Wilfork#75
In the Starting Line-Up
- Joined
- Sep 27, 2010
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The direction the Patriots take this off-season will obviously be completely dictated by what happens with Brady. I don't believe the dynasty is over yet and I'm not ready to settle for just being competitive. I may just be a spoiled Pats fan, but while Brady can still play my focus is on winning Lombardi trophies and not just settling for Division Titles and playoff appearances. I would do whatever necessary (within reason) to bring Brady back for one more legitimate run at a couple more rings.
To get Brady to return to New England I think he is going to need some assurances that we are going to put the weapons around him to succeed. I don't buy that he won't take some sort of home town discount, he has always been a team player and I think he will take a fair deal so we can put the right people around him.
The issue I see is that with a short window with TB12, adding rookie weapons around Brady isn't going to cut it. We know how difficult it is for WR's to gain Brady's trust, especially young WR's. Rookie TE's almost never have a major impact in year 1 so I don't think we can rely on draft picks to make a significant contribution in 2020. As a draft nerd I never thought I would say this but I think the best option is to look to trade some of our draft capital for veterans at WR and TE. Cap space is going to be an issue, especially bringing Brady back but we will have to make some sacrifices with our own free agents.
Current Cap Space- $29,224,286 (as per Miguel)
Re-Sign
QB Tom Brady- 2 years $50mil ($5.75mil signing bonus, signed before March 18)
1st year cap hit $28.875mil (currently $13.5mil)
This is based on Miguel's proposed contact and to me this is a no-brainer. $25mil a year is reasonable for both parties. Brady's cap hit is going to be at least $13.5mil in 2020 regardless of what direction we go so the additional $15.375mil is worth bringing the GOAT back.
S Devin McCourty- 1 year $8mil
DMac wants to go around one more time and we can see from his play in 2019 that he still has something left in the tank. With no clear replacement I think its worth bringing him back on a 1 year deal
ST Matthew Slater- 1 year $2.5mil
Like McCourty above, Slater can still play and is an important leader on this team.
LB Elandon Roberts- 2 years $2.5mil
Year 1 cap hit $1mil
With Collins and Van Noy likely to depart via free agency, retaining Roberts will help with stability, even if he has his limitations
DT Danny Shelton- 2 years $8mil ($2mil signing bonus)
Year 1 cap hit $3.75mil
While he might not be a pro bowl calibre player, Shelton is a solid run stuffer in the middle and an important piece to retain
C James Ferentz- 2 years $2mil
Year 1 cap hit $900,000
With Thuney and possibly Karras both priced out of the Pats range, keeping familiar, veteran depth is important. Ideally we can find an upgrade over Ferentz as a backup but its better to have him than not.
RFA DT Adam Butler- first right of refusal tender- 1 year $2,144,000
Solid player, would like him back at a reasonable price. If someone signs him away on a bigger offer I would wish him the best of luck.
Sign FA
WR Danny Amendola- 1 year $4mil
Gaining Brady's trust is extremely difficult. Amendola brings familiarity and would take the pressure off Edelman as Brady's safety blanket. He had a good year in Detroit in 2019 and has always come up clutch for the Pats
TE Dwayne Allen- 1 year $1.4mil
One of our biggest weaknesses in 2019 was the blocking from our TE's. Allen is an excellent blocker, has experience with the Pats and should be fairly cheap coming off an injury last season. I think he would make an excellent #3 blocking TE.
Cut
CB Jason McCourty (-$4.5mil)
TE Matt Lacosse (-$1.4mil)
Extend
CB Stephon Gilmore (-$7.5mil in 2020)
LB Dont'a Hightower (-$5.6mil in 2020)
Trade
Patriots trade 2020 1st (#23) and S Duron Harmon to Cleveland for WR Odell Beckham Jr and TE David Njoku
Brady could definitely use a legitimate #1 WR and I think Beckham is the best option potentially available. We know BB likes OBJ and has tried to acquire him in the past, and Odell has shown interest in the Patriots. Now might be the perfect time to make a bold move. If BB was willing to trade a 1st round pick for Brandon Cooks, I think he would jump at the chance to get OBJ. One of the big benefits of going after OBJ is he doesn't have any guaranteed money left on his contract. So after acquiring him we can easily re-structure his contract to lower his cap hit for 2020. After re-signing McCourty, Harmon might be a luxury we can't afford at his current cap hit. Moving him to take a shot at a high upside reclamation project like Njoku could pay dividends. TE is a huge need and Njoku has flashed big time potential as a pass catcher, maybe a change of scenery is what he needs.
Why would Cleveland do this? With DePodesta still having a lot of influence in Cleveland, you know analytics are going to play a big part in their team building. Are they going to want to pay big money to two WR? Landry has better chemistry with Mayfield and Beckham has no dead cap hit so it could make sense moving him if they can get value. With a new HC and GM they are going to want to establish a new culture, are they going to be happy with his antics of his antics of the past few months? His value is down slightly from last year so the #23 pick seems fair. This allows them to solidify their trenches in the first round or possibly even trade that pick to Washington for Trent Williams.
Njoku was very unhappy last season and has said he would have demanded a trade if Freddie Kitchens had returned. Is he still disgruntled with the organization? Is he a poor fit in Stefanski's run first offense? I don't think there is any way Cleveland picks up his 5th year option so why not move on now and get some value for him? While he certainly flashed potential he hasn't done much in his 3 years in the league to create a lot of trade value. The Brown's have a massive hole at Safety and Harmon is a veteran starter that could immediately step in and allow Cleveland to use its draft resources in other areas.
Harmon (-$4.25mil)
Beckham $4.25mil (re-structure saves $10mil in 2020)
Njoku $1,763,910
Trading away Harmon covers the 2020 cap hit for OBJ after re-structuring. Njoku would take up less that $1.2mil in cap space after pushing someone else off the roster.
Patriots trade conditional 2021 3rd to Tampa Bay for TE OJ Howard
Howard is a perfect fit for the Pats as a well rounded TE that can block and catch the ball. It's really tough to gauge his value because he is extremely talented but his production through his first 3 years doesn't warrant a high pick as compensation. Like Njoku, I don't see TB picking up his 5th year option and they don't utilize him very well anyway. I think a conditional pick for 2021 makes a lot of sense for both sides. If Howard is active for at least 12 games the Pats give up a 3rd round pick. If he makes the Pro Bowl or All Pro it bumps up to a 2nd round pick. If he is active for less than 12 games it drops to a 4th round pick.
Having a well rounded TE like Howard, an athletic pass catcher like Njoku and a blocker like Allen would be an enormous upgrade over our 2019 TE's.
Howard $1,977,936
Starting Cap Space $29,224,286
Total Cap Additions $47,060,000
Total Cap Subtractions (-$23,250,000)
Minus Rule of 51 (-$5,343,000)
Total Cap Space $10,757,286
This leaves us with a little over $10mil before the draft to add some veteran pieces and leave some space for mid season moves. Because we wouldn't have a 1st or 2nd round pick we shouldn't need any additional space to sign our draft picks, it may actually save us some money at cut downs. We have a few grievances pending with Hernandez and Antonio Brown which could possibly free up some extra cap space and there are also some other moves or scenarios in which we can free up cap space although unlikely:
Cutting Burkhead (-$3mil)
Cutting Gostkowski (-$3.862mil)
Trading/cutting Sanu (-$6.5mil)
Cannon retires (-$3.783mil)
Andrews retires (-3.4mil)
Develin retires (-$1.25mil)
To get Brady to return to New England I think he is going to need some assurances that we are going to put the weapons around him to succeed. I don't buy that he won't take some sort of home town discount, he has always been a team player and I think he will take a fair deal so we can put the right people around him.
The issue I see is that with a short window with TB12, adding rookie weapons around Brady isn't going to cut it. We know how difficult it is for WR's to gain Brady's trust, especially young WR's. Rookie TE's almost never have a major impact in year 1 so I don't think we can rely on draft picks to make a significant contribution in 2020. As a draft nerd I never thought I would say this but I think the best option is to look to trade some of our draft capital for veterans at WR and TE. Cap space is going to be an issue, especially bringing Brady back but we will have to make some sacrifices with our own free agents.
Current Cap Space- $29,224,286 (as per Miguel)
Re-Sign
QB Tom Brady- 2 years $50mil ($5.75mil signing bonus, signed before March 18)
1st year cap hit $28.875mil (currently $13.5mil)
This is based on Miguel's proposed contact and to me this is a no-brainer. $25mil a year is reasonable for both parties. Brady's cap hit is going to be at least $13.5mil in 2020 regardless of what direction we go so the additional $15.375mil is worth bringing the GOAT back.
S Devin McCourty- 1 year $8mil
DMac wants to go around one more time and we can see from his play in 2019 that he still has something left in the tank. With no clear replacement I think its worth bringing him back on a 1 year deal
ST Matthew Slater- 1 year $2.5mil
Like McCourty above, Slater can still play and is an important leader on this team.
LB Elandon Roberts- 2 years $2.5mil
Year 1 cap hit $1mil
With Collins and Van Noy likely to depart via free agency, retaining Roberts will help with stability, even if he has his limitations
DT Danny Shelton- 2 years $8mil ($2mil signing bonus)
Year 1 cap hit $3.75mil
While he might not be a pro bowl calibre player, Shelton is a solid run stuffer in the middle and an important piece to retain
C James Ferentz- 2 years $2mil
Year 1 cap hit $900,000
With Thuney and possibly Karras both priced out of the Pats range, keeping familiar, veteran depth is important. Ideally we can find an upgrade over Ferentz as a backup but its better to have him than not.
RFA DT Adam Butler- first right of refusal tender- 1 year $2,144,000
Solid player, would like him back at a reasonable price. If someone signs him away on a bigger offer I would wish him the best of luck.
Sign FA
WR Danny Amendola- 1 year $4mil
Gaining Brady's trust is extremely difficult. Amendola brings familiarity and would take the pressure off Edelman as Brady's safety blanket. He had a good year in Detroit in 2019 and has always come up clutch for the Pats
TE Dwayne Allen- 1 year $1.4mil
One of our biggest weaknesses in 2019 was the blocking from our TE's. Allen is an excellent blocker, has experience with the Pats and should be fairly cheap coming off an injury last season. I think he would make an excellent #3 blocking TE.
Cut
CB Jason McCourty (-$4.5mil)
TE Matt Lacosse (-$1.4mil)
Extend
CB Stephon Gilmore (-$7.5mil in 2020)
LB Dont'a Hightower (-$5.6mil in 2020)
Trade
Patriots trade 2020 1st (#23) and S Duron Harmon to Cleveland for WR Odell Beckham Jr and TE David Njoku
Brady could definitely use a legitimate #1 WR and I think Beckham is the best option potentially available. We know BB likes OBJ and has tried to acquire him in the past, and Odell has shown interest in the Patriots. Now might be the perfect time to make a bold move. If BB was willing to trade a 1st round pick for Brandon Cooks, I think he would jump at the chance to get OBJ. One of the big benefits of going after OBJ is he doesn't have any guaranteed money left on his contract. So after acquiring him we can easily re-structure his contract to lower his cap hit for 2020. After re-signing McCourty, Harmon might be a luxury we can't afford at his current cap hit. Moving him to take a shot at a high upside reclamation project like Njoku could pay dividends. TE is a huge need and Njoku has flashed big time potential as a pass catcher, maybe a change of scenery is what he needs.
Why would Cleveland do this? With DePodesta still having a lot of influence in Cleveland, you know analytics are going to play a big part in their team building. Are they going to want to pay big money to two WR? Landry has better chemistry with Mayfield and Beckham has no dead cap hit so it could make sense moving him if they can get value. With a new HC and GM they are going to want to establish a new culture, are they going to be happy with his antics of his antics of the past few months? His value is down slightly from last year so the #23 pick seems fair. This allows them to solidify their trenches in the first round or possibly even trade that pick to Washington for Trent Williams.
Njoku was very unhappy last season and has said he would have demanded a trade if Freddie Kitchens had returned. Is he still disgruntled with the organization? Is he a poor fit in Stefanski's run first offense? I don't think there is any way Cleveland picks up his 5th year option so why not move on now and get some value for him? While he certainly flashed potential he hasn't done much in his 3 years in the league to create a lot of trade value. The Brown's have a massive hole at Safety and Harmon is a veteran starter that could immediately step in and allow Cleveland to use its draft resources in other areas.
Harmon (-$4.25mil)
Beckham $4.25mil (re-structure saves $10mil in 2020)
Njoku $1,763,910
Trading away Harmon covers the 2020 cap hit for OBJ after re-structuring. Njoku would take up less that $1.2mil in cap space after pushing someone else off the roster.
Patriots trade conditional 2021 3rd to Tampa Bay for TE OJ Howard
Howard is a perfect fit for the Pats as a well rounded TE that can block and catch the ball. It's really tough to gauge his value because he is extremely talented but his production through his first 3 years doesn't warrant a high pick as compensation. Like Njoku, I don't see TB picking up his 5th year option and they don't utilize him very well anyway. I think a conditional pick for 2021 makes a lot of sense for both sides. If Howard is active for at least 12 games the Pats give up a 3rd round pick. If he makes the Pro Bowl or All Pro it bumps up to a 2nd round pick. If he is active for less than 12 games it drops to a 4th round pick.
Having a well rounded TE like Howard, an athletic pass catcher like Njoku and a blocker like Allen would be an enormous upgrade over our 2019 TE's.
Howard $1,977,936
Starting Cap Space $29,224,286
Total Cap Additions $47,060,000
Total Cap Subtractions (-$23,250,000)
Minus Rule of 51 (-$5,343,000)
Total Cap Space $10,757,286
This leaves us with a little over $10mil before the draft to add some veteran pieces and leave some space for mid season moves. Because we wouldn't have a 1st or 2nd round pick we shouldn't need any additional space to sign our draft picks, it may actually save us some money at cut downs. We have a few grievances pending with Hernandez and Antonio Brown which could possibly free up some extra cap space and there are also some other moves or scenarios in which we can free up cap space although unlikely:
Cutting Burkhead (-$3mil)
Cutting Gostkowski (-$3.862mil)
Trading/cutting Sanu (-$6.5mil)
Cannon retires (-$3.783mil)
Andrews retires (-3.4mil)
Develin retires (-$1.25mil)