get tagged.
The Draft
Outside of QB, the biggest needs for the Pats in 2024 are OT and WR. Luckily this draft is absolutely loaded at both positions so I think we could move around the board and fill both holes.
Top 10 Mock Draft
1(1). Chi- QB- Caleb Williams- USC
1(2). WSH- QB- Drake Maye- UNC
*Trade: NE trades 1(3) to NYG for 1(6) + 2(39) + 2(47) + 2025 2nd
1(3). NYG- QB- Jayden Daniels- LSU
The Giants need a QB and Daboll needs to make a move to save his job. Trading up for the last of the ‘top tier’ QB’s could be just the type of desperate move the Giants make, especially if they don’t have to give up a future 1.
I know this is a lot of Pats fans worst nightmares, trading down from a prime pick, passing on a QB and MHJ. However, a small trade down with a desperate team for excellent value would leave the Pats at #6 with the guarantee of one of the blue chip LT’s being on the board. Plus the extra ammo to move around the board and help fill the other major holes on offense.
Where did this trade value come from? This is almost identical to the 2018 trade that saw the Jets move up from 6 to 3 to take Sam Darnold. That should be the precedent for this trade.
*Trade: Ari trades 1(4) to Chi for 1(9) + 3(75) + 2025 1st
1(4). Chi- WR- Marvin Harrison Jr- OSU
Arizona could take MHJ, or they could trade down, grab one of the other top tier WR and get an extra 1st round pick next year. This would leave them loaded with two 1’s, a 2 and four 3’s this year, plus an extra 1 next year.
After trading away Fields for a 2025 pick, the Bears would feel more comfortable making a big move and going after MHJ. It’s a gutsy play to make the Bears relevant again and give Caleb Williams a #1 WR. This trade value is based off the 2014 Bills trade, moving from 9 to 4 for Sammy Watkins with a little extra added value for the MHJ bump.
1(5). SD- WR- Malik Nabers- LSU
1(6)- NE- OT- Joe Alt- ND
After trading down for a haul of picks, the Patriots get their franchise LT. In my opinion Alt is the best OT in this loaded draft and should be a cornerstone for the Pats for the next decade. At 6’8” 325lbs he is an absolute stud in both pass blocking and the run game. With the trade down, even if the Chargers took Alt at #5 we could still get Olu Fashanu at #6 who is right up there with Alt as 1a and 1b OT’s in this draft.
1(7)- Tenn- OT- Olu Fashanu- PSU
1(8)- Atl- EDGE- Dallas Turner- ALA
1(9)- Ari- WR- Rome Odunze- Wash
1(10)- NYJ- OT- Taliese Fuaga- Oregon State
Trade: Patriots trade 2(39) + 2025 1st to LA Rams for 1(19) + 3(83)
1(19)- RT- JC Latham- Alabama
This will be another controversial move that I think a lot of people will hate. I understand economically trading future picks is poor value, however, with the moves I have made already (Justin Fields) I feel that adding talent now while we would have that two-year window with Fields would be more beneficial. Especially because this is a loaded class and Latham would be a top 10 pick in most other years. If Latham were off the board I would still feel really good about Teliese Fuaga or Amarius Mims at this spot. Latham is my #5 OT in this draft so I feel he is most likely to be here.
At 6’6” 360lbs, Latham is a monstrous human being. He is probably the strongest OL in this draft and would pair perfectly with Onwenu on the right side of the Pats OL. A bookend of Alt and Latham suddenly gives the Pats a huge boost on the OL and could turn a weakness into a strength.
Trade: Patriots trade 2(34) + 3(68) to Phi 1(22)
1(22)- WR- Brian Thomas Jr- LSU
After solidifying the OL already its time to add some weapons. This WR class is loaded with a huge variety of different players. The guy I like the most at this spot is Brian Thomas Jr, the touchdown machine from LSU. I think in a lot of years he would easily be a top 15 pick, maybe top 10. He has incredible size, quickness and fluidity that makes him so special. His release is so effortless and he creates separation better than any WR in this class. The way he moves reminds me of Randy Moss. He is just so smooth, he just eats up space on DB’s and flies right past them. He doesn’t have the hands of Randy Moss though and that is the one thing that drops him down a bit. He isn’t a natural hands catcher, however he creates so much separation it doesn’t really matter. He is a chain moving playmaker that I see as a faster, more explosive Tee Higgins. If he weren’t lined up opposite Nabers he probably would have caught 25 TD’s last year because he was open that often.
If Thomas is off the board I also love Oregon WR Troy Franklin at this spot.
2(47)- DT- D’Vondre Sweat- Texas
It’s not all just offense. With a linebacker as the new HC, what is the one thing linebackers love more than anything else? A big fella in the middle taking up blockers and freeing them up to make plays. Davon Godchaux will turn 30 this year and is in the last year of his contract (could save $8mil releasing him). Providing a long-term presence next to Barmore gives the defense a foundation to build on for years to come.
Sweat is a humongous human being at 6’4” 362lbs. He is extremely quick and agile for a man his size and dominates in the middle. The reigning Outland Trophy winner and Big 12 defensive player of the year is an elite run defender that offers some upside as a pass rusher. NT’s are undervalued in the modern NFL but Sweat could be a cornerstone player.
TRADE: Patriots trade 3(83) + 5(138) to Atl for 3(74)
3(74)- WR- Brenden Rice- USC
This shows how loaded this WR class is. Don’t think this is a pick based off the name (Jerry’s son), Brenden Rice is a legit WR prospect in his own right and a guy I love. He already plays like a veteran and does all the little things right. He has an explosive first step, a variety of different release moves, understands leverage and has such active hands. He has prototype size, should test really well athletically (was a track guy) and just knows how to play the position. I wouldn’t be shocked if he worked his way up to the late 1st round, but at the moment he is a steal in the 3rd. I think he is going to be a really, really good #2 WR in the NFL.
Rice was Caleb Williams favorite target and excels when the play is extended. This would make him a perfect pair with Justin Fields who is excellent at extending the play and pushing the ball down the field. Rice and Thomas, along with Pop Douglas, Boutte and hopefully Kendrick Bourne is suddenly a lot more explosive WR group than we have seen in many years.
4(104)- I would look to trade this pick into 2025 if we can get a future 3rd for it.
I know this wont be a popular approach. Trading away future assets is the anti-Belichick. And Justin Fields won't be a popular move with the fans. I just want to see the Pats be really decisive and aggressive this offseason. We have seen what the passiveness of the Red Sox has done to that organisation. I think this draft pairs up perfectly with our needs and its a great opportunity to make some big moves to rebuild the team.
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