BGC 2024 QB/PTP Thread

[State]

Caleb Williams is going 1.

Then JJ McCarthy is likely going 2 to the Redskins.

So we’re going with the LSU QB I suspect unless we trade down. If it goes down like this, it’ll be mentioned ad nauseum that this is what BB would’ve done.

 

[Jim Beankie]

A reminder to myself to have patience with these QBs. Here are pretty much all the SB era HoF QBs and their 1st seasons as starters. Marino's the only guy who had success off the bat without redshirting for the most part.

Aikman 0-11, 7-8
Bradshaw 3-5, 5-8
Elway 4-6
Favre DNS, 8-5 ***
Fouts 0-5-1, 3-8, 2-7, 5-8
Griese 3-7, 5-7-1, 2-6-1
JKelly 4-12, 6-6
PManning 3-13
Marino 7-2 ***
Montana 0-1, 2-5
WMoon 3-13, 4-10, 5-10
Namath 3-5-1, 5-6-2
Stabler DNS, 1-0, 0-1
Staubach 1-0, 2-1
Tarkenton 2-8, 2-11-1, 4-8-1
Warner DNS, 13-3 ***
SYoung 1-4, 2-12

Bonus:
TB12 DNS, 11-3
Mahomes 1-0, 12-4
Brees DNS, 8-8, 2-9
Rodgers DNS, DNS, DNS, 6-10

 

[Jim Beankie]

Crazy that the only time 6 QBs were picked in the 1st round, the 6th one was Marino.

 

[captain stone]

Crazy that the only time 6 QBs were picked in the 1st round, the 6th one was Marino.

Thanks for the remindah!

 

[State]

I had read elsewhere that Spencer Rattler had 14 different starters on his OL last season at USC. That’s the Gamecocks.

Came across it again.

 

[DaBruinz]

I had read elsewhere that Spencer Rattler had 14 different starters on his OL last season at USC. That’s the Gamecocks.

Came across it again.

I wouldn't mind Rattler in the 2nd if the Pats take an OT in the 1st after a trade back..

As much as I'd love to see them trade with AZ. and then against with Minny. I can't be too greedy.. LOL.

I think that the Pats trading with Minny is their only chance. Whether or not it would include a certain WR or not remains to be seen.

 

[State]

Love this guy.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Caleb Williams is going 1.

Then JJ McCarthy is likely going 2 to the Redskins.

So we’re going with the LSU QB I suspect unless we trade down. If it goes down like this, it’ll be mentioned ad nauseum that this is what BB would’ve done.

No chance McCarthy goes 2

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I’m liking Penix more and more.

 

[Jim Beankie]

I am all aboard the double dipping on QB with Joe Milton Day 3 train. After watching a couple of his worst 2024 games (all snaps), I don't get the inaccurate label. Dude threw 66.7% against Top 25 teams his last 2 years. I just see drops by mediocre receivers and PIs. I see a lot of really good short throws down the line or across the middle. Yeah he's made mistakes (locking into first read sometimes... ok maybe more than that), but they all have. Not gonna get into footwork because I can't evaluate that.

I also rewatched the Combine, and I couldn't believe not only did he throw 70 actual air yards a couple of times*, but he hit these guys multiple times in stride - guys he wasn't familiar with.

I have a a feeling someone's gonna take him "early" - say 4th round. I'd be comfortable with a 6th.

*JAllen only got to 67yds in the Combine but did 77yds at his pro day, but didn't really have anyone catch much of his long throws. Milton supposedly got to 80yds in his pro day - didn't see it so I won't believe until I see actual tape of it. They say Penix got up to 75yds in his pro day but I just saw about 67 actual air yards.

Edit: Plus he's got a Michigan degree. Pretty sure he graduated in 3 years.

 

[cstjohn17]

A reminder to myself to have patience with these QBs. Here are pretty much all the SB era HoF QBs and their 1st seasons as starters. Marino's the only guy who had success off the bat without redshirting for the most part.

Great breakdown, thank you.

Let’s shoot for the moon! Assume the QB we take a 3 will be HOF caliber but the first couple of years will be rough.

 

[BTTA]

Maye with #3.
OT/WR in 2nd and 3rd rounds.
Best of the remaining QB's in 4th round (Rattler? Milton?)
BPA rest of the way.

 

[AQPE]

• I’ll be happy with Maye or Daniels, or a trade down that nets them a “second tier” QB prospect plus a better OT or WR prospect than hey would likely be able to draft at #34.

• QB is the #1 need IMHO but LT1 is at a crisis level and WR1 nearly so.

• I am 100% OK with trusting the judgement of the new regime regarding their decisions here. If they think a LT1 or WR1 prospect is the best option for the 1st round I’m onboard.

• Given my “druthers” I’d like to see them pick a QB at #3 and trade up into the 1st round to get an OT that is capable of taking the LT1 spot or a WR prospect that is capable of becoming a WR1 even if that means waiting 1 season for that to happen (such as what I think the Stillers did with Broderick Jones). Doing that would almost certainly mean giving up #34 and #68, perhaps more. I’d be OK with that to gain the possibility of addressing the two biggest (non-QB) needs they have right now.

• I would be happy with Nix or Penix at #34 or through a trade up if that meant also addressing LT or WR with a high end prospect. I’m not a fan of Rattler who is not a good athlete (we just witnessed what that’s like). I’d prefer Zappe or Roarke to him. Milton, however, is quite intriguing as a later round pick.

 

[State]

• QB is the #1 need IMHO but LT1 is at a crisis level and WR1 nearly so.

Bump.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

• I’ll be happy with Maye or Daniels, or a trade down that nets them a “second tier” QB prospect plus a better OT or WR prospect than hey would likely be able to draft at #34.

• QB is the #1 need IMHO but LT1 is at a crisis level and WR1 nearly so.

• I am 100% OK with trusting the judgement of the new regime regarding their decisions here. If they think a LT1 or WR1 prospect is the best option for the 1st round I’m onboard.

• Given my “druthers” I’d like to see them pick a QB at #3 and trade up into the 1st round to get an OT that is capable of taking the LT1 spot or a WR prospect that is capable of becoming a WR1 even if that means waiting 1 season for that to happen (such as what I think the Stillers did with Broderick Jones). Doing that would almost certainly mean giving up #34 and #68, perhaps more. I’d be OK with that to gain the possibility of addressing the two biggest (non-QB) needs they have right now.

• I would be happy with Nix or Penix at #34 or through a trade up if that meant also addressing LT or WR with a high end prospect. I’m not a fan of Rattler who is not a good athlete (we just witnessed what that’s like). I’d prefer Zappe or Roarke to him. Milton, however, is quite intriguing as a later round pick.

If we take a QB at 3, it feels like our 34 & 68 picks aren’t quite high enough to get the premium OT and WR we want. We can get a very good WR at 34, but 68 is too low for either WR or OT, it has to be 50 or higher.

 

[Patriot Missile]

If we take a QB at 3, it feels like our 34 & 68 picks aren’t quite high enough to get the premium OT and WR we want. We can get a very good WR at 34, but 68 is too low for either WR or OT, it has to be 50 or higher.

We’ll see how it plays out. We know there will probably be 5 maybe even 6 QBs taken in the first round, you combine that with the defensive players and wr’s taken Off the board and there’s certainly a chance a good OT could fall. Always seems to be a guy in the 3rd-6th round that breaks out once he gets to the pro’s. Just do your homework and identify those types.

 

[Jim Beankie]

I don't know how I got here since I completely dismissed him until a few days ago, but Michael Bishop Joe Milton is one of my draft Beankies (late round draft pick potential steal - but please NOT the only QB taken if this were to happen). I watched all of his 2023 snaps, his horrendous Senior Bowl, and some previous season snaps. What makes this irrationality worse is that the guy reminds me of a slightly better version of 2020 Cam on the Pats. He even did the darn Superman celebration once or twice after a TD run. Some notes before I take time off from football before the draft because I've totally lost it:

- I saw really good decision making overall. Surprisingly very few dumb throws. Stayed comfortable in the pocket moving around avoiding sacks and didsn't panic (this is not what happened in the Senior Bowl, though - woof). Seemed to go through his progressions - hardly saw the "locks on 1st read" issue.
- Has a lot of speed but doesn't seem to run unless he had to - reached 21.3mph on an 81yd TD run which would be faster than any NFL QB run in the NextGenStats era. Take with a grain of salt due to a different measuring system.
- I've never seen so many long throws per game. Seemed like at least five 60 air yard throws (maxed at around 72yds in game end of half heave) every game.
- His Comp % is higher than his reputation because of sooooo many WR screens / throws down the line / flat - quite accurate with those. It was VERY refreshing to see him throw this type of throw compared to how dreadfully slowly Mac would throw the same thing. Estimating a DB would be 1.5-2yd further with a Milton throw versus Mac throw based on calculations, giving the WR space to work.
- Surprising number of batted balls. Weird.
- Holy crap SO MANY DROPS WOW - even non fastball ones - just poor concentration on the receivers. That and so many uncalled blatant PIs. No wonder his 20+ air yd stat is the poop.
- Frustratingly inconsistent (well known but can confirm), capable of making incredible thread the needle intermediate throws (even with touch!) but with those came a lot of slight misfires, but he seemed to improve as the season progressed. He did get sidetracked by a very slight knee injury in Week 5 and the loss of his WR1 around that time as well. 9 starts in 5 years and then 12 last year, so he really has not had much game experience.
- Would make a great long term backup. Apparently a smart guy and a natural leader, although may be too laid back - Seems to lack a competitive fire
- That being said, he has almost all the tools, and if he ever figures it out...

EDIT: I rewatched his Senior Bowl snaps was actually encouraged by what I saw, big warts and all.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Ex-Giant Kurt Warner: 'Nearly impossible' to scout college quarterbacks

Ex-New York Giants QB and Pro Football Hall of Famer, Kurt Warner, says it’s “nearly impossible” to accurately scout college quarterbacks.

giantswire.usatoday.com

 

[Patriot Missile]

I don't know how I got here since I completely dismissed him until a few days ago, but Michael Bishop Joe Milton is one of my draft Beankies (late round draft pick potential steal - but please NOT the only QB taken if this were to happen). I watched all of his 2023 snaps, his horrendous Senior Bowl, and some previous season snaps. What makes this irrationality worse is that the guy reminds me of a slightly better version of 2020 Cam on the Pats. He even did the darn Superman celebration once or twice after a TD run. Some notes before I take time off from football before the draft because I've totally lost it:

- I saw really good decision making overall. Surprisingly very few dumb throws. Stayed comfortable in the pocket moving around avoiding sacks and didsn't panic (this is not what happened in the Senior Bowl, though - woof). Seemed to go through his progressions - hardly saw the "locks on 1st read" issue.
- Has a lot of speed but doesn't seem to run unless he had to - reached 21.3mph on an 81yd TD run which would be faster than any NFL QB run in the NextGenStats era. Take with a grain of salt due to a different measuring system.
- I've never seen so many long throws per game. Seemed like at least five 60 air yard throws (maxed at around 72yds in game end of half heave) every game.
- His Comp % is higher than his reputation because of sooooo many WR screens / throws down the line / flat - quite accurate with those. It was VERY refreshing to see him throw this type of throw compared to how dreadfully slowly Mac would throw the same thing. Estimating a DB would be 1.5-2yd further with a Milton throw versus Mac throw based on calculations, giving the WR space to work.
- Surprising number of batted balls. Weird.
- Holy crap SO MANY DROPS WOW - even non fastball ones - just poor concentration on the receivers. That and so many uncalled blatant PIs. No wonder his 20+ air yd stat is the poop.
- Frustratingly inconsistent (well known but can confirm), capable of making incredible thread the needle intermediate throws (even with touch!) but with those came a lot of slight misfires, but he seemed to improve as the season progressed. He did get sidetracked by a very slight knee injury in Week 5 and the loss of his WR1 around that time as well. 9 starts in 5 years and then 12 last year, so he really has not had much game experience.
- Would make a great long term backup. Apparently a smart guy and a natural leader, although may be too laid back - Seems to lack a competitive fire
- That being said, he has almost all the tools, and if he ever figures it out...

All I saw of him was at the senior bowl. Never watched a game of his otherwise. He didn’t look very good but that was just the most bizarre game with all the opt outs right before the game.

Obviously his arm strength is plus. Anyone got more on him?

 

[Jim Beankie]

All I saw of him was at the senior bowl. Never watched a game of his otherwise. He didn’t look very good but that was just the most bizarre game with all the opt outs right before the game.

Obviously his arm strength is plus. Anyone got more on him?

What got me into this ridiculous rabbit hole was this interesting post by KCSVEN about QB pressures by fault and noticed that Milton's was interestingly low. Then I noticed that my guy TB80 was the OC for Milton in the Senior Bowl, and the Patriots were the first team that Milton spoke with. It's great that he completed 11 of his 13 passes to people, but a huge problem was that 2 of them went to the other team.

Drake Maye would be the IDEAL pick for the Patriots at #3

At this point, I'd be fine with either Maye or Daniels. Either one will be a risk as all rookie QBs are. Both are going to have a steep learning curve in the NFL, but the talent (arm & legs) and processing ability is there. But, the question is - do you think they are better than Mac Jones...

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